Will the real Red Sox please stand up? I repeat, will the real Red Sox please stand up?

geoduck no quahog

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If Dalbec actually grows into the real thing, don't the future Red Sox need to consider switching Dalbec and Devers? I base this on the stuff I used to read about him being a + 3B defender. Then there's Bogaerts, who I think will play out his career at SS, just like his role model. It always seemed to me that having offense at that high value position trumped defense (Nomar aside, I guess).

In any case, a maturing Dalbec is, at minimum, good trade bait.

...and maybe that's where the Red Sox are right now - maximizing trade values to continue re-stocking for 2022 and beyond. Nothing wrong with that.
 

BaseballJones

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The Major Leagues is not a place where ball players go to play until they get confident. If he couldn't do the job (and through mid-August, it was apparent that he really couldn't), he shouldn't have been there. He honestly should have been back in Worcester to get his confidence up, but the Sox didn't have anyone better, so they stuck him there.

And I'm one who likes that Cora gives his players long leashes until they prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that they can't cut the mustard. I think that it pays off more often than not. But Dalbec was complete mess for a vast majority of the year.
I agree. I don't think the deadline had anything to do with Dalbec's improvement. Just like I don't think the deadline had anything to do with "demoralizing" the rest of the team because the front office wouldn't "get them any help". I just think they were overachieving, and then they stopped overachieving and hit a rut at the same time their two main division rivals suddenly stopped losing baseball games.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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If Dalbec actually grows into the real thing, don't the future Red Sox need to consider switching Dalbec and Devers? I base this on the stuff I used to read about him being a + 3B defender. Then there's Bogaerts, who I think will play out his career at SS, just like his role model. It always seemed to me that having offense at that high value position trumped defense (Nomar aside, I guess).

In any case, a maturing Dalbec is, at minimum, good trade bait.

...and maybe that's where the Red Sox are right now - maximizing trade values to continue re-stocking for 2022 and beyond. Nothing wrong with that.
He wasn't a plus defender at 3B. He was average. Limited range and a bit stiff but soft hands and decent footwork. His length made up for his slower reactions. There may have been a time where he appeared better at third than Devers, but Devers has way more room to improve (and has).

Dalbec has all the attributes that typically translate well going from 3B to 1B (think Kevin Youkilis). His poor defense at first this year is a bit inexplicable but fixable with work and experience (he could at least get to passable/slightly above average). Swapping he and Devers defensively probably doesn't actually improve anything, and potentially makes things worse overall.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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The Major Leagues is not a place where ball players go to play until they get confident. If he couldn't do the job (and through mid-August, it was apparent that he really couldn't), he shouldn't have been there. He honestly should have been back in Worcester to get his confidence up, but the Sox didn't have anyone better, so they stuck him there.

And I'm one who likes that Cora gives his players long leashes until they prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that they can't cut the mustard. I think that it pays off more often than not. But Dalbec was complete mess for a vast majority of the year.
Even with his hot streak he's only up to a 99 OPS+ on the year. Combined with his bad defense he's overall been a net negative player. There's still time to improve on his numbers and WAR, but JMOH's point is well worth noting.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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I agree. I don't think the deadline had anything to do with Dalbec's improvement. Just like I don't think the deadline had anything to do with "demoralizing" the rest of the team because the front office wouldn't "get them any help". I just think they were overachieving, and then they stopped overachieving and hit a rut at the same time their two main division rivals suddenly stopped losing baseball games.
I don't disagree with you about the Sox being demoralized. I can get the idea that that might have been one of the reasons why the got swept in Tampa (it happens, I get it) but to say that the entire month is a big long mope session because they didn't get Anthony Rizzo is a bridge too far for me.

Having said that, I do think that for the second year in a row, the FO let the team down. And I'm just hoping that this isn't a trend.
 

joe dokes

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Even with his hot streak he's only up to a 99 OPS+ on the year. Combined with his bad defense he's overall been a net negative player. There's still time to improve on his numbers and WAR, but JMOH's point is well worth noting.
But if we compare his 2nd half to his first half, isn't it like thinking your lottery ticket was a loser, then putting on your glasses and realizing you've won the pot of gold? ;)
 

joe dokes

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:banana: OK that's good, I'll take that burn lol.

If Dalbec were handed a pot of gold he'd immediately fumble it into a landfill. Dude's got hands like feet.
Reminds me of:
https://sabr.org/bioproj/person/marv-throneberry/

Great fielding plays by Marvelous Marv were the exception and not the rule, however. On Casey Stengel’s birthday, the Mets manager received a birthday cake. Throneberry asked Stengel “Why didn’t they give me a cake on my birthday?” to which Stengel replied “We was afraid you’d drop it.”
And now back to our regularly scheduled agita....
 

grimshaw

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The team took a calculated gamble on drafting Fabian. Even though they failed to sign him, it's hardly a disaster because they get to roll the pick forward to a year when there will be more reliable scouting information on next year's prospects. Sometimes you have to take a big swing, and sometimes those swings will miss. If there was a time to do that in the 2nd round, it was this year's draft.
100% The system is deep, but lacks blue chippers. I had no issues with them swinging for the fences either. They are unlikely to draft this high again for a while.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Jack Lopez replacement already?

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The #RedSox today claimed INF Taylor Motter off waivers from the Colorado Rockies.
Well, they're running out of guys to bring up and middle infield is apparently a COVID hotspot with this team (I'm fearful Arauz may be the next to test positive). Unless we want to see Danny Santana at short and Travis Shaw playing second, they need somebody else.
 

chawson

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Here’s the cast of characters that Dalbec has XBH against since his hot streak began on 7/29:

2B: Eli Morgan, Logan Allen, Jordan Lyles, Spencer Watkins, Cesar Valdez, Tayler Saucedo
3B: Dietrich Enns
HR: Luis Patiño, John Gant, Edgar Garcia, Adam Plutko, Cesar Valdez, Ryan Yarbrough

With the exception of Patiño and maybe Yarbrough (who’s a LHP starter who throws 85), these are all back-of-the-bullpen/AAAA-types. I recognize that these guys play in MLB too and the hits certainly count, but I’d like to see him mash some better pitchers.
 

nvalvo

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Here's what I'm looking at with Dalbec.

43960

Baseballsavant tells us a few things about Dalbec:

His K% is one of the very worst in the game: first percentile.
His BB% is also bad: 12th percentile.
As a result, his xBA is pretty bad: 26th percentile. But that is notably better than his plate discipline numbers.
Relatedly, his xwOBA is pretty decent, actually, at 56th percentile, because...
His average exit velocity (87th percentile) and maximum exit velocity (96th percentile) are excellent.

Basically, he has a .325 BABIP, but statcast thinks it should have been a tic higher based on his quality of contact.

As such, his xwOBACON (expected production measuring only the PAs where he makes contact) is among the best in the game, behind guys like Ohtani, Schwarber, Harper, Judge and Votto, and ahead of Gallo, Devers, Vlad Jr., Yordan Alvarez, and Max Muncy.

He just needs to make more contact. A version of Dalbec with a 27% K rate is an All Star — or an AL Rookie of the Month, as we've seen this month. The version with a 40% K rate is unplayably bad.
 

scottyno

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5-3 since they started getting hit with COVID, they had every excuse to tank since then and instead they've gone in the opposite direction
 

YTF

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5-3 since they started getting hit with COVID, they had every excuse to tank since then and instead they've gone in the opposite direction
Not to piss in your Cheerios as this IS a positive thing, but 3-1 vs Cleveland and just down two players I think for the first two.
In four of those five wins the starter went 6 innings or more. Don’t think that’s a coincidence.
This has been a tremendous help.
 

nattysez

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And now the toughest remaining stretch (on paper):
3 v TB
3 @ SEA
3 @ CWS

Things aren't easy after that -- there are still 3 to be played against the MFY and the Orioles look motivated to play spoiler -- but the Sox have got to make it through the next 9 games with a reasonable record. I'm hoping for at least 5-4.
 

SemperFidelisSox

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The White Sox have Lynn and Giolito on the IL and Tony LaRussa said they hope Rodon can pitch against the Red Sox next weekend after they skip his next start because of shoulder soreness. “But there are no guarantees.”
 

scottyno

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If they go 4-5 vs the tough stretch and then 8-6 vs the easier stretch, which seems a somewhat conservative 12-11 overall, they'd finish with 91 wins and Oakland or Seattle would have to play about .670 ball to pass them.
 

BaseballJones

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If they go 4-5 vs the tough stretch and then 8-6 vs the easier stretch, which seems a somewhat conservative 12-11 overall, they'd finish with 91 wins and Oakland or Seattle would have to play about .670 ball to pass them.
Sounds daunting for Oak or Sea but the fact is, playing.670 ball over a small sample isn’t terribly difficult for a good team.
 

bosockboy

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And now the toughest remaining stretch (on paper):
3 v TB
3 @ SEA
3 @ CWS

Things aren't easy after that -- there are still 3 to be played against the MFY and the Orioles look motivated to play spoiler -- but the Sox have got to make it through the next 9 games with a reasonable record. I'm hoping for at least 5-4.
Winning at least one of three in Seattle is critical.
 

nattysez

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Sounds daunting for Oak or Sea but the fact is, playing.670 ball over a small sample isn’t terribly difficult for a good team.
Seattle and Oakland have 7 left with one another, so either team going 4-3 would serve the Sox well.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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If they go 4-5 vs the tough stretch and then 8-6 vs the easier stretch, which seems a somewhat conservative 12-11 overall, they'd finish with 91 wins and Oakland or Seattle would have to play about .670 ball to pass them.
Toronto only two back in the loss column. Sox have six more wins right now, so Toronto would also need to get really hot to pass them, but they're not out of the running yet.
 

E5 Yaz

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Toronto only two back in the loss column. Sox have six more wins right now, so Toronto would also need to get really hot to pass them, but they're not out of the running yet.
The Sox having played four more games than Toronto, and three more than the MFY, with less than a month to go could work in Boston's favor ... if both those teams have to overwork their staffs. The MFY, for instance, have just begun a 20-straight-days stretch; even against lesser teams, 20 games in 20 days is still tough
 

cantor44

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The Sox having played four more games than Toronto, and three more than the MFY, with less than a month to go could work in Boston's favor ... if both those teams have to overwork their staffs. The MFY, for instance, have just begun a 20-straight-days stretch; even against lesser teams, 20 games in 20 days is still tough
The Red Sox have actually played the most games in baseball this year so far. A soft schedule with days off to rest and line up pitching will benefit in the last half of the month, while their competitors will have to play more games with fewer days off. If the Sox can weather this COVID storm getting guys back sooner than later, and somehow go .500 the next 6 games, they will be in a very strong position in the second half of the month.

The COVID shit is such a wildcard (no pun intended), but with any resumption of normalcy, I think the Sox make the WC and could get the top spot there, which sure would be nice (if we have to play the MFY, for psycho-emotional reasons, I'd rather the game was in Boston).

EDIT: MY pyscho-emotional reasons, not the players. I couldn't bear witnessing Yankees fans' performative conniptions of orgiastic rage joy in the event of a WC loss to the Yanks, after everything we've been through.
 

Apisith

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We’re 4-0 in our last four games at Yankee Stadium in the playoffs, and both years we won the World Series. My thoughts are just get into the wild card, we’ll beat the Yankees wherever we play them.
 

cantor44

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We’re 4-0 in our last four games at Yankee Stadium in the playoffs, and both years we won the World Series. My thoughts are just get into the wild card, we’ll beat the Yankees wherever we play them.
Yes, but in the event we lose at Yankee Stadium, well, I can't take it. I'm not discussing home field advantage or anything, just what I'm able to emotionally endure as a fan!!!
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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This is by far the worst defensive team I have ever seen. Today has been a disaster, but it’s emblematic of the whole season. The best writers on Twitter are eviscerating this team.
Verdugo is terrible playing the wall, either in LF or CF. He sucks at deciding whether to go for a leaping catch at the wall (which for him is always) or stepping back and playing the ball off the wall (which he only does when it's 20 feet up the Monster). He's misplayed two balls at the wall today where he leaped unnecessarily. One he arguably had another step to get to the wall and maybe catch it without jumping. The other in the ninth he had no business trying to catch. The list of guys who catch that ball is JBJ and that's it. He backs off and plays it off the wall, he holds it to a double and Whitlock closes the door.

That doesn't even get into the shitty throwing or Renfroe being asleep and not backing up that ninth inning play.
 

mwonow

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I don't know about 'consistent,' it seems like the level of actual execution is declining pretty rapidly. But after last night...well, I didn't feel strongly about the Benny Hill theme doubling as the soundtrack for the 2021 Sox until yesterday.
 

Max Power

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Seeing Duran and then Verdugo out in center full time explains Danny Santana's continued presence on the roster. He seems to be the only person in the organization who can play center other than Kike.
 

Rovin Romine

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Seeing Duran and then Verdugo out in center full time explains Danny Santana's continued presence on the roster. He seems to be the only person in the organization who can play center other than Kike.
And yet Verdugo has a much better history as a CF than Santana has ever had, even in his best year.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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And yet Verdugo has a much better history as a CF than Santana has ever had, even in his best year.
Clearly the entire defense is a mess right now due to lack of ability to play any position at all plus COVID decimating the roster forcing all sorts of strange lineup configurations. There's no reason, however, for Santana to ever play CF again. That was BRUTAL last night and it's damn fortunate that didn't cost the team the game. Literally a play a replacement player makes.

I was thinking about JBJ and how badly we miss his defense, but I knew he is having a horrendous offensive year (39 OPS+, .168 BA). He is at -0.3 WAR on the season, but defensively he is at 1.4 WAR. And then I see that the Brewers lead their division and their pitching has been good and wonder if we're simply not assigning enough importance to defense in these calculations. Maybe the Brewers don't have any options for CF that can hit, or maybe they know that JBJ is playing such good CF defense that he's making the pitching staff better and more confident. No way of knowing but it's worth thinking about.
 

geoduck no quahog

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What irked me about that play was the decision to dive. Risk/Reward went right out the window. It was probably an inside-the-park if Renfroe fails to back that up...versus a single, or probably a double with Wendel's speed.

(BTW, how can anyone blame Wendel for that? The, "...don't make the third out..." thing is fine, but that was an almost certain triple, or even a scoring play if the throw sails. It took perfection by both Refroe and Dalbec to execute a beautiful thing - a triple all the way once Santana decided he wanted to be a hero)
 
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absintheofmalaise

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Clearly the entire defense is a mess right now due to lack of ability to play any position at all plus COVID decimating the roster forcing all sorts of strange lineup configurations. There's no reason, however, for Santana to ever play CF again. That was BRUTAL last night and it's damn fortunate that didn't cost the team the game. Literally a play a replacement player makes.

I was thinking about JBJ and how badly we miss his defense, but I knew he is having a horrendous offensive year (39 OPS+, .168 BA). He is at -0.3 WAR on the season, but defensively he is at 1.4 WAR. And then I see that the Brewers lead their division and their pitching has been good and wonder if we're simply not assigning enough importance to defense in these calculations. Maybe the Brewers don't have any options for CF that can hit, or maybe they know that JBJ is playing such good CF defense that he's making the pitching staff better and more confident. No way of knowing but it's worth thinking about.
One thing you'd also need to look at re: JBJ is what kind of staff do they have, fly ball vs. ground ball.
This is what Fangraphs has for the top 10 for IP. You can look at all of their pitchers on the site.
44143
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Clearly the entire defense is a mess right now due to lack of ability to play any position at all plus COVID decimating the roster forcing all sorts of strange lineup configurations. There's no reason, however, for Santana to ever play CF again. That was BRUTAL last night and it's damn fortunate that didn't cost the team the game. Literally a play a replacement player makes.

I was thinking about JBJ and how badly we miss his defense, but I knew he is having a horrendous offensive year (39 OPS+, .168 BA). He is at -0.3 WAR on the season, but defensively he is at 1.4 WAR. And then I see that the Brewers lead their division and their pitching has been good and wonder if we're simply not assigning enough importance to defense in these calculations. Maybe the Brewers don't have any options for CF that can hit, or maybe they know that JBJ is playing such good CF defense that he's making the pitching staff better and more confident. No way of knowing but it's worth thinking about.
JBJ hasn't really been a full time starter (93 starts over 140 games). Being in the NL, he's played a bunch of end of games as a defensive replacement, so he might be getting more opportunities that further enhance his dWAR without having to come to the plate. Basically maximizing his value.

What irked me about that play was the decision to dive. Risk/Reward went right out the window. It was probably an inside-the-park if Renfroe fails to back that up...versus a single, or probably a double with Wendle's speed.
This has been the most frustrating thing watching this outfield. We were quite spoiled by Bradley and Betts, in particular by how good their instincts were. None of the current outfielders demonstrate great instincts when breaking on balls or deciding jump/dive versus backing off and conceding a hit. And it costs them a lot. Even Renfroe, as the best of the bunch, makes questionable decisions as often as he makes stellar plays. As good as his arm is, I think he's racked up so many assists because runners are (still) challenging him in the hopes of goading a poor throw. That's the difference between him and someone like Dewey, who people rarely ran on because he was smart and precise.
 

Sin Duda

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... There's no reason, however, for Santana to ever play CF again. That was BRUTAL last night and it's damn fortunate that didn't cost the team the game. Literally a play a replacement player makes.
[/QUOTE]

Thanks for highlighting this. I thought his path to the ball was circuitous, his speed mediocre, his dive a pratfall, and his baseball IQ questionable. But at least his bat makes up for this :p
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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JBJ hasn't really been a full time starter (93 starts over 140 games). Being in the NL, he's played a bunch of end of games as a defensive replacement, so he might be getting more opportunities that further enhance his dWAR without having to come to the plate. Basically maximizing his value.
He's 4th on their team in PAs. 3rd in games played. They're not hiding him.
 

GB5

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With regard to the post minimizing the run that Bobby is on because most of his home runs have come against say replacement level pitching, I dont feel the same way. So many at bats during the year are against mediocre pitching. What is more important to me is the fact that when he hits the ball, he makes elite contact. The problem is that he has not been able to put the ball in play enough against righties. During his hot streak, he has been much improved at this skill. Can you imagine what everyones numbers in baseball would look like if we took out their stats against everyone excluding say the top 3 starters and top 2 relievers?