Will the real Red Sox please stand up? I repeat, will the real Red Sox please stand up?

Rovin Romine

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You really want to debate that he hasn't been one of the best CFs in baseball this year?
I'm more interested in how Bloom signed one of the very best CFs in baseball to a 2/16 deal. Apparently whatever magic formula he used didn't stick for trading for LFs.

Also why he can't trade such a lucrative contract straight up for that Troot dude, who has a pretty sad URD.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Huh? I know you’re talking about Santana/Cordero…. But he did get Verdugo when he could have got zip if he didn’t trade Mookie….which I believe would have been the case. Add in a great RF signing and Bloom really only whiffed on clogging up the 2 best August and September hitters….
 

scottyno

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I'm more interested in how Bloom signed one of the very best CFs in baseball to a 2/16 deal. Apparently whatever magic formula he used didn't stick for trading for LFs.

Also why he can't trade such a lucrative contract straight up for that Troot dude, who has a pretty sad URD.
So no, you just want to troll and make fun of advanced stats, got it
 

scottyno

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Huh? I know you’re talking about Santana/Cordero…. But he did get Verdugo when he could have got zip if he didn’t trade Mookie….which I believe would have been the case. Add in a great RF signing and Bloom really only whiffed on clogging up the 2 best August and September hitters….
Yeah he probably should have kept JBJ AB and Betts and paid something like 4x as much for worse production this year, he's the worst
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Yeah he probably should have kept JBJ AB and Betts and paid something like 4x as much for worse production this year, he's the worst
I get that we could use better D at first…. But substitute Rizzo’s overall production for Dalbec’s overall production since the deadline and Gallo vs Schwarber and it’s not a contest.
 

BaseballJones

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OPS+ numbers of the best realistic offensive lineup the Sox could put out there:

C - Plawecki - 93
1b - Dalbec - 104
2b - Hernandez - 106
3b - Devers - 131
SS - Bogaerts - 131
LF - Schwarber - 136
CF - Verdugo - 109
RF - Renfroe - 111
DH - Martinez - 127

That's pretty good. If they can put that lineup out there most games the rest of the way, they should score a bunch of runs.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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OPS+ numbers of the best realistic offensive lineup the Sox could put out there:

C - Plawecki - 93
1b - Dalbec - 104
2b - Hernandez - 106
3b - Devers - 131
SS - Bogaerts - 131
LF - Schwarber - 136
CF - Verdugo - 109
RF - Renfroe - 111
DH - Martinez - 127

That's pretty good. If they can put that lineup out there most games the rest of the way, they should score a bunch of runs.
That same lineup in the field likely gives up enough errors and unearned runs to make up for how good that lineup is at the plate
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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OPS+ numbers of the best realistic offensive lineup the Sox could put out there:

C - Plawecki - 93
1b - Dalbec - 104
2b - Hernandez - 106
3b - Devers - 131
SS - Bogaerts - 131
LF - Schwarber - 136
CF - Verdugo - 109
RF - Renfroe - 111
DH - Martinez - 127

That's pretty good. If they can put that lineup out there most games the rest of the way, they should score a bunch of runs.
Might give up quite a few as well, with that OF defense. But then again, that's been the story of their whole season.
 

BaseballJones

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I don’t know what it will take to make the WC, but we were hypothesizing about the Sox winning 90. Some were skeptical that they’d get to 90. They still might not. But those last two wins in Seattle were huge.

They’re now at 83 wins with 14 games to go. Need just 7 more wins to get to 90 , so only need to go 7-7 to achieve that. Might need more to win the WC, but just 7 to get to 90.

3 vs Bal (.317)
2 vs NYM (.490)
3 vs NYY (.562)
3 at Bal (.317)
3 at Was (.411)

9 of the 14 games are home, where the Sox have an excellent record this year.

9 of the 14 games are against two of the worst teams in baseball this year.

11of the 14 games are against teams with losing records this year.

This team has been so up and down that we can’t take anything for granted, but they certainly couldn’t have asked for a much better schedule the last two+ weeks. Oh and they get days off before each series if memory serves, allowing them to really use playoff lineup and relief pitching given the number of days off. Some other teams don’t have that luxury.

It’s all setting up nicely for them and if they don’t make it at this point they’d have nobody to blame but themselves.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I think if they take 2/3 against the MFY’s they are guaranteed a WC spot. 1/3 and because of their schedule…. I think it drops to 50%.
that 10th inning last night was garbage baseball- BABiP sacrifice luck. Happens throughout a season though with wins and losses though.
 

tims4wins

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I wrote it in the postseason chances thread, but I think a 9-5 finish would wrap up a WC slot, whereas an 8-6 finish would be more likely to result in a tie for the 2nd WC slot. It begins with winning this next series. One day at a time.
 

Al Zarilla

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I think if they take 2/3 against the MFY’s they are guaranteed a WC spot. 1/3 and because of their schedule…. I think it drops to 50%.
that 10th inning last night was garbage baseball- BABiP sacrifice luck. Happens throughout a season though with wins and losses though.
The key for me was holding the M's scoreless through six innings, after losing the early three run lead, allowing them to get to the point of winning the game. No luck in that, just good bullpen work.
 

chrisfont9

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It's funny how teams are suddenly veering in the direction of their pythagorean records. The Mariners have now lost two series in a row, the previous one to the D-Backs, which is fitting for a team that is quietly 12 GAMES ABOVE ITS PYTHAGOREAN RECORD! I live in Seattle so I don't have a problem with them showing some pluck, but they are a net 100 runs worse than the Sox and have no business bothering us. Meanwhile the Jays are still making up for lost ground and are eight games below where their run differential says they should be. And the Sox, every time they lose a close game on an ill-timed error or pitch, it takes them one game closer to where the numbers say they belong. Sox are now +3 wins, still showing some real resilience, and should be favored to take down the Yankees (+5 wins) on the way to October. If that happens, the standings will end up exactly where they belong.
 

cantor44

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I don’t know what it will take to make the WC, but we were hypothesizing about the Sox winning 90. Some were skeptical that they’d get to 90. They still might not. But those last two wins in Seattle were huge.

They’re now at 83 wins with 14 games to go. Need just 7 more wins to get to 90 , so only need to go 7-7 to achieve that. Might need more to win the WC, but just 7 to get to 90.

3 vs Bal (.317)
2 vs NYM (.490)
3 vs NYY (.562)
3 at Bal (.317)
3 at Was (.411)

9 of the 14 games are home, where the Sox have an excellent record this year.

9 of the 14 games are against two of the worst teams in baseball this year.

11of the 14 games are against teams with losing records this year.

This team has been so up and down that we can’t take anything for granted, but they certainly couldn’t have asked for a much better schedule the last two+ weeks. Oh and they get days off before each series if memory serves, allowing them to really use playoff lineup and relief pitching given the number of days off. Some other teams don’t have that luxury.

It’s all setting up nicely for them and if they don’t make it at this point they’d have nobody to blame but themselves.
I think it will take 92 to get the WC, and that's within reach for the team. I was so reactive and demoralized by the first Seattle loss, but the full series - the full road trip actually - exhibited a revived bullpen; arms coming back, almost now at full strength (caveat: neither CWS or Seattle have much offense). Particularly important that D. Hernandez and Taylor looking so good.

The schedule is pretty easy from here on in, with days off to reset pitching. Feels like winning 9 of the remaining games is a reasonable outcome, and 10 possible.

I think the D is too fatal a flaw to make a big post season run ...The most productive line up option you outline in earlier thread stands with anyone's - but that particular line up definitely sacrifices outfield D. Push Schwarb to first sacrifices infield D ... I think in totality may be best to rotate sitting one of JD, Verdugo, or Schwarb ... or, if JD or Schwarb start in outfield against lefties (Verdugo's splits are pretty extreme), you sub em out by 8th if ahead ....

If they could make the WC and advance to the ALDS and the Yankees don't, I'll consider myself fan satisfied ...
 
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Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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I think it will take 92 to get the WC, and that's within reach for the team. I was so reactive and demoralized by the first Seattle loss, but the full series - the full road trip actually - exhibited a revived bullpen; arms coming back, almost now at full strength (caveat: neither CWS or Seattle have much offense). Particularly important that D. Hernandez and Taylor looking so good.
The White Sox have the 4th highest team OPS in the AL. They have plenty of offense.
 

cantor44

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It's funny how teams are suddenly veering in the direction of their pythagorean records. The Mariners have now lost two series in a row, the previous one to the D-Backs, which is fitting for a team that is quietly 12 GAMES ABOVE ITS PYTHAGOREAN RECORD! I live in Seattle so I don't have a problem with them showing some pluck, but they are a net 100 runs worse than the Sox and have no business bothering us. Meanwhile the Jays are still making up for lost ground and are eight games below where their run differential says they should be. And the Sox, every time they lose a close game on an ill-timed error or pitch, it takes them one game closer to where the numbers say they belong. Sox are now +3 wins, still showing some real resilience, and should be favored to take down the Yankees (+5 wins) on the way to October. If that happens, the standings will end up exactly where they belong.
I think this is apt, totally. And where the Sox are in terms of pythag standings jives with impressionistic sense watching the games: Not as good as CWS, TB, Toronto, or Houston. As good or better than the rest. Okay - fifth best team in AL. That's a step in the right direction after last year.

Important to note that the team may finally be at full strength THIS WEEKEND (minus Arroyo) for the first time this season. An astonishing fact. When considering the full roster - with Sale and Schwarber and Houck, with recovery from the COVID depletion, and with no remaining bereavement/paternity leaves -- the Sox as of September 16 might actually be better than their season pythag. Making them better, maybe, than CWS, but perhaps not the others ...
 

jmcc5400

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The Sox have essentially played seven nail biting "playoff atmosphere" games in a row, going 4-3.
  • The "Renfroe game," 2-1 over Tampa last Wednesday;
  • A 4-3 loss at Chicago last Friday with the Sox leaving the tying run at 2nd in the 9th;
  • A 9-8 win in Chicago last Saturday in 10, where Taylor wriggled out of a 1st and 3rd jam with no out in the bottom of the 10th;
  • A 2-1 loss to the Chisox Sunday that the Sox tied in the 9th off of Kimbrel only to be walked off in the bottom half;
  • Monday's 5-4 loss to the M's that turned on Schwarber butchering a grounder with 2 out in the 8th of a tie game;
  • Tuesday's 8-4 "laugher," in which Schwarber unloaded the bases and broke a tie in the 8th; and
  • Yesterday's game in which Ottavino stranded the winning run at 2nd in the bottom of the 9th and then the Sox exploded for six runs in the top of the 10th.
This is a ball. Enjoy the ride.
 

grimshaw

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They deserve more love because of the difficulty of their schedule.

Contenders and games played vs .500 or greater competition:

Red Sox - 46-45 (91 games)
Blue Jays - 46-40 (86 games)
Yankees - 42-40 (82 games)
Rays 43-38 (81 games)
Mariners 37-37 (74 games)
A's 28-44 (72 games)
Giants 40-32 (72 games)
Dodgers 39-33 (72 games)
Astros 43-31 (71 games)
Phillies 34-37 (71 games)
Reds 31-39 (70 games)
Padres 35-31 (66 games)
Milwaukee 36-29 (65 games)
Braves 28-36 (64 games)
White Sox 25-29 (54 games)

The poor Rockies have played 96 games vs .500 or better.
 

cantor44

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They deserve more love because of the difficulty of their schedule.

Contenders and games played vs .500 or greater competition:

Red Sox - 46-45 (91 games)
Blue Jays - 46-40 (86 games)
Yankees - 42-40 (82 games)
Rays 43-38 (81 games)
Mariners 37-37 (74 games)
A's 28-44 (72 games)
Giants 40-32 (72 games)
Dodgers 39-33 (72 games)
Astros 43-31 (71 games)
Phillies 34-37 (71 games)
Reds 31-39 (70 games)
Padres 35-31 (66 games)
Milwaukee 36-29 (65 games)
Braves 28-36 (64 games)
White Sox 25-29 (54 games)

The poor Rockies have played 96 games vs .500 or better.
they've had what has seemed a brutal schedule all year. Lots of quality teams (can the AL East get some respect? I mean c'mon!!). And many long stretches with no days off: hence having played the most games in the majors to date, and facing a pretty easy schedule with many days off for the remaining 2.5 weeks. And finally at full strength at that. "Signs Point to Yes," subsequently. Let's hope they take advantage.
 

Wallball Tingle

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Considering the Sox' place in folks' minds at the start of the season and how many times the season was lost according to game threads, I'm just delighted to see a dogfight with TOR and NYY (and maybe OAK?) with two weeks to go. Let's see if they can step on some NYM/WSH/BAL throats and maybe help show the Yankees the door on the way. It'll sting a bit if it turns out poorly, but I'd definitely have taken it at the beginning of the year, being in this position. And it's fun! Even if it ends badly, this exquisite tension resolving poorly won't be agony with four recent-ish championships in our pockets, but a pleasant rush to be savored on the way to a probably deserved exit (given quality of potential playoff opponents and wild card competitors). Right now I feel about this team approximately the way I did about the 2017 team after they sewed up the division: good team--lots of heart, never give up--but not good enough (I'm on record BEFORE that postseason, lol). But anything can still happen this year if they make it to the ALDS. I think I said that in 2017 too...