j44thor said:
Based on patscap it appears that NE can clear close to 15M by cutting both Mayo 6.5 (post June) and Wilfork 8.5 (pre-June). Wilfork should be a rather easy decision.
Given the amount of time NE plays in sub I'm not sure there is a number I'm comfortable bringing Mayo back on above his dead money hit. His 6.5M in cap savings can go a long way towards McCourty or Revis and it is rather indisputable that he wasn't missed when he went down. He shouldn't be starting over Collins or Hightower next season so what is a reasonable $$ for him?
Revis already has a 5M hit no matter where he plays next season the extra 15M is rather important for a couple of players you have no idea what you will get from.
How else will they free up money for a Wendell extension?Phragle said:
Good post outside of this nitpick. Williams is only 27. While I think it's most likely Knighton goes to the highest bidder, he is a Pats fan. If he'd give us a discount I'd be interested in him.
You're going to get an angry PM from me if you keep cutting Dennard, guy.
Yup, some hard decisions coming up, I think from the numbers you lay out here that at least one big contributor to the defense is going to be moving on (Mayo is sort of his own case, easiest to move on from performance wise but still not sure it gets Wilfork/Browner/McCourty/Revis all back for another year). Not having a great replacement for Wilfork is certainly a valid point against cutting him, but might be looking at Arrington/Ryan as the starting 2nd cornerback if you go that route and Wilfork's play is more likely to fall off further next year than Browner'sEd Hillel said:To me, it's not about finding a reasonable price for Wilfork, but about what you have to sacrifice to keep him. Let's say you bring back Wilfork at 6 million, that leaves the Patriots at 125-128 against the cap, depending on if you believe Miguel or Over the Cap. Let's be generous and say the cap moves up to 142 million. That leaves you with 14-17 million for Revis, McCourty, Ghost, Siliga, Connolly, free agents, and draft picks. I trust Miguel's numbers more, so let's say 17 million. Let's assume Hooman and Dennard cuts, bringing it up to 19. They can maybe save a couple million with a Solder extension, save up to 4 cutting/trading Amendola (Eagles for a 6th rounder?), though that would incur a 2.4 million dollar dead hit in 2016, cut Browner and save 4.8, and maybe restructure Mayo to save a couple million. How are you going to make this work? Keep in mind that Wilfork is going to be 34 mid-season and plays a position that has a reduced value in 2015. They'll also be getting Mayo back, which should help in the run game, and imo could bring someone in to fill much of Vince's production at a significantly lower price.
SeoulSoxFan said:Dan Williams has been mentioned a couple of times on Bleacher Report (Chris Simms of all people) and other forums.
I don't know him at all, but supposedly he's "a space eater" and "difficult to move". That says a 2-gapper to me. If he can do the job, you have to think he'll cost just as much as Wilfork, albeit for a much younger player.
What do we know about Dan Williams?
Ed Hillel said:I think they can save a few bucks cutting Collins, too. Thoughts?
Doesn't that describe Wilfork exactly? To me it seems like having a huge 3-4 two gap NT gives Belichick and Patricia a lot of flexibility to run 3 or 4 down linemen and still be able to stop or at least slow down the run, even with extra DBs or faster LBs.Phragle said:Oh you mean Dan Williams of the soon-to-be RFP Champion Tactical Turtlenecks? I know about him, but I don't think he's a good fit here. In AZ he's 2-down, 3-4 NT, and that's it. He's very effective in that role but I think the Pats will want someone proven to be more versatile if they're going to sign a big FA DT.
The way FO measures open-field yards is 10+ past the line of the scrimmage. At that level, Wilfork's impact is minor.soxfan121 said:True, but occupying blockers and keeping them from the second level is key to allowing linebackers to make plays. I can't imagine a BB defense without a guy who effectively occupies multiple blockers; the only time its happened was 2013 and that was a disaster that required a trade and some FA signings and still resulted in a team that was truly awful against the run. That the 2014 Patriots were lowly ranked in short-yardage run defense isn't - on its own - proof that Wilfork is expendable.
Drafting a big space-eating interior DL is, IMO, essential this season. Almost as essential as interior OL, though you can argue they actually have more reliable talent on the roster offensively than defensively on the interior.
This is how I've traditionally looked at cap management, too, but the Mankins trade tells me that the Patriots don't look at it this way. Mankins had a cap number of $10.25 MM with $8 MM in dead money. That looks like a modest savings, but they actually saved $6.25 MM (his 2014 salary) relative to how much they would have spent keeping him. You always have to pay the dead money, whether you keep the player or cut him. If the Patriots cut Mayo now, they will pay him $3 MM this year and $3 MM next (assuming they designate him a post-6/1). If the keep him for a year and cut him next year, they will pay him ~$10.25 MM this year and ~$3 MM next. So the real savings is in the neighborhood of $7 MM, and if they think Mayo isn't worth that they should cut him or trade him.Ed Hillel said:I'm not so sure on Mayo being gone. As Thor said, they can save 6.5 million with a post June 2 cut, but it's really only an overall cap savings of 4 million, since 2.5 of it is just a deferred dead money hit to 2016. Same with Amendola, incidentially, as 2.4 of the 4 saved with a post June 2 cut is deferred, as well. Will Mayo be cut for 4 million in overall cap savings? While Hightower and Collins certainly played out of their minds in the absence of Mayo, I don't buy into the thought that the team is better without Mayo being available. In limited action, we saw that Mayo allowed Hightower to get at the QB and to give Nink/Jones some rest they desperately needed. He's also a prime run-stuffer. I'd rather keep him and the 2 extra in cap space than Wilfork, and I do think they will be able to make that work, though it is going to be a tough fit. Looking again at his contract, they may actually be able to renegotiate to cut his hit by a couple million this season and then possibly look to trade him next season, depending on what they work out.
Again, keep in mind that, if he's cut tomorrow, his cap hit is still 6 million. There's nothing the team can do about the cap hit from the signing bonus, except to split it up and defer some of it to next year if he's a late cut.
Good thing Pete Carroll didn't have this information in front of him. GeezIn 2014, the Patriots were the worst team in the league in Power Success, allowing opposing offenses to convert 22 of 27 runs (81 percent) in important short-yardage situations (third or fourth down with 2 yards or less to go and first- or second-and-goal from the 2-yard-line or closer). Even the Patriots' few stops came against the league's worst running teams. Teams not ranking in the bottom quarter of the league in Football Outsiders' rushing DVOA ratings converted 16 of 17 chances (94 percent) against the Patriots' run defense.
crystalline said:Doesn't that describe Wilfork exactly? To me it seems like having a huge 3-4 two gap NT gives Belichick and Patricia a lot of flexibility to run 3 or 4 down linemen and still be able to stop or at least slow down the run, even with extra DBs or faster LBs.
Seems like Belichick may want a huge NT if Wilfork goes. Back 10 years ago in the 3-4 that player was essentia, and I think having one gives flexibility still. We will see how they play it.
allowing opposing offenses to convert 22 of 27 runs (81 percent) in important short-yardage situations (third or fourth down with 2 yards or less to go and first- or second-and-goal from the 2-yard-line or closer)
nazz45 said:
I'm not very good at statistics, but if four or five stops can swing your percentage ranking from dead last to middle of the pack, I'm not sure this is a very useful indicator of anything without context for each situation, especially run direction in relation to defensive alignment (at least in regards to Wilfork).
First, I didn't watch every snap, but yes I remember a lot of plays with 3DL where he was playing end. They moved him around. And with 4 guys on the line with a LB like Chandler Jones on the end, so you have Wilfork being essential to hold up the middle of the line. Its true I don't remember many plays where he's lined up over the center.Phragle said:That's his ideal role, but we've seen Wilfork evolve and find success outside of the 0-tech. We've seen him in a 4-man front regularly, as a 3-4 DE at times, and even as a 9-tech. They have a lot of similarities, but Williams hasn't done that. Williams is also in an ideal position, for him and the Cardinals, so you'll have to outbid them. I think we're talking about a bigger contract, and if we're doing that I'd rather go for a more versatile guy that can pass-rush too, like Knighton. Having a good run stuffer is one thing, but how often does Wilfork play 0-tech now? I can't remember any snaps this year off the top of my head.
MainerInExile said:That's right, I think. Mayo's cap hit, for being the 3rd best LB, is higher than Wilfork's, as best DT. Wilfork is still probably overpaid, just not as overpaid.
The short term cost savings of Wilfork might be more, but in the longer run you save $6-7 million cutting Mayo. You have to pay his dead money either way, but you really save his 2015 salary cutting him now, even if it forces some dead money to accelerate.Ed Hillel said:
While this is true, the team's LB corp is much better than its interior defensive line. Mayo likely is the third best LB on the team at this point, but the two ahead of him are coming off of pro-bowl caliber seasons. The cap hit is also not the most relevant aspect to be looking at here, since Mayo has bonus money that cannot be taken off the cap. Mayo's cap hit is 10.3 million, but they can only save 3.85 million against the cap by flat cutting him (with the caveat they can get it up to 6.25 for 2015 by deferring 2.4 dead money to 2016, which is still an overall savings of 3.85). Wilfork's cap hit is lower at 8.9 million, but the savings from a pure cut is at least 7 million (I think it's actually over 8 million, but PatsCap is inconsistent on this. Total cap hit is 8.93, and the only guaranteed money I see is the prorated signing bonus, which adds up to around 866k. Anyone?). They can obviously restructure and try to lower either of those cap hits, but in terms of pure cap savings, Wilfork's contract offers almost twice that, possible more, of Mayo's.
You're absolutely right, the savings difference is actually limited to this season. My bad.Super Nomario said:The short term cost savings of Wilfork might be more, but in the longer run you save $6-7 million cutting Mayo. You have to pay his dead money either way, but you really save his 2015 salary cutting him now, even if it forces some dead money to accelerate.
In the Burlington, VT airport on SB Sunday I spotted a 135# white guy in an oversizedLose Remerswaal said:Tangent, but this is what happens when you wear a Wilfork jersey on vacation . . . . and the Big Guy himself shows up