The great back-and-forth AL Wild Card play-in game got me thinking about what post-season games have been the "wildest".
To test this, I picked out (by memory) a bunch of post-season games that had a lot of tension, downloaded the play-by-play from Baseball-Reference, and computed the standard deviation of that game's play-by-play "win expectancy" as a proxy for volatility. (As an aside, this analysis does not account for the extra excitement generated by "win-or-go-home" situations. I noticed that some games I vividly recall as gut-wrenching didn't score as high as I imagined because of this missing factor.)
Here's the list, ranked in inverse order of STDEV(wWE) (games in red more recently added):
44. 1991 World Series Game 7 - Morris goes 10 to win the World Series for the Twins 1-0. STDEV(wWE) = 0.117. Exciting game but not a lot of back-and-forth or late-inning heroics/lead changes that are needed to drive volatility of Win Expectancy.
43. 1992 World Series Game 6 - a 4-3 final in 11, ending with old friend Mike Timlin clinching the Jays' first championship by pouncing on an Otis Nixon 2-out bunt with the tying run on 3rd. STDEV(wWE) = 0.122
42. 1953 World Series Game 6 - Carl Furillo ties it in the top of the 9th with a 2-run blast, but Yankees score in the bottom to win this one 4-3 and take the series. STDEV(wWE) = 0.122.
41. 1947 World Series Game 4 - Yankees' Bill Bevens walks 10, but takes a no-hitter into the 9th, then with two out gives up the only hit the Dodgers would need to win this one. STDEV(wWE) = 0.125.
40. 1972 World Series Game 1 - A's counter Tigers' single run in the top of the 11th with a pair of their own. The first of 12 World Series games they would win over a three-year span. STDEV(wWE) = 0.129.
39. 1912 World Series Game 8 - Red Sox beat Christy Mathewson 3-2 to clinch the series, thanks in part to Snodgrass' Muff. STDEV(wWE) = 0.133. Again, low-scoring without lots of late-inning lead changes.
38. 1985 World Series Game 6 - The Royals stare down elimination with an assist from Don Denkinger. STDEV(wWE) = 0.137.
37. 2001 World Series Game 7 - While the rest of the nation cheers on a recovering NYC, Diamondback and Red Sox fans elate when Luis Gonzalez ruins the fairy-tale ending. STDEV(wWE) = 0.148.
36. 1992 NLCS Game 7 - Years later, TBS would tout Braves' broadcasts with the tag line "Where were you when Sid slid?" STDEV(wWE) = 0.156.
35. 2014 NLCS Game 2 - Up-to-the-minute action. The line score to this one looks like binary code. Kolten Wong sure is trying to make up for that pickoff, isn't he? STDEV(wWE) = 0.156.
34. 2009 AL "Game 163" - Down 3-0 early, Twins battle back to end Tigers' hopes in 12 innings, when the twelfth man to hit off of Fernando Rodney (Alexi Casilla) singles to right to plate Delmon Young. STDEV(wWE) = 0.161.
33. 1951 NL Playoff Game 3 - "The Giants win the pennant!" (Surprised this isn't higher.) STDEV(wWE) = 0.162.
32. 2004 ALCS Game 4 - We all know what happened in this game. I was surprised it didn't score higher. STDEV(wWE) = 0.162.
31. 2004 ALCS Game 5 - Ditto and ditto. STDEV(wWE) = 0.163.
30. 2003 NLDS Game 3 - Giants score one in the 11th but 2 runs score on Ivan Rodriguez' game-winner with 2 outs in the bottom. And the Marlins are headed toward breaking Yankee fans' hearts. STDEV(wWE) = 0.164.
29. 1997 World Series Game 7 - Cleveland snatches defeat from the jaws of victory, and rolls it through Tony Fernandez' legs. STDEV(wWE) = 0.171.
28. 1995 ALDS Game 5 - Mariners' Andy Benes and Yankees' David Cone lock horns at the Kingdome, with Yankees taking a 4-2 lead in the 6th. Mariners tie it in the bottom of the 8th on a Griffey Jr. solo shot and a bases-loaded walk. Yankees score once in the top of the 11th, but Mariners get a pair and the win in the bottom. STDEV(wWE) = 0.176.
27. 2007 NL Wild Card "Game 163" - Red-hot Rox and ice-cold Padres duke it out for access to the post-season. Padres land two body blows in the top of the 13th, Rockies counter with a three-spot off Trevor Hoffman to advance. STDEV(wWE) = 0.178.
26. 1986 World Series Game 6 - Obviously this isn't weighted by degree of heartbreak caused. STDEV(wWE) = 0.181. Total tears created immeasurable.
25. 1929 World Series Game 5 - A's clinch by rallying from behind for the second night in a row. In this one, they score three times in the 9th to win 3-2. This one was played in 102 minutes. STDEV(wWE) = 0.185
24. 1980 NLCS Game 5 - I don't remember this Phils-Astros series, but it clearly was a doozy with four of the five games going extras. In the clincher, Astros score five in the top of the 8th to jump ahead 7-5, but 'Stros score twice in the bottom. Philly plates one in the top of 10th and Dick Ruthven closes it out. STDEV(wWE) = 0.188.
23. 2008 ALCS Game 5 - Red Sox stave off elimination thanks to Big Papi and J. D. Drew, overcoming a 7-0 deficit with four in the 7th, three in the 8th, and the game-winner in the 9th. Not so much a back-and-forth game as a BACK ... and ... FORTH game. STDEV(wWE) = 0.194.
22. 1925 World Series Game 7 - A see-saw battle but Walter Johnson tires and the Pirates come through for 2 in 7th and 3 in the 8th for what will be their last championship until Bill Mazeroski's HR. STDEV(wWE) = 0.195.
21. 2011 World Series Game 6 - Nelson Cruz cheats in to be early to the dog pile. As a result he misses the fly ball that would have won the Series for the Rangers, leaving the door open for David Freese's heroics. STDEV(wWE) = 0.200.
20. 1975 World Series Game 7 - Jim Burton pitched in 32 games in his major league career. Astonishingly, this was one of them. Did you know he died last December? I didn't. STDEV(wWE) = 0.203.
19. 2009 NLCS Game 4 - Down one in the 9th with two out and two on, Jimmy (not Henry) Rollins hits a game-winning double off Jonathan Broxton to put the Phils up 3-1 in the series. STDEV(wWE) = 0.207
18. 1972 World Series Game 4 - Down one in the 9th with one out and none on, Dick Williams pulls out all the stops, sending pinch-hitters up for 3 of his next 4 hitters. They all get hits and A's come back to beat the Reds 3-2. STDEV(wWE) = 0.210.
17. 2003 ALCS Game 7 - This would have scored higher except the Win Expectancy doesn't change as the result of mind-blowingly stupid mound visits. STDEV(wWE) = 0.213
16. 2005 World Series Game 3 - I still find it hard to believe that the Astros and White Sox played in a World Series. Astros take a 4-0 lead only to have Oswalt give up five runs in the 5th. Astros tie it in 8th. No scoring til the top of the 14th, when the White Sox break through for a pair. Save goes to ... Mark Buerhle (who knew?) STDEV(wWE) = 0.216.
15. 2014 AL Wild Card Play-In game - a wild one for sure, but not the wildest. STDEV(wWE) = 0.226.
14. 1975 World Series Game 6 - again the stakes and our Red Sox bias amplify the impact of this game. It's right up there. STDEV(wWE) = 0.227.
13. 2005 NLDS Game 4 - Facing elimination, Braves squander a 6-1 8th inning lead, and this one goes 18 innings before the Astros advance on a Chris Burke (who?) walk-off homer. Roger Clemens pitches the last three innings for the win. STDEV(wWE) = 0.234.
12. 1999 ALDS Game 5 - Troy O'Leary's finest hour. Maybe Pedro's too. STDEV(wWE) = 0.235.
11. 1993 World Series Game 4 - the game that led to death threats for Mitch Williams. Lots of scoring and late lead changes resulted in a STDEV(wWE) = 0.240.
10. 1996 World Series Game 4 - Braves lead 6-0 after 5, but Yankees score 3 in the 6th and Leyritz hits a 3-run HR in the 8th off Mark Wohlers that leads to extras. In the top of the 10th, Steve Avery gets two quick outs, then surrenders 2 runs on 3 walks, an IF single, and an error. STDEV(wWE) = 0.245.
9. 1986 ALCS Game 5 - Don Baylor's and Dave Henderson's HRs give the Sox a stunning 9th inning lead. But Angels tie it in the bottom of the 9th, with the Red Sox winning in 11. AKA the Donnie Moore game - if you haven't read the recent SI article on the last year's of Moore's life, look for it. STDEV(wWE) = 0.252
8. 1993 World Series Game 6 - the Joe Carter series-winning walk-off game. Had forgotten that was a 3-run shot to come back from behind. STDEV(wWE) = 0.254.
7. 1980 NLCS Game 4 - this game bookends entry 23 above. Phils overcome a 2-0 deficit with three runs off Vern Ruhle in the top of the 8th. Astros get one back in the bottom of the 9th, but the Pride of Saskatchewan Terry Puhl gets doubled off first on a fly to RF and we go to extras. Greg Luzinski drives in Pete Rose with a pinch-hit single in the 10th, and Manny Trillo plates the Bull for an insurance run. STDEV(wWE) = 0.264.
6. 2002 World Series Game 6 - Giants take a 5-run lead after 6-1/2 and look to be headed for their first San Fran championship. But Angels score 3 in the 7th and 3 more in the 8th to force game 7. STDEV(wWE) = 0.268.
5. 1960 World Series Game 7 - Mazeroski clubs one out of Forbes Field, over Yogi Berra's head. Didn't realize what a back-and-forth game this was. Excitement-wise, this may well be the best World Series clincher ever. STDEV(wWE) = 0.275.
4. 1986 NLCS Game 6 - Mets have to score 3 in the ninth to postpone the spectre of a 7th game, and get the lead run to third but can't take the lead. Mets and 'Stros exchange single runs in the 14th. Mets break through for 3 in the top of the 16th, and Astros get a pair but can't make it all the way back. STDEV(wWE) = 0.276.
3. 2003 NLCS Game 6 - Can you say Steve Bartman? Not in Chicago you can't, not even eleven years later. STDEV(wWE) = 0.277.
2. 1956 World Series Game 2 - Yankees send unheralded starter Don Larsen to the mound against Don Newcombe. Yankees drive Newcombe from the game trailing 6-0 in the top of 2nd, only to have Larsen spit the bit and we're tied after 2. But the Dodgers keep scoring and go on to win 13-8. STDEV(wWE) = 0.281. (Larsen would pitch a little better in game 5.)
1. 1929 World Series Game 4 - Down 8-0 to the Cubs going into the bottom of the 8th, the A's send 15 men to the plate and score ten times before making their second out, to take a 3-1 series edge. STDEV(wWE) = 0.303.
Edit: Now up to 44 games and I'm done for now. Lots of good new additions. New adds have numbers in Red. This has been fun.
To test this, I picked out (by memory) a bunch of post-season games that had a lot of tension, downloaded the play-by-play from Baseball-Reference, and computed the standard deviation of that game's play-by-play "win expectancy" as a proxy for volatility. (As an aside, this analysis does not account for the extra excitement generated by "win-or-go-home" situations. I noticed that some games I vividly recall as gut-wrenching didn't score as high as I imagined because of this missing factor.)
Here's the list, ranked in inverse order of STDEV(wWE) (games in red more recently added):
44. 1991 World Series Game 7 - Morris goes 10 to win the World Series for the Twins 1-0. STDEV(wWE) = 0.117. Exciting game but not a lot of back-and-forth or late-inning heroics/lead changes that are needed to drive volatility of Win Expectancy.
43. 1992 World Series Game 6 - a 4-3 final in 11, ending with old friend Mike Timlin clinching the Jays' first championship by pouncing on an Otis Nixon 2-out bunt with the tying run on 3rd. STDEV(wWE) = 0.122
42. 1953 World Series Game 6 - Carl Furillo ties it in the top of the 9th with a 2-run blast, but Yankees score in the bottom to win this one 4-3 and take the series. STDEV(wWE) = 0.122.
41. 1947 World Series Game 4 - Yankees' Bill Bevens walks 10, but takes a no-hitter into the 9th, then with two out gives up the only hit the Dodgers would need to win this one. STDEV(wWE) = 0.125.
40. 1972 World Series Game 1 - A's counter Tigers' single run in the top of the 11th with a pair of their own. The first of 12 World Series games they would win over a three-year span. STDEV(wWE) = 0.129.
39. 1912 World Series Game 8 - Red Sox beat Christy Mathewson 3-2 to clinch the series, thanks in part to Snodgrass' Muff. STDEV(wWE) = 0.133. Again, low-scoring without lots of late-inning lead changes.
38. 1985 World Series Game 6 - The Royals stare down elimination with an assist from Don Denkinger. STDEV(wWE) = 0.137.
37. 2001 World Series Game 7 - While the rest of the nation cheers on a recovering NYC, Diamondback and Red Sox fans elate when Luis Gonzalez ruins the fairy-tale ending. STDEV(wWE) = 0.148.
36. 1992 NLCS Game 7 - Years later, TBS would tout Braves' broadcasts with the tag line "Where were you when Sid slid?" STDEV(wWE) = 0.156.
35. 2014 NLCS Game 2 - Up-to-the-minute action. The line score to this one looks like binary code. Kolten Wong sure is trying to make up for that pickoff, isn't he? STDEV(wWE) = 0.156.
34. 2009 AL "Game 163" - Down 3-0 early, Twins battle back to end Tigers' hopes in 12 innings, when the twelfth man to hit off of Fernando Rodney (Alexi Casilla) singles to right to plate Delmon Young. STDEV(wWE) = 0.161.
33. 1951 NL Playoff Game 3 - "The Giants win the pennant!" (Surprised this isn't higher.) STDEV(wWE) = 0.162.
32. 2004 ALCS Game 4 - We all know what happened in this game. I was surprised it didn't score higher. STDEV(wWE) = 0.162.
31. 2004 ALCS Game 5 - Ditto and ditto. STDEV(wWE) = 0.163.
30. 2003 NLDS Game 3 - Giants score one in the 11th but 2 runs score on Ivan Rodriguez' game-winner with 2 outs in the bottom. And the Marlins are headed toward breaking Yankee fans' hearts. STDEV(wWE) = 0.164.
29. 1997 World Series Game 7 - Cleveland snatches defeat from the jaws of victory, and rolls it through Tony Fernandez' legs. STDEV(wWE) = 0.171.
28. 1995 ALDS Game 5 - Mariners' Andy Benes and Yankees' David Cone lock horns at the Kingdome, with Yankees taking a 4-2 lead in the 6th. Mariners tie it in the bottom of the 8th on a Griffey Jr. solo shot and a bases-loaded walk. Yankees score once in the top of the 11th, but Mariners get a pair and the win in the bottom. STDEV(wWE) = 0.176.
27. 2007 NL Wild Card "Game 163" - Red-hot Rox and ice-cold Padres duke it out for access to the post-season. Padres land two body blows in the top of the 13th, Rockies counter with a three-spot off Trevor Hoffman to advance. STDEV(wWE) = 0.178.
26. 1986 World Series Game 6 - Obviously this isn't weighted by degree of heartbreak caused. STDEV(wWE) = 0.181. Total tears created immeasurable.
25. 1929 World Series Game 5 - A's clinch by rallying from behind for the second night in a row. In this one, they score three times in the 9th to win 3-2. This one was played in 102 minutes. STDEV(wWE) = 0.185
24. 1980 NLCS Game 5 - I don't remember this Phils-Astros series, but it clearly was a doozy with four of the five games going extras. In the clincher, Astros score five in the top of the 8th to jump ahead 7-5, but 'Stros score twice in the bottom. Philly plates one in the top of 10th and Dick Ruthven closes it out. STDEV(wWE) = 0.188.
23. 2008 ALCS Game 5 - Red Sox stave off elimination thanks to Big Papi and J. D. Drew, overcoming a 7-0 deficit with four in the 7th, three in the 8th, and the game-winner in the 9th. Not so much a back-and-forth game as a BACK ... and ... FORTH game. STDEV(wWE) = 0.194.
22. 1925 World Series Game 7 - A see-saw battle but Walter Johnson tires and the Pirates come through for 2 in 7th and 3 in the 8th for what will be their last championship until Bill Mazeroski's HR. STDEV(wWE) = 0.195.
21. 2011 World Series Game 6 - Nelson Cruz cheats in to be early to the dog pile. As a result he misses the fly ball that would have won the Series for the Rangers, leaving the door open for David Freese's heroics. STDEV(wWE) = 0.200.
20. 1975 World Series Game 7 - Jim Burton pitched in 32 games in his major league career. Astonishingly, this was one of them. Did you know he died last December? I didn't. STDEV(wWE) = 0.203.
19. 2009 NLCS Game 4 - Down one in the 9th with two out and two on, Jimmy (not Henry) Rollins hits a game-winning double off Jonathan Broxton to put the Phils up 3-1 in the series. STDEV(wWE) = 0.207
18. 1972 World Series Game 4 - Down one in the 9th with one out and none on, Dick Williams pulls out all the stops, sending pinch-hitters up for 3 of his next 4 hitters. They all get hits and A's come back to beat the Reds 3-2. STDEV(wWE) = 0.210.
17. 2003 ALCS Game 7 - This would have scored higher except the Win Expectancy doesn't change as the result of mind-blowingly stupid mound visits. STDEV(wWE) = 0.213
16. 2005 World Series Game 3 - I still find it hard to believe that the Astros and White Sox played in a World Series. Astros take a 4-0 lead only to have Oswalt give up five runs in the 5th. Astros tie it in 8th. No scoring til the top of the 14th, when the White Sox break through for a pair. Save goes to ... Mark Buerhle (who knew?) STDEV(wWE) = 0.216.
15. 2014 AL Wild Card Play-In game - a wild one for sure, but not the wildest. STDEV(wWE) = 0.226.
14. 1975 World Series Game 6 - again the stakes and our Red Sox bias amplify the impact of this game. It's right up there. STDEV(wWE) = 0.227.
13. 2005 NLDS Game 4 - Facing elimination, Braves squander a 6-1 8th inning lead, and this one goes 18 innings before the Astros advance on a Chris Burke (who?) walk-off homer. Roger Clemens pitches the last three innings for the win. STDEV(wWE) = 0.234.
12. 1999 ALDS Game 5 - Troy O'Leary's finest hour. Maybe Pedro's too. STDEV(wWE) = 0.235.
11. 1993 World Series Game 4 - the game that led to death threats for Mitch Williams. Lots of scoring and late lead changes resulted in a STDEV(wWE) = 0.240.
10. 1996 World Series Game 4 - Braves lead 6-0 after 5, but Yankees score 3 in the 6th and Leyritz hits a 3-run HR in the 8th off Mark Wohlers that leads to extras. In the top of the 10th, Steve Avery gets two quick outs, then surrenders 2 runs on 3 walks, an IF single, and an error. STDEV(wWE) = 0.245.
9. 1986 ALCS Game 5 - Don Baylor's and Dave Henderson's HRs give the Sox a stunning 9th inning lead. But Angels tie it in the bottom of the 9th, with the Red Sox winning in 11. AKA the Donnie Moore game - if you haven't read the recent SI article on the last year's of Moore's life, look for it. STDEV(wWE) = 0.252
8. 1993 World Series Game 6 - the Joe Carter series-winning walk-off game. Had forgotten that was a 3-run shot to come back from behind. STDEV(wWE) = 0.254.
7. 1980 NLCS Game 4 - this game bookends entry 23 above. Phils overcome a 2-0 deficit with three runs off Vern Ruhle in the top of the 8th. Astros get one back in the bottom of the 9th, but the Pride of Saskatchewan Terry Puhl gets doubled off first on a fly to RF and we go to extras. Greg Luzinski drives in Pete Rose with a pinch-hit single in the 10th, and Manny Trillo plates the Bull for an insurance run. STDEV(wWE) = 0.264.
6. 2002 World Series Game 6 - Giants take a 5-run lead after 6-1/2 and look to be headed for their first San Fran championship. But Angels score 3 in the 7th and 3 more in the 8th to force game 7. STDEV(wWE) = 0.268.
5. 1960 World Series Game 7 - Mazeroski clubs one out of Forbes Field, over Yogi Berra's head. Didn't realize what a back-and-forth game this was. Excitement-wise, this may well be the best World Series clincher ever. STDEV(wWE) = 0.275.
4. 1986 NLCS Game 6 - Mets have to score 3 in the ninth to postpone the spectre of a 7th game, and get the lead run to third but can't take the lead. Mets and 'Stros exchange single runs in the 14th. Mets break through for 3 in the top of the 16th, and Astros get a pair but can't make it all the way back. STDEV(wWE) = 0.276.
3. 2003 NLCS Game 6 - Can you say Steve Bartman? Not in Chicago you can't, not even eleven years later. STDEV(wWE) = 0.277.
2. 1956 World Series Game 2 - Yankees send unheralded starter Don Larsen to the mound against Don Newcombe. Yankees drive Newcombe from the game trailing 6-0 in the top of 2nd, only to have Larsen spit the bit and we're tied after 2. But the Dodgers keep scoring and go on to win 13-8. STDEV(wWE) = 0.281. (Larsen would pitch a little better in game 5.)
1. 1929 World Series Game 4 - Down 8-0 to the Cubs going into the bottom of the 8th, the A's send 15 men to the plate and score ten times before making their second out, to take a 3-1 series edge. STDEV(wWE) = 0.303.
Edit: Now up to 44 games and I'm done for now. Lots of good new additions. New adds have numbers in Red. This has been fun.