Who's Ineligible For All-NBA?

jon abbey

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I thought this might be fun to keep an eye on as the season progresses...

So there's a new rule this year that players have to play in at least 65 games to be eligible for All-NBA. So for instance Joel Embiid has missed 8 games so far, he can only miss a max of 9 more this season to stay eligible.

So 18 games missed is the magic number, games missed so far for some notable players:

Embiid: 8
Donovan Mitchell: 9
Kyrie Irving: 16
Devin Booker: 9
Kevin Durant: 7
 

sonofgodcf

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Haliburton has only missed 3 games this year, but if his injury lingers, he may be in danger as well. Shame as he's really fun to watch. Luckily early reports sound like he may have dodged a bullet.

Ja on the other hand, isn't as fortunate (though he was already out due to his suspension).
 

Euclis20

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I like this thread. Haliburton will be re-evaluted in 2 weeks, which means at least another 7 games missed (bringing him to 10 for the year). He might end up being close.

One big name not yet mentioned, Jimmy Butler. He's gonna miss his 13th game tonight, it almost seems like a lock that he'll fall below the 65 game cutoff. He's openly said he doesn't care (good for him), but I'm still annoyed that he (and Paul George) made it over Tatum in 2021, when he played 10 more games than them and was arguably more impressive statistically, they got the nod only because their teams were better and voters didn't bother taking into account the games missed.

I know Tatum's a bit salty about missing all-NBA that year, he went on Reddick's podcast a year or two later talking about how it cost him $30M.
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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I like this thread. Haliburton will be re-evaluted in 2 weeks, which means at least another 7 games missed (bringing him to 10 for the year). He might end up being close.

One big name not yet mentioned, Jimmy Butler. He's gonna miss his 13th game tonight, it almost seems like a lock that he'll fall below the 65 game cutoff. He's openly said he doesn't care (good for him), but I'm still annoyed that he (and Paul George) made it over Tatum in 2021, when he played 10 more games than them and was arguably more impressive statistically, they got the nod only because their teams were better and voters didn't bother taking into account the games missed.

I know Tatum's a bit salty about missing all-NBA that year, he went on Reddick's podcast a year or two later talking about how it cost him $30M.
Agree with 2020-21, there were a handful of part-time players getting All NBA. Seems like voters and fans always look at averages, but if the averages are close then you have to look at the totals as well. Availability is an ability in this respect. Fortunately for JT that $30 million is going to be a drop in the bucket of his career earnings and the system has been corrected a bit.
 

benhogan

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Zion: 7 games
Fox: 6 games

Harden: 4 games (much lower than I would have thought).

Healthy so far but older:
Curry: 2 games
AD: 2 games
Bron: 3 games
Dame: 3 games
Kawhi: 4 games
 

TroyOLeary

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You need to play 20 minutes for a game to count (with 2 exceptions for 15-19 minutes allowed), so technically Haliburton has missed 4, as he only played 13 minutes against the Celtics the other night. It also adds another missed game to Kyrie's total, meaning he can't miss another game (not that he was likely to make all-NBA anyway).
 

Euclis20

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Slightly off topic, but rather than have a 65 game minimum for end of season awards, I would've preferred the NBA somehow switch all per games played stats to per 82 games. Meaning that instead of Joel Embiid averaging a league leading 34.6 ppg, he'd be averaging 26.7 points per game (935 points for Embiid in 35 games for Philly this year). Almost all basic NBA stats are per game so voters aren't able to really conceptualize the difference between someone played 60 games and someone playing 75 games, and this would solve that problem.

Lebron was 3rd team all-NBA last year despite missing a 3rd of the season, in large part because voters thought his basic per game numbers (29.3 points, 8.4 rebounds and 6.9 assists) looked the same as they have for his entire career. Would he still have made all-NBA if those numbers were 19.7 points, 5.6 rebounds and 4.6 assists? Probably not, that looks like something prime Andre Iguodala would've averaged, without the defense. We'd have no need for games played minimums, other sports don't have that because it's easy to see at a glance long absences reflected in basic stats. This would also be solved if we just switched to looking at total points/rebounds/assists/etc, but after a century of per game numbers, I think this would be a harder switch (even if those stats are readily available now).

This sort of massive statistical overhaul would never happen, but in a perfect world, this is what I'd want.
 

snowmanny

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Slightly off topic, but rather than have a 65 game minimum for end of season awards, I would've preferred the NBA somehow switch all per games played stats to per 82 games. Meaning that instead of Joel Embiid averaging a league leading 34.6 ppg, he'd be averaging 26.7 points per game (935 points for Embiid in 35 games for Philly this year). Almost all basic NBA stats are per game so voters aren't able to really conceptualize the difference between someone played 60 games and someone playing 75 games, and this would solve that problem.

Lebron was 3rd team all-NBA last year despite missing a 3rd of the season, in large part because voters thought his basic per game numbers (29.3 points, 8.4 rebounds and 6.9 assists) looked the same as they have for his entire career. Would he still have made all-NBA if those numbers were 19.7 points, 5.6 rebounds and 4.6 assists? Probably not, that looks like something prime Andre Iguodala would've averaged, without the defense. We'd have no need for games played minimums, other sports don't have that because it's easy to see at a glance long absences reflected in basic stats. This would also be solved if we just switched to looking at total points/rebounds/assists/etc, but after a century of per game numbers, I think this would be a harder switch (even if those stats are readily available now).

This sort of massive statistical overhaul would never happen, but in a perfect world, this is what I'd want.
The NBA doesn't promote counting stat totals. Embed is the NBA scoring leader, but Doncik has scored the most points. Likewise, Embed was the scoring champion the last two years but Tatum (22-23) and Young (21-22) scored the most points.
 

Euclis20

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The NBA doesn't promote counting stat totals. Embed is the NBA scoring leader, but Doncik has scored the most points. Likewise, Embed was the scoring champion the last two years but Tatum (22-23) and Young (21-22) scored the most points.
Yeah, and I get why not (because no one knows what scoring 1700 points or grabbing 500 rebounds means in context without doing some math), but it's annoying nonetheless.
 
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the moops

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Yeah, and I get why not (because no one knows what scoring 1700 points or grabbing 500 rebounds means in context without doing some math), but it's annoying nonetheless.
This is a good point and one that I had never really thought of. Nobody cares in baseball if player X averages 1.4 hits per game. They care if he gets 200 total. Or really too much if runningback X averaged 80 yds/game. They care if he gets 1000 yards.

Yet in basketball, nobody cares if player X scored 2000 points. They care if he averaged 30.

It's weird
 

slamminsammya

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This is a good point and one that I had never really thought of. Nobody cares in baseball if player X averages 1.4 hits per game. They care if he gets 200 total. Or really too much if runningback X averaged 80 yds/game. They care if he gets 1000 yards.

Yet in basketball, nobody cares if player X scored 2000 points. They care if he averaged 30.

It's weird
baseball folks don't care about rate stats? or you mean for awards?
 

Euclis20

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baseball folks don't care about rate stats? or you mean for awards?
Baseball has a nice mix of basic rate stats (BA/OBP/SLG/OPS) and counting stats (HR/RBI/SB/BB/etc) that give voters and the general public a nice view of a player's impact over a full season. Unless I'm forgetting something there are 0 counting stats on a basic NBA box score that anyone pays attention to. Total points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, field goals made/missed, free throws made/missed, three pointers made/missed...voters and the public never care about the season totals for these stats, for awards or otherwise.

There are plenty of advanced metrics for both sports that do a better job of calculating actual/total value, but for basketball, there's nothing so basic as HR leader, SB leader, hits leader, etc etc.
 

Five Cent Head

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Baseball has a nice mix of basic rate stats (BA/OBP/SLG/OPS) and counting stats (HR/RBI/SB/BB/etc) that give voters and the general public a nice view of a player's impact over a full season. Unless I'm forgetting something there are 0 counting stats on a basic NBA box score that anyone pays attention to. Total points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, field goals made/missed, free throws made/missed, three pointers made/missed...voters and the public never care about the season totals for these stats, for awards or otherwise.
Technical fouls may be the one exception.
 

lovegtm

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A few C's starters not reaching the 20 minute threshold tonight. KP with 21, the other starters 16-19 minutes
They do get two exceptions for 15-19 minutes.

The Celtics players also aren't quite as motivated to care. Tatum is already eligible for the supermax, and Brown has the supermax. DWhite needs games for all-defense, but he'll get those. Jrue and KP probably won't be getting award due to their counting stat drop, although Jrue might get all-defense.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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This sort of massive statistical overhaul would never happen, but in a perfect world, this is what I'd want.
Scal has been banging this drum for a while and was particularly loud about it last year since JT scored the most points in the season.

Speaking of JT, he was +3400 for MVP a week ago and is now down to +2500 according to FanDuel but given that a bunch of people ahead of him may not qualify, if I were a betting man, I'd have laid some money down on him. Best player; Best team.
 

the moops

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Scal has been banging this drum for a while and was particularly loud about it last year since JT scored the most points in the season.

Speaking of JT, he was +3400 for MVP a week ago and is now down to +2500 according to FanDuel but given that a bunch of people ahead of him may not qualify, if I were a betting man, I'd have laid some money down on him. Best player; Best team.
There appears to be one player, not a bunch who may not qualify. Embiid
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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There appears to be one player, not a bunch who may not qualify. Embiid
Thanks. I should have said "if a bunch of people' don't qualify rather than "given that a bunch or people" as my point is that JT being the best player on the best team and playing as much as he does seems to be a stronger candidate for MVP if a bunch of people don't get to 65.

For example, Doncic has already missed five games and has not played more than 66 games in a season since his rookie year so if he were to get injured, he might not make it.

Giannis has also not played more than 67 games in the last four years, though he's 37/38 right now.

Jokic is obviously someone who plays a lot and would be the main competition if the people who have shorter odds don't qualify for whatever reason.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Some potential financial implications for some guys (Murray, Bam, Fox, and Halliburton) if they don't get to 65 games here: https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/39318248/nba-65-game-rule-affect-mvp-race-supermax-deals.

Also, I didn't know there was a way for players who fall short to challenge the consequences.
FOR PLAYERS WHO fall short of the 65-game threshold, there are procedures in place to attempt to regain eligibility for awards.
The pathway to achieving that, however, is a narrow one.
Once a player has officially fallen short of being able to reach 65 games played, the rule states they'll have two days to file a grievance. An arbitration hearing between the player, team, league and players' union will follow.
To file a grievance, a player must have clear and convincing evidence that the team limited the minutes or games played by that player with the intention of depriving the player of eligibility for one or more awards.
There is also one injury-related clause: If players have a season-ending injury just before reaching the 65-game threshold, they could remain award eligible. That player would have to have played in at least 62 regular-season games, have suffered a season-ending injury and have played in at least 85% of his team's games before getting hurt.
There's also an "extraordinary circumstances" clause. However, league and players union sources do not expect injuries to suffice, as it essentially defeats the purpose of the rule.
"We've never seen a player who's played 40 games, for example, be recognized with [an award impacted by the rule]," [Evan Wasch, the NBA's executive vice president of basketball strategy and analytics] said. "We have seen players kind of in the low- to mid- 50s [in games played] with extraordinary seasons get those recognitions.
"This is just memorializing what the competition committee, the players' association, the league, teams collectively thought reflected in aggregate season performance. ... And we understand that means that a player could fall short by a game, two, three.
"Then that recognition is gonna go to someone else who had, in theory, a greater aggregate contribution to his team by playing 65 or more games."
 

Euclis20

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Embiid out today against Denver. This is his 4th straight DNP @ Denver, his last game there was in November, 2019. Normally I'd say this is an eyes on the prize move for him (a big argument in his favor for MVP is that he usually outplays Jokic head to head, and he can't be outplayed if he's not playing at all), but this will be his 11th missed game. He can only miss 6 more games the rest of the way, and I imagine Philly will want him to sit at least half that many in the last couple weeks to keep him fresh for the playoffs.
 

benhogan

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Embiid out today against Denver. This is his 4th straight DNP @ Denver, his last game there was in November, 2019. Normally I'd say this is an eyes on the prize move for him (a big argument in his favor for MVP is that he usually outplays Jokic head to head, and he can't be outplayed if he's not playing at all), but this will be his 11th missed game. He can only miss 6 more games the rest of the way, and I imagine Philly will want him to sit at least half that many in the last couple weeks to keep him fresh for the playoffs.
76ers have 6 more B2Bs, Embiid would be nuts to push it leading into the playoffs
 

snowmanny

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Embiid playing tonight. But if he ends up ineligible for awards I suppose that keeps Dončić & Tatum from being in any danger of dropping to Second team All-NBA
 

lovegtm

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Is Embiid playing hurt just to try to keep his MVP eligibility alive?

I wonder whether he's just mentally given up (subconsciously) on ever getting out of the 2nd round, and has decided MVP is the most he can hope for.
 

lovegtm

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Right on cue, media hand-wringing about whether the 65-game rule is fair to JoJo. It's honestly insane the degree to which Embiid, a guy who consistently chokes HARD on the biggest stages, is obsessed with this regular season award:

https://theathletic.com/5240548/2024/01/31/joel-embiid-knee-injury-nba-65-game-rule/

EDIT: what's even funnier is that Embiid's 66 games played last year, were BY FAR the fewest for any MVP in the past decade (on a % basis, because the 19-20 and 20-21 seasons were shortened). 70+ has always been the norm for MVP, and even 70 is at the low end.
 
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Euclis20

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Right on cue, media hand-wringing about whether the 65-game rule is fair to JoJo. It's honestly insane the degree to which Embiid, a guy who consistently chokes HARD on the biggest stages, is obsessed with this regular season award:

https://theathletic.com/5240548/2024/01/31/joel-embiid-knee-injury-nba-65-game-rule/

EDIT: what's even funnier is that Embiid's 66 games played last year, were BY FAR the fewest for any MVP in the past decade (on a % basis, because the 19-20 and 20-21 seasons were shortened). 70+ has always been the norm for MVP, and even 70 is at the low end.
My favorite stat in the Embiid vs Jokic debate: Embiid's career high in games played (68) is fewer than Jokic's career low in games played (69). The best ability is availability, fuck this guy and his whining.
 

lovegtm

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My favorite stat in the Embiid vs Jokic debate: Embiid's career high in games played (68) is fewer than Jokic's career low in games played (69). The best ability is availability, fuck this guy and his whining.
Not to mention that, if "availability in the playoffs" is the metric, he's even worse! Or rather, he does play, but he sucks ass progressively worse as a given series goes on.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Right on cue, media hand-wringing about whether the 65-game rule is fair to JoJo. It's honestly insane the degree to which Embiid, a guy who consistently chokes HARD on the biggest stages, is obsessed with this regular season award:

https://theathletic.com/5240548/2024/01/31/joel-embiid-knee-injury-nba-65-game-rule/

EDIT: what's even funnier is that Embiid's 66 games played last year, were BY FAR the fewest for any MVP in the past decade (on a % basis, because the 19-20 and 20-21 seasons were shortened). 70+ has always been the norm for MVP, and even 70 is at the low end.
I've seen some suggestions that if the league didn't have the minimum games played requirement for the awards that players like Embiid wouldn't push themselves so hard. Which is almost certainly true but it feels like its missing a much bigger point.

Back to back MVPs is pretty cool for the 76ers and their fans, I guess...
 

lovegtm

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I've seen some suggestions that if the league didn't have the minimum games played requirement for the awards that players like Embiid wouldn't push themselves so hard. Which is almost certainly true but it feels like its missing a much bigger point.

Back to back MVPs is pretty cool for the 76ers and their fans, I guess...
Yeah, I keep coming back to the fact that every previous MVP the past decade had 0 problem playing > 70 games. Maybe God just didn't intend for Jojo to be an MVP candidate, and he should come to grips with that.

Enjoy the regular season PPG numbers though! Those flags fly forever.
 

Jimbodandy

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Are we basically disagreeing on the number of games required to qualify for an award. I'm not cheering a guy like Haliburton getting a lower contract but if the guy played 10 games this year, would we think that he was an all-NBA player? At some point actually fucking playing has to matter.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Also, the NBA is far from the first organization to implement attendance standards for compensation awards etc. I get that sports is different than office work but the reality is that they are performers being paid to produce.

If Joel etc isn't producing to a certain standard, they can't earn the award. Why is that so unfair?
 

The Raccoon

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If you go by counting stats, Embiid this year is
- 7th in total points (84% of SGA)
- 18th in total rebounds (66% of Sabonis)
- 15th in total blocks (46% of Lopez)
- far away from the Top50 in assists and steals.

Win shares*: 4th, 70% of Jokic/SGA
VORP*: 5th, 63% of Jokic.
(*from basketball-reference.com)

So yes, he's playing a great season, even while missing many games.
No, he's not even close to Jokic (or SGA) if you factor in availability.
 

Euclis20

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Tatum is the opposite end of that. He missed out on all-NBA in 2021, just behind Jimmy Butler and Paul George on 3rd team, costing Tatum about $33M. They played just 52 and 54 games, respectively (it was a 72 game season, but Tatum played 64 games and put up equal or better numbers than both).

I have some sympathy for Haliburton here as it really is out of his control, but the reality of the situation is that when you miss more than 20% of the season, it's hard to say that you were one of the 15 best players in that particular year. Life is hard.
 

TomRicardo

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The NBA needed this rule and the players are idiots for arguing against it.

Players were load managing during national television games, that is why the rule exists. If the NBA can't kill the new television contract, NBA contracts can't keep getting bigger. Joel is only surpassed by Kawhi in fucking over the NBA on skipping national TV games. Joel should be honored to be the first player knee capped by the Embiid rule.
 

Euclis20

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View: https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1752829016334381400?s=20


This puts Embiid at 13 games missed, he needs to play at least 31 of Philly's 35 remaining games. He did play 32 of their final 36 games last year (that's including sitting out the last two games of the year solely for rest) so it's not impossible, but depending on his injury he may be officially ineligible for postseason awards by the end of next week.
 

m0ckduck

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I know it's been commented plenty before, but the sheer amount of time Embiid spends rolling around on the floor is insane for a player with his build and injury profile. In this case, diving on the floor after the ball was knocked away by Draymond led directly to the current injury. Shouldn't the Sixers just tell him to prioritize not falling over so much, or— if he can't help that— standing up again as fast as possible rather than fighting for a loose ball in a January game? I would have lost my mind two months ago if KP spent as much time on the floor as Embiid does.

It feels like there's a bunch of common-sense directives that could be taken to preserve Embiid for the playoffs, from punting on regular season awards to just being more selective/smart about the way he plays. But instead the narrative is being shifted to: "Oh, these cruel pushy fans, putting all this pressure on Joel to play when he's not ready" / "Oh, these unreasonable NBA awards thresholds, putting all this incentive on Joel to play when he's not ready."
 

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I am not sure where this chart came from, but here is an update on the players listed:
Players (from the above chart) who have now missed more than 17:
  • OG Anunoby
  • Joel Embiid

Players still eligible (number in parentheses is games missed to date):
  • Kristaps (16)
  • Butler (13)
  • Haliburton (13)
  • Donovan (12)
  • Bam (10)
  • Booker (9)
  • Durant (7)
  • Luka (7)
Others not in that chart, whose names are being discussed in the All-NBA thread:
  • LeBron (8)
  • Jaylen (5)
  • Kawhi (5)
  • Harden (5)
  • AD (4)
  • Edwards (4)
  • Brunson (4)
  • Tatum (3)
  • Fox (3)
  • Jokic (2)
  • Curry (2)
  • SGA (1)
  • Sabonis (0)
 

Euclis20

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Donovan Mitchell has been declared out for tonight's game against Phoenix, meaning he's officially missed too many games to qualify for individual honors. Unlike some other big names that won't qualify (Butler, Ja, Ball, Beal, Kyrie, KP), I think Mitchell was a lock for all-NBA so this is a real miss for him, and a real opportunity for someone else.
 

the moops

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Interesting thing I just read

Alperen Sengun might have delayed getting hurt just long enough and gotten hurt just severely enough to qualify for All-NBA and, more realistically, Most Improved Player votes.


You certainly know players generally must play 65 games to be eligible for major postseason awards. And you probably know players must play at least 20 minutes for those games to count, with two exceptions allowed for at least 15 minutes.

But there's also another obscure way for players to qualify for postseason awards:

"the player (A) played in at least sixty-two (62) Regular Season games, (B) suffered a 'season-ending injury' (as defined below), and (C) played in at least eighty-five percent (85%) of the Regular Season games played by his Team prior to the player suffering such injury."
Sengun played 63 of Houston's 64 games (98%). So, A and C are covered.

As far as B, a doctor jointly selected by the league and union must determine Sengun is "substantially more likely than not" to be out through May 31.
 

lovegtm

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Donovan Mitchell has been declared out for tonight's game against Phoenix, meaning he's officially missed too many games to qualify for individual honors. Unlike some other big names that won't qualify (Butler, Ja, Ball, Beal, Kyrie, KP), I think Mitchell was a lock for all-NBA so this is a real miss for him, and a real opportunity for someone else.
Stuff like this makes Jaylen more likely than you'd think to make another All-NBA team, particularly with no positions in voting.

Availability will really become the best ability for a lot of guys, at least in this context.