Who will be this year's Stephen Drew?

TheYaz67

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Four of the 16 players who declined their $15.8 million qualifying offer remain unsigned: Ian Desmond, Howie Kendrick, Dexter Fowler and Yovani Gallardo. They are perhaps all in that dreaded "good, but good enough to give up a draft pick for?" class of players, who hopefully had agents who explained the risks of not accepting the QO.

I am worried that it will be poor Ian Desmond will be this year's Drew. The market has just not shaped up for him, and teams that hypothetically need(ed) a SS (like San Deigo of the Chicago Sox) have found someone cheaper/are willing to let a rookie try their hand at the job. Did not help that Desmond had a terrible season, both at the plate and in the field heading into FA, after turning down a 5 year $90 million offer from the Nats after the 2014 season. He was a fairly steady 3.5 WAR player (BRef) for three years between 2012 and 2014, then was at 2 last season. He is a free swinger (career .312 OBP and 187 Ks last year) and struggles with his throws sometimes, so if you don't think he can rebound to a 3+ WAR player (which he has only done 3 times in 6 years as a full time SS) its hard to see giving him multiple years, $70+ million and/or a pick. Hard to also give up the pick if just signing him to a one year deal to see if he can bounce back to his 2012-2014 self...

Matt Wieters and others saw this same dynamic and took the QO this year rather that risk being unsigned, whether because of injury or performance concerns. Who do you think out of the remaining 4 will still be standing without a chair when Spring Training starts?
 

grimshaw

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Gallardo reminds me a bit of Kyle Lohse a few years ago. He came off a few good years in St. Louis and didn't sign with anyone until March 25th.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Kendrick's my pick. He had a slightly better year last year than Desmond, but he's only been a 3+ WAR player twice and is two years older than Desmond. Desmond put up 4+ WAR three straight years until last year (when he was at least better in the 2d half after a horrendous first few months). Desmond has also talked about moving to other positions. I think he'll find a landing spot.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Kendrick's my pick. He had a slightly better year last year than Desmond, but he's only been a 3+ WAR player twice and is two years older than Desmond. Desmond put up 4+ WAR three straight years until last year (when he was at least better in the 2d half after a horrendous first few months). Desmond has also talked about moving to other positions. I think he'll find a landing spot.
Barely a day has passed and it's already not looking good for your pick. :)

Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal
Sources: #Dodgers making progress with Kendrick.

Seems like it would be a crowded infield with Kendrick, Justin Turner, Chase Utley, Corey Seager, and Kike Hernandez all on the roster. Presumably Utley and Kendrick will platoon 2B duties with Kendrick also filling in at 3B occasionally, leaving Kike to float around the field in a Brock Holt-ish utility role. I guess that gives Dave Roberts some flexibility to do some double switching. Yay NL rules. :rolleyes:
 

Sampo Gida

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That's a huge misread of the market isn't it? Pretty clear he should have taken the QO. I always wonder what those conversations with his agent were like.
Its only clear in hindsight. MLBTR had him getting 4/50. Seems a lot of the top position players are finding no market but their last team. Shades of 1987
 

Boggs26

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Its only clear in hindsight. MLBTR had him getting 4/50. Seems a lot of the top position players are finding no market but their last team. Shades of 1987
Yeah, it is only in hindsight, but that's sorta what these guys pay agents for - to read the market. I'd love to know if the agent recommended passing on the QO or if his rec was disregarded.

It's not like guys haven't had this issue in previous years, so clearly someone (player or agent) has to believe that someone will offer something more valuable. In this case they were clearly wrong. All he had to do to beat this deal with the QO was get more than 4mil next year - aka don't have a career ending injury.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Good thing I'm not (much of) a betting man! 2/$20 isn't bad - IF Kendrick likes LA. Also possible that he knew a deal like this was on the table with the Dodgers but wanted to see what else was out there. Far better outcome than what befell Drew.
 

dynomite

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Two years, $20 million for Kendrick with the Dodgers
Dave Cameron at Fangraphs has a pretty persuasive piece about why the DBacks made a serious error in opting to trade for Segura instead of signing Kendrick and giving up the 39th pick in the draft.

Interesting discussion of what players (and picks) are worth in 2016.

So, in dealing for Segura, the D-Backs gave up a prospect that has something like equal value to the 39th pick, plus a major league pitcher who probably has more value than the pick they didn’t want to surrender. The D-Backs gave up significantly more long-term value in this trade than they would have by just signing Kendrick.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/howie-kendrick-jean-segura-and-arizonas-latest-mistake/
 

TheYaz67

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Gallardo reminds me a bit of Kyle Lohse a few years ago. He came off a few good years in St. Louis and didn't sign with anyone until March 25th.
Yeah, I am thinking he definitely gets picked up by someone closer to Spring training/during ST to replace an injured/ineffective player somewhere, given the importance of starting pitching in general. I mean if Samardjiza can get 5/$90M after the season he had, there has to be a market for Gallardo at fewer years and dollars than that. Apparently several teams including the O's have been in occasional talks with his agent, so interest is there if the price is right.

I think it will come down to Desmond v. Fowler....
 

TheYaz67

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Well, the O's grabbed Gallardo, and are rumored to be close also to a deal with Fowler, while Desmond's options continue to shrink - the ChiSox grabbed Rollins on a ml deal, and Tampa is clearly queezy about having to give up pick #13 for Desmond.

Frankly makes sense for the O's to grab FAs and forgo their picks, given how miserably they have drafted in the early rounds in the past 15 years.....

What would an appropriate way to recognize winning this year's "Stephen Drew Memorial 'I should have taken the QO'" award?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Well, the O's grabbed Gallardo, and are rumored to be close also to a deal with Fowler, while Desmond's options continue to shrink - the ChiSox grabbed Rollins on a ml deal, and Tampa is clearly queezy about having to give up pick #13 for Desmond.

Frankly makes sense for the O's to grab FAs and forgo their picks, given how miserably they have drafted in the early rounds in the past 15 years.....

What would an appropriate way to recognize winning this year's "Stephen Drew Memorial 'I should have taken the QO'" award?
Rosenthal has been suggesting for a couple weeks now that Colorado is Desmond's most likely landing spot. The major hang up there, aside from the lost pick, is that Jose Reyes' situation is still in limbo. The Rockies expect Reyes to be suspended under the DV policy, so prevailing thinking is Desmond fills in while Reyes is gone then the Rockies trade one of them (probably Desmond because who wants Reyes?) for at least something approximating the pick they are losing.

Makes sense in a way. But Manfred has to act first and suspend Reyes.