Who to sell at the trade deadline?

chrisfont9

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In his last 15 starts going back to last year, Pivetta has had a game score of 57 or better in 11 of those starts, with two clunkers this year (first game back vs Atlanta, and Milwaukee game) plus two starts sandwiched around his relief role last year. For reference, I picked 57 because that represents at most 3 runs allowed in 5+ innings. He had this vs the Yankees last year in 5.1 innings with 10Ks. He has a 59 this year in five shutout innings (just 3 Ks) vs Oakland. Most nights that's his floor. He is a pretty solid #3 starter by major league averages. I don't think there is any way they let him walk for nothing, no QO, etc. The biggest "risk" is him accepting $20m for one year, in a season when they have a lot of money coming off the books. He plays a position of significant need and he's already in the building. It'd be nice to see them win the bidding war for Corbin Burnes next winter, but until that happens Pivetta is pretty important to hang on to.
 

Fishy1

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It strikes me if the Sox are to deal from anywhere, it might be their glut of middle infield prospects and incipient major leaguers. Grissom, Valdez, Hamilton -- any one of these guys could stick as a major leaguer. On top of that, you have Meidroth, Lugo, Mayer, and Yorke. All of these guys appear to have some major league skills. Of the major league dudes, Grissom has the pedigree and scorched the minor leagues, Valdez is hot and cold, but when he's hot he can carry a lineup, Hamilton is pretty average across the board except for his exceptional speed. And of course there's Romy, too, who has options, plenty of pedigree, and had his career derailed by shoulder injuries, but was scorching the ball this year.

Then you've got Meidroth, who forced his way up through the minors and is an on-base machine, Mayer, who is one of the best prospects in baseball, Lugo, who lost his prospect status but was one of the best hitters in all of the minor leagues for the first few months of this year (and is off to an absolutely blistering start in AAA), and Yorke, who has plenty of pedigree and a good glove but has yet to really stand out as a hitter.

Lugo is Rule 5 eligible, and Yorke will be starting in December. Lot of choices to make here.
 

RS2004foreever

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We will regret not extending Pivetta. He would be the most attractive piece to deal by far.
O'Neil would be attractive to some as well.
Not sure you get much for Jansen/Martin.
 

ookami7m

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It strikes me if the Sox are to deal from anywhere, it might be their glut of middle infield prospects and incipient major leaguers. Grissom, Valdez, Hamilton -- any one of these guys could stick as a major leaguer. On top of that, you have Meidroth, Lugo, Mayer, and Yorke. All of these guys appear to have some major league skills. Of the major league dudes, Grissom has the pedigree and scorched the minor leagues, Valdez is hot and cold, but when he's hot he can carry a lineup, Hamilton is pretty average across the board except for his exceptional speed. And of course there's Romy, too, who has options, plenty of pedigree, and had his career derailed by shoulder injuries, but was scorching the ball this year.

Then you've got Meidroth, who forced his way up through the minors and is an on-base machine, Mayer, who is one of the best prospects in baseball, Lugo, who lost his prospect status but was one of the best hitters in all of the minor leagues for the first few months of this year (and is off to an absolutely blistering start in AAA), and Yorke, who has plenty of pedigree and a good glove but has yet to really stand out as a hitter.

Lugo is Rule 5 eligible, and Yorke will be starting in December. Lot of choices to make here.
There is 0.000001% chance they trade Grissom at a low value after trading Chris Sale for him. I think Meidroth is the most likely to get moved of the bunch that you listed purely due to Rule 5 clock and the comparative value behind him.
 

Fishy1

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There is 0.000001% chance they trade Grissom at a low value after trading Chris Sale for him. I think Meidroth is the most likely to get moved of the bunch that you listed purely due to Rule 5 clock and the comparative value behind him.
Yeah, I doubt they'd deal Grissom too. Just listing him as a part of the larger glut.
 

nvalvo

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There is 0.000001% chance they trade Grissom at a low value after trading Chris Sale for him. I think Meidroth is the most likely to get moved of the bunch that you listed purely due to Rule 5 clock and the comparative value behind him.
Lugo likely has some trade value helium given the offensive season he's having (although he's an outfielder now), and he's also on the clock Rule 5-wise.
 

Fishy1

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Lugo likely has some trade value helium given the offensive season he's having (although he's an outfielder now), and he's also on the clock Rule 5-wise.
On the other hand, you do have to wonder if it's just helium or if this is real. 12 home runs in 180 PA, a 12% walk rate, a K% of only 21%? An OPS of 1.069? That's crazy stuff. By wrc+ he was one of the very best hitters in ALL of the minor leagues for his first couple months. He was good in 2022, bad in 2023, but not every guy's path to the majors is linear. Duran hit .250 in AA over 350 plate appearances.

Regression is always possible, but when a guy is hitting like he is, and your team's offense kind of sucks (and you need right-handed power), it might make it hard to pull the trigger. I could see them DFA'ing someone like Cooper, who might be out of baseball soon the way he's been hitting, to make room for Lugo if he continues to demolish AAA.

 
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simplicio

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If what Lugo's been doing is real, he strikes me as someone you hold on to unless you think Breslow is extending O'Neill beyond a QO (I don't).
 

Fishy1

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If what Lugo's been doing is real, he strikes me as someone you hold on to unless you think Breslow is extending O'Neill beyond a QO (I don't).
Definitely. The combo of right-handed power and hit tool is hard to come by. Lugo

Extending O'Neill also strikes me as a tough proposition given the fact that the guy has had enough knee and back issues that he had to get a cortisone shot. I'm not altogether opposed to the idea, and was fine with the idea of it earlier this year at the right price, and he's largely been healthy this year, which is a credit to him, but he had knee issues last year too, and I'm just not sure how he's going to age into his 30's. I love what he's given them and want him on this team for the rest of the year if they're competitive, but I also wouldn't be surprised if he missed more time this year. They might ship him off if they fall 5 or ten games below five hundred, and they might get a nice return too.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Definitely. The combo of right-handed power and hit tool is hard to come by. Lugo

Extending O'Neill also strikes me as a tough proposition given the fact that the guy has had enough knee and back issues that he had to get a cortisone shot. I'm not altogether opposed to the idea, and was fine with the idea of it earlier this year at the right price, and he's largely been healthy this year, which is a credit to him, but he had knee issues last year too, and I'm just not sure how he's going to age into his 30's. I love what he's given them and want him on this team for the rest of the year if they're competitive, but I also wouldn't be surprised if he missed more time this year. They might ship him off if they fall 5 or ten games below five hundred, and they might get a nice return too.
He's a perfect QO candidate IMO.... and then to offer maybe a 2 year $25M contract to. His injury history might keep teams away from him for something bigger than that, and if he plays well in '25 and a guy like Lugo is still looking impressive, you can look to deal O'Neill then. But there's no RHH power coming up in FA, so they'd have to look for a trade (again, ideally, it'd be someone to be a full time DH/corner backup) if not O'Neill
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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If you offer him a QO, he’s not signing a 2 year $25M deal. He’s also a Boras client.

Possible he is the kind of guy who gets left standing in the offseason, but if you want to sign him early, I imagine it takes 4 years.
 

nvalvo

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On the other hand, you do have to wonder if it's just helium or if this is real. 12 home runs in 180 PA, a 12% walk rate, a K% of only 21%? An OPS of 1.069? That's crazy stuff. By wrc+ he was one of the very best hitters in ALL of the minor leagues for his first couple months. He was good in 2022, bad in 2023, but not every guy's path to the majors is linear. Duran hit .250 in AA over 350 plate appearances.

Regression is always possible, but when a guy is hitting like he is, and your team's offense kind of sucks (and you need right-handed power), it might make it hard to pull the trigger. I could see them DFA'ing someone like Cooper, who might be out of baseball soon the way he's been hitting, to make room for Lugo if he continues to demolish AAA.

I would let Lugo get 40 or 50 AAA PAs, and then call him up for corner OF/DH duty if he's playing well and there's still a need.
 

nvalvo

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Prompted by the Lugo discussion: The FO has a really good problem, in that almost everyone in the farm system is on a positive trajectory. If you scroll through the Sox Prospects list, everybody's answering questions and moving in positive directions—except a tiny handful.

By my count, here are the disappointments among the top 25 or so prospects in the org:
  • Wikelman Gonzalez is having a pretty rough season in basically every respect. He's on the 40, which is a problem.
  • Relief prospects Christopher Troye and Luis Guerrero are walking everybody. Both are R5 eligible.
  • Allan Castro has taken a step back.
  • Bryan Mata is hurt again. He is on the 40, which is a problem.
  • Angel Bastardo has been bad and might be hurt?
  • Vaughn Grissom... yeah. Setback after setback.
Against the successes:
  • Wilyer Abreu didn't make the opening day roster, but he is eleventh in fWAR among MLB outfielders.
  • Ceddanne Rafaela just lost rookie eligibility, and basically saved the season with his defensive versatility. He has positive bWAR despite a ~60 wRC+.
  • Luis Perales has made a leap: K/BB ratio around 5, way higher groundball rate, FIP around 2. His ceiling is getting pretty damn high. He should crack some top-100 prospect lists leaguewide. He's on the 40, which is not a problem.
  • Kristian Campbell was the best hitter in the South Atlantic League and is now up in AA.
  • Matthew Lugo was the best hitter in the Eastern league, and is now in AAA. He is R5 eligible.
  • Kyle Teel has an .875 OPS and seems like he will be in AAA/the MLB catching depth picture by the draft signing deadline.
  • Marcelo Mayer's shoulder appears to be fixed; to the best I can determine, he's tied for second in doubles in affiliated baseball with 21, behind only Alec Bohm.
  • Miguel Bleis' shoulder looks great — and he's doubled his walk rate?!?
  • Yoeilin Cespedes has come stateside and is destroying the ball: .290/.380/.550.
  • Roman Anthony is 20 in AA and has an .800 OPS. Not even remotely overmatched at the same age Rafael Devers played in AA.
  • Elmer Rodriguez has traded the second half of his hyphenated surname for like four MPH on his four seamer.
  • Nazzan Zanatello has finally debuted, and looks good in the early going: .261/.382/.457.
  • Justin Slaten looks like a Rule 5 heist.
And in between:
  • Ryan Zeferjahn appeared to have tamed his control issues until what was hopefully just a hiccup in his early AAA appearances. He is R5 eligible.
  • A few of the advanced position-players prospects, Yorke, Hickey, Kavadas, Paulino and Jordan, are sort of in a holding pattern. All five are R5 eligible. I can't see protecting any of these guys (maybe Yorke?), but I bet one gets picked.
  • When we acquired Richard Fitts, he was widely seen as a probable reliever. Now he looks likely to stick as a useful 5/6 SP. The floor is rising, but the ceiling is falling. He is R5 eligible.
  • Chase Meidroth is still Meidrothing with a hilarious .290/.440/.370 line.
  • David Sandlin's a project, but he still looks like a candidate to start.
  • Johanfran Garcia was hitting amazingly until his knee injury.
  • Mikey Romero is finally on the field, and is playing well.
We're going to have to cash a few of these guys in, either at the trade deadline or early in the offseason, because we can't keep them all. Then again, the new rules mean teams are only allowed to have 165 minor leaguers total in their domestic affiliates, so I wonder how that will shift the calculus in rule 5...
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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Prompted by the Lugo discussion: The FO has a really good problem, in that almost everyone in the farm system is on a positive trajectory. If you scroll through the Sox Prospects list, everybody's answering questions and moving in positive directions—except a tiny handful....
Thanks for this @nvalvo !
I've been most disappointed with Yorke. He had an .815 OPS in about 80 April PAs, but struggled to a .605 in ~90 May PAs. Was surprised he got called up to Worcester, but he's off to a good start there -- 1-4 with a walk yesterday and 2-4 with a double so far today.

Zach Penrod is another success story. 2.80 ERA in 7 AA starts, and 4 shutout innings in his first AAA appearance.
 

Fishy1

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Grissom has had two minor injuries and people want to cash out on him. He's 22 and has barely ever missed any time before. This is a little nuts.
I'm clarifying this a second time, but I don't want to cash out on him myself.I think my post must have given that impression because (1) I'm dumb sometimes and (2) I'm dumb sometimes. I was more trying to sketch out how the Sox had too many guys for these positions and they might deal from that group. If anybody were to go, I'd think it would be Meidroth, Valdez, or Hamilton.

But yeah, I think Grissom is the most likely of the group to stick and go on to have a really good career, and I would be baffled if the dealt him.
 

chrisfont9

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I'm clarifying this a second time, but I don't want to cash out on him myself.I think my post must have given that impression because (1) I'm dumb sometimes and (2) I'm dumb sometimes. I was more trying to sketch out how the Sox had too many guys for these positions and they might deal from that group. If anybody were to go, I'd think it would be Meidroth, Valdez, or Hamilton.

But yeah, I think Grissom is the most likely of the group to stick and go on to have a really good career, and I would be baffled if the dealt him.
OK, and I was referring to multiple posts wanting to sell on Grissom, which others have pointed out isn't happening, if only because his value is uncertain. I think NValvo's post (which I very much appreciated) could put him in the last category of tbd, that would be fair. We know he can hit MLB pitching but how well is tbd, and we were hoping to get some feedback on that by like right now, so the delay is annoying in ways that differ from any other prospects we are waiting on.
 
Mar 30, 2023
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Prompted by the Lugo discussion: The FO has a really good problem, in that almost everyone in the farm system is on a positive trajectory. If you scroll through the Sox Prospects list, everybody's answering questions and moving in positive directions—except a tiny handful.

By my count, here are the disappointments among the top 25 or so prospects in the org:
  • Wikelman Gonzalez is having a pretty rough season in basically every respect. He's on the 40, which is a problem.
  • Relief prospects Christopher Troye and Luis Guerrero are walking everybody. Both are R5 eligible.
  • Allan Castro has taken a step back.
  • Bryan Mata is hurt again. He is on the 40, which is a problem.
  • Angel Bastardo has been bad and might be hurt?
  • Vaughn Grissom... yeah. Setback after setback.
Against the successes:
  • Wilyer Abreu didn't make the opening day roster, but he is eleventh in fWAR among MLB outfielders.
  • Ceddanne Rafaela just lost rookie eligibility, and basically saved the season with his defensive versatility. He has positive bWAR despite a ~60 wRC+.
  • Luis Perales has made a leap: K/BB ratio around 5, way higher groundball rate, FIP around 2. His ceiling is getting pretty damn high. He should crack some top-100 prospect lists leaguewide. He's on the 40, which is not a problem.
  • Kristian Campbell was the best hitter in the South Atlantic League and is now up in AA.
  • Matthew Lugo was the best hitter in the Eastern league, and is now in AAA. He is R5 eligible.
  • Kyle Teel has an .875 OPS and seems like he will be in AAA/the MLB catching depth picture by the draft signing deadline.
  • Marcelo Mayer's shoulder appears to be fixed; to the best I can determine, he's tied for second in doubles in affiliated baseball with 21, behind only Alec Bohm.
  • Miguel Bleis' shoulder looks great — and he's doubled his walk rate?!?
  • Yoeilin Cespedes has come stateside and is destroying the ball: .290/.380/.550.
  • Roman Anthony is 20 in AA and has an .800 OPS. Not even remotely overmatched at the same age Rafael Devers played in AA.
  • Elmer Rodriguez has traded the second half of his hyphenated surname for like four MPH on his four seamer.
  • Nazzan Zanatello has finally debuted, and looks good in the early going: .261/.382/.457.
  • Justin Slaten looks like a Rule 5 heist.
And in between:
  • Ryan Zeferjahn appeared to have tamed his control issues until what was hopefully just a hiccup in his early AAA appearances. He is R5 eligible.
  • A few of the advanced position-players prospects, Yorke, Hickey, Kavadas, Paulino and Jordan, are sort of in a holding pattern. All five are R5 eligible. I can't see protecting any of these guys (maybe Yorke?), but I bet one gets picked.
  • When we acquired Richard Fitts, he was widely seen as a probable reliever. Now he looks likely to stick as a useful 5/6 SP. The floor is rising, but the ceiling is falling. He is R5 eligible.
  • Chase Meidroth is still Meidrothing with a hilarious .290/.440/.370 line.
  • David Sandlin's a project, but he still looks like a candidate to start.
  • Johanfran Garcia was hitting amazingly until his knee injury.
  • Mikey Romero is finally on the field, and is playing well.
We're going to have to cash a few of these guys in, either at the trade deadline or early in the offseason, because we can't keep them all. Then again, the new rules mean teams are only allowed to have 165 minor leaguers total in their domestic affiliates, so I wonder how that will shift the calculus in rule 5...
You're not wrong, but that's also just kind of how prospects work, particularly any team's top 25-30 prospects. Those guys are the team's top 25-30 precisely because they have demonstrated a positive trajectory. . . until they move up the ladder and suddenly they don't, at which point they drop out of the top 30 and are replaced by someone else. In other words, I think you could do this exercise every year and determine that most of any given team's top 30 prospects are "on a positive trajectory."
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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I would let Lugo get 40 or 50 AAA PAs, and then call him up for corner OF/DH duty if he's playing well and there's still a need.
Agreed.

I posted this in the Minors Forum a little while ago. Seems his improvement this year has come from some adjustments, which makes them feel real to me:

More on Matthew Lugo from David Laurila in FanGraphs:

{Along with playing stellar defense at a new position, Matthew Lugo is slashing .306/.404/.653 with 10 home runs and an Eastern League-best 191 wRC+.

Markedly-improved plate discipline has played a big role in his breakout. Last year, Lugo logged a 5.9% walk rate and a 27.6% strikeout rate. This year those numbers are 13.4% and 22.5%.

The key to his newfound ability to dominate the strike zone?

“Timing,” explained Lugo, who takes his cuts from the right side. “Last year, I had a lot of movement with my hands, which made me inconsistent being on time with the pitcher. My hands were very low, and then when I got to the launch position they were very high; there was a lot of distance for my hands to go through. This year, I’m closer to my launch position before I swing. I also had a [bat] wiggle and this year I just get to my spot with no wiggle. I’m getting into my spot early and have more time to see the pitch, so I’m making better swing decisions.”

...

Positional versatility will not only help Lugo reach the big leagues, it befits his overall skillset. While not elite in any one area, he does most things well.

“I’ve always had a little bit of everything.” concurred Lugo, who is comes off as equal parts humble and confident. “I’m not a guy that has the most power, but I do have power. And I’m not the fastest guy, but I can steal some bases (he has nine this year in 10 attempts). I also feel that I’m an intelligent player who knows how to make adjustments; I’m very conscious of what I need to work on.”}

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-matthew-lugo-has-been-bostons-top-performing-prospect/
 

nvalvo

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I understood you, @Fishy1. I think we all agree that Grissom a) has a good offensive track record, b) is a much-needed RHH, and c) is the right age for our presumptive window. In that context, it would be hard to move him for anything less than a king's ransom — which is why he blocks our other bat-first 2B/LF types, e.g., Yorke and Valdez.

Was surprised he got called up to Worcester, but he's off to a good start there -- 1-4 with a walk yesterday and 2-4 with a double so far today.
I think Yorke's call-up to Worcester was more about clearing AA playing time for Kristian Campbell than anything he had done. Also, with everyone in Boston, Worcester needs bodies!

You're not wrong, but that's also just kind of how prospects work, particularly any team's top 25-30 prospects. Those guys are the team's top 25-30 precisely because they have demonstrated a positive trajectory. . . until they move up the ladder and suddenly they don't, at which point they drop out of the top 30 and are replaced by someone else. In other words, I think you could do this exercise every year and determine that most of any given team's top 30 prospects are "on a positive trajectory."
It's a fair point about logical circularity (every team always has X top prospects, and by definition those are the X players people feel best about), but I don't think it's as undifferentiated as you suggest in terms of both momentum and relative to other systems. Sometimes those are the players people feel best about because of their recent results, and sometimes those are the players people best about despite their recent results.

If you'd done a similar exercise last year around this time, you would've seen a lot more of the latter: the number one and two prospects Mayer and Bleis had suffered season-ending shoulder injuries; Casas was our big rookie position-player promotion, and he had a .697 OPS in Boston — he was about to go on a tear, but we didn't know that yet; Bello was our big just barely non-rookie pitching promotion, and he was allowing a .770 OPS — he, too, was about to go on a tear, but we didn't know that yet; Crawford was less heralded, and he was still pitching in long relief — he, three, was about to go on a tear, but we didn't know that yet; and Brandon Walter had returned from injury with severely diminished stuff; Romero was hurt; Mata was — surprise! — hurt again; Matthew Lugo was awful after surprising to the upside a year earlier. A ton of setbacks in terms of health and performance.

Against which, Rafaela was thriving in AAA and Yorke was playing pretty well in Portland after the disaster in 2022. Wikelman was striking everybody out, but walking 5 per 9. Infield prospect Brainer Bonaci was playing great, but would later be suspended for some sort of serious off-field issue.

While Anthony had been ranked on the basis of his bonus, he hadn't done much as a professional. He would have still been a week away from his surprising promotion to Greenville despite a .700 OPS in low-A; it wasn't until the second half that he would rocket to top-prospectdom on the basis of his ~1.000 OPS at 19 in high A. Teel hadn't been drafted yet.

It was a really different situation, and the lack of prospect depth probably impacted what Bloom felt he could do at the deadline.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Maybe I’m off here but it seems like, for a variety of reasons, hitting prospects continue to do much better in the minors than pitching ones. So, by virtue of being so offensive heavy, the Sox tend to look pretty good. Am I imagining this, is it just a Sox thing or just kind of how baseball is right now?
 

moondog80

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Maybe I’m off here but it seems like, for a variety of reasons, hitting prospects continue to do much better in the minors than pitching ones. So, by virtue of being so offensive heavy, the Sox tend to look pretty good. Am I imagining this, is it just a Sox thing or just kind of how baseball is right now?
You're not wrong about the overall trend, but Baseball America has Luis Perales at 57 in their mid-season top 100. So maybe things are turning around.
 

jon abbey

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You're not wrong, but that's also just kind of how prospects work, particularly any team's top 25-30 prospects. Those guys are the team's top 25-30 precisely because they have demonstrated a positive trajectory. . . until they move up the ladder and suddenly they don't, at which point they drop out of the top 30 and are replaced by someone else. In other words, I think you could do this exercise every year and determine that most of any given team's top 30 prospects are "on a positive trajectory."
As @nvalvo said, the reason this isn't true is that prospect lists aren't really updated that often, they are a lagging indicator. For instance, Spencer Jones is stil on all the top 100 lists (and he should be), but he is rocking a .640 OPS right now in AA and he turned 24 in May.
 

GB5

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O’Neill removed from the game tonight, early word is right knee again. I think both he and Martin are trending towards unable to be healthy enough to be traded at deadline.
 

thestardawg

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Why would we be rushing someone with 15 Aaa at bats and a half season of success to the majors anyway? Not to mention he is not on the 40. Let’s let him have a year of success before we rush him to the big club to rescue a 75-85 win team.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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If someone is going to be added to the 40-man to replace O'Neill, it's far more likely to be a guy like Mark Contreras than Matthew Lugo, at least for now.
 

nvalvo

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Why would we be rushing someone with 15 Aaa at bats and a half season of success to the majors anyway? Not to mention he is not on the 40. Let’s let him have a year of success before we rush him to the big club to rescue a 75-85 win team.
Here's the case:
  • Although he's hitting great now, he was terrible last year. Is he for real? It would be good to learn as much as can be known before the trade deadline.
  • He is not on the 40, but he will need to be by the rule 5 draft or he will be taken.
  • We need a plus RH corner bat. Have we stumbled into one?
  • Both Garrett Cooper, Bobby Dalbec, and Jamie Westbrook all have 40-man spots right now. (I would DFA Cooper, especially if Westbrook or Lugo can at least fake it at 1B.)
  • Lugo could be one of our better trade chips at the deadline, or a key depth piece next year and potential future middle-of-the-order LF/DH. We need to find out if we can.
 

simplicio

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I wrote about the potential for Yorke to be claimed in the rule 5 draft in another thread:

I could see either Seattle or Colorado claiming Yorke. Both have negative production at 2B this year.

Seattle's Polanco experience is going poorly (plus he's now injured) and I don't see them picking up his option for '25. Dylan Moore is controlled next year and has acquitted himself well there, but can also play all over the field. Ryan Bliss and the rest of their prospects at the position are not demonstrating upside. Seems easy enough for them to carry Yorke and option Bliss, and Moore can play wherever if Nick can stick.

The Rockies have another year of Brendan Rogers, but he's never managed to be an average hitter and, like the M's, they really don't have anything in their pipeline.
But jumping off from there, does it make sense to try to work a deadline trade with Seattle or Colorado where we ship out one of Grissom/Valdez/Hamilton/Yorke? Do they even have anything we're looking for? Neither can really address the immediate need for an MLB RH power bat, so I think it would most likely be about clearing 40 man space for someone(s) further off.

Edit: a few hours after posting this, Colorado put 2B Brendan Rogers on the IL and promoted Amael Amador, who is a) their top prospect and b) the owner of a .666 OPS in AA this season and has never played above that level. They have nobody else remotely close to contributing, so we'll see how he does.
 
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thestardawg

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Here's the case:
  • Although he's hitting great now, he was terrible last year. Is he for real? It would be good to learn as much as can be known before the trade deadline.
  • He is not on the 40, but he will need to be by the rule 5 draft or he will be taken.
  • We need a plus RH corner bat. Have we stumbled into one?
  • Both Garrett Cooper, Bobby Dalbec, and Jamie Westbrook all have 40-man spots right now. (I would DFA Cooper, especially if Westbrook or Lugo can at least fake it at 1B.)
  • Lugo could be one of our better trade chips at the deadline, or a key depth piece next year and potential future middle-of-the-order LF/DH. We need to find out if we can.
I think the potential of ruining him when you promote him prematurely and he goes 1-25 if high. Let him acclimate to AAA nd start to dominate there first. He can be added to the 40 man after the season.

Im excited for his breakout too but he's had two months of true success in his career so far.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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Nov 24, 2007
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I think the potential of ruining him when you promote him prematurely and he goes 1-25 if high. Let him acclimate to AAA nd start to dominate there first. He can be added to the 40 man after the season.

Im excited for his breakout too but he's had two months of true success in his career so far.
The bolded isn't exactly true. He posted an .844 OPS for A+ Greenville in 2022.
BTW, his wrist is ok from the HBP on Friday, just a bone bruise.
 

curly2

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Jul 8, 2003
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Dave Dombrowski doesn't believer you have to wait for the deadline--he traded for Steve Pearce on June 28. The Phillies blew a ninth-inning lead to the Mets, and Kenley Jansen looked dynamite today. Breslow should call Dombrowski with a very Sox-friendly deal and see if DD bites.
 

nvalvo

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Jul 16, 2005
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Bumping: It's June 20th, and the Sox positively thrived through the toughest stretch of their schedule to date, and now sit at 39–35, 2 games behind KC for the third WC slot and 2.5 behind Minnesota for the second. That is emphatically "in the mix," IMO, especially given that they expect some key contributors back.

The trade deadline is July 30th at 6 PM. Before that date, we will have:

3 at Cincinnati (35–38 as of today)
3 vs. Toronto (35–38)
3 vs. San Diego (37–40)
3 at Miami (24–49)
3 at New York (51–24)
3 vs. Oakland (27–48)
3 vs. Kansas City (41–33)
———All Star Break———
3 @ Los Angeles (46–29)
3 @ Colorado (25–48)
3 vs. New York (51–24)
1 vs. Seattle (44–31 and then two more games following the deadline.)

The collective June 20th winning percentage of that group, despite nine games against NYY and LAD, is only 0.483. If we can regain strength, we should be able to get a real head of steam going, especially in the period before the ASG.The goal should be to be in a playoff spot by the All Star Game, IMO. Those three games with Kansas City will be important.

If this happens, that should in my view incline things more towards buying than selling. I still believe we need to do both, but I would want to see more priority placed on 2024 than I would have said if you'd asked me two weeks ago.
 

HfxBob

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Nov 13, 2005
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Bumping: It's June 20th, and the Sox positively thrived through the toughest stretch of their schedule to date, and now sit at 39–35, 2 games behind KC for the third WC slot and 2.5 behind Minnesota for the second. That is emphatically "in the mix," IMO, especially given that they expect some key contributors back.
And the numbers look even better when you count yesterday's games. :)
 
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Mueller Lite

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Oct 31, 2016
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The 4 obvious names to sell are Jansen, Martin, O'Neil and Pivetta especially if they fall out of contention in the next 4-6 weeks. I think they trade away Jansen and Martin regardless. Red Sox wont be interested in extending QOs to either of them and there are some arms in the pen already poised to take their innings and I'm sure they'll add an arm or two as buyers if they're contending.

O'Neil is a very interesting case and will depend on where the Red Sox are in the standings come mid-July. They could probably withstand losing O'Neil and also still contend for a WC spot but you're playing with fire if they do that even with Wilyer seeming pretty legit. It would be possible but things would get thin.

They should really consider extending Pivetta as the veteran anchor to this rotation. You have Eovaldi-lite in your rotation, ready to mentor this young staff and it'll probably take Eovaldi's contract with the Rangers or less to retain him. Bello himself said the most important people in his development were Pedro and Nate Eovaldi. Don't make the same mistake twice and let him walk if you can keep him at a reasonable price. You can't throw out all young guns without that veteran presence in the clubhouse.
 

HfxBob

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Nov 13, 2005
832
The 4 obvious names to sell are Jansen, Martin, O'Neil and Pivetta especially if they fall out of contention in the next 4-6 weeks. I think they trade away Jansen and Martin regardless. Red Sox wont be interested in extending QOs to either of them and there are some arms in the pen already poised to take their innings and I'm sure they'll add an arm or two as buyers if they're contending.
I just don't understand the concept of trading Jansen "regardless". He's been performing like a stud lately. A 2 scoreless inning job that led to a win, a 4 out save, an emergency last out to preserve another win when Keller made things too interesting, etc.
 

Mueller Lite

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Oct 31, 2016
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Somerville, MA
I totally get it. I just think this is what the Red Sox will do. Selling high on someone they couldn't move in the offseason who they will not be bringing back. Especially if they have arms in the pen currently that they feel confident can take those high leverage innings. Closers can get some great value at the deadline in the right deal. An exec like Dombrowski would probably pay a very high price for two months of Jansen.
 

simplicio

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Apr 11, 2012
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I love what Jansen's been doing and I want him to stay cause I think we're actually contending for real.

But on the other hand, last year KC got a couple dudes in exchange for an Aroldis Chapman rental and one of them was Cole Ragans, so if that sort of return is out there I will carry Kenley to the airport myself.
 

HfxBob

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Nov 13, 2005
832
I totally get it. I just think this is what the Red Sox will do. Selling high on someone they couldn't move in the offseason who they will not be bringing back. Especially if they have arms in the pen currently that they feel confident can take those high leverage innings.
Who's going to replace Jansen, though? Hendriks? Maybe, but pretty hard to count on that. Slaten? He seems like a decent late inning guy, but there's no way they feel as confident in him as they do in Jansen. Plus it's better to have Jansen + Hendriks + Slaten.

It all depends on whether they think they have a real shot at going somewhere. If they believe they do, I can't see them moving Jansen.
 

joe dokes

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Jul 18, 2005
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Who's going to replace Jansen, though? Hendriks? Maybe, but pretty hard to count on that. Slaten? He seems like a decent late inning guy, but there's no way they feel as confident in him as they do in Jansen. Plus it's better to have Jansen + Hendriks + Slaten.

It all depends on whether they think they have a real shot at going somewhere. If they believe they do, I can't see them moving Jansen.
Maybe not "as confident," but "confident enough." I can never really escape my own bias that "closer is a job description, not a skillset." I understand that a lot of GMs -- all of whom are better GMs than I am -- disagree. So, given his continuing effectiveness, I think that Jansen, maybe as part of a package, can net a pretty high return. I *think* his one inning every few days can be replaced internally.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Jul 19, 2005
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I do think that with the glut of MIs and the impending 40-man crunch, it does make sense to trade away a 2B. I just don’t see how they can possibly keep all of Yorke, Meidroth, Grissom, Valdez, Hamilton, and Romy (and this isn’t even the complete list). Some of those guys have more trade value than others, of course. I’ve been assuming Yorke was the most trade-able since like last year, but now I’m suddenly wondering if the odd guy out is Grissom? Obviously we haven’t really seen what he’s capable of here and the injuries might give some other teams pause, but the potential is still there. After all, he did get the Braves their best SP this year…
 

HfxBob

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Nov 13, 2005
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Maybe not "as confident," but "confident enough." I can never really escape my own bias that "closer is a job description, not a skillset." I understand that a lot of GMs -- all of whom are better GMs than I am -- disagree. So, given his continuing effectiveness, I think that Jansen, maybe as part of a package, can net a pretty high return. I *think* his one inning every few days can be replaced internally.
OK, here's another way to look at it:

Jansen has the second highest fWAR of our relievers, 0.9, with Slaten at 1.2. (I always multiply by 3 for relievers, so that would be 2.7 and 3.6. Both very strong numbers.)
Bernardino 0.6
Booser 0.4
Weissert 0.2
Kelly 0.2

To me saying we'll be fine without our second-best reliever is not much different from saying we'll be fine without our second-best starter or hitter.