Who to sell at the trade deadline?

[Rovin Romine]

Point taken except that an actual good team would require the services of a closer more on the order of 65 appearances, or so — and many more than 7 back to back appearances. Sox babied Martin last year for a reason that will not be mysterious to potential trading partners.

Curious, so I looked at the AL post-season teams for 2023.

Team, Primary Closer, Appearances, Back to back appearances, 1 day appearances.​

BOS, Martin, 55, 7, 20 (with @Red(s)HawksFan caveats above)​

TX, Smith, 57, 8, 21​

HOU, Pressly, 65, 15, 19 (and sucking this year.)​

MIN, Duran, 59, 11,13​

TOR, Romano, 59, 12, 15 (also sucking this year.)​

TBR, Fairbanks, 49, 9, 11 (sucking this year against everyone but us.)​

BAL, Bautista, 56, 11, 18 (60 day IL this year.)​

I think maybe a DOB broadcast-inanity earworm has gotten to you on this issue?

 

[radsoxfan]

I like the idea of eating more of a contract to buy a better prospect (like the Sox did with Sale...ignoring the fact that so far Grissom looks terrible)

This could work with Jansen, but unfortunately probably wont work for Yoshida. What would Yoshida get on the open market right now? 2/10M? I don't even know.

If someone is way overpaid, they have to have some legitimate value over a replacement player for this plan to work. Paying extra or even all of a contract for someone who is worth next to nothing at baseline anything doesn't buy you much.

 

[chrisfont9]

This is a fair POV and tbh I had forgotten O'Neill was on a 1-yr deal, so that makes a little more sense but I do feel we are a couple months from entertaining it.

Oh, sure, we are just chatting for the hell of it. The Sox certainly aren't moving into sell mode yet.

[Edit] Actually I suppose it's not impossible that they would send out feelers re O'Neill. It would be risky, basically meaning more Romy at short, but it's worth seeing if there's a buyer trying to beat the competition to market.

 

[catomatic]

Curious, so I looked at the AL post-season teams for 2023.

Team, Primary Closer, Appearances, Back to back appearances, 1 day appearances.​

BOS, Martin, 55, 7, 20 (with @Red(s)HawksFan caveats above)​

TX, Smith, 57, 8, 21​

HOU, Pressly, 65, 15, 19 (and sucking this year.)​

MIN, Duran, 59, 11,13​

TOR, Romano, 59, 12, 15 (also sucking this year.)​

TBR, Fairbanks, 49, 9, 11 (sucking this year against everyone but us.)​

BAL, Bautista, 56, 11, 18 (60 day IL this year.)​

I think maybe a DOB broadcast-inanity earworm has gotten to you on this issue?

I don’t think it’s even as defensible as that. He was just lights out, carrying a sub-2.00 era all year and I wanted him on the hill more. There was a fair bit of discussion around them protecting him and limiting his outings, but the numbers in the rear-view mirror definitely appear larger than what my memory offers.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Nobody expects the Sox to make any deep run, or probably any run in the postseason. So, after the Celtics finish off everybody for #18, and if the Sox tear off some useful structure in trade for prospects, there isn’t much hope for winning local teams again until October. Lovely. Fuckit, maybe we’ll go to Europe for the summer.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Jansen
Martin
Pivetta - sell or offer QO?
O’Neill - sell or offer QO?
Hendricks - value to TBD after he returns

These 5 are our most valuable ‘assets’ IMO. Can we get a good starting pitching prospect back? Or do we prioritise the outfield?

If Pivetta is healthy is he more valuable traded or as starting depth for next year when he’s offered the QO?

Agree with whom they should sell, possibly excepting Hendricks. He's still under contract for next season, so I'm not in nearly the hurry to move him that I am the 4 that you mentioned (assuming Pivetta isn't extended, which is still my preference, and I've been on this for going on two years now, but it doesn't look like it's happening).

As such, for two of these guys (Martin and O'Neill) I don't think they're fetching all that much on their own. Jansen and Pivetta I can see getting something really interesting for, to be clear.

I outlined this the other day - and in prior threads - but what I'm hoping for is to find a "buyer" that has holes in all those places - back end of the bullpen, OF, and everyone always wants SP, obv, and to fill so many holes that you're able to get an actual return.

Just as an example, is there any chance that the Cubbies are trading one of Matt Shaw or James Triantos for half a season of Jansen - absolutely not.

But with their issues at the back of the bullpen (pretty much up and down) and some injuries / issues in the rotation might they consider one of if them if you're filling their 9th inning, giving them another 8th inning guy, upgrading Hendricks to Pivetta and giving them O'Neill as another option to keep Happ and Suzuki healthy (both have hammy issues, I believe) rotating them in and out of DH and the corner OF spots - possibly.

Same thing applies to LAD and maybe Vargas (though they don't really have a need for PIvetta, but the other three they would).

That's the type of thing I hope Breslow is (already) quietly exploring and targeting.

 

[Benj4ever]

Jansen - yes, trade, because you've got Hendriks coming back and he can slide into the closer's role
Martin - yes, trade
Pivetta - yes, trade - just plug Giolito into his spot in 2025
O'Neill - hmmmm....I am unsure about this one, as I've said in a previous post. I think I'd explore an extension, hopefully on reasonable money, because he's one of their only sources of RH power and fills a huge need on this team and seems to be thriving in Boston
Hendriks - see above. Keep him, and he replaces Jansen

I'd also explore trading McGuire, not because he's been bad for them but because he's been pretty solid and teams always could use solid catching, and he's a LH hitter and Teel should be making his way up to create a Teel/Wong catching tandem.

I'd also explore trading Yoshida. Personally, I like him and want him to do well HERE. And it's not like he's been terrible. He's got a 107 ops+ and has a career ops+ of 109. But given all their LH outfielders, he's just not a great fit in this organization. He definitely has some value and a team with a DH spot probably could really use a guy like him. I bet you could get something useful for him from someone.

Pivetta? No. No one knew who Giolito was before the injury, and even less so now. Not that hyped on a Martin trade, either, unless some more potential bullpen depth develops quickly.

 

[jon abbey]

No one knew who Giolito was before the injury, and even less so now.

Huh? He was 6th, 7th and 11th in the Cy Young voting from 2019-2021, one of the top pitchers in the AL three years running. Before that, he was a high-profile prospect after being drafted 16th in the 1st round by WAS in 2012.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Pivetta? No. No one knew who Giolito was before the injury, and even less so now. Not that hyped on a Martin trade, either, unless some more potential bullpen depth develops quickly.

Martin is a free agent at the end of the year. If the Sox are trading at the deadline, there's little reason to hang on to him. He's 38 so it's not like he's got a long future in front of him. If it comes to it, they can try to re-sign him over the winter but I expect they have some young guys in the system to whom they want to give a shot.

 

[BaseballJones]

Pivetta? No. No one knew who Giolito was before the injury, and even less so now. Not that hyped on a Martin trade, either, unless some more potential bullpen depth develops quickly.

You mean YOU didn’t know who Giolito was. 99.9% of the rest of SOSH did.

 

[Benj4ever]

Huh? He was 6th, 7th and 11th in the Cy Young voting from 2019-2021, one of the top pitchers in the AL three years running. Before that, he was a high-profile prospect after being drafted 16th in the 1st round by WAS in 2012.

Yeah, but after 2021, he stunk. So, do you think you're going to get the 2019-2021 Giolito, or the 2022-2023 Giolito? It's not as simple as it might seem.

 

[jon abbey]

You mean YOU didn’t know who Giolito was. 99.9% of the rest of SOSH did.

I answered this post also but maybe they meant that no one knows what Giolito will be post-injury? That makes more sense anyway.

 

[jon abbey]

Yeah, but after 2021, he stunk. So, do you think you're going to get the 2019-2021 Giolito, or the 2022-2023 Giolito? It's not as simple as it might seem.

Right, it's just your phrasing, it makes it seem like you never heard of him before, confused both me and @BaseballJones .

 

[BaseballJones]

Ok that does make more sense!

 

[Benj4ever]

I answered this post also but maybe they meant that no one knows what Giolito will be post-injury? That makes more sense anyway.

Sorry, I could have phrased that better. And yes, I live in the D.C. area, so yeah, I've heard of Giolito before (LOL)!

 

[dynomite]

The good news this year is that Casas is due back a full month before the deadline. So we'll have a good idea what the team looks like with him back in the lineup. It's not like last year where all the reinforcements were due back after the deadline and it was too late to do anything when they stunk.

Yeah, having Casas back (fingers crossed) for a month will be helpful for evaluation purposes. After the game on 4/20 when Casas had to exit, the Sox were 13-10 (.565, 91-win pace). Since then, they've gone 11-14 (.44, 71-win pace). Tons of noise in those small samples (Story was healthy for some of the initial games, TON was hurt for a few games, etc. etc.), so obviously I'm not suggesting Casas is responsible for a 20-win-pace swing (indeed, looks like they scored 4.2 runs/game before he went down and 4.6/runs a game since, although the 17-run outburst helps there... again, small samples are noisy). And while sure, you could just estimate what Casas's WAR would have been had he played, I also wonder about the impact elsewhere on the roster as they had to shuffle the 40-man to add Cooper and Smith.

Anyway, all that said, to the extent it's helpful to look at standings before Memorial Day, as today begins they're .500 and only half a game out of the 2nd & 3rd Wild Cards, within 1 game of the Twins, Rays, Tigers, and Rangers, with the Astros suddenly creeping up in the rear view. If they're within striking distance in July, selling despite having finished 5th the last two years feels like a lot to ask of the fanbase.

Jansen and Pivetta I can see getting something really interesting for, to be clear.

A point of comparison here is just last year when the Royals got their new ace Cole Ragans from the Rangers for a half season of Aroldis Chapman.

I imagine a Kenley rental would be an attractive add for a number of teams (Orioles, Phillies, Cubs, maybe Dodgers). Some interesting pitching prospects in those farm systems.

 

[chrisfont9]

for a bit of perspective, the Sox are currently 0.5 games out of the last WC spot. BUT! It's really five teams for one spot right now, so that sounds more promising than it actually is. Unless KC falls apart, they will only ever be vying for a last spot, so even when they get some health luck and some XW-L luck, chances are they'll still be little more than a face in the crowd. The AL is very strong right now; they are tied with Texas and the five teams close to that last spot doesn't even include the Astors.

So while they shouldn't be in sell mode anytime soon, they would have to be a pretty strong WC contender to not be sellers at the deadline. Probably a lot of moaning will ensue when that happens, but I'd wager that they are sellers for one more season. And obviously they are perfectly set up to sell Kenley. Pivetta, no; Whitlock's injury makes keeping him a very high priority.

 

[Fishy1]

@chrisfont9 has the right attitude. Half a game out of the wild card and they have the 9th best run differential in all of baseball. All of the teams ahead of them are ten games above .500 or better. Very few teams lower than them have a winning record, and even fewer are considerably above .500.

If they keep up this run differential, I'd argue they're almost definitely going to win more games, and are very likely to secure a spot in the wild card. Yes, yes, they've had a couple of early season blowouts, and yes, there's early season caveats, but at the end of the day this team has managed to score 30 more runs than they've allowed, and they've done it on the backs of exceptional pitching and a decent offense that stands to see some improvements from key positions.

Which is to say maybe they're be sellers at the deadline. Falling four games behind your pythag is pretty brutal, but I think if this team can keep pitching this way and get some offense from SS, 2B and 1B, they'll go on a fucking tear.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I don’t really see a super compelling reason to sell anyways- they don’t need to shed salary, and while you can never have too many prospects, there isn’t really an urgent need for them right now, and they don’t really have viable replacements for the players they’d trade- so it would make the team quite a bit worse for an unclear and likely minimal long term gain. It would also be a really bad look for a team on the fringes.

 

[Fishy1]

I don’t really see a super compelling reason to sell anyways- they don’t need to shed salary, and while you can never have too many prospects, there isn’t really an urgent need for them right now, and they don’t really have viable replacements for the players they’d trade- so it would make the team quite a bit worse for an unclear and likely minimal long term gain. It would also be a really bad look for a team on the fringes.

Yeah, I mean, if the right deal comes along, sure, go for it. And if you can really get bang for your buck for O'Neill, I think you'd have to consider it given his injury history... on the other hand, if you're in the hunt for the playoffs or even leading in the wild card, and you deal a guy who's giving you an OPS+ of 150 (something he's done before in a full season!), what the fuck are you doing? It's baseball, anything can happen in the playoffs.

As for dealing guys like Jansen or Martin... I mean, yeah, if Hendriks is back and looking healthy, and Kelly, Bernardino, Booser, Slaten, and Weissert are all for real*, and Campbell is back and healthy, and you can snag a couple of good prospects, sure. Relief pitchers, even the good ones, are more fungible than position players or starting pitchers. On the other hand, it sends exactly the wrong message to the players, and the return is likely marginal.

* How nuts is it that they've been this good at identifying and optimizing these guys? Considering none of these guys had pitched in the bigs a season ago and now... I mean, Kelly is the only one I really look out and think "it's smoke and mirrors" because he's walking so many people.

 

[chrisfont9]

Yeah, I mean, if the right deal comes along, sure, go for it. And if you can really get bang for your buck for O'Neill, I think you'd have to consider it given his injury history... on the other hand, if you're in the hunt for the playoffs or even leading in the wild card, and you deal a guy who's giving you an OPS+ of 150 (something he's done before in a full season!), what the fuck are you doing? It's baseball, anything can happen in the playoffs.

As for dealing guys like Jansen or Martin... I mean, yeah, if Hendriks is back and looking healthy, and Kelly, Bernardino, Booser, Slaten, and Weissert are all for real*, and Campbell is back and healthy, and you can snag a couple of good prospects, sure. Relief pitchers, even the good ones, are more fungible than position players or starting pitchers. On the other hand, it sends exactly the wrong message to the players, and the return is likely marginal.

* How nuts is it that they've been this good at identifying and optimizing these guys? Considering none of these guys had pitched in the bigs a season ago and now... I mean, Kelly is the only one I really look out and think "it's smoke and mirrors" because he's walking so many people.

Agree on a lot of this. They have been very good at finding guys! Clearly Bloom's team knew what they were doing, even if he himself maybe wasn't a deal-closer in the bigger picture or whatever they didn't like. And clearly Bres and Bailey have blended some continuity with some new ideas. Also I am all for going for the playoffs, though they can still sell Jansen and O'Neill if the rest of the team is healthy and they're somewhat redundant (though as a RHH maybe that isn't the case with O'Neill).

 

[dynomite]

Which is to say maybe they're be sellers at the deadline. Falling four games behind your pythag is pretty brutal, but I think if this team can keep pitching this way and get some offense from SS, 2B and 1B, they'll go on a fucking tear.

Right. As you say, anything can happen in the playoffs. I don't mean to keep banging this drum, but last year the 84-win 3rd Wild Card in the NL faced the 90-win 2nd Wild Card team in the AL in the World Series.

If the team has a chance to make the playoffs, I certainly hope they'll try to do so (and I think it's easy to do so without sacrificing their chances in 2025 & 2026).

As for dealing guys like Jansen or Martin... I mean, yeah, if Hendriks is back and looking healthy, and Kelly, Bernardino, Booser, Slaten, and Weissert are all for real*, and Campbell is back and healthy, and you can snag a couple of good prospects, sure. Relief pitchers, even the good ones, are more fungible than position players or starting pitchers. On the other hand, it sends exactly the wrong message to the players, and the return is likely marginal.

I will say when it comes to Kenley, there are a few recent notable examples of returns for Closers at the trade deadline:

- In 2020, Bloom's best deal (probably?) was getting Pivetta & Seabold from the Phillies for Workman & Hembree.

- In 2022, the Orioles sent the Twins regression candidate RP Jorge Lopez in exchange for a package of prospects that included RHP Yennier Cano (who turned into their setup guy) and LHP Cade Povich, who's their #9 prospect on MLB.com.

- And last year, as I mentioned, the Royals got Cole Ragans for half a season of Aroldis Chapman.

It's especially frustrating that Whitlock is gone for the season, since it feels like a natural move could have been to sell Kenley and slide Whitlock back into the 8th/9th innings.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Jansen has almost no experience as a set up man, though. He’s been strictly a one inning closer for 13 years; and he’s only been worth more than 1 bWAR in one of the last five full seasons. I question how much value he would have to a team that is looking for relief help but not a closer. Martin seems more valuable. Maybe I’m wrong and overthinking this- good pitchers are good pitchers after all.

 

[dynomite]

Jansen has almost no experience as a set up man, though. He’s been strictly a one inning closer for 13 years; and he’s only been worth more than 1 bWAR in one of the last five full seasons. I question how much value he would have to a team that is looking for relief help but not a closer. Martin seems more valuable. Maybe I’m wrong and overthinking this- good pitchers are good pitchers after all.

Eh, I'm not too worried about that. As you say, good pitchers are good pitchers, and Jansen would almost certainly close for the Phillies, and likely for the Dodgers and Orioles as well.

The Rangers didn't seem too worried about Aroldis Chapman's role when they traded for him last year, and until last season he had almost exclusively been a closer.

 

[simplicio]

Nightengale (so Nightengale warning obv):

The Boston Red Sox plan to trade All-Star veteran closer Kenley Jansen by the trade deadline. He’s earning $16 million this year and the Red Sox have no interest in bringing him back.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Royals seem like a good destination for Kenley, don’t they?

 

[dynomite]

Royals seem like a good destination for Kenley, don’t they?

Eh, McArthur has been great for them and as a small market team I’m not sure they’ll want to pay much of that contract.

The Phillies have always made the most sense for Kenley to me — Dombrowski seems to like traditional closers (having acquired Kimbrel in both Boston and Philly), a true “closer” is basically their only need and he wouldn’t be displacing anyone, and they have the resources to pay him.

Dodgers reunion could make sense, but Phillips/Treinen/Hudson has been a great back end so I know if they’re as motivated.

Cubs would make some sense as they’re also lacking a traditional closer, but their organization seems more comfortable with that as an approach.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Of course Jansen will be on the block if the Sox are selling at the deadline. That's not exactly breaking news. The only thing that could possibly stop it is if the team is unquestionably in contention and they decide to roll the dice on making the post-season. And even then, there are scenarios in which the team is contending, are "buyers" at the deadline, and they still move Jansen.

The only thing Nightengale-y about that report is the certainty in his words "plan to trade" rather than something like "are open to trading"

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Eh, McArthur has been great for them and as a small market team I’m not sure they’ll want to pay much of that contract.

The Phillies have always made the most sense for Kenley to me — Dombrowski seems to like traditional closers (having acquired Kimbrel in both Boston and Philly), a true “closer” is basically their only need and he wouldn’t be displacing anyone, and they have the resources to pay him.

Dodgers reunion could make sense, but Phillips/Treinen/Hudson has been a great back end so I know if they’re as motivated.

Cubs would make some sense as they’re also lacking a traditional closer, but their organization seems more comfortable with that as an approach.

I am assuming any trade of Jensen will include the Sox paying bulk of his salary. They don’t really need the salary relief, do they? Agree that Philly could be a fit, less so LA.

 

[YTF]

Of course Jansen will be on the block if the Sox are selling at the deadline. That's not exactly breaking news. The only thing that could possibly stop it is if the team is unquestionably in contention and they decide to roll the dice on making the post-season. And even then, there are scenarios in which the team is contending, are "buyers" at the deadline, and they still move Jansen.

The only thing Nightengale-y about that report is the certainty in his words "plan to trade" rather than something like "are open to trading"

I'm very interested to see how Breslow handles the trade deadline. If we do find ourselves in contention and the pen is still a strength and healthy I think at least one of Martin or Jansen is moved unless the team REALLY catches fire these next 7-8 weeks. If they are hanging around for the last WC spot I hope we see the team as both buyer and seller.

 

[E5 Yaz]

If they are hanging around for the last WC spot I hope we see the team as both buyer and seller.

The Bloom Approach

 

[YTF]

The Bloom Approach

Sure if you see it that way. I see a much different roster (though that could change over the course of the next two months) and a different guy driving the bus. It's been said that Bloom became a pretty unpopular guy to deal with at the deadline with a couple of GMs/CBOs saying that they they had deals done with Bloom only to have him try to change the parameters of what they thought had been agreed on. You get that reputation and the next thing you know is that in the final hours of the deadline guys aren't going to waste precious time by taking your call if someone else is on the line.

 

[JBJ_HOF]

The Bloom Approach

Literally everything else has been, nearly verbatim with what Breslow says, so why stop with the deadline.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

EDIT: nm, it’s a bad look

 

[Doug Branscombe]

https://fansided.com/posts/braves-red-sox-trade-rumors-kenley-jansen-tyler-o-neill-package


Atlanta Braves - RECEIVE
OF Tyler O'Neill
RHP Kenley Jansen

Boston Red Sox - RECEIVE
RHP Darius Vines #8 prospect
RHP Cade Kuehler #14 prospect
OF Jesse Franklin V #26 prospect

Thoughts on this, I like the influx of young pitchers to the farm system.

 

[shaggydog2000]

https://fansided.com/posts/braves-red-sox-trade-rumors-kenley-jansen-tyler-o-neill-package


Atlanta Braves - RECEIVE
OF Tyler O'Neill
RHP Kenley Jansen

Boston Red Sox - RECEIVE
RHP Darius Vines
RHP Cade Kuehler
OF Jesse Franklin V

Thoughts on this?

I think it's completely random conjecture from a dude who is trying to generate #content and has zero inside knowledge.

 

[nvalvo]

I think it's completely random conjecture from a dude who is trying to generate #content and has zero inside knowledge.

Yes, it's a fake internet trade (and a light package). But it raises the prospect that, with the Acuña injury, there may be an opportunity to shop O'Neill to a win-now contender that is desperate for a tools-y RHH outfielder.

 

[BravesField]

https://fansided.com/posts/braves-red-sox-trade-rumors-kenley-jansen-tyler-o-neill-package


Atlanta Braves - RECEIVE
OF Tyler O'Neill
RHP Kenley Jansen

Boston Red Sox - RECEIVE
RHP Darius Vines #8 prospect
RHP Cade Kuehler #14 prospect
OF Jesse Franklin V #26 prospect

Thoughts on this, I like the influx of young pitchers to the farm system.

I don't think so.

Vines and Franklin (I believe), would have to be added to the sox 40 man roster this offseason and I don't think Atlanta will add either guy. And I can't see the Sox adding them either.

 

[amfox1]

Early thoughts on trade partners:

Jansen/Martin - Orioles, Royals, Phillies, Dodgers, Brewers, Mariners, Padres
Pivetta - Braves, Guardians, Brewers, Astros
O'Neill - Royals, Phillies, Dodgers, Guardians, Mariners, Twins

 

[bosockboy]

O’Neill would be a great Acuna replacement rental for the Braves.

 

[iddoc]

O’Neill would be a great Acuna replacement rental for the Braves.

Unfortunately he would be more likely to keep Acuna company on the IL.

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

Early thoughts on trade partners:

Jansen/Martin - Orioles, Royals, Phillies, Dodgers, Brewers, Mariners, Padres
Pivetta - Braves, Guardians, Brewers, Astros
O'Neill - Royals, Phillies, Dodgers, Guardians, Mariners, Twins

The problem with San Diego is they are loathe to take on money right now. Even the Arraez trade had outgoing salary to keep them from adding to the payroll. Honestly, all of these guys would be of interest to SD to some degree, but if they aren't taking on money, someone like Jansen isn't an option for them unless Boston is paying the freight (which isn't a terrible idea to buy a prospect, but who knows if both sides are interested in that kind of deal).

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

The Sox don’t need to shed payroll, though. Unless Henry purely wants to save cash, I don’t think that should be an obstacle - they are under the thresholds so paying most or all of a traded players contract shouldn’t be an issue.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

The Sox don’t need to shed payroll, though. Unless Henry purely wants to save cash, I don’t think that should be an obstacle - they are under the thresholds so paying most or all of a traded players contract shouldn’t be an issue.

Normally I'd 100% agree with you, but I have no idea what the Sox... or JH's financial situation even is. Wouldn't shock me to find out that they end up doing some worse trade over $5M remaining dollars.

 

[Cassvt2023]

Yes to trading Jansen and Martin. Neither has a chance to come back next year, and bullpen arms aren't as difficult to replace, even if they are still in the wild card hunt. True contenders will pay up for proven veteran arms, even if we have to pay some of their salary.

No to trading Pivetta and/or O'Neill unless they are blown away. They are potential candidates for extensions or QO's in offseason, and they both fill more of a need this year if we're playing meaningful games in the late summer and potentially in the fall.

 

[nvalvo]

The problem with San Diego is they are loathe to take on money right now. Even the Arraez trade had outgoing salary to keep them from adding to the payroll. Honestly, all of these guys would be of interest to SD to some degree, but if they aren't taking on money, someone like Jansen isn't an option for them unless Boston is paying the freight (which isn't a terrible idea to buy a prospect, but who knows if both sides are interested in that kind of deal).

Isn't that a good thing?

Normally I'd 100% agree with you, but I have no idea what the Sox... or JH's financial situation even is. Wouldn't shock me to find out that they end up doing some worse trade over $5M remaining dollars.

Okay, it wouldn't shock you. But do we have any, you know, basis for believing that things are that dire?

Declining to sign a big-ticket starting pitcher over the offseason was disappointing (but it looks like a more defensible decision now than it did at the time!), but it is a pretty different thing than arguing over Kenley Jansen's $8m remaining salary. And the extensions to Bello and Rafaela and the signing of Hendriks are both expenditures that did not strictly need to be made now.

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

Isn't that a good thing?

Okay, it wouldn't shock you. But do we have any, you know, basis for believing that things are that dire?

Declining to sign a big-ticket starting pitcher over the offseason was disappointing (but it looks like a more defensible decision now than it did at the time!), but it is a pretty different thing than arguing over Kenley Jansen's $8m remaining salary. And the extensions to Bello and Rafaela and the signing of Hendriks are both expenditures that did not strictly need to be made now.

Absolutely, as long as San Diego is interested in that kind of trade. We just don't know that they are. They've given up a number of prospects in recent years, and while their system is still good, it's pretty top heavy.

I'm sure there's a way to make a deal work. It's just a bit more complicated with San Diego than it would be with a team like the Dodgers.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Yes to trading Jansen and Martin. Neither has a chance to come back next year, and bullpen arms aren't as difficult to replace, even if they are still in the wild card hunt. True contenders will pay up for proven veteran arms, even if we have to pay some of their salary.

No to trading Pivetta and/or O'Neill unless they are blown away. They are potential candidates for extensions or QO's in offseason, and they both fill more of a need this year if we're playing meaningful games in the late summer and potentially in the fall.

I'm pretty much the same - trade Jansen/Martin. Keep Pivetta and/or O'Neill if they're extension/resign candidates.

Where I'd mildly disagree is if we're still in the WC hunt. Then the return for J or M would have to be significant, and we have to have someone ready to step in. Details matter of course. But they shouldn't wave a white flag at the deadline if they're still in it.

As far as the QO goes. . .where are we on the compensation chart? If we're essentially receiving a pick just before the third round for a rejected QO, what's the value of that, and how much should it play into a trade scenario? O'Neill himself was a third round pick in 2013, and Wong was one in 2017. If you skim along the years, looking at the third round only, there are some nice players in there - a couple of sleepers, and a handful of 5-10 WAR guys, but about half of them don't make it to the majors at all, or don't produce when they arrive.

 

[simplicio]

As far as the QO goes. . .where are we on the compensation chart? If we're essentially receiving a pick just before the third round for a rejected QO, what's the value of that, and how much should it play into a trade scenario? O'Neill himself was a third round pick in 2013, and Wong was one in 2017. If you skim along the years, looking at the third round only, there are some nice players in there - a couple of sleepers, and a handful of 5-10 WAR guys, but about half of them don't make it to the majors at all, or don't produce when they arrive.

Roman Anthony was a compensation pick.

And even if you don't have a surefire guy lined up there, the extra $2m or so is a lot of additional flexibility in the rest of the draft.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Roman Anthony was a compensation pick.

And even if you don't have a surefire guy lined up there, the extra $2m or so is a lot of additional flexibility in the rest of the draft.

Yep - just trying to calibrate the value as opposed to trading O'Neill at some point during the season.