When to get excited?

Deathofthebambino

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Off the top of my head, the Sonics fell behind 0-3 in the 96 Finals against the Bulls, then got the series to 3-2 before losing. The Bulls had HCA, so it doesn't directly compare to this situation, but it's the one instance I can think of right away.
The FInals were a different format though. The Finals were a 2-3-2 format from 1985-2013. The 2-2-1-1-1 format only applied to the conference playoffs until 2013, so both of those Sonics wins came on their home floor after falling behind 0-3.
 

BaseballJones

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The other thing is: sometimes teams can just run out of gas. By the end of the Finals last year, I would have bet on the Warriors winning 17 straight games against the Celtics. Granted, citing last year's Celtics team collapse doesn't exactly inspire confidence– but: Butler is 33, Love 34, Lowry 37, Vincent hurt his ankle, Oladipo and Herro are out. It's not like Miami has a lot more cards to play.
Good point. But they haven't been that stressed during these playoffs, and also, Herro might be back. Last night they said he was cleared (if I'm not mistaken), so it wouldn't shock me if he shows up either in game 5 or (most likely) game 6 and gives them some actually valuable minutes.
 

slamminsammya

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Good point. But they haven't been that stressed during these playoffs, and also, Herro might be back. Last night they said he was cleared (if I'm not mistaken), so it wouldn't shock me if he shows up either in game 5 or (most likely) game 6 and gives them some actually valuable minutes.
I think he'd be a detriment at this point the way they've been playing. Unless Vincent is hurt in which case they'll need guard minutes from anyone competent.
 

Mooch

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I don't think Herro would be back for this series. He hasn't even been cleared for contact yet. He's just now starting to shoot the basketball again.
 

fairlee76

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Why not now? Fuck it. Thinking I’m already steeled and won’t care if they lose tomorrow is bullshit anyway.
This is where I am as well. Just excited for more Celtics basketball and watching this way too frequently:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dllnyWduwbY


I want to feel after game 5 tomorrow night how I felt leaving Fenway after game 5 in 2004. Not quite confident, but definitely hopeful and buoyed by the fight shown by the Red Sox.
 

Ale Xander

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Need to win Game 5 but also have to start and continue strong in game 6 if there is one. Personally I will start to feel excited if they have a lead midway in 3rd quarter in Game 6
 

Senator Donut

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The team that loses those first 3 has only won game 4 3 times (not sure if that includes yesterday).
It has only happened twice before yesterday because one example was the 2020 bubble playoffs when the Heat (were you expecting someone else?) surprisingly went up 3-0 on the Milwaukee Bucks as the lower seed.
 

teddykgb

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I wouldn’t truly believe there’s a chance until a theoretical game 7 starts. This team is Lucy with the football and too many of you are falling for it. Miami cleans up the turnovers and prob manly takes their kill shot tomorrow night.
 

lovegtm

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I wouldn’t truly believe there’s a chance until a theoretical game 7 starts. This team is Lucy with the football and too many of you are falling for it. Miami cleans up the turnovers and prob manly takes their kill shot tomorrow night.
We're enjoying basketball, which is an enjoyable thing to do.

I wake up every game day in the morning looking forward to watching the previous night's Celtics game. I'm thrilled that I get to do it one more time, and maybe a couple times after that if I'm lucky.

If not, I'll enjoy watching Jokic do wild shit in the Finals.

Life is too short to worry about "falling for" stuff.
 

oumbi

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5 minutes left in game 7, up 20+. Until then I'm from Missouri.
This is about where I am. The Celtics losing the first two games in Boston created a lot of disappointment and bitterness, and all this on the heels of the Bruins demise. The Celtics have to win to get me back on board.
 

Van Everyman

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The real answer to me on this question is:

I will get excited when it seems like the Celtics and Joe have "solved" what the Heat and Spo threw at them in games 1-3.

We've highlighted a few things they did last night that suggest they might have: the defense that pressures Jimmy and cuts over screens, the zone break with Tatum at the foul line on offense. In general, as Joe said, they just seemed a lot more "connected" defensively. And it seems like their offense really depends on that defensive pressure to get out in transition and play with pace.

If they can do that for more or less a full 48 minutes in Game 6, I will begin to more seriously dream of a comeback. Until then, I am going to be interested and intrigued but only mildly hopeful.
 

Tito's Pullover

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I'm excited right now. I was excited the moment the clock hit zeros on game 3.

That was a miserable game. You know what else was a miserable game? 19-8. The fourth quarter of game 3 was Wakefield pitching four innings to rest the bullpen. I felt numb watching each of those game threes. But I felt loose going into each of those game fours. The "no team has ever..." talk fuels the excitement. Yeah, no team has ever... until one team does. The NBA will be around another 75 years. Eventually some team will come back from 3-0. "Why not us?"

I do not expect a series win. I'd be quite surprised if they actually pull it off. But excited? I'm far more excited right now with the series L-L-L-W, than if the W happened somewhere in the first three games. Because if it DOES happen, it's something unique and special. We have a longshot lottery ticket in our hands to witness history. In hindsight, would you have had 2004 play out any other way?
 

bsan34

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Someone on here referred to winning game 4 as getting through the “great filter of 3-0s”. (Sorry I can’t remember who!) I think that’s actually getting through game 5. At that point they’ve survived past where 90+% of teams in that situation get and have gotten to a situation - down 3-2 - that they’ve already pulled off twice in the last two years.

So to answer the question, after a game 5 win.
 

Spelunker

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I skipped last night's game to have drinks with my estranged ex and figure out how we can be friends going forward.

Until there's a game 7 I'm going to go on a 12 steps style atonement tour, just in case.
 

tims4wins

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I got excited after the SECOND Damon HR

Fake edit: dammit beaten
There's a difference between getting excited and allowing yourself to believe IMO.

I'm not sure I allowed myself to believe until Pokey had thrown it to 1st.

I think I started getting excited when the Sox tied it up in game 5.

Edit: so on that note, I'm borderline excited now. I probably won't believe until sometime with a lead in game 7. That could mean a 20+ point lead in the first half, or a 7 point lead with a minute to play. Basketball is different.
 

slamminsammya

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I can't believe people weren't excitement games 4 and 5 in 2004. I was losing my mind every single game. Maybe because I was a teenager but still.
 

TripleOT

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If this series played out differently, where Boston won Game one convincingly, then lost a heartbreaker in Game two, and Miami held serve at home by winning two close games, many Celtic fans would be thinking that Boston winning Game 5 at home, then going down to Miami to survive a close out game wouldn’t be that big of a deal, since this team has a solid record of surviving close out games on the road.

Their in the same spot now, with the added benefit of their opponent looking at being the biggest chokers in NBA history if and when Boston extended this series.

For Game 5, we need the home Game 7 effort we had against the Sixers this year, and the Bucks last year. Send the Undrafted back to Miami under a cloud of doubt.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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If this series played out differently, where Boston won Game one convincingly, then lost a heartbreaker in Game two, and Miami held serve at home by winning two close games, many Celtic fans would be thinking that Boston winning Game 5 at home, then going down to Miami to survive a close out game wouldn’t be that big of a deal, since this team has a solid record of surviving close out games on the road.

Their in the same spot now, with the added benefit of their opponent looking at being the biggest chokers in NBA history if and when Boston extended this series.

For Game 5, we need the home Game 7 effort we had against the Sixers this year, and the Bucks last year. Send the Undrafted back to Miami under a cloud of doubt.
Yeah, obviously any win works but where I personally will really start getting into the “it’s happening” mindset is if they run Miami off the floor tomorrow with a best game of the season type effort to prove G4 wasn’t just them saving face after an embarrassing couple of days.
 

Nick Kaufman

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538 has the Celtics with a 25% probability to win the series. Their win probability for both home games are 70% while game 6 one team is favoured by 1% (can't remember which). If you multiply, 0.5x0.7x07 this is how you get 25%

So, if the Celtics win tomorrow, their win probability rises to 35%. But if the win game 6 as well, they become 70% favorites.

Unfortunately, it's zero margin for error. We can win the next 3 games by a combined 40-50 points. The Heat just need to win one game by 1.

Either way. the stat quoted about teams that are down 3-0 being 0 and 147 or whatever is misleading. Given that they were better, the Cs still had a 10% chance of coming back before game 4.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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I think you're all full of crap. This whole thread is a big mindfuck groupthink where you're trying valiantly to convince yourselves that you don't care. Every one of you is excited. Every one of you cares. You wouldn't be posting here if you didn't.

It's all just people trying to protect themselves from disappointment, as though that's even fucking possible. Yeah, if they lose, we'll all pretend we didn't care and already had assumed it and we're pissed and fire Joe, and aren't we above it all, but it's just bullshit. Aren't we so fucking protected and tough.

Shut up. If it's fucking 106 to 106 and Marcus shoots one at the buzzer every fucking one of you is going to be out of your seat tense as a fucking coil, ready to explode if it goes in and devastated if it doesn't. Tell yourself whatever you want. You're all full of shit.

They haven't earned my trust yet. Or they are too inconsistent. Or whatever the heck you're telling yourself.

Bullshit. You believe it, no doubt. You've got yourself as protected as you can be from emotional pain. Congratulations I guess. It's all bullshit. People fucking pretending they weren't excited until Belhorn's home run in game 7 or whatever? Come the fuck on. I remember when Papi was fouling off ball after ball or when Tony Clark was up there facing meatballs and I was freaked the fuck out. Yeah, we're all guarded. But we're all also full of shit.

But every fucking one of you is excited. And if you're not why the fuck do you even do this thing we do every fucking year? Your team is in the conference finals. It's one of three teams left that can with the championship. Are they probably going to lose one of these games? Yeah. It's a tough opponent to beat 3 times in a row. But shut the fuck and get excited. Assholes. Fuck.
 

djbayko

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For those of you who believe in NBA / ref game fixing conspiracies, the league has to love the idea of the Boston Celtics being the team to finally beat the 0-3 winless streak, right? Give us Scott Foster each game, let him hand pick the other refs, and I'll place his bets for him under my name.
 

Homar

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Before game 4 in 2004, I emailed a friend, "It seems that there is a game scheduled for the Red Sox today, might as well go ahead and try to win it." Of course, I sent the same email each day for the next eight games.

It seems that there is a game scheduled for the Celtics tomorrow, might as well go ahead and try to win it.

I'm in until they're out.
 

radsoxfan

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Either way. the stat quoted about teams that are down 3-0 being 0 and 147 or whatever is misleading. Given that they were better, the Cs still had a 10% chance of coming back before game 4.
Yeah the 0 for 147 thing is not surprising, but also not too relevant. How often is the "better" (at least by all the numbers) and healthier team with home court advantage actually down 0-3? The vast majority of those 147 series were 3-0 with the clearly superior team ahead.

I'm not super optimistic honestly, though I guess I'm still "excited" right now. 25% chance via 538 seems reasonable, though maybe a little high. Hard to see the Celtics as better than 50/50 bets in the home games given how they have played at home, but we shall see.

Need to win Game 5 but also have to start and continue strong in game 6 if there is one. Personally I will start to feel excited if they have a lead midway in 3rd quarter in Game 6
I enjoyed this highly specific reply.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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I think you're all full of crap. This whole thread is a big mindfuck groupthink where you're trying valiantly to convince yourselves that you don't care. Every one of you is excited. Every one of you cares. You wouldn't be posting here if you didn't.

It's all just people trying to protect themselves from disappointment, as though that's even fucking possible. Yeah, if they lose, we'll all pretend we didn't care and already had assumed it and we're pissed and fire Joe, and aren't we above it all, but it's just bullshit. Aren't we so fucking protected and tough.

Shut up. If it's fucking 106 to 106 and Marcus shoots one at the buzzer every fucking one of you is going to be out of your seat tense as a fucking coil, ready to explode if it goes in and devastated if it doesn't. Tell yourself whatever you want. You're all full of shit.

They haven't earned my trust yet. Or they are too inconsistent. Or whatever the heck you're telling yourself.

Bullshit. You believe it, no doubt. You've got yourself as protected as you can be from emotional pain. Congratulations I guess. It's all bullshit. People fucking pretending they weren't excited until Belhorn's home run in game 7 or whatever? Come the fuck on. I remember when Papi was fouling off ball after ball or when Tony Clark was up there facing meatballs and I was freaked the fuck out. Yeah, we're all guarded. But we're all also full of shit.

But every fucking one of you is excited. And if you're not why the fuck do you even do this thing we do every fucking year? Your team is in the conference finals. It's one of three teams left that can with the championship. Are they probably going to lose one of these games? Yeah. It's a tough opponent to beat 3 times in a row. But shut the fuck and get excited. Assholes. Fuck.
Nailed it. I’m already absolutely fucking pumped and jacked for tomorrow and somewhat lamenting my 7 am tee time Friday knowing there’s no way I’ll be asleep before 11:30 win or lose.
 

tims4wins

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I think you're all full of crap. This whole thread is a big mindfuck groupthink where you're trying valiantly to convince yourselves that you don't care. Every one of you is excited. Every one of you cares. You wouldn't be posting here if you didn't.

It's all just people trying to protect themselves from disappointment, as though that's even fucking possible. Yeah, if they lose, we'll all pretend we didn't care and already had assumed it and we're pissed and fire Joe, and aren't we above it all, but it's just bullshit. Aren't we so fucking protected and tough.

Shut up. If it's fucking 106 to 106 and Marcus shoots one at the buzzer every fucking one of you is going to be out of your seat tense as a fucking coil, ready to explode if it goes in and devastated if it doesn't. Tell yourself whatever you want. You're all full of shit.

They haven't earned my trust yet. Or they are too inconsistent. Or whatever the heck you're telling yourself.

Bullshit. You believe it, no doubt. You've got yourself as protected as you can be from emotional pain. Congratulations I guess. It's all bullshit. People fucking pretending they weren't excited until Belhorn's home run in game 7 or whatever? Come the fuck on. I remember when Papi was fouling off ball after ball or when Tony Clark was up there facing meatballs and I was freaked the fuck out. Yeah, we're all guarded. But we're all also full of shit.

But every fucking one of you is excited. And if you're not why the fuck do you even do this thing we do every fucking year? Your team is in the conference finals. It's one of three teams left that can with the championship. Are they probably going to lose one of these games? Yeah. It's a tough opponent to beat 3 times in a row. But shut the fuck and get excited. Assholes. Fuck.
I wrote this either in this thread or another but IMO there is a difference between getting excited, and allowing yourself to believe. The win last night got me excited. I'll allow myself to believe sometime either late Thursday or late Saturday. I don't think anyone here is trying to fake or fool themselves.
 

Cabin Mirror

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This is where I am as well. Just excited for more Celtics basketball and watching this way too frequently:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dllnyWduwbY


I want to feel after game 5 tomorrow night how I felt leaving Fenway after game 5 in 2004. Not quite confident, but definitely hopeful and buoyed by the fight shown by the Red Sox.
Thanks for that video, gave me the chills a few times.


I was 34 and it was my lifetime pinnacle of sports. Nothing will ever touch it.
I was 31 at the time, but yep.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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Nailed it. I’m already absolutely fucking pumped and jacked for tomorrow and somewhat lamenting my 7 am tee time Friday knowing there’s no way I’ll be asleep before 11:30 win or lose.
Absolutely, I love the Celts, I want more, so why not be excited.
I'll worry about the next game Friday morning, when, fortunately, my tee time isn't until 9:38 Central time.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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I wrote this either in this thread or another but IMO there is a difference between getting excited, and allowing yourself to believe. The win last night got me excited. I'll allow myself to believe sometime either late Thursday or late Saturday. I don't think anyone here is trying to fake or fool themselves.
Bah, I hear you. But fuck it. Let's just believe. I mean, what does it cost us, right? I know you can't make yourself believe. But to the extent we have a choice, there's no downside.

I mean, what am I afraid of? We allow ourselves to believe and they get cheesedicked. So what? Fuck it. They tricked me? I got fooled? I'm gullible? There’s a magic man in the sky keeping score and I believed when I shouldn’t have. I feel foolish?

I don't care. So I got to say I didn’t even believe anyway! Blech. Gets me nothing.

If I believe and they fuck me, it doesn't make me an idiot. It just makes me a fan. I know -- I believed when the series started and look where there got me. I do feel like an idiot. But, fuck it. Kill yourself inside and you know what? You’ve shut off the risk and the pain. But you’re fucking dead inside.

I believe. Or at least I choose to believe to the extent I have a choice. And I'm excited. And if they lose, I'll just do it again next year.
 

staz

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I have like 2 career posts here in the Port Cellar, and it's been a long time since I really dug into the NBA, but my initial impression of ECF game 1 was that the Heat match up well against the Celtics, but are not nearly as talented or deep as Philly. So more than anything, color me flummoxed and disappointed the Celtics dropped 3 straight. They're better than that.

Hold serve, play your best game of the season Saturday night and see what happens.
 

lars10

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I think the main question for at least tomorrow is.. how hurt is Vincent. If either Lowry or Duncan Robinson has to play more.. or even Herro having to step in after not playing for weeks? The heat have been in sync for the playoffs with the lineup they've had.. just all of them knowing where each other are going to be. If Vincent is hurt that's one less shooter on the floor who has also played pretty reliable defense.

I'm not excited yet.. mostly just nervous because I don't want the C's season to be over and they've been so weird at home. If it gets to 3-2 it just feels like a place that Tatum and Brown have both been in and been really successful together.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I was excited as soon as they showed, maybe second quarter of game 4, they weren't going to just roll over and die.

I am here for the fight in them.

What I said walking out of games 4 and 5 in 2004 over and over again was "we're still here...we're still here"

So again I say, "we're still here"
 

jezza1918

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I was excited as soon as they showed, maybe second quarter of game 4, they weren't going to just roll over and die.

I am here for the fight in them.

What I said walking out of games 4 and 5 in 2004 over and over again was "we're still here...we're still here"

So again I say, "we're still here"
Now I’m in.
Thanks to your post I’ll be watching the “running up that hill” scene from last seasons stranger things on repeat all day and getting fired the f*ck up #IYKYK
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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I was 34 and it was my lifetime pinnacle of sports. Nothing will ever touch it.
Same. Except I was 29 in 2004. The 2003 and 2004 postseasons likely took 10 years off my lifespan, but holy hell was that week in 2004 glorious. It felt like I never got more than 2-3 hours of sleep during the games 4-7. Work was a blur - I don’t think I accomplished anything that week.

As far as this goes - if they win tonight, I’m all in again. They’re the better team, and honestly even though it has yet to happen, it wouldn’t shock me completely if they did rattle off 4 in a row.
 

Batman Likes The Sox

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What a mistake starting a zone 2 workout right before tonight’s game. I am so excited I can’t keep my heart rate out of 3 and occasionally 4 unless I completely stop moving.

Let’s win this.