When to get excited?

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Watched the game last night and am obviously glad they won. They were down early, had an opportunity to fold, but fought back. Still, this team is so inconsistent, the chance the win 4 in a row against a smart/tough Heat squad is slim (slim as in, we know how many teams have come back from 0-3 down). Even last night, there were too many signs of inconsistencies to give confidence over a four game stretch.

All that said, IF the Celtics were to win this series, at what point do you allow yourself to be sucked back in? Game 7? Already back on board? Not until they get to the finals?

I meditated on it while on the toilet this morning and came up with a pretty specific time. If, at halftime of game 6 they're within double digits of the Heat...I'm back and I'm excited.

Until then, this is just their last rites. What about you?
 

Jimy Hendrix

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After game two, I said somewhere that the series will either be Heat in 5 or Celtics in 7.

So if I stand in my truth, then I am officially excited if the series is still going after Thursday.
 

ManicCompression

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I remember when the Sox won in 04, Bob Ryan was on PTI describing the Red Sox mood in the clubhouse after winning game four. He said, "There's a real belief on this team that if they can just get to Curt Schilling in game 6, they have a real shot to win this thing."

The Celtics don't have a Curt Schilling, and home court hasn't really meant much these past few playoffs, but I'll get excited if they win tomorrow at home because the Heat will really be on their heels heading back to Miami.
 

IdiotKicker

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As it stands right now, I'm at least interested in watching Game 5. I only watched the second half last night because I didn't want to be sucked in for a whole game and they needed to show they were competitive.

If they win Game 5, then I am fully back in as far as believing they have a chance to actually win. Because at 3-2, Miami could get awfully tight for game 6, and then you've got just one game to go for the whole series.

So I'm still skeptical right now but at least willing to watch, and if they win tomorrow, then let's do this thing.
 

Nator

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Watched the game last night and am obviously glad they won. They were down early, had an opportunity to fold, but fought back. Still, this team is so inconsistent, the chance the win 4 in a row against a smart/tough Heat squad is slim. Even last night, there were too many signs of inconsistencies to give confidence over a four game stretch.

All that said, IF the Celtics were to win this series, at what point do you allow yourself to be sucked back in? Game 7? Already back on board? Not until they get to the finals?

I meditated on it while on the toilet this morning and came up with a pretty specific time. If, at halftime of game 6 they're within double digits of the Heat...I'm back and I'm excited.

Until then, this is just their last rites. What about you?
If they get to game 6 I'll start convincing myself they can do it. But I won't feel like they have a realistic shot until they somehow force game 7, which will be bonkers.
 

Auger34

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Watched the game last night and am obviously glad they won. They were down early, had an opportunity to fold, but fought back. Still, this team is so inconsistent, the chance the win 4 in a row against a smart/tough Heat squad is slim (slim as in, we know how many teams have come back from 0-3 down). Even last night, there were too many signs of inconsistencies to give confidence over a four game stretch.

All that said, IF the Celtics were to win this series, at what point do you allow yourself to be sucked back in? Game 7? Already back on board? Not until they get to the finals?

I meditated on it while on the toilet this morning and came up with a pretty specific time. If, at halftime of game 6 they're within double digits of the Heat...I'm back and I'm excited.

Until then, this is just their last rites. What about you?
If they have a lead going into halftime tomorrow and they look locked in then I am officially back in
 

BigSoxFan

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You get excited if they win tomorrow night. For now, I'm just happy there's another game but it's still an incredibly disappointing series if they lose tomorrow night and go 0-3 at home against this team. A strong performance tomorrow night and all of a sudden it's game on. Odds are still stacked heavily against them but this is not a team you want to give a second chance at life to. They remain the best team in the league when they want to be.
 

Mooch

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As it stands right now, I'm at least interested in watching Game 5. I only watched the second half last night because I didn't want to be sucked in for a whole game and they needed to show they were competitive.

If they win Game 5, then I am fully back in as far as believing they have a chance to actually win. Because at 3-2, Miami could get awfully tight for game 6, and then you've got just one game to go for the whole series.

So I'm still skeptical right now but at least willing to watch, and if they win tomorrow, then let's do this thing.
This is where I'm at with one addition: I'm VERY curious to see how Butler and Lowry look in the second half tomorrow night. Not a lot of rest for two older players with a ton of mileage on them. If they look gassed down the stretch, the Heat are going to have real problems in Game 6 as well and then as we know, Game 7 is a crapshoot. I got the sense last night that fatigue is just starting to creep in with those two guys. Oh, and Vincent's ankle. If he's less than 100% the rest of the series, Miami might be ripe for the taking.
 

HurstSoGood

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Before the ECF began, no one would have been surprised if the Celts won the series in 7. I'd bet they still didn't mean "win in 7 games after being down 3 games to 0."

If the Celts can win at "Middle School Basketball Camp*," they can still win this series.
*Defend. Help. Hustle. Communicate. Box out & rebound. Move the ball on offense, then move without the ball. Be mentally strong. Don't implode. Make your bunnies. Compete every minute until the clock shows 0:00.

If I see them doing this, I am still in.
 

Senator Donut

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I bought game 5 tickets before the series started, so I'm forced to go into Thursday with at least an open mind.
 

jezza1918

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You get excited if they win tomorrow night. For now, I'm just happy there's another game but it's still an incredibly disappointing series if they lose tomorrow night and go 0-3 at home against this team. A strong performance tomorrow night and all of a sudden it's game on. Odds are still stacked heavily against them but this is not a team you want to give a second chance at life to. They remain the best team in the league when they want to be.
Spot on with where I'm at. In a perfect world my Memorial Day consists of slightly hungover Roland Garros viewing > late afternoon/early evening BBQ gathering > Game 7 (likely under a blanket in a state of panic, but still).
 

tims4wins

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I'm in the "win game 5" camp. Seeing a 10 point halftime lead on Thursday won't quite do it for me; we've seen them blow those too many times. Get the job done Thursday and I will be fully on board.
 

Green (Tongued) Monster

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Watched the game last night and am obviously glad they won. They were down early, had an opportunity to fold, but fought back. Still, this team is so inconsistent, the chance the win 4 in a row against a smart/tough Heat squad is slim (slim as in, we know how many teams have come back from 0-3 down). Even last night, there were too many signs of inconsistencies to give confidence over a four game stretch.

All that said, IF the Celtics were to win this series, at what point do you allow yourself to be sucked back in? Game 7? Already back on board? Not until they get to the finals?

I meditated on it while on the toilet this morning and came up with a pretty specific time. If, at halftime of game 6 they're within double digits of the Heat...I'm back and I'm excited.

Until then, this is just their last rites. What about you?
Just like in your avatar?

I am back in - shame on me because I have been fooled multiple times with this team. The same parallels aren't there with the '04 Sox, but these Celtics are winning this series.
 

The Social Chair

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A 4th quarter lead in game 6. The Celtics play at home this playoffs, and general inconsistency, doesn't give me a lot of confidence going into game 5.
 

Toe Nash

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It's not impossible for them to just go off if they can stay locked in defensively and take care of the ball. We saw that for about 3 months straight in 2022 with most of the same players. So, I am on board, but they need to be focused and not get flustered.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Why not now? Fuck it. Thinking I’m already steeled and won’t care if they lose tomorrow is bullshit anyway.
 

Koufax

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After a win in game 5 for reasons stated above.
 

tims4wins

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I'm not sure I will articulate this well but I will try.

The fact that they won game 4 tells me that they care, they still believe in each other, and they still believe they can win this series. I think all three of those concepts were up in the air as of 13 hours ago.

Confidence and momentum are funny things. I don't think any of us would have been surprised if the Celts got smoked last night. They got down 29-20 and responded. They got down 61-52 and responded again.

It is true that they have no margin for error at this point. And they've proven time and again these last two playoff runs that they need some margin for error, because they inevitably find a way to blow a game. I doubt that has changed at this point.

But to my eyes, the talent gap is that substantial vs. Miami that maybe it doesn't matter. I don't see any reason why they can't take double digit leads into the final six minutes of every game going forward, and basically prevent themselves from choking away a win.

As has been noted by others in this thread and others, this isn't your run-of-the-mill 3-0 series. There are similarities to losing the first 2 games in 2004 in close fashion. We all knew those two teams were on fairly equal footing. I think the gap is significantly wider in this case. One team is clearly better than the other. And while home court has not been favorable for these Celtics, it doesn't mean it can't and won't be.

I wouldn't bet on the Celts coming back and taking this series. All it would take for the Heat to advance is one more great shooting night, or one Jimmy supernova game. We've seen both things happen too many times to discount the possibility. But I do think the chances are higher than what the Sox chances were down 3-1 in 2004. For whatever that is worth.
 

lovegtm

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I'm going to treat it the same way as a fan that they should as players: one game at a time.

I'm going to enjoy the hell out of game 5 because it might be the last one until October, and I'm going to enjoy it a lot more if they play their asses off and take it back to Miami.
 

TripleOT

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I was excited before the Game 4 win. My philosophy now is that the Heat were the better team the first 3 1/2 games of the ECF, and the Celtics will be for the last half. They will build off the Gsme 4 success and win Game 5. We already know the Cs can go into Miami and not get eliminated. They have done it the last two playoffs, and they can do it again in Game 6, if they take care of business tomorrow night at home
 

chilidawg

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I'm going to treat it the same way as a fan that they should as players: one game at a time.

I'm going to enjoy the hell out of game 5 because it might be the last one until October, and I'm going to enjoy it a lot more if they play their asses off and take it back to Miami.
Yeah, I'm excited for game 5, win and I'll be excited for 6.
 

Jim Ed Rice in HOF

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2004 was my first year with Sox season tickets and I left ALCS game 3 in the 7th inning or thereabouts in disgust. The way the Sox won game 4 and game 5 had me convinced they were going to win and leaving Fenway after game 5 I said to the usher in our section "see you Saturday" not as wishful thinking or caught up in the moment but really felt it was going to happen.

I don't have quite the same vibe from this Celtics team yet so I personally won't get too excited until probably the same timeline as the OP - halftime game 6 if they're leading or within striking distance.
 

Euclis20

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Game 3 of the 2004 ALCS broke something in me. I kept watching, but was completely detached. I watched game 4 with a friend (Cubs fan), and distinctly remember when Roberts was taking his lead off 1st, he looked at me and couldn't believe how calm I was. I watched games 4-6 and the beginning of game 7 with that exact same mindset, not getting high or low at any point. What finally snapped me out of it and got me reinvested was Damon's grand slam, giving the Red Sox a 6-0 lead in the 2nd inning of game 7.

So, whatever the equivalent of that is. Probably when Boston goes up 25 with 1 minute left in the 1st quarter of game 7, and the crowd is so loud we can't hear the announcers or referees.
 
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Youkilis vs Wild

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It is incumbent on anybody who has tickets to Game 5 to get excited now.

As for the rest of us? It's a matter of self-preservation. But having felt pretty down on the team since Game 2, and already pretty resigned to the likelihood of elimination, I'm finding myself pleased to at least have one last opportunity to get excited this basketball season and am seizing it now. Looking forward to tomorrow night. Not much to lose at this point, and a lot of joy to be gained.
 

Bergs

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Game 3 of the 2004 ALCS broke something in me. I kept watching, but was completely detached. I watched game 4 with a friend (Cubs fan), and distinctly remember when Roberts was taking his lead off 1st, he looked at me and couldn't believe how calm I was. I watched games 4-6 and the beginning of game 7 with that exact same mindset, not getting high or low at any point. What finally snapped me out of it and got me reinvested was Damon's grand slam, giving the Red Sox a 6-0 lead in the 2nd inning of game 7.

So, whatever the equivalent of that is. Probably when Boston goes up 25 with 1 minute left in the 1st quarter of game 7, and the crowd is so loud we can't hear the announcers or referees.
Man. I feel bad for you. That was one of the most electric weeks of my life.
 

Preacher

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I was excited when my wife said she could get us tickets for tomorrow through school for $189. But then clicked on the link and saw they sold out 30 minutes ago. Still, optimistic.
 

BaseballJones

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Man. I feel bad for you. That was one of the most electric weeks of my life.
So much so that I wrote a book about it. :)

After game 4, I was super hyped. Still waited for the Yankees to do what they always did - crush the Sox like a cigarette under their boot - in the end, but still...it was absolutely an electric week.
 

moretsyndrome

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I can't help but draw parallels along the way. Game 3 felt like the equivalent of 19-8. That run they went on in the 3rd last night was Roberts stealing 2nd. If they win in OT (or by any means) tomorrow, it starts to get eerie, and exciting.

It's still a Press Your Luck board filled with 17 Whammies and 1 $1M square. We'll see.
 

DJnVa

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Celtics are currently +220 to win the East which, being down 3-1, seems nuts. Yesterday it was +700.
 

tims4wins

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Celtics are currently +220 to win the East which, being down 3-1, seems nuts. Yesterday it was +700.
538 has them at 25% to win the series, which basically boils down to having them at 70% to win the 2 home games and 50% to win the road game
 

Deathofthebambino

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I'm never not excited for Celtics basketball.

Disappointed, dejected, aggravated, pissed, usually drunk, all of those for sure.


But never not excited. It's sports and it's the playoffs. Until they take the ball out of your hands and send you home, you've got a chance. I'm all in, but mostly because I'm not really capable of being out.
 

Justthetippett

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I'm excited now. Feels like it sneakily might be the end of something since they'll need to decide on Jaylen this summer. I say sneakily because it will feel sudden even if it isn't really. I really want the Jays to get there. So I'll watch like I've never been hurt.
 

DGreenwood

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I'm in a weird bargaining stage where my mentality is just hoping we can have a game 7. I promise I won't be upset regardless of what happens in game 7, it would just be awesome to have a game 7.

Of course, like most bargaining, that's complete BS.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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Here’s where I’m at, they Celts are better than the Heat. If you told me eight days ago that Boston would be down 3-0, I’d have said you were crazy. How could Miami win THREE in a row over Boston?

But it happened.

In the same respect, is it impossible for the Celtics to win three in a row over Miami? No. Of course not, they were evenly matched all year and Miami isn’t that good—they lost to Hawks and almost lost to Bulls in the playin games. If the slipper falls off and the Celts right their ship we’re back home in a Game 7 situation where anything can happen.

It’s practically a coin flip.

It’s cliche but the Celtics have to take it not only game-by-game but quarter-by-quarter. If they can win the majority of the quarters, they should be okay.
 

m0ckduck

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Lots of scrubby teams fall behind 3-0 and then take G4 while the other team relents, loses focus, takes a night off. Until they get a second win, there's really nothing to feel all that good about here.

But: getting it to 3-2 would officially make it a competitive series AND get it to a deficit we've already seen the Celtics overcome three times in the last two postseasons. So, yeah: win tomorrow and I'm officially back on the edge of my seat again.
 

88 MVP

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I followed the first half of the game last night on my phone and turned it on in the 3rd quarter. I am fully back in for Game 5 and for as long as the Celts can stay alive.

This probably veers into Bill Simmons territory, assigning credit to the home crowd to construct a narrative, but I really believe that the vibe in the Garden needs to be positive energy and passion for the team, and not stress, anxiety and doom. You can feel the entire building getting tight sometimes when an opponent is on a run.

When I think about Boston crowds providing a home crowd boost, I think about the Fenway crowd singing Bob Marley during the 2013 run, or the Gillette crowd singing The Outfield while the Pats were trying to complete their comeback over Baltimore. I hope the home crowd on Thursday brings that type of energy.
 

m0ckduck

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The other thing is: sometimes teams can just run out of gas. By the end of the Finals last year, I would have bet on the Warriors winning 17 straight games against the Celtics. Granted, citing last year's Celtics team collapse doesn't exactly inspire confidence– but: Butler is 33, Love 34, Lowry 37, Vincent hurt his ankle, Oladipo and Herro are out. It's not like Miami has a lot more cards to play.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Lots of scrubby teams fall behind 3-0 and then take G4 while the other team relents, loses focus, takes a night off. Until they get a second win, there's really nothing to feel all that good about here.

But getting the series to 3-2 officially makes it a competitive series AND gets it to a deficit we've already seen the Celtics overcome three times in the last two postseasons. So, yeah: win tomorrow and I'm officially back on the edge of my seat again.
To be fair, most scrubby teams aren't playing game 5 on their home floor.

That's why this one has a bit of a different feel. Right now, you take care of business at home, and then steal the game 6 in Miami, which should feel like do or die for them and well....

Except for the NBA Finals from 1985-2013 (which was 2-3-2), all playoff series since 1984 have had the 2-2-1-1-1 format.

If folks want to get excited, and I'm reading this chart correctly:

A team that has lost the 1st 2 at home, then the 3rd on the road is 0-13 in their series. It does not happen often.

The team that loses those first 3 has only won game 4 3 times (not sure if that includes yesterday).

There is only one series in which a team has won the 1st 2 on the road, game 3 at home and lost game 4 at home and had to play a game 6.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/7-game-playoff-series-outcomes-22111.html


This is already pretty uncharted territory, and if the C's win game 5, we're really in a position that's only been seen, I think once, in NBA history.
 

bigq

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I'm in the "win game 5" camp. Seeing a 10 point halftime lead on Thursday won't quite do it for me; we've seen them blow those too many times. Get the job done Thursday and I will be fully on board.
And of course the halftime score is not particularly meaningful. If the Celtics are up or down by 10 at halftime it has little bearing on the final score. Hope to see you back on board soon!
 

m0ckduck

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To be fair, most scrubby teams aren't playing game 5 on their home floor.

That's why this one has a bit of a different feel. Right now, you take care of business at home, and then steal the game 6 in Miami, which should feel like do or die for them and well....

Except for the NBA Finals from 1985-2013 (which was 2-3-2), all playoff series since 1984 have had the 2-2-1-1-1 format.

If folks want to get excited, and I'm reading this chart correctly:

A team that has lost the 1st 2 at home, then the 3rd on the road is 0-13 in their series. It does not happen often.

The team that loses those first 3 has only won game 4 3 times (not sure if that includes yesterday).

There is only one series in which a team has won the 1st 2 on the road, game 3 at home and lost game 4 at home and had to play a game 6.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/7-game-playoff-series-outcomes-22111.html


This is already pretty uncharted territory, and if the C's win game 5, we're really in a position that's only been seen, I think once, in NBA history.
Off the top of my head, the Sonics fell behind 0-3 in the 96 Finals against the Bulls, then got the series to 3-2 before losing. The Bulls had HCA, so it doesn't directly compare to this situation, but it's the one instance I can think of right away.
 

Curt S Loew

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Before the series, what would be more shocking?

Miami Beats The Celtics in 4 straight?

The Celtics beat Miami in 4 straight?

Like The Celtics, I'm still in this until I'm not.