jsinger121 said:
Revis on Kearse, Arrington on Baldwin. McCourty playing centerfield. I'd use Browner to lay the wood on TE's and WR's.
Yes on #2. Definitely use 8 in the box.
Yes on #3.
Either Chandler Jones, Nink or Ayers should be the spy on Russell Wilson.
I think they'll put Revis on Baldwin. He led the Seahawks in both targets and receptions. Take away their #1 WR.
Luke Wilson is an interesting guy for the Pats, considering that they have struggled as a defense against TE's all season long, and Wilson averaged 16.5 ypr. He only caught 22 balls, but he can make big plays. Do you put Browner on him and Arrington on Kearse? If you put Browner on Kearse, what do you do about Wilson? I know he only caught 22 passes, but he's the type of guy who has killed this Pats team.
Losing Paul Richardson is a big loss for Seattle. Everyone is focusing on the injuries to Sherman and Thomas, and rightfully so, but Richardson had carved out a nice role in the last few weeks for a team that doesn't have a lot of weapons in the passing game. He was targeted 19 times during weeks 15-17. The only Seahawk targeted more during that stretch was Baldwin, with 21 targets. Kearse was targeted a mere 7 times during that three week stretch.
(As an aside, it feels like the worm has turned here a little bit in terms of injury luck for the Pats. I can't be the only one who was having bad flashbacks during the AFC Championship Game when Revis and Edelman went out with injuries. But this is a team that is relatively healthy heading into the Super Bowl. Definitely cannot say the same for Seattle and that honestly could end up being the difference between two evenly matched teams.)
Overall, it seems like a pretty good match-up on this side of the ball for the Pats. They generally excel against teams that have a no-brainer, sure fire, #1 go-to option on offense. And that guy is unquestionably Marshawn Lynch. The offenses that seem to give the Pats the most trouble are ones that don't have an obvious go-to guy for them to scheme against. Though Wilson can kill you with his legs just as easily, Lynch is definitely the straw that stirs the drink.
Winning the battle in the trenches and making sure-tackles on Lynch is priority #1. Keeping Wilson in the pocket and preventing him from making plays with his legs is next. Also can't give up the deep ball in the passing game, something Seattle seems to do well. Basically, make Wilson dink and dunk the team down the field. They do that and this Seattle offense will likely struggle to move the ball. We may pull our hair out at some 3rd-and-5 to 7ish third down conversions, but I think the Patriots will win those more often than not against this team.
Whoever mentioned broken plays being a big factor is spot on as well. Wilson excels are making chicken salad out of you-know-what. That said, he can hold the ball too long and takes a lot of sacks (though his offensive line doesn't always help him out a lot either). Only five QBs took more sacks during the regular season than Wilson, and he's been sacked 7 times in two playoff games. As much maligned as the Pats pass rush is here on SoSH, they got a ton of pressure on Luck (even though they didn't get any sacks). Sacks can be drive killers so getting to Wilson 2-3 times could be big. I saw a stat on twitter during the game Sunday that Wilson has fumbled the ball 13 times this season and not lost any of them. IIRC, QB fumbles are more likely to be recovered by the offense than fumbles by skill position players, but that's still insanely lucky. Would be nice for that fumble luck to run out next Sunday.