What's the big deal?

BigSoxFan

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Now that December 15th has come and gone, it's time to start evaluating the big man market, which figures to heat up in the coming months as teams start to give up on 2019-2020 season. This team is pretty much well-stocked everywhere else so the only move I really see Danny making is for an incremental big improvement. The current options on the roster are the following:

Theis
Time Lord
Kanter
Tacko
Poirier

Tacko and Poirier aren't going to be legitimate options come playoff time so we're down to Theis/TL/Kanter. Not a terrible trio but certainly an area that can use an upgrade, especially given TL's inability to stay health for even like 5 minutes. On the asset front, Ainge has a lot to work with, notably the Memphis pick that is top 6 protected in 2020 and unprotected in 2021. That pick isn't getting dealt unless a major name comes back. The team also has 2 late 1st's this year with their pick and Milwaukee's. Either could be fair game if the right option comes available. Could see guys like Arsen or Waters being added on to sweeten a deal, if necessary.

So, who might be available? I've raised the idea of Noel previously but now OKC is annoyingly the 7th seed and may not be sellers. Other options:

Willie Cauley-Stein (Warriors)
Derrick Favors (Pelicans)
- would be tough to match salary
Gorgui Dieng (Timberwolves) - another tough salary match
Jonas Valanciunas (Grizzlies)
Aron Baynes (Suns)
- I hear he has an admirer on this board
LaMarcus Aldridge (Spurs) - would be a major move that would require Hayward to go the other way, likely to 3rd team
Mitchell Robinson (Knicks) - probably not on market, especially in division, but it's the Knicks so you never know
Kevin Love (Cavs) - much discussed but not realistic option for Celtics
Andre Drummond (Pistons) - don't think Detroit entertains dealing him but leaving him here since the Drummond/Griffin pairing just isn't working. Would love to have Drummond doing all the dirty work down low for the J's and Kemba. Not going to lie - he's the guy I'm dreaming on. Would require dealing Hayward to a 3rd team for assets and tacking on the Memphis pick and others.

Others?
 

lovegtm

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Running through some of that:
  • Baynes can’t rejoin the Celtics until next season.
  • Would be down for Robinson if the cost was late 1st rounder(s) which seems too low. Mem pick is wayyyy too high.
  • Drummond is not good enough at basketball to give up Hayward/pay lots of money. I’m not sure he’s an upgrade over Kanter.
  • Aldridge would be maybe interesting if they can put together a 3-teamer and they think Hayward is walking. Have to think—it’s a talent downgrade from Hayward.
  • Love doesn’t solve any problems and has a bad contract.
The only name I didn’t see mentioned who intrigues me is Jakob Poeltl. He’s bigger than Theis more mobile than Kanter, and his salary matches with VP’s. If he could be had for something like our pick+the Nets 2nd rounder, I’d do it.
 

lovegtm

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There is a way to make that happen this season, but it's too convoluted to worry about.
Yeah, isn’t it that he has to pass through another team first? You’d also have to make sure the league office didn’t think shenanigans were afoot.
 

BigSoxFan

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Running through some of that:
  • Baynes can’t rejoin the Celtics until next season.
  • Would be down for Robinson if the cost was late 1st rounder(s) which seems too low. Mem pick is wayyyy too high.
  • Drummond is not good enough at basketball to give up Hayward/pay lots of money. I’m not sure he’s an upgrade over Kanter.
  • Aldridge would be maybe interesting if they can put together a 3-teamer and they think Hayward is walking. Have to think—it’s a talent downgrade from Hayward.
  • Love doesn’t solve any problems and has a bad contract.
The only name I didn’t see mentioned who intrigues me is Jakob Poeltl. He’s bigger than Theis more mobile than Kanter, and his salary matches with VP’s. If he could be had for something like our pick+the Nets 2nd rounder, I’d do it.
Thanks. Didn’t realize that Baynes was effectively off limits. Rats.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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I've always thought Valanciunas would be an excellent fit for this team if they could make it work. Big body, good rebounder, and can knock down the three.
 

benhogan

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Running through some of that:
  • Baynes can’t rejoin the Celtics until next season.
  • Would be down for Robinson if the cost was late 1st rounder(s) which seems too low. Mem pick is wayyyy too high.
  • Drummond is not good enough at basketball to give up Hayward/pay lots of money. I’m not sure he’s an upgrade over Kanter.
  • Aldridge would be maybe interesting if they can put together a 3-teamer and they think Hayward is walking. Have to think—it’s a talent downgrade from Hayward.
  • Love doesn’t solve any problems and has a bad contract.
The only name I didn’t see mentioned who intrigues me is Jakob Poeltl. He’s bigger than Theis more mobile than Kanter, and his salary matches with VP’s. If he could be had for something like our pick+the Nets 2nd rounder, I’d do it.
Good recap BigSoxFan

Agree with 100% of lovegtm's post. Not shocking since we have ruminated on "BIG depth/injury insurance" about 100x since THE TRADE. Poeltl is a nice Theis/Kanter hybrid who has a history of good health and playoff experience. Plus he is young enough to be part of the future if Danny can re-sign him at $5-7MM/per.

"priced right 5s"/persons of interest list :
1. Poeltl
2. Holmes
3. Looney
4. WCS
6. Damian Jones
7. Noel, not happening since OKC is legit

VP/2nd rounder is the C's trade currency

Mitchell Robinson would be very interesting. It seemed like he was in Coach Fizz doghouse early this season. I'd attach TL/late 1st + VP/2nd to land his defensive/rim running presence.

Finally, as the Celtics schedule gets much busier in Jan/Feb I'd give Tacko a legit 5-8mpg shot. With VP out and TL constantly injured, I'd like to see if he can add something during real minutes.
 
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wade boggs chicken dinner

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Anyone know if Alex Len can play at all? He's young, on a good contract, and hit 36% of 3P last season.

Saw a rumour that ATL was looking at Steven Adams for some reason; I guess looking at minutes, Len is going to be gone when his contract ends at the end of this year.
 

lovegtm

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Anyone know if Alex Len can play at all? He's young, on a good contract, and hit 36% of 3P last season.

Saw a rumour that ATL was looking at Steven Adams for some reason; I guess looking at minutes, Len is going to be gone when his contract ends at the end of this year.
I don’t know, I’d have to watch tape of him playing Embiid over the years. He fits the physical profile at least.
 

lovegtm

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Gotcha. As much as I love the game the salary stuff is one of life's greatest mysteries to me.
ESPN’s trade machine is a good resource here, but as a very, very, very rough guideline, whenever the number to be matched is above $10M you want to look at deals that match about 80% of it. So if Valanciunas makes (off the top of my head) 17M, you’re trying to find 13-14M in outgoing salary, which isn’t possible without trading the whole center rotation (not happening) or Marcus Smart (definitely not happening).
 

Big John

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Put me down for Richaun Holmes. Big tough kid who plays hard. He won't back down from Embiid or anyone else. Poirier, Javonte Green and Boston's 2020 first rounder might get it done.

I have no interest in guys like Len or Peoltl (too soft) or Larry Sanders (head case). I could be talked into Goga Bitadze, but there's no chance Indiana would trade him to a division rival unless Langford were coming back. Everyone else is too expensive, with the possible exception of Mo Bamba. Alas, Embiid would probably eat Bamba alive.
 

lovegtm

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Put me down for Richaun Holmes. Big tough kid who plays hard. He won't back down from Embiid or anyone else. Poirier, Javonte Green and Boston's 2020 first rounder might get it done.

I have no interest in guys like Len or Peoltl (too soft) or Larry Sanders (head case). I could be talked into Goga Bitadze, but there's no chance Indiana would trade him to a division rival unless Langford were coming back. Everyone else is too expensive, with the possible exception of Mo Bamba. Alas, Embiid would probably eat Bamba alive.
Is Holmes big enough to play Embiid? I don’t see him really having an advantage over Theis there.

I’m not sure I like any of these options better than “start Kanter vs Philly and don’t be on a back-to-back.”
 

benhogan

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Put me down for Richaun Holmes. Big tough kid who plays hard. He won't back down from Embiid or anyone else. Poirier, Javonte Green and Boston's 2020 first rounder might get it done.

I have no interest in guys like Len or Peoltl (too soft) or Larry Sanders (head case). I could be talked into Goga Bitadze, but there's no chance Indiana would trade him to a division rival unless Langford were coming back. Everyone else is too expensive, with the possible exception of Mo Bamba. Alas, Embiid would probably eat Bamba alive.
Larry Sanders, for the comedy alone, would be worth a 2nd.

BUT he hasn't played regularly since 2016 or been on HBO for 20yrs...
 

TripleOT

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Favors will probably get bought out by the Pels. That would be the best option without making a big change to the roster. Tough to match money without giving up Smart, which to me is a non-starter, or moving injury case Hayward. Tristan Thompson will probably be a buyout too. His agency's team, the Lakers, already have three bigs, but he probably goes there anyways.

I'd ship out a non-Griz pick and TL for Robinson. WCS could be a low asset cost option, as would Noel. If Drummond or LMA were available by shipping Hayward somewhere, I'd do it in a second. LMA has one year left on his deal, which lines up nicely with Tatum's extension, and Drummond, like GH, has a player option this summer.
 

lovegtm

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I really don’t get the Drummond thing. I might rather have Kanter, money aside.

Giving up Hayward with that as the return is complete insanity. Gordon Hayward is good. At worst, you trade him for an actual center who doesn’t suck.
 

BigSoxFan

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I really don’t get the Drummond thing. I might rather have Kanter, money aside.

Giving up Hayward with that as the return is complete insanity. Gordon Hayward is good. At worst, you trade him for an actual center who doesn’t suck.
Can you elaborate? We all know his limitations but there is real value to having a guy clean up the boards like he can. He’s not Dikembe out there but he’s still better than Kanter on that front, mostly because ever poster on this board is better at defense than Kanter. In terms of pure value, I agree I’d rather have Kanter at his salary but I’d also like to hook Drummond up to the Brad Machine and see what comes out.
 

Pilgrim

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maybe It’s because I don’t follow the league that closely, but Im not getting the Kanter/Drummond comparison. Drummond has better rate stats in twice the usage, and I thought he had a rep as a much better defender too.

Superficially, 16 boards, 2 blocks and a good % 16 ppg sounds like an amazing fit for this team.
 

lovegtm

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Can you elaborate? We all know his limitations but there is real value to having a guy clean up the boards like he can. He’s not Dikembe out there but he’s still better than Kanter on that front, mostly because ever poster on this board is better at defense than Kanter. In terms of pure value, I agree I’d rather have Kanter at his salary but I’d also like to hook Drummond up to the Brad Machine and see what comes out.
He’s the guy that you’d cast in a movie to play Imposing Center, but he’s not actually good at protecting the paint. Kanter is as good a rebounder. In terms of guarding the PnR (Kanter’s weakness), he’s not tons better in space. We saw how Tatum utterly roasted him 1-on-1 to get a stepback 3 with like 10 feet of space.

As far as offense goes, I’d rather have Kanter—he’s far more skilled.
 

NomarsFool

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I see Andre Drummond as basically the rebounding prowess of Kanter, without the defensive liabilities, and lacking Kanter's offensive game. But, I think that is a better fit for this team, as the Celtics don't really need more guys who can score.

However, giving up Hayward+ picks/young players for Drummond does seem like too high a price, and nothing else would be interesting for Detroit (or work salary wise)
 

Big John

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Is Holmes big enough to play Embiid? I don’t see him really having an advantage over Theis there.
Well Holmes is a little bigger and has a 7-1.5 wingspan. (Theis probably has a decent wingspan too, although I can't find a number.)
 

lovegtm

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Well Holmes is a little bigger and has a 7-1.5 wingspan. (Theis probably has a decent wingspan too, although I can't find a number.)
Yeah, Theis has very long arms. The problem with Holmes is that he’s not bulky enough to bang with Embiid, so you’re not gaining anything vs Theis (who is very good vs nearly everyone else).
 

BigSoxFan

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I see Andre Drummond as basically the rebounding prowess of Kanter, without the defensive liabilities, and lacking Kanter's offensive game. But, I think that is a better fit for this team, as the Celtics don't really need more guys who can score.

However, giving up Hayward+ picks/young players for Drummond does seem like too high a price, and nothing else would be interesting for Detroit (or work salary wise)
If we think Hayward is an opt out, it may be worth considering. Ultimately, I don’t see Ainge making a huge move like this. Hayward likely stays put.
 

Devizier

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I don’t see an available centerpiece big that fits what the Celtics are doing. People have been throwing around names like Poltl and Cauley-Stein and that seems about what we could expect. Really they just need depth more than anything else.
 

amarshal2

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Drummond doesn’t pass the eye test for me on defense. He’s too slow for the modern game. The days where those guys are key pieces in a championship team are looooong gone. I think you’d consider starting Theis over him against a lot of teams as well as down the stretch of close games with his FT woes. There’s absolutely no reason to give up a lot (Hayward!!!!) for somebody who doesn’t solve your problems and is going to be used situationally.

Reminder: Hayward is sporting a .626 TS% on 15.4 shots per game and 7.2 boards and 4.8 assists (counting stats per 36) this year. He and Smart are seemingly the only guys on the team who can make the interior pass for easy buckets. I'm sick of watching Theis/Grant/Kanter get great positioning underneath or going to the rim and having there be no Hayward/Smart to make the pass.

Side note: can Tatum not figure this out? He plays with his head up and consistently doesn't make the pass to guys when he can easily make it over the top at his size. If Kemba hasn't figured it out by now I assume he won't.
 
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lovegtm

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Drummond means another defender anchored in the paint and that would really kill the great results the Celtics have been getting from Tatum/Brown penetration.
So I don’t want Drummond, but he provides good vertical spacing. Don’t think that part would be a huge issue. The huge issue is that you’d be giving up an All-Star forward for a marginal upgrade at center.
 

lovegtm

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He does? 95% of his shots are within 10 feet of the basket. Average distance of 4.4 feet.
Vertical spacing = gravity on rolls with ability to threaten for lobs. Essentially makes your man commit harder to you as opposed to the ball handler. Also sucks in defender harder from the weak corner. Harden/Capela are masters of this; Utah at its best uses Gobert this way well too.
 

Big John

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Yeah, Theis has very long arms. The problem with Holmes is that he’s not bulky enough to bang with Embiid, so you’re not gaining anything vs Theis (who is very good vs nearly everyone else).
I like Holmes' grit and motor: I view him as the best of what's realistically available. He's not necessarily an upgrade over Theis, but he certainly is an upgrade over Poirier.

Frankly I don't see anyone out there with the ability to bang with Embiid who can be had without trading Hayward or Smart. Even expensive guys like Valenciunas (16M) or Vucevic (28M) cannot handle Embiid very well. Maybe Stephen Adams (25.8M) can, but he's a lousy fit for the Celtics in other ways.
 

benhogan

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Is Holmes big enough to play Embiid? I don’t see him really having an advantage over Theis there.

I’m not sure I like any of these options better than “start Kanter vs Philly and don’t be on a back-to-back.”
Holmes is slightly bigger/quicker than Theis. Can shoot FTs. Plus he spent a couple of seasons practicing daily with Joel, so very familiar with his game (Ok that may be a reach)

His advanced numbers ORtg/DRtg, BPM, WS, VORP, ON/OFF are very good the last 2 seasons.

Just turned 26, signed on the cheap for 2 seasons, so not a rental. Hook him into the "Brad Machine" (like that one BSF) and watch him continue to blossom.

Better version of Theis/Kanter hybrid IMO. I'm kind of surprised you don't like him. He has by far the best adv net rtg +2.3 for any King regular (every other King is a negative). Really wouldn't expect the Kings to deal him.


 
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Cesar Crespo

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Why would the Kings trade Holmes though? I'd guess they are going to try and make the playoffs. Is it because of Bagley?

I like Holmes a bit. I was the one who initially suggested Holmes for Rozier a few years back, I think. Then he got injured and Rozier took a minor leap. It's interesting that he abandoned the 3 point shot because he had some success in his 2nd season.
 

benhogan

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Why would the Kings trade Holmes though? I'd guess they are going to try and make the playoffs. Is it because of Bagley?

I like Holmes a bit. I was the one who initially suggested Holmes for Rozier a few years back, I think. Then he got injured and Rozier took a minor leap. It's interesting that he abandoned the 3 point shot because he had some success in his 2nd season.
The Kings won't deal him unless they tailspin or Buddy gets injured. He also wouldn't come cheap if those things happened.

Holmes probably stopped launching 3s since his eff FG%/TS% is through the roof just taking 2s. But probably could re-incorporate the 3 if he wanted to (FT% as evidence) .

I've been pimping Poeltl recently since he's probably more available, but Holmes may be better.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Holmes is pretty well loved by the analytics/pundit community this year so even if he is available, its likely going to cost a contending team more than a few deep bench pieces. So I don't think Javonte Green, Poirier and the C's late first rounder are what gets it done.

I think others are on to something - the C's don't have a traditional big by design. While its clear they miss some of the things that one brings to the table, the cost has to be analyzed not just in terms of players and money but also how it impacts their style of play. Having a guy who can defend in the paint is nice but if that player cannot defend the arc or maintain spacing on the offensive end, its probably not worth spending assets on.
 

Cesar Crespo

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And in trades that won't happen, Indiana is getting Oladipo back soon. Myles Turner + Jeremy Lamb for Gordon Hayward. Personally, I'd prefer they just keep Hayward than trade him for "good but not that good" bigs like Drummond and Myles Turner. Drummond's game is limited in today's NBA and Myles Turner has Andrew Wiggins disease (aka he hasn't really improve since entering the NBA, though it looks like Wiggins actually has improved this year.) I think one could even make the argument Myles Turner has regressed. I was so high on him after his first 2-3 seasons but he's still that player. It's amazing he's not even 24 yet. Feels like he's been around forever and has been a trade target for years. He's like a lesser Anthony Davis, always mentioned in trades.

If Turner does has a late leap like Wiggins though, watch out. Unlike Wiggins, Turner is good pre leap. Jeremy Lamb makes the salaries work and I think the Cs could possibly use him off the bench... though his 3 point shooting leaves a lot to be desired. Tj Warren would work too but I think they'd prefer to keep him over Lamb. I'd prefer him over Lamb anyway. He's developed a nice 3 point shot the last 2 seasons and the C's could use some shooters off the bench. It feels so weird calling Warren a shooter.
 

lovegtm

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I like Holmes. I just don’t think he’s getting dealt at a price the Celtics like, and he doesn’t solve the Embiid issue, so I wouldn’t pay the price.

Ceteris paribus of course I’d like to have him, but ceteris is rarely paribus.
 

lovegtm

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And in trades that won't happen, Indiana is getting Oladipo back soon. Myles Turner + Jeremy Lamb for Gordon Hayward. Personally, I'd prefer they just keep Hayward than trade him for "good but not that good" bigs like Drummond and Myles Turner. Drummond's game is limited in today's NBA and Myles Turner has Andrew Wiggins disease (aka he hasn't really improve since entering the NBA, though it looks like Wiggins actually has improved this year.) I think one could even make the argument Myles Turner has regressed. I was so high on him after his first 2-3 seasons but he's still that player. It's amazing he's not even 24 yet. Feels like he's been around forever and has been a trade target for years. He's like a lesser Anthony Davis, always mentioned in trades.

If Turner does has a late leap like Wiggins though, watch out. Unlike Wiggins, Turner is good pre leap. Jeremy Lamb makes the salaries work and I think the Cs could possibly use him off the bench... though his 3 point shooting leaves a lot to be desired. Tj Warren would work too but I think they'd prefer to keep him over Lamb. I'd prefer him over Lamb anyway. He's developed a nice 3 point shot the last 2 seasons and the C's could use some shooters off the bench. It feels so weird calling Warren a shooter.
I really, really want to see a big balls Indy/Boston trade just for the hell of it.
 

Jimbodandy

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I really, really want to see a big balls Indy/Boston trade just for the hell of it.
Turner has had a predictably shitty year on a misconstructed team. If Danny knew for a fact that Hayward was leaving leaving, I'd dump him for Turner and junk and not bat an eyelash over it. If that trade happens, it's because Gordon doesn't want to be here long term. Turner is a stud in a bad situation.

And yes, Lamb is junk.
 

Cesar Crespo

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And yes, Lamb is junk.
Yeah, but I'd have to imagine he'd still be a 15-20 minute rotational player. He's signed for another 2 seasons after this one too. Considering the C's don't really have any mid salary players besides Smart, Lamb might be decent as contract filler... which is exactly what he is in a deal for Turner.

It's him or Warren and I don't see Indiana giving us Warren as salary filler. McDermott might work, or at least they could get it to work. Don't see why Indiana would prefer that to Lamb tho.

Basically Lamb is junk, so that's who we get.
 

mauf

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Are we sure Kanter is a terrible defender? He hasn’t looked bad to me, and DBPM bears me out. I’m wondering if his rep is due to early-career struggles, coupled with playing more recently for a Knicks squad that was a train wreck.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Are we sure Kanter is a terrible defender? He hasn’t looked bad to me, and DBPM bears me out. I’m wondering if his rep is due to early-career struggles, coupled with playing more recently for a Knicks squad that was a train wreck.
Maybe not but I think it's pretty clear he's not a good defender. Even if Kanter is average, they should still be looking for a defensive big.

It's also possible that big is already on the team if he could just stay healthy.
 

DJnVa

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Are we sure Kanter is a terrible defender? He hasn’t looked bad to me, and DBPM bears me out. I’m wondering if his rep is due to early-career struggles, coupled with playing more recently for a Knicks squad that was a train wreck.
Stevens seems to be selective about when he plays. He's likely not getting minutes against the worst matchups.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Also, what would people actually trade for Jakob Poltl that would make SA actually want to trade him? The Bucks pick? Is a 2nd rounder really enough?
 

benhogan

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Sanders was alive in August because he was playing in the Big 3. What happened?
I was speaking metaphorically about Larry Sanders' hoops game...I can't believe he was even mentioned in this thread, the guy was terrible several years ago...
 
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