What does the Red Sox outfield look like in 2024?

[jbupstate]

What team has major league ready pitching to deal and is willing to assume a year, but just a year, of Verdugo’s contract? It’s a difficult needle to thread- it would clearly be a contending team, but one who had a pitcher it doesn’t need, and a hole in the OF. Hard to see a great match, IMO.

I think this off-season would be the time to acquire something of quality for Verdugo. Coming off a great defensive season with decent offensive production and an inexpensive year left for the acquiring team to evaluate fit long term.

I would only move him for a major league ready pitcher or position player. I think there is a real possibility the player we see today is peak Verdugo. If he starts slowly next year or the real issues with Cora (and the team) filter out you’re probably going to receive less or potentially lose him for nothing to free agency.

I like his passion and thought he had some leadership qualities the team needed desperately this year. But after the latest benching I’ve changed my mind. Good player but he’s not a kid anymore.

If the Sox don’t see him as part of the future I would hope they try to maximize the return. But I’m also waffling with this stance because a motivated, contract year Verdugo could still step up another smaller notch.

 

[nighthob]

What obvious replacement? Rafaela? That's quite a risk, IMO.

If the goal is more pitching via trade, I imagine Rafaela would have even more trade value than Verdugo. Might even turn out to be a sell high situation if his hitting success in Worcester so far doesn't translate to the big leagues (which is a distinct possibility).

He also has upside that Verdugo never will. Part of the idea of having a steady stream of cheap position players coming up from the minors is that it allows you to spend freely on pitching. And it's not really a risk as Verdugo is an averagish offensive player. And if not having to pay Verdugo's long term cost makes it easier to pay Yamamoto market rates, it's worth it.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

Could we just trade for that Betts guy in LA? I'm guessing he'd do pretty well in RF at Fenway.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Could we just trade for that Betts guy in LA? I'm guessing he'd do pretty well in RF at Fenway.

Do you think LA would cover maybe those last few years of his contract? Those could be a heavy weight to lug around

 

[scottyno]

He also has upside that Verdugo never will. Part of the idea of having a steady stream of cheap position players coming up from the minors is that it allows you to spend freely on pitching. And it's not really a risk as Verdugo is an averagish offensive player. And if not having to pay Verdugo's long term cost makes it easier to pay Yamamoto market rates, it's worth it.

Of course it's a risk. The risk is you're replacing an above average 3ish win player who has a pretty high floor with a guy that will have had at most a handful of major league ABs. And they can easily afford both Yamamoto and Verdugo, they have a ton of money to play with in the next few years.

 

[kazuneko]

.. If the Sox don’t see him as part of the future I would hope they try to maximize the return. But I’m also waffling with this stance because a motivated, contract year Verdugo could still step up another smaller notch.

I just don’t see any return the Sox could get for Dugie as significant enough to justify a trade. The Sox need more, not less, players like Verdugo, and when Turner leaves there will be plenty of ABs to go around for Rafaela either in the IF or OF, as his positional flexibility should allow the Sox to regularly DH one the Sox’s defensively challenged regulars.

 

[bosockboy]

I just don’t see any return the Sox could get for Dugie as significant enough to justify a trade. The Sox need more, not less, players like Verdugo, and when Turner leaves there will be plenty of ABs to go around for Rafaela either in the IF or OF, as his positional flexibility should allow the Sox to regularly DH one the Sox’s defensively challenged regulars.

Someone mentioned Rafaela as a Tony Phillips comp, which fits into this model.

 

[Martin and Woods]

Not that I'm advocating for it, but the trade simulator (I know) says that Verdugo to Brewers for Burnes and Yelich (5 more years @ $26M plus $20M vesting option) is an overpay by the Sox. With money to spend, add Yamamoto and the staff is looking rather strongish next year. Point being, I wouldn't say we need to keep or trade Verdugo one way or the other at this point, but it would be wise to at least inquire and listen.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I dunno…. That Betts guy has played a variety of positions all over the field. I like my steak well done and my player to have one position.
missionary.

 

[kazuneko]

Someone mentioned Rafaela as a Tony Phillips comp, which fits into this model.

Rafaela replacing Turner would allow the DH position to shift strategically depending on the pitcher. If a groundball pitcher like Bello is pitching, perhaps Devers would DH and Rafaela would move to the IF. In other situations he could stay in center and push Yoshida to DH.

 

[chawson]

I think the main issue with Verdugo, besides perhaps the 'tude stuff, is that he shouldn't really be hitting against left-handed pitching. Luckily, we've got the game's best lefty-masher on our team, and he plays the same position. Unluckily, it's Alex's contract year and he almost certainly doesn't want to hit free agency as a platoon player.

We really need to clear a lane for Rafaela, or else trade him (or Duran, which I don't think anyone wants to do). If we're keeping Rafaela, what we need is a veteran who can reasonably be counted on to contribute and is able to be jettisoned if the rookie seizes the opportunity. That's not Verdugo. He's not someone you can bench if Rafaela takes off.

I'd be interested in a one-year deal with a revived Jason Heyward to pair with Refsnyder, with Rafaela cycling through CF/RF/2B/SS until he sticks (or someone gets hurt). Heyward’s still got the defensive chops for RF, he’s been a better hitter than Verdugo this year, vs. RHP and overall, and is much more inclined to accept a part-time role.

 

[ZMart100]

We really need to clear a lane for Rafaela, or else trade him (or Duran, which I don't think anyone wants to do). If we're keeping Rafaela, what we need is a veteran who can reasonably be counted on to contribute and is able to be jettisoned if the rookie seizes the opportunity. That's not Verdugo. He's not someone you can bench if Rafaela takes off.

I don't see the urgency to make a decision this offseason. Ceddane has options.

 

[scottyno]

I think the main issue with Verdugo, besides perhaps the 'tude stuff, is that he shouldn't really be hitting against left-handed pitching. Luckily, we've got the game's best lefty-masher on our team, and he plays the same position. Unluckily, it's Alex's contract year and he almost certainly doesn't want to hit free agency as a platoon player.

We really need to clear a lane for Rafaela, or else trade him (or Duran, which I don't think anyone wants to do). If we're keeping Rafaela, what we need is a veteran who can reasonably be counted on to contribute and is able to be jettisoned if the rookie seizes the opportunity. That's not Verdugo. He's not someone you can bench if Rafaela takes off.

Why can't they jettison Verdugo if he's being outplayed by Rafaela after a decent chunk of 2024?

 

[kazuneko]

I think the main issue with Verdugo, besides perhaps the 'tude stuff, is that he shouldn't really be hitting against left-handed pitching. Luckily, we've got the game's best lefty-masher on our team, and he plays the same position. Unluckily, it's Alex's contract year and he almost certainly doesn't want to hit free agency as a platoon player.

So because of this the Sox need to trade him? Verdugo has been benched against lefties quite a bit in his career, and as much as he might not want that to increase in a contract year, he can hardly complain; nor does he have any leverage.

We really need to clear a lane for Rafaela, or else trade him (or Duran, which I don't think anyone wants to do). If we're keeping Rafaela, what we need is a veteran who can reasonably be counted on to contribute and is able to be jettisoned if the rookie seizes the opportunity. That's not Verdugo. He's not someone you can bench if Rafaela takes off.

The easiest and best way to clear a lane for Rafaela isn’t to jettison Verdugo but, much more simply, to just allow him to take the lions share of the ABs that will be opened up by Turner’s departure. Obviously he wouldn’t DH, but luckily that’s the most natural position for a bunch of the team’s other starters and Rafaela has the positional flexibility to allow those players to rotate through the DH spot.

 

[scottyno]

The easiest and best way to clear a lane for Rafaela isn’t to jettison Verdugo but, much more simply, to just allow him to take the lions share of the ABs that will be opened up by Turner’s departure. Obviously he wouldn’t DH, but luckily that’s the most natural position for a bunch of the team’s other starters and Rafaela has the positional flexibility to allow those players to rotate through the DH spot.

That team no longer has a backup 1b (unless it's refsnyder who has done it before but hardly ever in the last 7 years) and massively downgrades an offense that has already been inconsistent this year. Rafaela as a super sub makes some sense, but if they lose Turner they need to add another proven bat to the lineup.

 

[kazuneko]

That team no longer has a backup 1b (unless it's refsnyder who has done it before but hardly ever in the last 7 years) and massively downgrades an offense that has already been inconsistent this year. Rafaela as a super sub makes some sense, but if they lose Turner they need to add another proven bat to the lineup.

Not sure why Refsnyder would no longer be able to play 1b - it’s not typically seen as the most difficult position on the diamond. I’d also hope they could get Devers comfortable there as it’s probably the best position -other than DH- for him.
And I don’t think there is any way of being sure that giving a 23-year-old Rafaela ABs that would have otherwise gone to a 39 year-old Turner is a “massive downgrade” on offense. Sure top prospects involve risk, but so do 39-year old DHs. Of note, I think the 2023 season’s list of age 39+ hitters who have had healthy and productive seasons equals zero batters. And yeah, Rafaela only gets a real chance next year if you don’t fill the lineup with established players expecting to be starters
And while the offensive impact of that decision may not be clear, the defensive upgrade from Turner to Rafaela (which plays out as increased DH time for the team’s bad fielders) is guaranteed - and that’s something that should also have an impact on the pitching. I mean, Jesus, how many times this season have the Sox pitchers been screwed by one defensive miscue after another- with few of these mistakes ever ruled errors (official scorers don’t seem to do that anymore).
The team needs to focus on improving its defense (Rafaela) and pitching (Yamamoto please) and on offense hope that a full season of Story helps. I think they can also hope that Rafaela does emerge, offensively as well as defensively, and may also be able to look forever to the arrival of Yorke’s bat at 2b.

 

[scottyno]

Not sure why Refsnyder would no longer be able to play 1b - it’s not typically seen as the most difficult position on the diamond. I’d also hope they could get Devers comfortable there as it’s probably the best position -other than DH- for him.
And I don’t think there is any way of being sure that giving a 23-year-old Rafaela ABs that would have otherwise gone to a 39 year-old Turner is a “massive downgrade” on offense. Sure top prospects involve risk, but so do 39-year old DHs. Of note, I think the 2023 season’s list of age 39+ hitters who have had healthy and productive seasons equals zero batters. And yeah, Rafaela only gets a real chance next year if you don’t fill the lineup with established players expecting to be starters
And while the offensive impact of that decision may not be clear, the defensive upgrade from Turner to Rafaela (which plays out as increased DH time for the team’s bad fielders) is guaranteed - and that’s something that should also have an impact on the pitching. I mean, Jesus, how many times this season have the Sox pitchers been screwed by one defensive miscue after another- with few of these mistakes ever ruled errors (official scorers don’t seem to do that anymore).
The team needs to focus on improving its defense (Rafaela) and pitching (Yamamoto please) and on offense hope that a full season of Story helps. I think they can also hope that Rafaela does emerge, offensively as well as defensively, and may also be able to look forever to the arrival of Yorke’s bat at 2b.

Turner is in the conversation for the Sox best hitter this year at age 38, so unless you think he's going to completely fall apart over the next 8 months it's safe to say going from him to a rookie is likely to be a huge offensive downgrade. And Rafaela can still get that time in the field without replacing Turner

 

[kazuneko]

Turner is in the conversation for the Sox best hitter this year at age 38, so unless you think he's going to completely fall apart over the next 8 months it's safe to say going from him to a rookie is likely to be a huge offensive downgrade. And Rafaela can still get that time in the field without replacing Turner

The point is that there is significant risk with any 39 year old, which should be pretty clear. I just can’t fathom why anyone would look at this team - who has been horrific at defense, average at pitching and quite good at hitting and think that what they should spend their resources on is a 39-year old dedicated DH.

 

[scottyno]

The point is that there is significant risk with any 39 year old, which should be pretty clear. I just can’t fathom why anyone would look at this team - whose been horrific at defense, average at pitching and quite good at hitting and think that what they should spend their resources on is a 39-year old dedicated DH.

102 ops+ is quite good yet a 107 era+ is average? The offense has not been good overall, they've been average, streaky, and get to play half their games in a massively hitter friendly park.

And by resources we're probably talking somewhere around 10-15m a year on a 1-2 year deal for a 38 year old who has raked all season, so I'm not sure why there is significantly more risk for him at 39 than at 38. And has also started games at 3 different positions this year. They have a lot of money to spend, they aren't dropping significant resources to re-sign Turner unless the market goes absolutely bonkers.

 

[kazuneko]

102 ops+ is quite good yet a 107 era+ is average? The offense has not been good overall, they've been average, streaky, and get to play half their games in a massively hitter friendly park.

Fair enough. Seems like their recent offensive struggles have dipped them closer to average.
That said, are you saying that biggest concern next year is really their offense? Really? Is defense just not a priority?
Without Turner - the 24’ Sox would have a heart of the order that includes Duran, Yoshida, Devers, Story, Verdugo/ Refsnyder and Casas with Wong at catcher, and presumably Urius at 2B. It’s not the 27’ Yankees, but it’s plenty capable of carrying Rafaela’s bat in the 9 hole (depending on how he hits).
Meanwhile, The Sox are currently 27th in defensive runs saved and 30th in fielding percentage, with 4 of their 8 defensive players among the worst at their respective positions. And while you’re right Turner probably plays a better 1b and 3b than both Cases and Devers, that doesn’t mean Cora will play him much defensively. Even in his age 38 season the Sox have intentionally limited his play in the field to avoid injury; that’s not getting better in year 39.
Meanwhile, Rafaela provides a gold glove caliber glove in CF and has the type of positional flexibility that will allow the Sox to consistently be able to keep at least one of their lead gloved regulars off the field.

And by resources we're probably talking somewhere around 10-15m a year on a 1-2 year deal for a 38 year old who has raked all season, so I'm not sure why there is significantly more risk for him at 39 than at 38.

1-2 year deal for a 38 year old? First, he isn’t going to be 38 years old when he signs his next contract; he turns 39 in November. And are you suggesting they should consider a 2 year deal? For a 39 year old?
And I’m confused - are you really not sure why there would be significantly more risk of decline at 38 than 39? Come on. In 2021, Joey Votto played 129 games and put up a .938 OPS - at age 37. At age 38 he played 91 games and put up a .689 OPS- and no one was shocked. Just like no one will be shocked if Turner falls off a cliff next year. Father Time is undefeated.
It really feels like you are too inclined to overlook the decline risk of an aging DH like Turner, while being simultaneously overly concerned about Rafaela’s adjustment to the majors. I’d say both are a risk but at least with Rafaela it won’t cost you $15 million (~) and there is almost zero chance that he doesn’t at least improve the team’s biggest weakness: defense.

 

[streeter88]

Wonder if we’ll ever find out what went on between Cora and Verdugo. Also which is easier to find, a manager who teaches baserunning and defensive fundamentals, or a player who can play RF competently in Fenway?

edit: my tone may be snarky, but I think that’s the major reason why posters assume Verdugo is getting traded. I think the Sox should be keeping him if nothing else because he actually plays the field well, on a team where fielding has been poor at best.

 

[pjheff]

edit: my tone may be snarky, but I think that’s the major reason why posters assume Verdugo is getting traded. I think the Sox should be keeping him if nothing else because he actually plays the field well, on a team where fielding has been poor at best.

Posters assume that Verdugo may be traded because he is entering the last year of team control and has sufficient flaws as an offensive player to make one question whether he should be extended at free agent dollars beyond his rookie contract.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Sure, but this team absolutely loves one year deals. It’s weird to have a good player on a one year deal and think that he must be traded, when he’s exactly the kind of guy they’d want to sign to a short term deal, if they could. Moving him is one way to get value for him, but a year of him playing also has value.

 

[TFisNEXT]

Sure, but this team absolutely loves one year deals. It’s weird to have a good player on a one year deal and think that he must be traded, when he’s exactly the kind of guy they’d want to sign to a short term deal, if they could. Moving him is one way to get value for him, but a year of him playing also has value.

I’d be surprised if they trade him at this point. Unless maybe there is more to the Cora/Verdugo story we don’t know about. But it doesn’t feel like they’d get something more valuable than one year of him in an offseason trade. At least not in terms of something close to MLB-ready talent. They are more likely to get a couple lottery tickets in return that might takes years to bear fruit if they do at all.

This team is ready to make a run at the playoffs and possibly more in 2024, so trading a useful starter for prospects doesn’t seem in line with those ambitions.

Someone upthread mentioned that the only trade that really makes sense this offseason is if a team needed to fill an outfield hole and had a surplus of starting pitchers to be able to trade one for Dugie. But I can’t think of a current team like that off the top of my head.

 

[nvalvo]

I’d be surprised if they trade him at this point. Unless maybe there is more to the Cora/Verdugo story we don’t know about. But it doesn’t feel like they’d get something more valuable than one year of him in an offseason trade. At least not in terms of something close to MLB-ready talent. They are more likely to get a couple lottery tickets in return that might takes years to bear fruit if they do at all.

This team is ready to make a run at the playoffs and possibly more in 2024, so trading a useful starter for prospects doesn’t seem in line with those ambitions.

Someone upthread mentioned that the only trade that really makes sense this offseason is if a team needed to fill an outfield hole and had a surplus of starting pitchers to be able to trade one for Dugie. But I can’t think of a current team like that off the top of my head.

Cleveland?

Kwan/Laureano/Straw/Gonzalez/Brennan has precisely one player with an OPS above .700. They have George Valera in AAA, however, who's a pretty interesting prospect, and a whole slew of young SP talent in the majors and the minors.

They have a lot of young pitching.

 

[Niastri]

Status quo or shake things up?

On the Roster Under Control for Next Year
CF/LF Jarren Duran (L) - 126 wRC+, 2.6 fWAR, 2.0 bWAR - 2 more pre-arb years (27).

LF Masataka Yoshida (L) - 127 wRC+, 1.4 fWAR, 1.7 bWAR - 4/$72m remaining on contract (30).

RF Alex Verdugo (L) - 110 wRC+, 2.2 fWAR, 2.8 bWAR - last arb year, made $6.3m this year (27).

OF Rob Refsynder (R) - 108 wRC+, 0.6 fWAR, 0.2 bWAR - signed for $2m for next year with an option starting at $2m for '25 with escalators (33).

On the 40-Man Roster Under Control for Next Year
CF/SS Ceddanne Rafaela (R) AAA - 144 wRC+, 1.026 OPS (23).

OF Wilyer Abreu (L) AAA - 106 wRC+, .828 OPS (24).

Our Free Agent
OF Adam Duvall (R) - 113 wRC+, 1.1 fWAR, 0.8 bWAR (35).

Free Agents
OF/1B Cody Bellinger (L) - 148 wRC+, 3.8 fWAR, 3.9 bWAR (28).
OF Teoscar Hernández (R) - 96 wRC+, 0.8 fWAR, 1.3 bWAR (31).
OF Joey Gallo (L) - 104 wRC+, 0.6 fWAR, 0.4 bWAR (30).
CF Kevin Kiermaier (R) - 109 wRC+, 1.8 fWAR, 3.1 bWAR (33).
OF Joc Pederson (L) - 113 wRC+, 0.7 fWAR, 0.6 bWAR (31).
OF Harrison Bader (R) - 95 wRC+, 1.6 fWAR, 1.6 bWAR (29).
OF Andrew McCutchen (R) - 117 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR, 1.3 bWAR (37).
OF Charlie Blackmon (L) - 96 wRC+, 0.1 fWAR, 0.2 bWAR (37).
OF Michael Brantley (L) - 127 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR, 1.3 bWAR (2022) (36).
OF Tommy Pham (R) - 118 wRC+, 1.5 fWAR, 1.0 bWAR (36).
OF Randal Grichuk (R) - 112 wRC+, 0.7 fWAR, 0.5 bWAR (32).
OF David Peralta (L) - 94 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR, 0.8 bWAR (36).
OF AJ Pollock (R) - 44 wRC+, -0.7 fWAR, -0.8 bWAR (36).
OF Jurickson Profar (B) - 78 wRC+, -1.5 fWAR, -1.3 bWAR (31).
OF Hunter Renfroe (R) - 103 wRC+, 1.4 fWAR, 0.7 bWAR (32).
OF Robbie Grossman (B) - 92 wRC+, -0.2 fWAR, -0.6 bWAR (32).
OF Wil Myers (R) - 42 wRC+, -0.8 fWAR, -0.7 bWAR (33).
OF Michael A. Taylor (R) - 87 wRC+, 1.0 fWAR, 1.2 bWAR (33).
OF Jesse Winker (L) - 66 wRC+, -0.8 fWAR, -0.7 bWAR (30).

Potential Free Agents
OF Michael Conforto (L) - 97 wRC+, 0.6 fWAR, 0.3 bWAR (31) - $18m player option.
OF Jorge Soler (R) - 126 wRC+, 1.7 fWAR, 0.5 bWAR (32) - $9m player option (technically an opt out).
OF/1B Mark Canha (R) - 98 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR, 1.2 bWAR (35) - $11.5m team option with a $2m buyout.
OF Max Kepler (L) - 108 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR, 1.1 bWAR (31) - $10m team option with a $1m buyout.
OF Víctor Robles (R) - 111 wRC+, 0.4 fWAR, 0.0 bWAR (26) - $3.3m team option.
OF Eddie Rosario (R) - 95 wRC+, 0.4 fWAR, -0.2 bWAR (32) - $9m team option.

The Pipeline
CF/RF Roman Anthony (L) A+ (SoxProspects #2/my #2) - 184 wRC+, 1.078 OPS (19) - Rule 5 Eligible 12/2026

CF/RF Miguel Bleis (R) A (#3/#3) - 72 wrC+, .607 OPS (20) - Rule 5 Eligible 12/2025

SS/CF Nazzan Zanetello (R) FCL (#9/#15) - 29 wRC+, .339 OPS (4 games) (18) - Rule 5 Eligible 12/2027

OF Allan Castro (L) A (#20/#37) - 120 wRC+, .810 OPS (20) - Rule 5 Eligible 12/2023

OF Natanael Yuten (B) FCL (#44/#48) - 132 wRC+, .882 OPS (19) - Rule 5 Eligible 12/2026

OF Phillip Sikes (R) AA (#46/#70) - 85 wRC+, .667 OPS (24) - Rule 5 Eligible 12/2024

OF Corey Rosier (L) AA (#56/#65) - 98 wRC+, .611 OPS (24) - Rule 5 Eligible 12/2024

OF Alexis Hernandez (R) A (NR/#53) - 99 wRC+, .686 OPS (21) - Rule 5 Eligible 12/2023

OF Juan Chacon (L) A+ (NR/#82) - 103 wRC+, .685 OPS (21) - Rule 5 Eligible 12/2023

OF Yosander Asencio (B) DSL (NR/#83) - 153 wRC+, .932 OPS (19) - Rule 5 Eligible 12/2026

OF Bryan Gonzalez (R) A+ (NR/#88) - 102 wRC+, .747 OPS (22) - Rule 5 Eligible 12/2023

OF Eduardo Lopez (L) AA (NR/#91) - 106 wRC+, .742 OPS (21) - Rule 5 Eligible 12/2023

OF Caden Rose (R) FCL (NR/#97) - N/A (22) - Rule 5 Eligible 12/2026

OF Gilberto Jimenez (B) A (NR/#83) - 97 wRC+, .695 OPS (23) - Rule 5 Eligible 12/2023

OF Andy Lugo (R) FCL (NR/#100) - 113 wRC+, .781 OPS (2022 in DSL) (20) - Rule 5 Eligible 12/2025

OF Nelly Taylor (L) FCL (NR/#103) - N/A (22) - Rule 5 Eligible 12/2026

OF Albertson Asigen (R) A (NR/#107) - 153 wRC+, .850 OPS (22) - Rule 5 Eligible 12/2024

OF Karim Ayubi (R) FCL (NR/#116) - 137 wRC+, .767 OPS (20) - Rule 5 Eligible 12/2025

OF Jhostynxon Garcia (R) A (NR/#121) 95 wRC+, .668 OPS (21) - Rule 5 Eligible 12/2023

OF Kelvin Diaz (R) FCL (NR/#125) 122 wRC+, .788 OPS (21) - Rule 5 Eligible 12/2023

My Bottom Line
I don't really have a strong opinion on what they should do...I think they would be totally fine going into the season with the 4 incumbents + C Note, but if they want to get creative & make some moves, they could certainly do that as well.

Whether to let Verdugo play out his final year, extend him, or trade him will be interesting. & I know some people want to sell high on Duran. That group of 5 does make a lot of sense together, though, especially if Rafaela can hit Major League pitching at all.

Bellinger could be a DH/1b/OF guy to help replace Turner if they want to make a big splash.... Otherwise, why spend big money in the place where we are best situated?

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Perhaps Verdugo will have the mythical “contract year” career best season too?

 

[nighthob]

Posters assume that Verdugo may be traded because he is entering the last year of team control and has sufficient flaws as an offensive player to make one question whether he should be extended at free agent dollars beyond his rookie contract.

I mean in another 4-5 years we’ll be having the exact same discussion about Rafaela. And I’ll probably be of the same opinion, loved the cost controlled years, but let someone else have the second deal.

 

[TFisNEXT]

Cleveland?

Kwan/Laureano/Straw/Gonzalez/Brennan has precisely one player with an OPS above .700. They have George Valera in AAA, however, who's a pretty interesting prospect, and a whole slew of young SP talent in the majors and the minors.

They have a lot of young pitching.

Yeah maybe. Cleveland is in a weak division too where they can contend. They might find one year of Verdugo enticing enough.

 

[scottyno]

Fair enough. Seems like their recent offensive struggles have dipped them closer to average.
That said, are you saying that biggest concern next year is really their offense? Really? Is defense just not a priority?
Without Turner - the 24’ Sox would have a heart of the order that includes Duran, Yoshida, Devers, Story, Verdugo/ Refsnyder and Casas with Wong at catcher, and presumably Urius at 2B. It’s not the 27’ Yankees, but it’s plenty capable of carrying Rafaela’s bat in the 9 hole (depending on how he hits).

They had all those guys this year except Story (Turner is hitting much better than Story did last year) and the offense has been mediocre

 

[chawson]

I don't see the urgency to make a decision this offseason. Ceddane has options.

He has options, but I don’t think he’s kept down much past May if he’s hitting like this. And if he’s in Boston, he should play at least 4-5 games a week to acclimate him. I don’t see that happening in a Yoshida-Duran-Verdugo outfield.

And I don’t much see it happening with a Duran-Rafaela-Verdugo outfield (with Yoshida at DH) either. We probably still need another outfielder as a safeguard. That outfielder could be Yoshida, but then we’d need a decent bat to DH (not Dalbec).

Sure, but this team absolutely loves one year deals. It’s weird to have a good player on a one year deal and think that he must be traded, when he’s exactly the kind of guy they’d want to sign to a short term deal, if they could. Moving him is one way to get value for him, but a year of him playing also has value.

I think you’re right that the team loves one-year deals, but what they love even more is to clear a path for top flight prospects to break in.

One-year pacts are attractive not only because they mitigate long-term risk, but because they don’t block a young player breaking out on the major league team, which is much more valuable to us.

I think Verdugo’s 2024 arb3 season could be more comparable to Renfroe’s 2022. Kiké and Renfroe both had good 2021s that recuperated them into full-time players, but the drawback there was that you couldn’t get enough playing time to allow Duran (with Kiké sliding to right) or less so, maybe Refsnyder or Cordero, to break-out.

Verdugo is to Rafaela what Renfroe was to Duran. Of course, Duran didn’t stick in 2022, and the whole season went up in flames. But the Sox cleared a lane for him. There was much less of a lane this year. Duran’s breakout required injuries to Duvall, Chang and Mondesi for him to get the playing time.

 

[chawson]

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1690817698865795075?s=46&t=Tl7uNH0-pxEyJtNj1BktDA


We may also be overlooking this guy’s 2024 contributions too.

How would an Abreu/Refsnyder right field platoon in 2024 compare to 625 PAs from Verdugo?

 

[Fishy1]

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1690817698865795075?s=46&t=Tl7uNH0-pxEyJtNj1BktDA


We may also be overlooking this guy’s 2024 contributions too.

How would an Abreu/Refsnyder right field platoon in 2024 compare to 625 PAs from Verdugo?

Or a Rafaela/Abreu platoon, depending.

I think there's a good enough chance that it would be favorable to justify shopping Verdugo. Not that he'd necessarily land something good enough to justify it, but compare Triston's 2022 line - the impressive discipline and the pop, the middling average - in AAA with Abreu and tell me the lines don't look very, very similar.

I say that with full awareness of how good Verdugo has been this year and how vital his defense has been. I think Verdugo in right is the save move but not necessarily the best use of assets.

 

[Al Zarilla]

I really like Duran for his wild and wacky baserunning ability, the chaos caused to the other team and all. But, they really need to find out if he's a good hitter or not. He's had such a streaky season and it even almost comes out to good month, bad month, good month, etc. By BA:

.396 in April
.236 in May
.286 in June
.384 in July
.167 in August

Gotta get him more consistent than that. Do hitting coaches do anything anymore?

 

[tims4wins]

I really like Duran for his wild and wacky baserunning ability, the chaos caused to the other team and all. But, they really need to find out if he's a good hitter or not. He's had such a streaky season and it even almost comes out to good month, bad month, good month, etc. By BA:

.396 in April
.236 in May
.286 in June
.384 in July
.167 in August

Gotta get him more consistent than that. Do hitting coaches do anything anymore?

27 hits in July. 7 in August. 1 since August 4.

 

[simplicio]

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1690817698865795075?s=46&t=Tl7uNH0-pxEyJtNj1BktDA


We may also be overlooking this guy’s 2024 contributions too.

How would an Abreu/Refsnyder right field platoon in 2024 compare to 625 PAs from Verdugo?

A .900 OPS sounds pretty enticing before you remember it's the same team/league where Bobby D. has a .990

 

[TFisNEXT]

A .900 OPS sounds pretty enticing before you remember it's the same team/league where Bobby D. has a .990

Compared to Dalbec, I do like Abreu’s 21% K rate and 16% BB rate.

Abreu would be much more likely to survive MLB pitching even if those diverge to something like 27/10.

 

[themactavish]

Wonder if we’ll ever find out what went on between Cora and Verdugo. Also which is easier to find, a manager who teaches baserunning and defensive fundamentals, or a player who can play RF competently in Fenway?

edit: my tone may be snarky, but I think that’s the major reason why posters assume Verdugo is getting traded. I think the Sox should be keeping him if nothing else because he actually plays the field well, on a team where fielding has been poor at best.

Maybe it's nothing, but watching Sox games lately, Verdugo's demeanor seems entirely different than usual. He has always seemed like a happy-go-lucky fellow, smiling a lot and doing a good amount of chatting with players. But lately, he never seems to smile, and his body language just looks like a different guy. Obviously, I'm relying on the NESN camera shots, so he could be himself at times I can't see, but if I were betting on the basis of what I've seen, I'd have to say that his spirits have taken a serious hit of late. He looks like an unhappy guy now, like a guy whose feelings have been hurt or someone playing with a big load on his shoulders. It would be interesting to know what went on between Cora and Verdugo. Whatever it was, it looks to me like it had a significant impact, unless something else has taken Verdugo down.

 

[chawson]

Wilyer Abreu is #1 on Baseball America’s Hot Sheet ($) of prospect risers this week. (Teel was #6 and Yordanny Monegro #8).

1. Wilyer Abreu, OF, Red Sox
Team: Triple-A Worcester (International)
Age: 24

Why He’s Here: .591/.625/1.500 (13-for-22), 7 R, 2 2B, 0 3B, 6 HR, 16 RBIs, 1 BB, 4 SO, 0-for-0 SB

The Scoop: Last week Abreu’s power display was similar to a fireworks show, as he built up with each game, culminating in a three-home run game on Sunday. Over the course of the series with Buffalo, Abreu reached base two or more times in all six games while hitting a home run in four out of the six games. Acquired from the Astros alongside Enmanuel Valdez at the 2022 trade deadline, Abreu is hitting .268/.380/.521 with 20 home runs over 80 games with Triple-A Worcester this season. He has above-average on-base skills, solid bat-to-ball skills, average power and the ability to play all three outfield positions. Abreu is able to get the most out of his average raw power with excellent launch angles, as he consistently shows the ability to elevate the ball on his best-struck contact and to his pull side. (GP)

 

[JM3]

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxpayroll/status/1694812292603388272

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I know there is like a 1% chance that Duvall is back next year. But damn, he’s a right handed bat who can carry a team when he’s hot. Any sense of what type of deal he’ll get?

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

At least a good 4 year deal. Probably worth offering a QO to him though….. but it may suppress his market. I like him but don’t want him back

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

4 year deal? I can’t imagine his market is too much different than it was last year (although I’m often way off). Would something like 2/$25 work?

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Yeah, I don't see a 4 year deal at all

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I’m probably way wrong but I thought he didn’t get many offers because he spent far too much of ‘22 injured. His injury this season was more freakish rather than structural….

eh…. I was wrong. Not much difference in PA’s. And I thought he was only 31. I take the 4 year back.

maybe 2 w/option

 

[bosockboy]

Yeah he’ll be 35. 2/24 maybe. It’s either him or Turner though I think. Not room for both.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Yeah he’ll be 35. 2/24 maybe. It’s either him or Turner though I think. Not room for both.

Sell high on Duran and keep both.

Kidding. Mostly

 

[bosockboy]

Sell high on Duran and keep both.

Kidding. Mostly

I’m on the Duran sell high train….but to give the job to Rafaela. But keeping both if Duran helps net someone like Sandy Alcantara is a great result.

 

[Benj4ever]

I don't buy the sell high on Duran argument. He's a guy you want to be part of your core, not someone else's.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I don't buy the sell high on Duran argument. He's a guy you want to be part of your core, not someone else's.

He’s been so hot and then so cold, it’s hard to know what he actually is…. You’d hate to bet on him and this season from early May until three weeks ago is his outlier and he’s more like the ‘22 version.
I’d hold onto him. If Verdugo extends then you can think about trading Abreu or him.