This is the final installment in the series, & was what I was planning on putting in 1 thread until I got a bit carried away. Although I may do a 2024 budget post at some point, but not soon...
I would expect all these players to definitely be on the 40-man roster unless they are traded away for at least some value:
Startable Pitchers (7)
Brayan Bello
Chris Sale
Kutter Crawford
Tanner Houck
Garrett Whitlock
Nick Pivetta
Chris Murphy
Relief Pitchers (5)
Kenley Jansen
Chris Martin
John Schreiber
Josh Winckowski
Brennan Bernardino
Catchers (2)
Connor Wong
Reese McGuire
Corner Infielders (2)
Rafael Devers
Triston Casas
Middle Infielders (2)
Trevor Story
Luis Urías (or a different guy, but they definitely need 2 minimum)
Outfielders (5)
Masataka Yoshida
Alex Verdugo
Jarren Duran
Ceddanne Rafaela
Rob Refsnyder
That leaves 17 more spots on the 40-Man. Here are other guys already under control with at least some case to be on the 40.
Startable Pitchers (5)
*Bryan Mata - Already on the 40. Season lost to injury, but talented pitcher and might get a few games in before the end of the season.
*Brandon Walter - Already on the 40. Good ERA with Red Sox, even if it looks like a mirage. My personal preference would be to trade him for a flyer or 2 who don't need to be on the 40.
*Luis Perales - Rule 5 Eligible. SoxProspects #7 prospect. Has not been in A+ for long, but has the best stuff in the system & could easily be stashed in the bullpen by a bad team (& his stuff is so good he might even be ok in that role).
*Wikelman Gonzalez - Rule 5 Eligible. SoxProspects #8 prospect. Has been pitching pretty well in AA. Excellent stuff. Could easily be stashed in the bullpen by a bad team & stuff might play in that role.
*Shane Drohan - Rule 5 Eligible. SoxProspects #11 prospect. Struggled mightily since being promoted to AAA, but was great in AA & is now pitching differently for some reason. Not really sure what's going on, but is still highly regarded & may need protecting.
Other guys like Angel Bastardo & Grant Gambrell may be poached in Rule 5, but those are probably just risks you have to take.
Relief Pitchers (5)
*Zack Kelly - Was pretty good last year. Injured all year this year, but is throwing & may pitch a bit before the end of the season. Already on the 40.
*Nick Robertson - Struggled in his 1st inning with the Red Sox, but decently regarded prospect. Already on the 40.
*Ryan Fernandez - Rule 5 Eligible. SoxProspects #27 prospect. Struggled since promotion to AAA, but looked nasty his last time out (6 up, 6 down, 4 strikeouts) & he throws 99-100. If he gets it together could be a high leverage bullpen arm soon.
*Joely Rodriguez - They could pick up his $2.5m option. He was good in his last stint. I think they probably won't because he was cheaper last year & missed most of this year due to injury, but he's an option.
*Andrew ("A.J.") Politi - Was taken by the Orioles in the Rule 5 last year. Eligible again this year. Has been closing pretty ok for Worcester. Could be ready to be a Major League contributor. Rule 5 eligible again.
I'm fine letting guys who are already on the 40 like Garza/Ort/Llovera/Jacques walk or stick around but not be on the 40. Same with Wyatt Mills since he's probably missing all of next season. & if someone wants to ride the Rule 5 wave with Ryan Zeferjahn, who throws hard af, but walks more than a batter an inning, more power to them. Also ok letting Justin Hagenman go if someone wants him that bad.
Catcher (2)
*Ronaldo Hernandez - Out of options, which makes carrying him challenging unless you trade Wong or McGuire
*Stephen Scott - Rule 5 eligible. Has been raking. Will be 26 next season. 2-fold question regarding whether his defense is good enough at catcher & if he can hit well enough to play other positions.
Corner Infield (1)
*Bobby Dalbec - Already on the 40. Mashes in AAA. If they get rid of him, & don't re-sign Turner, they will definitely need some sort of additional depth piece here.
Middle Infield (4)
*Pablo Reyes - Currently on the 40 (& leading off tonight smh). They will definitely need at least 3 MI on the Major League Roster.
*Enmanuel Valdez - Currently on the 40. Has hit well in AAA. Hit ~ok with Red Sox. Defense is problematic, though.
*David Hamilton - Currently on the 40. Wouldn't really lose any sleep if he lost his 40-man spot. Fast af, but not sure if any of his other skills, including hitting & defense, play at a Major League level.
*Brainer Bonaci - Rule 5 eligible. SoxProspects #12 prospect. Hit really well at A+ this year & has been promoted to AA. Might be someone worth protecting.
Arroyo is kind of around still, but not for long. Fine taking our chances with someone trying to steal Eddinson Paulino.
Outfield (1)
*Wilyer Abreu - Already on the 40. Has been playing well in AAA.
I'm probably fine letting Allan Castro go if someone wants him. He's Rule 5 eligible & SoxProspects #20 prospect, but he only recently was promoted to A+ (& I think they overrate him a bit).
That makes 41, & there's no way we're carrying 4 catchers, so we have our 40 & can start the season!
Except the whole acquiring more players in free agency with the $80m+ we have to spend, or trades.
So one final summary of what I'd like to see:
Startables (12)
This seems like an appropriate #. Bring in 2 high end guys, trade Walter & 1 or 2 other guys.
Relievers (10)
This seems like an ok #, if guys like Houck/Whitlock are filtering to the bullpen, we should have an appropriate amount of quality, too.
Catchers (3)
I think they should keep Stephen Scott to ensure we don't see any more Aquaman/Caleb travesties next year, but idk.
Corner Infielders (3)
I think they should upgrade on Dalbec here & trade Dalbec.
Middle Infielders (6)
They could potentially use an upgrade or two in here, & I wouldn't be sad if The Blizzard (David Hamilton) found a new home.
Outfielders (6)
Feels like they could use a 7th guy on the 40 (perhaps instead of 1 of the middle relievers). Could be a spot for a free agent. Or I guess Castro if they love Castro.
I would expect all these players to definitely be on the 40-man roster unless they are traded away for at least some value:
Startable Pitchers (7)
Brayan Bello
Chris Sale
Kutter Crawford
Tanner Houck
Garrett Whitlock
Nick Pivetta
Chris Murphy
Relief Pitchers (5)
Kenley Jansen
Chris Martin
John Schreiber
Josh Winckowski
Brennan Bernardino
Catchers (2)
Connor Wong
Reese McGuire
Corner Infielders (2)
Rafael Devers
Triston Casas
Middle Infielders (2)
Trevor Story
Luis Urías (or a different guy, but they definitely need 2 minimum)
Outfielders (5)
Masataka Yoshida
Alex Verdugo
Jarren Duran
Ceddanne Rafaela
Rob Refsnyder
That leaves 17 more spots on the 40-Man. Here are other guys already under control with at least some case to be on the 40.
Startable Pitchers (5)
*Bryan Mata - Already on the 40. Season lost to injury, but talented pitcher and might get a few games in before the end of the season.
*Brandon Walter - Already on the 40. Good ERA with Red Sox, even if it looks like a mirage. My personal preference would be to trade him for a flyer or 2 who don't need to be on the 40.
*Luis Perales - Rule 5 Eligible. SoxProspects #7 prospect. Has not been in A+ for long, but has the best stuff in the system & could easily be stashed in the bullpen by a bad team (& his stuff is so good he might even be ok in that role).
*Wikelman Gonzalez - Rule 5 Eligible. SoxProspects #8 prospect. Has been pitching pretty well in AA. Excellent stuff. Could easily be stashed in the bullpen by a bad team & stuff might play in that role.
*Shane Drohan - Rule 5 Eligible. SoxProspects #11 prospect. Struggled mightily since being promoted to AAA, but was great in AA & is now pitching differently for some reason. Not really sure what's going on, but is still highly regarded & may need protecting.
Other guys like Angel Bastardo & Grant Gambrell may be poached in Rule 5, but those are probably just risks you have to take.
Relief Pitchers (5)
*Zack Kelly - Was pretty good last year. Injured all year this year, but is throwing & may pitch a bit before the end of the season. Already on the 40.
*Nick Robertson - Struggled in his 1st inning with the Red Sox, but decently regarded prospect. Already on the 40.
*Ryan Fernandez - Rule 5 Eligible. SoxProspects #27 prospect. Struggled since promotion to AAA, but looked nasty his last time out (6 up, 6 down, 4 strikeouts) & he throws 99-100. If he gets it together could be a high leverage bullpen arm soon.
*Joely Rodriguez - They could pick up his $2.5m option. He was good in his last stint. I think they probably won't because he was cheaper last year & missed most of this year due to injury, but he's an option.
*Andrew ("A.J.") Politi - Was taken by the Orioles in the Rule 5 last year. Eligible again this year. Has been closing pretty ok for Worcester. Could be ready to be a Major League contributor. Rule 5 eligible again.
I'm fine letting guys who are already on the 40 like Garza/Ort/Llovera/Jacques walk or stick around but not be on the 40. Same with Wyatt Mills since he's probably missing all of next season. & if someone wants to ride the Rule 5 wave with Ryan Zeferjahn, who throws hard af, but walks more than a batter an inning, more power to them. Also ok letting Justin Hagenman go if someone wants him that bad.
Catcher (2)
*Ronaldo Hernandez - Out of options, which makes carrying him challenging unless you trade Wong or McGuire
*Stephen Scott - Rule 5 eligible. Has been raking. Will be 26 next season. 2-fold question regarding whether his defense is good enough at catcher & if he can hit well enough to play other positions.
Corner Infield (1)
*Bobby Dalbec - Already on the 40. Mashes in AAA. If they get rid of him, & don't re-sign Turner, they will definitely need some sort of additional depth piece here.
Middle Infield (4)
*Pablo Reyes - Currently on the 40 (& leading off tonight smh). They will definitely need at least 3 MI on the Major League Roster.
*Enmanuel Valdez - Currently on the 40. Has hit well in AAA. Hit ~ok with Red Sox. Defense is problematic, though.
*David Hamilton - Currently on the 40. Wouldn't really lose any sleep if he lost his 40-man spot. Fast af, but not sure if any of his other skills, including hitting & defense, play at a Major League level.
*Brainer Bonaci - Rule 5 eligible. SoxProspects #12 prospect. Hit really well at A+ this year & has been promoted to AA. Might be someone worth protecting.
Arroyo is kind of around still, but not for long. Fine taking our chances with someone trying to steal Eddinson Paulino.
Outfield (1)
*Wilyer Abreu - Already on the 40. Has been playing well in AAA.
I'm probably fine letting Allan Castro go if someone wants him. He's Rule 5 eligible & SoxProspects #20 prospect, but he only recently was promoted to A+ (& I think they overrate him a bit).
That makes 41, & there's no way we're carrying 4 catchers, so we have our 40 & can start the season!
Except the whole acquiring more players in free agency with the $80m+ we have to spend, or trades.
So one final summary of what I'd like to see:
Startables (12)
This seems like an appropriate #. Bring in 2 high end guys, trade Walter & 1 or 2 other guys.
Relievers (10)
This seems like an ok #, if guys like Houck/Whitlock are filtering to the bullpen, we should have an appropriate amount of quality, too.
Catchers (3)
I think they should keep Stephen Scott to ensure we don't see any more Aquaman/Caleb travesties next year, but idk.
Corner Infielders (3)
I think they should upgrade on Dalbec here & trade Dalbec.
Middle Infielders (6)
They could potentially use an upgrade or two in here, & I wouldn't be sad if The Blizzard (David Hamilton) found a new home.
Outfielders (6)
Feels like they could use a 7th guy on the 40 (perhaps instead of 1 of the middle relievers). Could be a spot for a free agent. Or I guess Castro if they love Castro.