WIth the 325 + 50 + posting fee for Yam....that's hitting 400 mil .... I would agree that getting Montgomery and another arm such as Imanaga for less money than Yam would serve the Sox well. Or even just one, and save the money for a trade - extension.
It's my 49th birthday, so count me in!!!
My argument is that to an extent we fans control this, another crappy year and he may find the stadium partially filled, NESN viewership down and not a ton of interest in the streaming service. His people need to find a way to make this team successful on the field. I wont buy a ticket this year until August, I will only watch games when there is nothing else for me to do which in the Summer is rare. No more blind loyalty and wasting my time and treasure until the front office rewards my loyalty.
I'd add the Marlins to this list as well. If you're going to find a team that will trade MLB pitching for position prospects (which I think is going to be a really tough needle to thread), they'd have to be cheap (check); have tons of pitching (check) and a bad contract that you could offer to take back since you can't offer them pitching prospects in return (check - Avisail Garcia).
As a side note I have no confidence that the Sox will outbid the Yankees for Montgomery, they really sound as if they want him back.
I'm with you. I think the odds of the Yankees offering Montgomery big money are very high right now.
Rangers, Cardinals, Blue Jays seem likely / possible. Angels, Tigers, Reds, Padres, and Cubs are all teams that seem like they could get involved in the SP market, too.
With Boras representing Snell and Montgomery, we have certainly not seen the last of the big money deals, that's for sure.
Rangers appear to be restrained, haven't engaged with Montgomery at all.
Phillies are the wild card. Dave can always come in and ruin someone else’s bingo card.
I'm not sure that we can project a whole lot from the Yamamoto sweepstakes. On paper, he's somewhat of a unicorn, now it's just back to a regularly schedule FA market. I think it will be overspending only in the way that most 30 year old free agents are overpaid. I don't see anything "majorly" about this group, just because several teams wanted to go big on one pitcher.
Regardless of how the off-season ends, I'm personally not going to regret losing Lugo. He is another (more expensive and older) version of what we have in abundance. A bunch of guys that are safe(ish) bets to be good relief pitchers, with a little bit of starting success and absolutely nothing beyond lets say a good ~20 starts.
That would stink. How much better would one of this guys be over 2023 Paxton, basically a weaker offense than 2023 and same weak starting pitching with Sala a little older and a little more frail.
I’m not optimistic they’ll sign either one either but wouldn’t a contract like that fit nicely with the Anthony/Mayer/Teel timeline? If all goes well we can realistically expect them to start contributing to the big league club next year. Fast forward 6-7 years when they’re up for extensions, the Snell/Montgomery contracts will be off the books.
Edit - basically deleted the post because I was responding to Dylan Cease, whom would be an excellent addition (though highly unlikely because I don't think the Sox have the prospects to acquire him) and not Lucas Giolito.
I think it works in that perspective, but the theoretical Anthony/Mayer/Teel peak years won’t really align with the peak years of any of the remaining FA pitchers, most likely. Of course, that’s the way it is with FA pitchers. If you wait another year, it’s more of the same with next year’s class.
Theoretically available but not in reality, he can opt out but it's also in his contract that if NY adds a year at 1/36, he is back under contract. He has 5/180 on his deal now and will have 5/180 on his deal with NY going into 2025, Boras even addressed this at the winter meetings.
How were they supposed to have done that? We don't really know but I get the impression all the others wanted to draft off Yamamoto's contract. For all we know they made an offer three weeks ago and were told to wait. Only now is it go time, regardless of what anxious Sox fans (myself included) want to happen.
Those three might get cups of coffee in September or potentially earlier if they absolutely rake. A more likely optimistic projection is that they’re full-time starters as rookies in 2025. Maybe if all goes well they each start to hit MLB pitching at a high level as sophomores with a year under their belts in 2026. By which time, Snell and Monty will be 33 or 34?
Yes, sorry when I wrote “next year” I was referring to 2025. I have no idea why I wrote it that way. But my overall point remains, signing Snell/Monty isn’t misaligned with the arrival of those prospects.
Yes, Red Sox 2023 starting ace Corey Kluber should be infamous, almost legendarily so. Hard not to improve upon him. I think we all help Bello develops into something special and we can hope for improvement from at least one of the Houck, Crawford, Pivetta triumverate. Not sure if we get to 80 wins though in 2024 as things look, especially if we can't get Montgomery and another very good starter. Also need to improve both the defense and the hitting. Hard to see the Sox competing for the division now especially if the Yanks wind up with Montgomery which I believe is the mos tlikely scenario.
I've a feeling that everyone is going to be an overpay at this point. The Dodgers have set the market.
I really think he is. I think he'd be a rotation anchor and make everyone better. He's not going to put up Pedro numbers but is that what we need?
We really really don't know that. The Yamamoto one gets all the attention because nobody else besides Nola staying home would sign until YY did. The Sox tried but it wasn't an option, but meanwhile the rest of the market was full stop. The Mariner thing is just a couple rumors so far. [And note, they just bought out their cable channel and are really strapped for cash -- so should we call about Castillo after the new year instead?] The full throttle comment, which everyone is in a hurry to get super mad about, was them saying that the past couple years they had to build their base of talent and wait out some expiring contracts, but now that's no longer the case. I don't think it's untrue at all. I just think people want performative spending at the earliest possible moment, which is an insane way to build a deep, dangerous club.
If he can reliably put up 175+ innings at a sub-4 ERA for the next 3-4 years, I agree with you. They don't need Pedro numbers from him (or anyone) to justify paying market rate. Especially if they also get great production for cheaper from someone else (say Bello or a trade target) in the meantime. Though Montgomery is the type of guy I might try the bigger money for shorter years gambit on. If it's going to take something like $175M to get him signed, see if he'd do it for five years instead of 7-8. I'm fine with 31-32 year old Montgomery. It's 37-38 year old Montgomery that is unappealing.
Because we know what he's looking for.
Probably not, SoSH's favorite contract extension comes off the books after this season, so that should free up some dollars.
If the total dollars are the same, why wouldn’t you opt for the longer contract to spread the AAV for competitive balance tax purposes.
Hm, maybe. Boras' signature is stalling, but I guess we will get the real story in a month or two.
And he was great for Texas (3.27 FIP in his 11 starts down the stretch) and helped them win a title, albeit with his only meh/poor start in the WS.
Right I think the pendulum has swung too far and some posters are underrating Snell and Montgomery. Over the past 2 years for pitchers that have thrown more than 300 innings, Snell ranks 8th and Montgomery 20th in FIP. Expand that to 200 IP, and it’s 13th for Snell and 33rd for Montgomery. These are really good starters that would significantly upgrade the Sox rotation.
So you're going to give him 6-7 yrs @ 25-28m per because he pitched well down the stretch in his walk year? I'll give you that he has been good the last two years for St. Louis, who always seem to get the best out of their pitching, and then for the Rangers in their run to the WS. But i watched him pitch plenty for the Yankees in the 6 years prior and he was......very average. and for some reason those well above average offensive teams seemed to never score many runs for him. He made 30 starts for them once. Lots of seasons of ERA a tad under 4 and WHIP in the 1.25 range. They traded him for Harrison Bader when they were in a WC race. I like him fine as a pitcher, but i think the contract numbers being thrown around are ludicrous.
You honestly think that's what I am saying? FFS. Obviously it has to do with his development, which is a thing that pitchers do over the life of their major league career. If you are only interested in guys who were great the second they reached the majors, then you are crossing off almost every starting pitcher. The Yankees were stupid to make that trade, so I don't know why that is a factor in judging Montgomery. As for the numbers, this is entirely where things are going. This is why he didn't sign earlier. The market has shifted.
I’d rather them take a shot at Imanaga than commit to a long deal with Montgomery, which I don’t think they will.
