Durran has elite speed and above average power. That's his upside. As shown last year, he clearly has other things to work on. I'm not advocating for him to be on the MLB roster at this point. I am advocating for not giving up him based his numbers from 9 games in AAA. He probably won't fulfill his potential, but you could say that with most minor leaguers. The Rays roster is filled with guys who didn't blossom until their mid 20s.
really?
The team Bloom took over featured three potential hall-of-famers all under the age of 26. The lineup that Bloom put on the field yesterday featured only three players total who've compiled more than 3 bWAR for their entire careers. This team is much further away from championship contention than it was in 2019. It's not even close.
So the Sox get swept and we just throw up our hands, and say, what can you do, they are undefeated? Buzzsaw!! I think that the Sox should take some responsibility for being eight games back thirteen games in. I can certainly see a team that hasn’t actually played the Rays in nearly one-third of their games making a case that being that far back isn’t their fault, but don’t see it for the Sox. Ymmv.
Not ignoring anything. The Rays are undefeated. That's reality regardless of who they've played. They're the reason that last place in the AL East is nearly twice as far back as last place in any other division. If we're going to get worked up of the Sox being 8 whole games out after 13 games, let's look at the whole picture.
Touché.
Sorry, I had to investigate this a bit, Betts and Bogaerts both turned 27 a few weeks before Bloom was hired in 2019 (I did not realize they were born the same week in Oct 1992).
Fair enough. I probably read somewhere that they were all 26-and-under not the World Series team and confused that with Bloom taking over. I'm going to go ahead and say that Mookie and X being a few weeks older than I thought doesn't materially change the point, though.
WHo cares? They are 2.5 out of the wild card even with all the shit they are dealing with.
Do you think the Red Sox, as presently constructed, are close to the Rays or any other contender? That’s the point.
You are talking about the team's makeup this week. I think they'll be pretty good when they have all their guys but need to tread water for another month or so. It's April 14.
Eh. I'm not sure the Yankees qualify as a "veteran team he can stay out of the way of". The Yankees are depending on a lot of young players to be successful this year.
I don't know if you have a profound lack of imagination or just can't pick up context.
Of course I'm talking about the Red Sox' makeup this week? I don't have a crystal ball, I have no clue what they're going to be like in a month or three. And neither do you.
Think you are right. Yankees batters are a bit older than Sox, but pitchers are much younger. Sox have the second oldest staff on the league thus far (only Mets are older). This is the oldest Sox team Cora has managed. Tampa, Cleveland, Baltimore look to be youngest teams in the AL.
The only reason it is an indictment is that they had a 4 game sweep at the hands of the Rays. Getting swept in 4 is pretty freaking hard to do in baseball. I wonder what the stats are on that over the last 5-10 years.
We keep waiting for them to “have all their guys” when it’s becoming increasingly likely based on who they’ve signed and some bad luck they never, ever will.
You asked me if I like how they're constructed, and I answered based on the entire 40-man, not the guys currently available, which unfortunately is a pretty huge delta. If you don't share my opinion, good for you. If you think two weeks is enough time to judge anything in baseball, then we will probably disagree on a lot more things.
Playoff sweeps happen all the time and those are two good teams facing off. Teams in general may be streakier than pure odds would indicate.
Agreed on both accounts. Like I said the 14.56% is more than double the odds based on an overall 50% chance to win a single game, so streakiness is definitely a "thing" in terms of how a team is playing overall (and through only 4 Sox series so far this year, we've seen 3 sweeps - 1 for, 2 against).
No, I mean Schwarber. I don't think they were ever in on re-signing Benintendi.
Wouldn't it just be a 25% winning team?
Nice. I know what you meant, but it still made me laugh
You had said "The 14.56% chance basically equates to a ~62% chance of winning a single game, which is basically a 100 win team."
No what I was saying was14.56% series sweep is more than double the odds of a series sweep based on 50-50 odds in each game. It's closer to 62-38 odds in each game. Which means there is an inherent streakiness in baseball.
You must have skipped over Detroit. They're in the running for worst lineup I've seen in the 35+ years I've been watching baseball. With Austin Meadows on the IL again, they might have 2-3 players with a major league future, but no one who looks like they should currently be in an MLB lineup.
OK, I’ll bite (and I will admit that I’m not overly bullish on this year’s team. Or next year’s). Here’s a possible path:
There's a lot more projection involved in the rotation being good than just getting healthy. I know we sometimes like to believe Bello is a lock to be Sandy Alcantara in the near future, but it isn't a given that he'll be very good this year, and certainly nothing surrounding Sale, Paxton and Whitlock as a starter are givens. Same with the lineup, it's a lot of hoping on a lot of guys performing to top percentile outcomes/potential.
Hey are you actually in Tokyo? Do you know anything about Yoshinobu Yamamoto? MLBTR or whoever they follow is/are predicting he comes over next winter.
The fact that for most of Bloom's tenure is that when I look at the AL East standings, I usually need to look down to fourth or fifth place to find my favorite team. The fact that he gave away two immensely talented players for Verdugo, Wong and salary relief simply stinks. Those two players, along with Devers Should have been the core for 5 to 8 years. I get that the Sale deal id albatross, so what! Most of our competition carries three or four well paid superstars and play over the cap. How the Rays consistently find players who suddenly become great contributors for bargain prices is beyond me. Clearly, Chaim did not bring that ability with him when he came from Tampa to Boston. With the Sox ticket prices the fans deserve ownership that demands superstar players be kept or that the jettisoning of those players makes Boston a winner. It was one thing to trade Nomar in 2004 and win the World Series, this is far different. The current Sox team looks like it is in a life and death battle for fourth place or the Bloom era will be defined by last place finishes. That is what he would and should be remembered for. He and his executive team have made far too many poor choices when it comes to building the Red Sox into a consistent winner. Will his tenure be that of a consistent doormat instead. Plenty of time to fix the team this year but can he do that. Do we have the pieces in place to pry away the talent from small market teams to allwo us to fight for athe penant instead of fighting to stay out of the basement.
Aside from the Yankees (and even they have been more cap conscious than they used to), who among the Sox' competition carries three or four well paid superstars and play over the cap? Not the Rays. Not the Jays. Not the Astros. Not the Mariners. Not the Guardians.
This is an out-dated notion. Teams just don't "pry away" talent from small market teams anymore. Teams aren't desperate to give away top talent just to save a couple bucks. That approach is also not how good teams sustain success.
