I'll use the two posts below as the jumping off point for the 2023 NPB (and other regional leagues) thread. The 2022 thread is here. Probably 90% of last year's thread was about Murakami and Roki Sasaki. If anyone missed it at the time, here is a good piece on the two of them from last fall: https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2022/9/15/23354090/munetaka-murakami-roki-sasaki-npb-baseball-japan
So...who will be the next guys to go? I certainly agree with BSF that generally speaking the depth of the talent here is as good as it's ever been. Specific to a couple of players he mentioned though, I don't think Yamada or Okamoto are likely. Yamada is past his prime and even when he was posting four seasons of 30/30, his defense probably wasn't MLB caliber, and I don't think the pop was legit MLB power either. I love the guy and hope he can just put together another solid few seasons here. Okamoto could go - he's 4 years younger and has more power. He could well be a guy who wasn't really on MLB scouts' radars pre-WBC but may be now. I think he profiles more like a righty Tsutsugo though, and am not sure how he'd do. Kondoh is an amazing OBP guy - a career .307/.413 hitter - but I think is unlikely to move now, aged 29 and having just signed with the Hawks after 11 seasons for Nippon Ham. But the point is I agree, the talent here isn't all AAAA level -- there are many guys who are capable of successful MLB careers. I don't think it's controversial to say that NPB is the second-best professional league in the world, talent-wise.
The ones that seem likely in the next few years are:
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto, winner of the last two Sawamura Awards. As good as Roki has been, Yamamoto is the most polished pitcher in Japan right now. He'll be 25 in August and in six seasons has pitched to a 1.95 ERA/0.947 WHIP in 733 IP (including 190+ IP each of the last two years). His revamped delivery took a lot of people by surprise at camp ahead of the WBC last month, but it seems to be working for him so far. After his Orix Buffaloes teammate Masataka Yoshida went this year, the default assumption seems to be that YY will go for next year. MLB ETA 2024.
- Munetaka Murakami. Not sure what else I can say about my local Tokyo Yakult Swallows third baseman. He signed a 3/14-ish deal (JPY 600m per year) at the end of the '22 season which apparently included an agreement to be posted at the end of the contract, ie ahead of the 2026 MLB season. If he puts up #'s remotely like he did last season though, at some point those will start to feel wasted here. I'm going to go out on a limb and say he asks to go earlier: MLB ETA 2025.
- Roki Sasaki. By now everyone who bothers reading this thread will have seen a bit of Roki. He just turned 21 at the end of last year, so while people look at his age and say "2027 seems most likely," I think that similar to Murakami he has very little left to prove here. I just don't know what the point of staying here until 2027 would be for a pitcher of his caliber, and if any of Ohtani's Ohtaniness rubbed off on him during the WBC, I think he'll end up asking to post sooner. MLB ETA 2025. Maybe 2026 if Chiba Lotte are jerks about it.
I'll leave it there for now. I'm hopeful that the success of the WBC encourages more people to watch other leagues around the world when they can - whether it's NPB, KBO, ABL, Honkbal Hoofdklasse, or the Czech Baseball Extraliga, whatever. For NPB, Yakyu Cosmo (the author of the tweet @Granite Sox posted) is one of the best places to start if you want more yakyuu in your life. A recommended follow.
First, a quick note about when NPB guys are "eligible" to move to MLB: the answer is anytime at all. If NPB clubs agree to post them, they can go at anytime. The only catch is that if the player is under 25 and hasn't played in NPB for at least 6 years, then they are subject to MLB's international bonus pool restrictions and can only sign relatively small deals. So if the money is the driving factor, a given player will probably wait until he's 25. If testing themselves at the highest level is the primary motivator, any of these guys can push their NPB team to post them. Of course the team is not required to oblige, and I think there was some bad blood between Senga & the Softbank Hawks by the end, as Senga wanted to move a few years ago.
So...who will be the next guys to go? I certainly agree with BSF that generally speaking the depth of the talent here is as good as it's ever been. Specific to a couple of players he mentioned though, I don't think Yamada or Okamoto are likely. Yamada is past his prime and even when he was posting four seasons of 30/30, his defense probably wasn't MLB caliber, and I don't think the pop was legit MLB power either. I love the guy and hope he can just put together another solid few seasons here. Okamoto could go - he's 4 years younger and has more power. He could well be a guy who wasn't really on MLB scouts' radars pre-WBC but may be now. I think he profiles more like a righty Tsutsugo though, and am not sure how he'd do. Kondoh is an amazing OBP guy - a career .307/.413 hitter - but I think is unlikely to move now, aged 29 and having just signed with the Hawks after 11 seasons for Nippon Ham. But the point is I agree, the talent here isn't all AAAA level -- there are many guys who are capable of successful MLB careers. I don't think it's controversial to say that NPB is the second-best professional league in the world, talent-wise.
The ones that seem likely in the next few years are:
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto, winner of the last two Sawamura Awards. As good as Roki has been, Yamamoto is the most polished pitcher in Japan right now. He'll be 25 in August and in six seasons has pitched to a 1.95 ERA/0.947 WHIP in 733 IP (including 190+ IP each of the last two years). His revamped delivery took a lot of people by surprise at camp ahead of the WBC last month, but it seems to be working for him so far. After his Orix Buffaloes teammate Masataka Yoshida went this year, the default assumption seems to be that YY will go for next year. MLB ETA 2024.
- Munetaka Murakami. Not sure what else I can say about my local Tokyo Yakult Swallows third baseman. He signed a 3/14-ish deal (JPY 600m per year) at the end of the '22 season which apparently included an agreement to be posted at the end of the contract, ie ahead of the 2026 MLB season. If he puts up #'s remotely like he did last season though, at some point those will start to feel wasted here. I'm going to go out on a limb and say he asks to go earlier: MLB ETA 2025.
- Roki Sasaki. By now everyone who bothers reading this thread will have seen a bit of Roki. He just turned 21 at the end of last year, so while people look at his age and say "2027 seems most likely," I think that similar to Murakami he has very little left to prove here. I just don't know what the point of staying here until 2027 would be for a pitcher of his caliber, and if any of Ohtani's Ohtaniness rubbed off on him during the WBC, I think he'll end up asking to post sooner. MLB ETA 2025. Maybe 2026 if Chiba Lotte are jerks about it.
I'll leave it there for now. I'm hopeful that the success of the WBC encourages more people to watch other leagues around the world when they can - whether it's NPB, KBO, ABL, Honkbal Hoofdklasse, or the Czech Baseball Extraliga, whatever. For NPB, Yakyu Cosmo (the author of the tweet @Granite Sox posted) is one of the best places to start if you want more yakyuu in your life. A recommended follow.
