Trevor Story - Second Base or Short Stop???

jon abbey

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I'll see if I can sum up the facts, as I understand them.
Here's one fact you left out: Story didn't play a single inning at SS this whole season.

If the Colorado Rockies, who should know Story better than anyone, were willing to sign Story and keep him at short stop, then where is the issue? Who has the better facts, the Rockies or a random poster telling us about throwing velocity?
You are taking the unsourced word of a Denver columnist as gospel, after Story had already left. Also Colorado consistently makes inexplicable and ridiculous personnel decisions, they are almost certainly the worst run team of the 30.

Also it's not a 'random poster' telling you about throwing velocity, it's the actual numbers, and it's an article from Mike Petriello, who is great at this kind of thing (he was the one who started talking about the reverse Coors effect on the road, before anyone else was).

Anyway, none of this matters. Either Story can play SS or he can't, I'd bet that he can't but the important thing is that Bloom knows the answer.
 

chawson

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This particular debate is one I’m eager to see put to bed, especially since some people seem eager to claim the outcome of Story staying at 2B proof of some kind of professional malfeasance on Bloom’s part.

I think he stays at second base regardless of X, and it’s all totally fine because he’s excellent there.
 

dhappy42

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jon abbey

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FWIW, in 2021, the last year they both played SS, Bogaerts and Story had the exact same maximum velocity, 84.4 mph.
FWIW, Story’s arm strength issues began in mid-2021, as Petriello very explicitly addresses.

“But there’s also this, that Story has 195 tracked throws of at least 80 mph in his career -- he even topped 90 a few times early on -- but it’s happened only once since the 2021 All-Star break. It’s been well over a year since his last 80 mph+ throw, much of which he spent at shortstop; Arizona’s Ketel Marte, comparatively, has six such throws just this month.”
 

BravesField

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You are taking the unsourced word of a Denver columnist as gospel, after Story had already left. Also Colorado consistently makes inexplicable and ridiculous personnel decisions, they are almost certainly the worst run team of the 30.
Sorry you don't like it. The beat writer of a major league team wrote an article, and I forwarded it.
 

Yo La Tengo

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FWIW, Story’s arm strength issues began in mid-2021, as Petriello very explicitly addresses.

“But there’s also this, that Story has 195 tracked throws of at least 80 mph in his career -- he even topped 90 a few times early on -- but it’s happened only once since the 2021 All-Star break. It’s been well over a year since his last 80 mph+ throw, much of which he spent at shortstop; Arizona’s Ketel Marte, comparatively, has six such throws just this month.”

His arm strength issues started a year earlier, in 2020, when the average velocity on the top 10 percent of his throws (from SS) was 80.4 mph after an average of 85.4 the four previous years.

Not sure if that added info makes much of a difference (and I doubt it will change any opinions here), but this appears to be a multi-year trend rather than a blip caused by an injury.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I’m confused if, because of Xander’s options, Bloom can offer him a QO.
But worst case scenario if he can’t get either X back or a good SS option, is Story at SS and Arroyo at 2nd.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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His arm strength issues started a year earlier, in 2020, when the average velocity on the top 10 percent of his throws (from SS) was 80.4 mph after an average of 85.4 the four previous years.

Not sure if that added info makes much of a difference (and I doubt it will change any opinions here), but this appears to be a multi-year trend rather than a blip caused by an injury.
And because of that I think any attempt to play him at SS going forward will end in disaster.

He is a superior defensive second baseman. I am not sure why they'd be anxious to move him so he can become a sub par defensive shortstop. Keep him where he can contribute positively.
 

nvalvo

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And because of that I think any attempt to play him at SS going forward will end in disaster.

He is a superior defensive second baseman. I am not sure why they'd be anxious to move him so he can become a sub par defensive shortstop. Keep him where he can contribute positively.
Well, he was good to great at SS by the numbers before the injury. If he has enough on the throws, he’s quite likely better than Xander.
 

dhappy42

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Well, he was good to great at SS by the numbers before the injury. If he has enough on the throws, he’s quite likely better than Xander.
Story's 2021 injury was an elbow inflammation. Do elbow inflammations tend to cause permanent loss of throwing velocity?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I’m confused if, because of Xander’s options, Bloom can offer him a QO.
But worst case scenario if he can’t get either X back or a good SS option, is Story at SS and Arroyo at 2nd.
He can.

The sequence of events is Bogaerts decides on his opt-out (or not) then qualifying offers are made. So Bogaerts will absolutely get a QO if he opts-out, and he will assuredly decline it since it will be for less than he's opting out of.
 

dhappy42

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Am I wrong to think that if the Sox do not re-sign X to a long-term contract, then they will look for a short-term (2-3 years) solution for SS while they wait for Mayer to ripen?
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Am I wrong to think that if the Sox do not re-sign X to a long-term contract, then they will look for a short-term (2-3 years) solution for SS while they wait for Mayer to ripen?
That’d be trusting that Mayer turns into what all our best hopes are. I doubt Bloom counts on that.
Ideal scenario (someone else’s, not my idea) is X is resigned for 7 more and he takes over LF when Mayer comes up in 2.5 years.
 
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effectivelywild

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Story's 2021 injury was an elbow inflammation. Do elbow inflammations tend to cause permanent loss of throwing velocity?
It may not even be that his elbow inflammation caused the loss of throwing velocity. When trying to research Story's throwing arm, there were frequent mentions of the idea that moving him to second (where he wouldn't have to make as many high velocity throws) might also help protect his elbow from additional injury going forward.

At this point, I think that we have a decent amount of data that suggests that Story's arm strength has declined. It's not definitive---honestly, the only way we could have definitive proof is to just either have him put in some max throws for a radar gun and compare them or just move him over to SS and see what his velocity looks like from there---but there is certainly a lot of evidence that suggests his velocity has dropped in a way that can't be entirely explained by him moving to second base. There has been a decent amount of analysis that points to this. Does it mean his arm has deteriorated to the point where he absolutely cannot be a serviceable SS? Probably not. But I think for sure it's likely to be a liability and there may even be some concern that he could hurt something trying to get a little extra oomph. I'm not sure there is an absolute minimum arm strength you need to be a major league SS---I mean there probably is but to a certain extent most players could probably compensate with superior range/positioning. But I think his arm would almost definitely be a liability for him, defensively.

At the very least, I haven't seen any evidence to the contrary. I think that's where we are.
 

chawson

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Thad be trusting that Mayer turns into what all our best hopes are. I doubt BLM counts on that.
Ideal scenario (someone else’s, not my idea) is X is resigned for 7 more and he takes over LF when Mayer comes up in 2.5 years.
This sort of thing lines up well in the abstract with Verdugo hitting free agency roughly around Mayer's ETA.
 

Yo La Tengo

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And because of that I think any attempt to play him at SS going forward will end in disaster.

He is a superior defensive second baseman. I am not sure why they'd be anxious to move him so he can become a sub par defensive shortstop. Keep him where he can contribute positively.
I agree. Worth noting that Story missed time in 2018 with an elbow problem that was bothersome enough that by 2021, it was reported that he had altered his throwing motion to protect his elbow (and likely leading to additional loss of velocity):

"Story adjusted his throwing motion, utilizing less of his snappy, sidearm release, and instead making an effort to transfer the ball from glove to hand more quickly, and to step toward first and engage his shoulder more to get enough on his throws."

EDIT: There was reporting in 2018 that Story was working on changing his throwing mechanics due to his concerns about his elbow. All of which is to say that this is not a new issue or a single, discreet injury.
https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/09/25/trevor-story-returns-rockies-lineup-elbow-injury

After a hectic introduction to Boston this year, I think a normal offseason could help him thrive next year.
 
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