Here's a bit of irony for you. I just tuned into NESN and what do you suppose is airing? The Xander Bogaerts edition of "My Story"
Trevor Story has signed with the Boston Red Sox
- Thread starter mikeford
- Start date
Anybody besides me feel like there’s some Pedroia mojo back in the infield? Right down to the “ain’t no thing” stoicism after a breathtaking play?
Christian Arroyo is a more recent and higher pick. Story's 6 years in the majors is the more relevant data-set.
Maximum no. Average yes, since Coors reduces breaking stuff so going to be missing the ball a lot more on the road. And probably doesn't average out to real figure (e.g. if his EV rises 5 MPH at Coors because he consistently makes good contact it might drop 10 MPH on the road when the pitches break more)
Yep. If we reset the year to 2019 (but still with the rolling 3-year) then Coors had the same HR effect as Nationals Park and Minute Maid
You were kind not to include links from our own offseason thread.
One more thing that stands out from his FG:
| Pull% | Cent% | Oppo% |
| 39.1% | 34.6% | 26.3% |
| 37.2% | 35.5% | 27.3% |
First row is career, second row is 2021. He'll do damage to left field, but he's not afraid to hit it where it's pitched.
I like the signing a lot.
One reason is that it cements Kíkè as the CF, with no having to move him to the infield if/when Arroyo gets hurt.
I wonder if Arroyo's future will be as a Brock Holt kind of swiss army knife, and he might actually be the RH bat who platoons with JBJ. Is he better than Tommy Pham? Maybe.
Finally, I wonder if this signing signals the end of the Jarren Duran experience. Duran really doesn't have a place on the roster now, as he's a bad-fielding version of JBJ (and I don't believe he has much more offense.) Maybe he can be traded for a SP to kill some of Sale's innings?
One reason is that it cements Kíkè as the CF, with no having to move him to the infield if/when Arroyo gets hurt.
I wonder if Arroyo's future will be as a Brock Holt kind of swiss army knife, and he might actually be the RH bat who platoons with JBJ. Is he better than Tommy Pham? Maybe.
Finally, I wonder if this signing signals the end of the Jarren Duran experience. Duran really doesn't have a place on the roster now, as he's a bad-fielding version of JBJ (and I don't believe he has much more offense.) Maybe he can be traded for a SP to kill some of Sale's innings?
Yeah just talking pedigree. Clearly Arroyo has never hit with any power in either minors or majors.
Interesting lineup options at the top now
Hernandez
Story
Devers
X
JD
Hernandez
X
Devers
JD
Story
Story
Hernandez
Devers
X
JD
Hernandez
Story
Devers
X
JD
Hernandez
X
Devers
JD
Story
Story
Hernandez
Devers
X
JD
Totally, and I believe someone already posted that statcast (which uses those in conjunction with park effects) suggested that he would have hit 42 and 38 HRs in 2019 and 2021, respectively, had he been playing on the Red Sox those years.
Only if we want to put our best defensive align on the field irrespective of players’ egos…
Still #5 for HRs and the big outfield and affect on breaking pitches continues makes it #1 overall for park factor https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors
Option 1 looks ideal to me. Cora seems to like to switch it up so we’ll probably see all 3 at some point.
Count me among those who was beginning to think Bloom wouldn't ever commit major dollars to a free agent. His patience worked out to a nicely flexible deal that gives the Sox options depending on what Bogaerts does and how Mayer develops.
And not to be womp-womp, I would say this about any expensive investment at second base, but memories of Pedroia's knee, and going back further, Wil Cordero's broken leg are going to have me holding my breath on close plays around the bag, especially with a player changing positions.
And not to be womp-womp, I would say this about any expensive investment at second base, but memories of Pedroia's knee, and going back further, Wil Cordero's broken leg are going to have me holding my breath on close plays around the bag, especially with a player changing positions.
Not quite. Those would be his HR totals if all his games had been played in Fenway, not just the home games. This is one of the reasons why simply overlaying spray charts on to Fenway (or any park) is a bit deceiving. And that's before getting into the differences of how balls carry at Coors vs sea level.
Story should hit well at Fenway and the rest of the AL East parks. I don't know that he's got 40 HR potential though.
Indulging players’ egos and selfishness is what brought the Red Sox September starting pitcher Brad Peacock, so why mess with such a good thing?
I will say this about the naysayers - everyone screaming that the Sox "needed to do something", and then are happy about the Story signing, will likely be the first to criticize Boston for signing Story if he doesn't do well, and will cite the "Coors effect" and say they knew he wouldn't be good here so what was Bloom thinking wasting all that money.
Luckily, he is only moving from the most run-friendly environment to the ...second most run-friendly environment! Especially as a pull hitter, the monster is much more likely to turn HRs into doubles than outs. Also worth noting, Fenway has less foul territory than Coors, so some of his foul outs will become second chances.
I'm trying to remember what I thought about Jeter not moving for ARod and if I have to retcon that opinion.
Mid 30s....a return back to the range of a .275-.285 batting average ...20 steals, and great D?
And X insurance?
I'll take it in a heartbeat.
If Story has continued arm issues then sure. If not, and if Bogaerts stays beyond this year, it sounds a lot like the Jeter situation that we all criticized for years.
I agree - I don't think this necessarily means that Xander will be leaving. Although I certainly expect him to exercise the opt-out to get a bigger and longer contract, I think that Bloom (and Henry) will make a serious attempt to extend him, either before or after the opt-out, and leave him at SS until Mayer is ready. He's the face of the franchise, which has some value to the Red Sox brand, and needless to say he's solid, consistent and has generally been pretty healthy, so there's not a ton of risk. And he's a great teammate and good influence on Raffy, and might have a positive impact on our ability to extend Raffy as well.
I think there's enough money to pay Xander, Raffy and Story, especially with the kids coming up to fill other spots. )They'll keep Yorke and Mayer)
Coincidentally, NESN is playing My Story episodes on Xander and Raffy right now. (Nicest also sad to see Jerry doing the interviews - I'm really go to miss him.)
I suspect this is the FO also reading some tea leaves and knowing X will be gone after ‘22- either JUST as a SS or just in general.
Story to SS for 3 more seasons works for Mayer’s more realistic time line. There’ll be another hole at 2B after ‘22 but that seems easier to plug until Yorke
Story to SS for 3 more seasons works for Mayer’s more realistic time line. There’ll be another hole at 2B after ‘22 but that seems easier to plug until Yorke
So, which narrative will be glommed onto first?
1. Story was a product of the Coors Effect and a dumb signing
2. X is selfish for not wanting to move off shortstop
3. Story's contract is going to keep us from signing X
4. All of the above
1. Story was a product of the Coors Effect and a dumb signing
2. X is selfish for not wanting to move off shortstop
3. Story's contract is going to keep us from signing X
4. All of the above
You forgot:
"Story gets injured and we should have known exactly what would happen ahead of time."
and,
"We could have signed Correra to a short term deal instead - if only we had tried harder."
I'm already seeing talk about Bogaerts leaving being inevitable, which is in line with but not quite the same as #3. So that's my guess.
5. The fact that he was "still" available means no one else wanted him. Sox obviously got damaged goods/Chaim got lucky damage wasn't as severe as many thought it was.
Count me as stunned that Bloom made a deal for a baseball player that seems to be really great value relative to the rest of the free agent market, not very dissimilar from the trade of Schwarber at the trade market last year, because I had been groomed by the large majority of SoSHers and Boston fans the last few months to understand that he was cheap, was treating the Boston payroll like Tampa’s, and was punting on 2022.
Shocked, I say.
Shocked, I say.
In this case I think it’s better to say “impatient.” Dumb would be believing that the Sox were fine as constituted before this signing, or unaware of how the competition has been improving…
Assuming a flat contract (might not be of course) and breaking it up….
4/92 for age 29-32 is a fantastic deal with good likelihood of surplus value (knock on wood).
For that privilege, you risk a max loss 2/46 for age 33-34 seasons should thing turn massively ugly and his career is done.
Also get the option of locking in 33-35 seasons at 3/66 if that turns out to be a good idea after year 4.
Like the structure and the risk here. Let’s hope it pans out.
4/92 for age 29-32 is a fantastic deal with good likelihood of surplus value (knock on wood).
For that privilege, you risk a max loss 2/46 for age 33-34 seasons should thing turn massively ugly and his career is done.
Also get the option of locking in 33-35 seasons at 3/66 if that turns out to be a good idea after year 4.
Like the structure and the risk here. Let’s hope it pans out.
I don't believe he's committed to anything explicitly. It's still just reporters and pundits reading the tea leaves and making assumptions at this point.
My comment was not about winning the auction. It was the less than anticipated cost. As I wrote above, I hope that the lower than expected contract is due to the sequence of other signings not issues with his elbow.
As for the comparison with Semien's deal, Story is two years younger, is a better defender, and has much better career offensive stats. I would imagine if Story, Semien, Seager, Correa, and Baez were assigned contracts based on anticipated performance moving forward, all of the numbers would look quite different.
He’s said he plans to opt out, and he’s open to an extension with the Sox. So yes, but the emphasis hasn’t been on trying free agency (as a euphemism for wanting to leave town) from what I’ve seen reported.
Given the mutual admiration between Xander and Story, the signing could smooth a transition from SS to 2B. One guy gracefully moves off position for the incumbent one season, and later the other returns the favor with a new contract. Call it saving face, solidarity, collegiality, whatever, but it could work out pretty well for keeping X in town.
Every fanbase is dumb. Some fanbases are more entitled than others, and that's the team's damned fault for spending a lot of money and winning a lot of games.
Especially if the Sox at least meet him partway in terms of "paying him like a shortstop."
So a contract lower than expected means a team overpaid and a contract higher than expected would also mean team overpaid?
Both Marcelo and Yorke are MLB ready and they have other holes to fill (likely OF or SP, but it's 4 years away so hard to tell) would be the only scenario I can envision.
Nice to know Xander helped recruit Story. Sentimental part of me wants to think that somehow makes it more likely X will want to stay. Casas-Story-Bogaerts-Devers is a nice little infield.