Trevor Story has signed with the Boston Red Sox

[YTF]

Infield is looking like one of the best in baseball with Casas possibly arriving in a few months as well. Best part is not having to wait 2-3 months to watch Story.

Offensively speaking, yes.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I really hope that’s right. As already mentioned, I’m assuming the medical on Story is positive, and the club is confident he can play SS, and strictly speculative, it seems to me like X wants to hit the market looking for elite SS money. I’m hoping hard there is way to extend him too, but bracing myself for this being his last year with the Sox.

I'm wondering how much of a market there might be next winter. We've now seen two elite SS sign less than elite deals (Correa's AAV is elite but it's a short term thing) in a winter where there was a flood of top SS out there. Next winter there will be another group of "elite" SS on the market (Correa again, Turner, Anderson) and I don't see too many more spots opening up in the meantime. Obviously anything can happen, but I have to think a deal could be had to keep him around.

Then again, with Boras involved, who knows?

 

[joe dokes]

I am not sure an 8 year old article that just averages all the guys who have played in Colorado and left is particularly impressive "research" that I need to be up on.

Players benefit from Coors, but they can also adjust after leaving, different players are affected differently and the park isn't the only good thing about playing at home. We knew this.

Home/road splits are not always predictive and he may fit Fenway well but I think there is some reason to temper expectations, because Story's are pretty significant. That said, Fenway is a hitters' park and he gets value from his defense as well, it's a huge position of need, and he won't be bad offensively so this is a pretty solid signing.

And as others have pointed out, Rockies play 25 or so games at SF, SD, and LA, sort of reverse-Coorses.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

I was arguing that the Sox should sign Baez for all the reasons already stated. Story is a better player and this deal, same years/dollars as Baez w/ a better opt out option for the team, is much better than I expected. I can only hope that the lack of a market for Story was due to the sequence of other signings not issues with his elbow.

So, despite stating earlier that I didn't want anything more than a 4 year deal to Story, I am psyched to see what this infield is going to look like this year.

 

[Toe Nash]

And as others have pointed out, Rockies play 25 or so games at SF, SD, and LA, sort of reverse-Coorses.

But also Arizona.

Anyway there are things that adjust for this and he's very good in those, especially for a 2b so he'll be fine, like I said. Just maybe not a .900+ OPS.

 

[ngruz25]

Statcast's "other ballpark" figures aren't really accurate when it comes to guys who spend a lot of time playing in Coors because the dimensions there are huge and the air thin. It shows pretty much every Rockies hitter as being a monster if they weren't playing at Coors, but that really isn't the case.

Regardless, Story should be a perfect fit for Fenway.

 

[BaseballJones]

I was arguing that the Sox should sign Baez for all the reasons already stated. Story is a better player and this deal, same years/dollars as Baez w/ a better opt out option for the team, is much better than I expected. I can only hope that the lack of a market for Story was due to the sequence of other signings not issues with his elbow.

So, despite stating earlier that I didn't want anything more than a 4 year deal to Story, I am psyched to see what this infield is going to look like this year.

What do you mean, lack of a market, for Story? Lots of teams were in on him. The Sox just happened to be where he landed.

 

[chawson]

You know that this hasn't been true for a while, right? Thanks to the humidors, Coors has gone from far and away the #1 park factor for home runs (something like 40% above average back in the 2010s, to just being in the top 10, usually only about 10-20% above average, similar to the Bronx and other 'normal' hitters parks.

I’m seeing it differently here.

Coors’ 3-year rolling average for runs is 130, first in baseball (with 100 as the mean). For right-handed hitters it’s even higher, at 142.

Coors has still played as the most extreme offensive park — at 119. Home runs for RHB is at 120, behind the Dodgers’, Orioles’ and Reds’ parks. SF and Arizona suppress home runs from right-handed batters considerably, and San Diego does to some extent too.

 

[cornwalls@6]

I'm wondering how much of a market there might be next winter. We've now seen two elite SS sign less than elite deals (Correa's AAV is elite but it's a short term thing) in a winter where there was a flood of top SS out there. Next winter there will be another group of "elite" SS on the market (Correa again, Turner, Anderson) and I don't see too many more spots opening up in the meantime. Obviously anything can happen, but I have to think a deal could be had to keep him around.

Then again, with Boras involved, who knows?

Fair points, and as you and @YTF (up thread) are alluding to, maybe the elite SS market is softer than I think. And if he was amenable, maybe the Sox could come close to that money moving him to LF/periodic DH. At any rate, I’m very bullish on this acquisition for 2022. That’s going to be a monster offensive infield if Casas is ready soon, and/or If Dalbec still has some ceiling left.

 

[effectivelywild]

It concerns be that no other team thought it sensible to beat this contract. I would not have rolled the dice on Story liked this. I really hope it works out.

Well to be fair we don't know that. We don't know what other teams offered, just as we don't k ow what Boston's theoretical offers were on, say, Freeman or Suzuki. But I think your concern also leaves you in a situation where you will be dissatisfied with any contract signing. If the Sox sign a guy to a "good" contract and you worry that it means that there is something wrong with the player, then the only way to quell those concerns would be for the Sox to give out comically bad contracts to guys.

 

[pokey_reese]

I’m seeing it differently here.

Coors’ 3-year rolling average for runs is 130, first in baseball (with 100 as the mean). For right-handed hitters it’s even higher, at 142.

Coors has still played as the most extreme offensive park — at 119. Home runs for RHB is at 120, behind the Dodgers’, Orioles’ and Reds’ parks. SF and Arizona suppress home runs from right-handed batters considerably, and San Diego does to some extent too.

Runs overall is another matter, we were talking specifically about HRs because of the issues (that I'm not denying exist) of using a spray chart overlay. Using that link you just shared, you can see that the 3-year rolling average has Coors at #5 for HR park effect, basically the same as the Blue Jays:

 

[Yo La Tengo]

What do you mean, lack of a market, for Story? Lots of teams were in on him. The Sox just happened to be where he landed.

He signed a relatively team friendly deal and agreed to switch positions. I imagine he was anticipating something similar to Semien (7/175) to Seager (10/325) not Baez.

So, his market didn't materialize in the way that was expected. Put another way, last fall, did anyone anywhere predict Story signing as a 2B with that deal?

 

[bosockboy]

It’s incredible Colorado let him walk without moving him for prospects. And they paid the Cards 50 million to take Arenado. They might truly be the worst organization in pro sports.

 

[SemperFidelisSox]

Story is going to have to pick a new number. #27 is retired.

 

[OCD SS]

I am not sure an 8 year old article that just averages all the guys who have played in Colorado and left is particularly impressive "research" that I need to be up on.

Players benefit from Coors, but they can also adjust after leaving, different players are affected differently and the park isn't the only good thing about playing at home. We knew this.

Home/road splits are not always predictive and he may fit Fenway well but I think there is some reason to temper expectations, because Story's are pretty significant. That said, Fenway is a hitters' park and he gets value from his defense as well, it's a huge position of need, and he won't be bad offensively so this is a pretty solid signing.

There have also been new articles/ research showing the same thing, and I’m not digging them all up on my phone. My point in linking to the old article is that besides the baseline this provides, the effects of Coors are well documented. We’ve had the discussion around Walker & Helton’s HOF candidacies as well as every start player leaving (Holiday, Tull, etc) and we’re still seeing people look at road splits as an estimation of true talent hitting ability.

I don’t think we disagree on anything, but I’d like to see this intellectual shortcut die out pretty quickly.

 

[Ferm Sheller]

Story is going to have to pick a new number. #27 is retired.

And the "Chicago Fisk reverse" won't work because of Whitlock.

 

[Max Power]

Runs overall is another matter, we were talking specifically about HRs because of the issues (that I'm not denying exist) of using a spray chart overlay. Using that link you just shared, you can see that the 3-year rolling average has Coors at #5 for HR park effect, basically the same as the Blue Jays:

View attachment 50287

Dimensions of Rogers Centre:
L: 328'
C: 400'
R: 328'

Dimensions of Coors:
L: 347'
C: 415'
R: 350'

So in order to maintain the same HR park effect, the fences need to be 15-20 feet deeper in Denver.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but this is the biggest contract Bloom has signed by $130 million, besting Garret Richards.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

He signed a relatively team friendly deal and agreed to switch positions. I imagine he was anticipating something similar to Semien (7/175) to Seager (10/325) not Baez.

So, his market didn't materialize in the way that was expected. Put another way, last fall, did anyone anywhere predict Story signing as a 2B with that deal?

FWIW, MLB Trade Rumors predicted Story for 6/126 last November. So his deal isn't necessarily all that out of line with expectations, even accounting for the market yielding bigger than expected deals. The surprise though, is that he is changing positions. There were stories from before the lockout that he turned down the Mariners who wanted him for 2B.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but this is the biggest contract Bloom has signed by $130 million, besting Garret Richards.

I think Hernandez was the largest prior to this.

 

[BaseballJones]

He signed a relatively team friendly deal and agreed to switch positions. I imagine he was anticipating something similar to Semien (7/175) to Seager (10/325) not Baez.

So, his market didn't materialize in the way that was expected. Put another way, last fall, did anyone anywhere predict Story signing as a 2B with that deal?

Well that he didn't get what he may have been anticipating doesn't mean there wasn't a robust market for him.

 

[Max Power]

Seems like an oxymoronic thing for a guy named Max Power to say

Don't get me wrong...

But he's probably going to continue being a 30 homer guy in the AL East, not jump up to 40 by changing homes.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

FWIW, MLB Trade Rumors predicted Story for 6/126 last November. So his deal isn't necessarily all that out of line with expectations, even accounting for the market yielding bigger than expected deals. The surprise though, is that he is changing positions. There were stories from before the lockout that he turned down the Mariners who wanted him for 2B.

Fair enough. Once Seager and Semien's deals were finalized, I definitely anticipated bigger deals for Correa and Story. Those turned out to be outliers not the trend.

 

[Papo The Snow Tiger]

And the "Chicago Fisk reverse" won't work because of Whitlock.

I think I heard during Friday afternoon's game that Whtilock is switching to #22. While growing up Rick Porcello was his favorite player, and over the winter he asked Porcello's permission to take the number. Maybe Strory should ask for #54; the Sox will be his second MLB team and 2 X 27 = 54.

 

[JimD]

Great work by Bloom and the FO - love this deal.

And the "Chicago Fisk reverse" won't work because of Whitlock.

Story certainly has the money now to provide Whitlock a financial incentive to switch.

 

[radsoxfan]

I’m sure there is Xander insurance built in here, but as another very minor factor, any future shift ban will put a bigger premium on D at 2B.

Could have 2B covering the ground 2 people in theory “should” cover with optimal alignment against a non-trivial # of LHH.

 

[Dim13]

And the "Chicago Fisk reverse" won't work because of Whitlock.

Actually, Whitlock very recently changed his number to 22, so Story could have the reverse Fisk if he wanted.

Edit: Oops, sorry, Papo had it before me.

 

[E5 Yaz]

I think I heard during Friday afternoon's game that Whtilock is switching to #22. While growing up Rick Porcello was his favorite player, and over the winter he asked Porcello's permission to take the number.

Why would he think that the Red Sox would keep 22 on ice for Porcello?

 

[pokey_reese]

Dimensions of Rogers Centre:
L: 328'
C: 400'
R: 328'

Dimensions of Coors:
L: 347'
C: 415'
R: 350'

So in order to maintain the same HR park effect, the fences need to be 15-20 feet deeper in Denver.

As I recall, there is also some hypothesis about the impact of whether the Rogers Centre has their air conditioning turned on or not, would be interested to see how that impacts batted ball effects if someone ever tries to collect that data...

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

Great work by Bloom and the FO - love this deal.


Story certainly has the money now to provide Whitlock a financial incentive to switch.

Whitlock has a new number already, he's wearing 22 because apparently his favorite player is Rick Porcello.

 

[Philip Jeff Frye]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but this is the biggest contract Bloom has signed by $130 million, besting Garret Richards.

Barnes, no?

 

[chawson]

We’ve had the discussion around Walker & Helton’s HOF candidacies as well as every start player leaving (Holiday, Tull, etc) and we’re still seeing people look at road splits as an estimation of true talent hitting ability.

Ian Anderson would be a solid pickup.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

If they're paying him like an SS, I doubt he cares where he plays. Maybe he moves to SS after they pay X as an SS? (or X leaves but no one wants that)

I was thinking the same thing with Story sliding over after X leaves. Good insurance to have in that regard too.

 

[glennhoffmania]

Isn't Story a clearly better SS than Bogaerts? Assuming that's the case, don't they have to consider swapping them, if not in year one then definitely later if Bogaerts stays?

 

[Sin Duda]

One dimension the Sox may have played up is that he will play in the postseason more frequently and have a chance for a ring. Mr. Story has only played in 5 postseason games (.318 BA, .864 OPS) in his career. Houston too could have played the ring angle, and it would have been "home" (Irving, Texas native), so I'm not sure how we beat them, unless, as said upstream, the Astros are keeping SS open for a MiLBer.

 

[JM3]

He signed a relatively team friendly deal and agreed to switch positions. I imagine he was anticipating something similar to Semien (7/175) to Seager (10/325) not Baez.

So, his market didn't materialize in the way that was expected. Put another way, last fall, did anyone anywhere predict Story signing as a 2B with that deal?

It's pretty similar to Semien.

& he's locked up long term through his late prime, so no matter where he plays on this contract the next one probably won't be as a SS.

 

[chawson]

Interesting stuff in this new Athletic article on Story’s signing:

From Nick Groke, Rockies writer:

Here is the basic truth: A Rockies hitter is not as good as his home numbers say and he’s not nearly as bad as his road numbers might suggest. This is called the Coors Field Hangover. Seeing flat pitches that don’t move in Denver one day, then bend around an arc the next day in San Francisco, for instance, can really mess with a hitter’s head. Even then, ignoring his home numbers, Story’s basic career road numbers put him among the best shortstops in the game. By park-adjusted OPS, he ranks right around Francisco Lindor and Javier Baéz over the past three years.​

​

Story’s home-road splits will even out, like they did with LeMahieu and Arenado. And if the past is any indication, it’s fair to expect the newest Red Sox second baseman will become an even better hitter in Boston.”​

​

Also: “An executive opined last night that Boston had to get Story or it would be a mutiny for the Red Sox fanbase.”

 

[LogansDad]

I really like this signing, and I think Story will be a great player for us, but to completely ignore the road splits is in error, I think. Yes, a lot of the road splits come from the NLW, BUT he is actually really good in NLW parks, it's the rest of the league that really drags his road splits down.

(OBP/SLG/OPS)

Career at Coors: .372/.603/.975
Career in NLW: .324/.450/.775
Career in other: .298/.434/.732

Last season:
Coors: .371/.515/.886
NLW: .317/.397/.714 (but that is with HUGE numbers in Arizona)
Other: .267/.454/.721

Assuming he plays very good second base, I will absolutely take those numbers, but I don't expect him to be an .850+ OPS guy here. (He's a .286/.383/.669 guy career in ALE stadiums, over 63 PA's).

 

[Ale Xander]

Best 2B-SS-3B trio in baseball by far, no?

Offensively perhaps

 

[soxhop411]

The View: https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/1505575317838176258

In recent days, Bogaerts, Cora, other members of the Red Sox worked hard to recruit Trevor Story with phone calls. Story wanted to land someplace where he has a chance to win.

 

[LogansDad]

Isn't Story a clearly better SS than Bogaerts? Assuming that's the case, don't they have to consider swapping them, if not in year one then definitely later if Bogaerts stays?

This isn't OOTP baseball. Xander has said he has no interest in moving off of SS, and managing people is part of managing a baseball team. Unless Xander changes his mind, I do not envision this happening.

 

[johnlos]

Seems like a great contract from the Sox perspective, even with the opt-outs. I'm not really a huge Story guy; between his elbow issues and his home-away splits as a Rockie I think he comes with some risk, but you can't pass up that kind of value they are getting with this deal.

Two things I will be curious to see are that two of Story's strengths as a player are his defense and baserunning. Moving to second does blunt some value he brings (at least for the season) and I wonder if playing at Fenway and for a historically anti-running team, will impact his overall value.

The home/away splits are always misleading. The ball does fly a bit farther in Coors but the bigger reason Coors sucks for hitters is the thin air affects breaking stuff. Which makes it hard to hit on the road because everybody's pitches break more than you've become accustomed to for 81 of your games. I'd be curious how the analytics guys account for this but I assume averaging the home/road splits is a reasonable estimate. And the fact he's a 45th overall pick who mostly raked in the minors is a good sign.

 

[begranter]

Runs overall is another matter, we were talking specifically about HRs because of the issues (that I'm not denying exist) of using a spray chart overlay. Using that link you just shared, you can see that the 3-year rolling average has Coors at #5 for HR park effect, basically the same as the Blue Jays:

View attachment 50287

Haven't the Jays been playing in Buffalo the last 2 years?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

The View: https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/1505575317838176258

This might explain Bogaerts' comments on free agents the other day. If he was in on the recruiting, no wonder he was taking an interest in names coming off the board.

 

[radsoxfan]

Assuming he plays very good second base, I will absolutely take those numbers, but I don't expect him to be an .850+ OPS guy here. (He's a .286/.383/.669 guy career in ALE stadiums, over 63 PA's).

I think .900 home/.800 road OPS is definitely in play early in this contract. With above average D.

But I agree that it’s certainly no assurance he is ever a 0.850 OPS guy overall. Doesn’t have to be for this to be a solid contract though.

 

[LogansDad]

Interesting stuff in this new Athletic article on Story’s signing:

From Nick Groke, Rockies writer:

Here is the basic truth: A Rockies hitter is not as good as his home numbers say and he’s not nearly as bad as his road numbers might suggest. This is called the Coors Field Hangover. Seeing flat pitches that don’t move in Denver one day, then bend around an arc the next day in San Francisco, for instance, can really mess with a hitter’s head. Even then, ignoring his home numbers, Story’s basic career road numbers put him among the best shortstops in the game. By park-adjusted OPS, he ranks right around Francisco Lindor and Javier Baéz over the past three years.​

​

Story’s home-road splits will even out, like they did with LeMahieu and Arenado. And if the past is any indication, it’s fair to expect the newest Red Sox second baseman will become an even better hitter in Boston.”​

​

​

​

​

This is good stuff, and hopefully will put the numbers I posted into context. I think Story is going to be really good, I just don't think he will be .900 OPS good, but will be better than what the non-NLW numbers say.​

​

​

​

​

Also: “An executive opined last night that Boston had to get Story or it would be a mutiny for the Red Sox fanbase.”

Red Sox fanbase is dumb, news at 11.

 

[moondog80]

Isn't Story a clearly better SS than Bogaerts? Assuming that's the case, don't they have to consider swapping them, if not in year one then definitely later if Bogaerts stays?

In addition to dealing with the personalities involved, there are concerns about Story's arm, so a move to 2B might be for the best anyway.

 

[DisgruntledSoxFan77]

Damn good signing. Just glad he finally realized that the contract he wanted was out there if he agreed to slide over off short

 

[Pitt the Elder]

Runs overall is another matter, we were talking specifically about HRs because of the issues (that I'm not denying exist) of using a spray chart overlay. Using that link you just shared, you can see that the 3-year rolling average has Coors at #5 for HR park effect, basically the same as the Blue Jays:

View attachment 50287

Is there any reason not to place more focus on exit velocity and launch angle when trying to gauge how well Story will transition out of Coors? I have to think those two variables aren't impacted by higher altitude.

 

[snowmanny]

He signed a relatively team friendly deal and agreed to switch positions. I imagine he was anticipating something similar to Semien (7/175) to Seager (10/325) not Baez.

So, his market didn't materialize in the way that was expected. Put another way, last fall, did anyone anywhere predict Story signing as a 2B with that deal?

I suppose that anytime you win an auction for anything you have to consider the fact that you indeed paid more than anyone else was willing to pay. Kind of how they wrk.