SoxinSeattle said:Trade or no trade you have to think Seattle would be willing to overpay to bring Lester home. I think they should trade him but it decreases the odds of ever seeing him in a Sox uniform again.
To hear rival executives tell it, though, Zduriencik mostly has exasperated trade partners with his negotiating style while trying to guide the M’s to the postseason for the first time since 2001. Those executives say the Mariners frequently inquire on a number of players, only to shift direction when a deal appears within reach.
Aceves?Rudy Pemberton said:So who starts opening day next year, Buchholz? Steve Avery? Unbelievable.
I think you are reading too much into that. The first part of what you say is correct but the second part isn't quoted at all and reads to me as Pete spitballing the market. We have no idea if Lester thinks the market is 5/110(I'd bet he surely doesn't), 6/144(probably getting closer) or even more.KillerBs said:Byrdbrian, the Abraham tweet says the "Sox have been told what it will take to re-sign Lester", which the source says is in the 5/110 to 6/144 range. If you buy the source, the Sox turned that formal or informal offer down, decided to deal him because they wouldn't pay the market price, and now have much of its fan base clamoring for a deal.
How are they going to spend the money they save by not paying Lester one might ask? Well half of it looks like it is going to an oft-hobbled declining OFer, who has the added benefit of a history of hanging out with Rihanna.
According to multiple major league sources, it looks as though the Red Sox decision to trade Jon Lester will most likely be made close to the 4 p.m. July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, with the likelihood of a deal gaining momentum.
The sources paint the picture of multiple options being talked about throughout baseball, with Lester’s name being surfaced by a myriad of clubs.
As for the rumors circulating around Matt Kemp, an source confirms that the Red Sox’ are not looking to trade for the Dodgers outfielder at the moment.
One of the reasons Bankshot is pissed is because he thought that 5/110 was fair back in Dec/Jan. That PA throws it out now as within the range of what Lester is looking for now, is frankly surprising to me. That the FO thinks it (5/110) beyond their range or reasonableness is what is distressing.Byrdbrain said:I think you are reading too much into that. The first part of what you say is correct but the second part isn't quoted at all and reads to me as Pete spitballing the market. We have no idea if Lester thinks the market is 5/110(I'd bet he surely doesn't), 6/144(probably getting closer) or even more.
If it turns out they knew they could have gotten him for 5/110 I will be as pissed as Bankshot.
Corsi said:
bankshot1 said:One of the reasons Bankshot is pissed is because he thought that 5/110 was fair back in Dec/Jan. That PA throws it out now as within the range of what Lester is looking for now, is frankly surprising to me. That the FO thinks it (5/110) beyond their range or reasonableness is what is distressing.
I freely admit this may all be be part of an elaborate dance, by Henry and LL, who's steps are foreign to me, but I sense in the end they will stumble.
Darnell's Son approves this message.In my lifetime said:
Please don't refer to yourself in the third person, it is already crazy enough on the board this time of year without the thread reading like it was written by Gollum.
We don't even know if 5/110 would have gotten him signed. And frankly I doubt it's that low because the sox would have jumped on that offer. Or Lester's camp would have at least made some sort of counterbankshot1 said:One of the reasons Bankshot is pissed is because he thought that 5/110 was fair back in Dec/Jan. That PA throws it out now as within the range of what Lester is looking for now, is frankly surprising to me. That the FO thinks it (5/110) beyond their range or reasonableness is what is distressing.
I freely admit this may all be be part of an elaborate dance, by Henry and LL, who's steps are foreign to me, but I sense in the end they will stumble.
It's so lawyerly.jimbobim said:
As for the rumors circulating around Matt Kemp, an source confirms that the Red Sox are not looking to trade for the Dodgers outfielder at the moment.
"at the moment" is such a caveat. We shall see.
And the bolded part is what several people have told you we don't know.bankshot1 said:One of the reasons Bankshot is pissed is because he thought that 5/110 was fair back in Dec/Jan. That PA throws it out now as within the range of what Lester is looking for now, is frankly surprising to me. That the FO thinks it (5/110) beyond their range or reasonableness is what is distressing.
I freely admit this may all be be part of an elaborate dance, by Henry and LL, who's steps are foreign to me, but I sense in the end they will stumble.
It's meaningless crap. By definition the deadline creates a moment by moment atmosphere. You'll have guys working 36-48 hours straight -- precisely because things shift in moments. It's a reporter branding himself -- he's in the know! -- and not a news item.dcmissle said:It's so lawyerly.
Let's hope this is just the reporter being careful and precise.
My thought too. Also, no one is looking to "trade for" Kemp, he's the price of getting Seager or Pederson.dcmissle said:It's so lawyerly.
Let's hope this is just the reporter being careful and precise.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wmuy3BrGjVEIn my lifetime said:
Please don't refer to yourself in the third person, it is already crazy enough on the board this time of year without the thread reading like it was written by Gollum.
I've chosen to go with PA reporting as I assume he's got better sources than most of SoSH. If he has chosen to mislead me with a false # I will never forgive him.Byrdbrain said:And the bolded part is what several people have told you we don't know.
We know(per PAs source anyway) Lester's people told the Sox what he would sign for which is an the range of market value. PA then throws out some numbers that he thinks of as market value the low end of which is 5/110.
We have no clue if that is what Lester's people told the Sox, they may think market value is 7/175 or even higher.
Well in a sense. I'm willing to take on Kemp because the prospects that would come back with him can be used for a certain slugging outfielder in Miami.P'tucket said:My thought too. Also, no one is looking to "trade for" Kemp, he's the price of getting Seager or Pederson.
jimbobim said:
Pete Abraham @PeteAbe · 7m
Fixed the link: #RedSox have been told what it would take to sign Lester and are now looking to trade him: http://live.bostonglobe.com/Event/Red_Sox_2014_season_updates/122749416 …
figure big enough bit of news to warrant posting in two directly relevant threads
bankshot1 said:I've chosen to go with PA reporting as I assume he's got better sources than most of SoSH. If he has chosen to mislead me with a false # I will never forgive him.
DennyDoyle'sBoil said:Where does a leak like this come from? If it's from the Sox, it strikes me as profoundly stupid. As robust as the market might be for Lester, why would you ever want to go into a negotiation with everyone thinking you are hell bent on doing a deal. It seems to me that one bit of leverage the Sox have is the ability to say, "that's not enough, we'd rather keep him and try to reach a deal with him during our exclusive negotiating period." Telling the world you're not interested in him seems dumb.
If it's Lester's side, that's crappy for the same reason, and seems to me unlikely something his agent would want to do anyway.
I figured he was a lock for at least 6/150, with maybe the HT discount at 6/135. Today's 5/110 surprised me, but at this point i figure both sides are BSing, posturing and positioning themselves for some hoped for outcome.wade boggs chicken dinner said:
GIven that it's been reported that the Sox would do a 5/$110 deal for Lester, there has to be a "miscommunication" somewhere. Lester's market value is likely north of $150M. Signing for 5/$110 isn't a discount, it's charity.
Corsi said:
We’ll start with a 2015 win valuation of $6.5 million per WAR, and we’ll bump that up each year to reflect market inflation. Everything here is an estimate, but we’re just looking to find an estimate, so that’s okay. Based on my own little calculator, between 2015 – 2019, Kemp might be projected for a little over 8 WAR. He’d therefore be worth about $60 million, giving him a negative value of about $47 million. The easiest way to understand that: based on these numbers, it would make sense for the Dodgers to trade Matt Kemp for nothing, while eating $47 million. That’s pretty similar to Rosenthal’s tweet.
So let’s look at some somewhat recent research. Here’s Kevin Creagh. Here’s Michael Valancius. I’ll save you some time. The former would give Urias a surplus value around $20 million, and Seager and Pederson surplus values around $35 million. The latter would give Urias a surplus value around $40 million, and Seager and Pederson surplus values around $35 million. There’s agreement with the position players. Maybe, with Urias, you split the middle. Then they’re all in the same range — somewhere between $30 million – $40 million each.
A trade, presumably, wouldn’t actually work quite like that. A team that trades for Kemp probably likes Kemp quite a bit, so that team would project him higher. An AL team could move him to DH down the road, if he’s willing to do that. Also, teams would rather have prospects than money, in most cases, so you could foresee some overpaying for the surplus value of a Urias, Seager, or Pederson. The Dodgers, I’m sure, wouldn’t want to trade Kemp and a top prospect for nothing, and they could probably expect to get a little help back. Maybe that would be in the form of a prospect. Maybe that would be in the form of instant help. Maybe Kemp and a top prospect could make up the bulk of a package for a few months of Jon Lester. The Dodgers could always offer to eat a little more money, to make sure they were getting more than just future salary relief.
And maybe Lester gets it out to lay down markers in real time of what is happening. So later -- if he hits the FA jackpot -- there can be no FO argument along these lines: "see we never had a chance ... It was all about the money, always was. And we're not going to match that crazy offer"KillerBs said:Read the link..."major league sources". IOW, Levinson/Lester are talking to people who are talking. You can be sure the Sox didn't leak that.
As to why it would make sense for Levinson/Lester to get this out, even if indirectly thru a 3rd party, it only makes sense if in fact Lester very much wants to stay in Boston, which he clearly does. Since we were all wondering what Lester meant by "hometown discount," now we have ballpark sense of it. He doesn't care about the last 20-40-60m that he might get on the FA market, he wants to stay in Boston on something "approaching market value." Sox say NO.
Nick Cafardo @nickcafardo 1m
A couple of baseball executives think the Pirates may get into Jon Lester trade talks with Red Sox.
ArgentinaSOXfan said:Question: why would the Red Sox consider trading for Kemp who is injury prone and hasnt been at a level someone can expect AND (most importantly) is owed an average salary of 20M through the next 5 years? Wouldnt that money come close to getting Lester re-signed?
Not to mention Gregory Polanco, former #10 overall prospect by Baseball America, struggling with his first taste of the bigs but has put up a .945 OPS in AAA this season. If I'm the FO and the Dodgers are talking Seager or Pederson the Pirates would need to come back with a package built around Polanco to match. Josh Bell is nice but he's still a little ways off, Pederson is not and Seager could likely be the premier piece in a deal for Stanton.snowmanny said:The Pirates had five players in BA's Top 50:
21. Tyler Glasnow
24. Jameson Taillon
35. Josh Bell
37. Nick Kingham
43. Austin Meadows
I hope he's right but I remember a quote from Ortiz in the winter of 2004-5 "Pedro ain't goin' nowhere".MyDaughterLovesTomGordon said:Papi tells Maureen Mullen Lester is a "keeper":
“He’s in the top three in the league. You don’t shuffle on that. This is a guy that is very valuable to this ball club. And he’s young, very talented, won a couple of World Series. You can’t ask for no more than what he has done. He’s in his prime. What else?
“But the trading rumor about my left-hander, I think I don’t know where it come from. It might be coming from the front office or whatever, but when you are planning on trading a player like that, that caliber of player in today’s day, you must be getting half a team from some of the places. This is a really good player. And I still believe that at some point they’re going to get into an agreement and get to enjoy seeing Lester pitch for another eight, 10 years, whatever. This is a guy that you enjoy watching pitch. There’s no question about it.”
----
Have to wonder what the clubhouse will be like if Lester is dealt.
jimbobim said:I have a feeling this is going to be a long day of speculation with maybe the Miller deal sprinkled in.
The Brewers have one of the worst farm systems and I doubt they match up well.
One would think you could get a semi bidding war between the NL Central ( STL Pit MIL ) LA SEA and BAL.
I think Edes article today points to Kemp being a part of the Dodger deal if it happened but LA is of course going to have to include money and one of Seager/Pederson/Urias
Puffy said:
Jimmy Nelson is one bright spot, although I am not sure how many MLB-ready pitching prospects Cherington hopes to acquire.
DrewDawg said:The more teams in on Lester, the better the offers will be. Bring it on.
rembrat said:
He's still the 3rd most attractive LHP on the market and with the Sox reportedly asking for the Moon, it makes a deal unlikely.
Savin Hillbilly said:
Who are the other two? I thought Price wasn't on the market. Hamels and.....?
I agree. The Rays are pretty opportunistic. If they feel that this is the best time to make a heist, they'll make it.rembrat said:I don't buy that Price isn't on the market.
Pete Abraham @PeteAbe 2m
Meanwhile the list of teams calling on Lester is pretty much everybody in the playoff hunt. #RedSox will not consider the #Yankees.
http://www.csnne.com/boston-red-sox/more-and-more-teams-calling-red-sox-about-lesterSt. Louis, Seattle, Baltimore and the Los Angeles Dodgers are widely thought to be in on Lester, but industry sources say the Red Sox also have received interest from another handful of clubs, led by Milwaukee, Atlanta, Oakland and Toronto.
Of those, a source indicated, Toronto has been the most aggressive in its interest.