Trading Jon Lester (news and speculation thread)

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glennhoffmania

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Corsi said:
Seems worthy of being broken out at this point.
 
 
 
 You mean as opposed to the thread entitled "Should the Red Sox trade Lester?"
 

Corsi

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glennhoffmania said:
 You mean as opposed to the thread entitled "Should the Red Sox trade Lester?"
 
Yes, that thread is answering the question, "should the Red Sox trade Lester?," this one is more news-oriented.  I'll make that clearer in the title.
 

DJnVa

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From Heyman: http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24639355/dodgers-have-ammunition-and-outfielders-to-do-a-lester-deal
Boston has flirted with Kemp a couple times in the past, and it seems more open to the possibility of him than some of the other teams that have been in contact with LA (of the four that have spoken about Kemp, only the Rangers and Mariners have become public). However, some around baseball would still think Pederson, a power/speed combo who might be LA's best center fielder now, even if he's still in Triple-A Albuquerque, would be even more attractive due to his youth and contractual status.
 
"Pederson straight up (for Lester) ... who says no?" one rival GM asked rhetorically.
 
Eventually, that GM partly answered his own question, saying, "If I'm Boston, I'd take Pederson in a heartbeat."
 
Joc roaming CF at Fenway would be fun...
 
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=peders001joc
 

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RedOctober3829 said:
Not better than Jackie roaming CF.  Joc can go play a corner OF.
 
JBJ in CF and Joc in RF (whichis basically like a CF in Fenway) is awfully nice to think about
 

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MATT KEMP, OF, LOS ANGELES DODGERS, WAR: -1.1 Kemp’s descent has been even faster than Howard’s. In 2011, Kemp was a 26-year-old All-Star who finished second in Most Valuable Player voting, falling one home run short of a 40-40 season. In the three years since, he has combined for 37 home runs and 23 stolen bases. Injuries have largely robbed him of his game-changing speed. Now a liability in the field, Kemp, a former five-tool star who won two Gold Gloves, may be best as a designated hitter. He is owed $107 million after this season.
The above from the nyt.(http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/28/sports/baseball/evaluating-who8217s-on-the-block-as-a-trade-deadline-nears-.html?ref=sports )
Why do we want this guy, again, unless LAD pays his salary?
 

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ookami7m said:
 
JBJ in CF and Joc in RF (whichis basically like a CF in Fenway) is awfully nice to think about
If we get Joc Pederson I doubt he ever plays a game in a Red Sox uniform.
 

DJnVa

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SoxFanInPdx said:
How is Pederson's arm?
 
Haven't found too much, but I did find this: http://www.faketeams.com/2014/4/7/5588070/coming-soon-to-a-stadium-near-you-joc-pederson-of-los-angeles-dodgers
Defense: Pederson is considered to be an above-average defender in center field, and able to play the position in the major leagues. He could handle either corner position if needed as well, as his arm is considered strong enough to play in right field as well. Where he ends up in the outfield would be dependent upon who is on the roster when he is brought up.
 
 

Al Zarilla

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InsideTheParker said:
I agree. He has dropped off a cliff, although it's hard to tell how much of that can be attributed to injuries. He also apparently complains about things like which outfield position he gets to play. The Dodgers do have a logjam in the OF, but a guy who should be trying to re-establish himself as a premium player ought to keep his mouth shut, seems to me. 
 

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SouthernBoSox said:
If we get Joc Pederson I doubt he ever plays a game in a Red Sox uniform.
 
I doubt Stanton is going anywhere this week, so *if* we get Pederson for Lester, I'd assume you'd get some Pederson in a Sox uni for a few months at the minimum.
 

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Al Zarilla said:
I agree. He has dropped off a cliff, although it's hard to tell how much of that can be attributed to injuries. He also apparently complains about things like which outfield position he gets to play. The Dodgers do have a logjam in the OF, but a guy who should be trying to re-establish himself as a premium player ought to keep his mouth shut, seems to me. 
 
Kemp is complaining solely to get off a team that has too many Of's and is willfully pushing of making a move to the very last minute because they will be forced to eat a very substantial amount of his contract. 
 
It is so easy to list the negatives of Kemp. However, a paid for Kemp 2 years removed from injuries would be very nice bet in one of our corner OF spots especially compared to the available OF's ont the FA market next year. Of course I've just never been a fan of Nava. 
 

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jimbobim said:
 
It is so easy to list the negatives of Kemp. However, a paid for Kemp 2 years removed from injuries would be very nice bet in one of our corner OF spots especially compared to the available OF's ont the FA market next year. Of course I've just never been a fan of Nava. 
 
This is exactly what people were saying about Grady Sizemore in April.  Hopefully Ben learns from his mistakes. 
 

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67WasBest

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nattysez said:
 
This is exactly what people were saying about Grady Sizemore in April.  Hopefully Ben learns from his mistakes. 
Would that mistake be signing him....or trading him?
 

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czar

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moondog80 said:
 
 
How much of Kemp's WAR is tied to being miscast in CF?  B-ref has him this year as 1.4 oWAR and -2.6 dWAR.  His OPS+ is 118.  Obviously the Sox wouldn't take all of his deal, but there's a price point where he makes sense in LF.
 
It's almost all D.
 
The Sox could conceivably try to hide him in LF. He hasn't been great in either corner spot by advanced metrics, but he only has 370 innings in left this year and 100 innings in RF since the end of 2008. Neither are really big enough sample sizes to draw huge conclusions (whereas it's obvious he's a below-replacement level defensive CF).
 
Many teams would probably slot him in at DH if they acquired him, which is one of the reasons I'd only be interested in the 2013-2014 version of Kemp (no SB, ~.140ish ISO) at a heavily, heavily subsidized rate.
 

DJnVa

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67WasBest said:
 
Would that mistake be signing him....or trading him?
 
.319 .360 .404 with Phillies in 47 at bats
 
 
Yes, we definitely should base this on 47 AB.
 

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Comment From Sox  
Is Kemp subsidized down to 50 mill and Seager reasonable expectations for a Lester return ?


 
 







12:11



 

Dan Szymborski: 
A little much. Kemp subsidized down to 50 is essentially break-even, so that leaves Seager for 2 months of Lester. That's too much for the Dodgers.

 
 







12:12



 

Dan Szymborski: 
Yeah, maybe you rob them -- the last big Red Sox-Dodger trade is still pretty bad for the Dodgers -- but I'm not sure you want to go in with robbery being a reasonable expectation.



 
FWIW maybe you stick Doubie or WMB in there for Seager and make LA feel a bit better about themselves. 
 

TomRicardo

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nattysez said:
 
This is exactly what people were saying about Grady Sizemore in April.  Hopefully Ben learns from his mistakes. 
 
I fail to see how the Sizemore signing was a mistake.  It was a flyer that we held on to for a long time because Victorino was injured.  At worst we cost Hassan some time on the Red Sox bench?
 

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czar said:
 
It's almost all D.
 
The Sox could conceivably try to hide him in LF. He hasn't been great in either corner spot by advanced metrics, but he only has 370 innings in left this year and 100 innings in RF since the end of 2008. Neither are really big enough sample sizes to draw huge conclusions (whereas it's obvious he's a below-replacement level defensive CF).
 
Many teams would probably slot him in at DH if they acquired him, which is one of the reasons I'd only be interested in the 2013-2014 version of Kemp (no SB, ~.140ish ISO) at a heavily, heavily subsidized rate.
 
And then you have to worry about his continued bitching about where he plays.  He hated playing LF so he bitched to get moved to RF, but he still wants to play CF.  Can you imagine asking him to be a DH?  I don't think he'd even report to the team if they told him that.
 

ehaz

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I know we've seen a lot of speculation with the LAD... but who else has the prospects (and potential need) for Lester?  Pittsburgh could lineup nicely with Taillon, Bell, Glasnow, Hanson as possible targets.
 

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Savin Hillbilly said:
 
That's an interesting interpretation of "news and speculation thread."
 
So is discussion of Grady Sizemore
 
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RedOctober3829

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Not sure if this has been mentioned in here, but this is in McAdam's latest column.
 
On Saturday, after the Peavy deal, Ben Cherington and Seth Levinson, one of Lester's agents spoke over the phone. Given that there are no current negotiations ongoing, it's safe to assume the purpose of the call was to discuss a possible trade involving Lester and/or his willingness to return as a free agent afterward.  Lester told the media Friday night that he wouldn't be upset by a deal nor would it preclude his return for 2015 and beyond. Perhaps Cherington wanted to hear that from Levinson himself.
 
http://www.csnne.com/blog/red-sox-talk/three-things-we-learned-about-red-sox-sunday-1
 

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RedOctober3829 said:
Not sure if this has been mentioned in here, but this is in McAdam's latest column.
 
http://www.csnne.com/blog/red-sox-talk/three-things-we-learned-about-red-sox-sunday-1
 
Interesting. Question: if Cherington and Levinson were right now to reach a hypothetical understanding (so to speak) of the outlines of a workable deal, but without finalizing anything, and if Cherington were then to deal Lester for prospects, and if after the season Lester were then to sign a contract with the Sox along the lines of said hypothetical understanding....would that be considered a shady proceeding by MLB? 
 

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alwyn96

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ehaz said:
I know we've seen a lot of speculation with the LAD... but who else has the prospects (and potential need) for Lester?  Pittsburgh could lineup nicely with Taillon, Bell, Glasnow, Hanson as possible targets.
 
Of the teams in it this year, I'd say (in no particular order):
 
Baltimore (Bundy, Gausman, Harvey)
Washington (Giolito, Cole, Taylor) 
St Louis (Tavares, Piscotty)
Toronto (Norris, Pompey, Hoffman)
Seattle (Walker, Paxton, Jackson, Peterson)
SF (Crick)
Milwaukee (Nelson)
Atlanta (Pereza, Sims)
LAA (Newcomb?)
 
 
It seems unlikely that the Red Sox would deal Lester within the division, but you never know. Both Toronto and Baltimore have the prospects to get it done. You'd think Toronto would be getting a little antsy for a title, since they're pretty much all-in right now and their pitching is weak. 
 
Tavares probably isn't going to happen. I'm not sure SF, Atlanta, or LAA really have the top level prospects to get it done. Seattle definitely does, and Lester is from the Seattle area, so that's a possibility. The Nats could put together a competitive package, but their rotation looks pretty set unless there's an injury I'm not aware of. Milwaukee could probably use some help, but of course their top prospect is another AAA starter. 
 
Not including cost-controlled nonprospects because that just gets too complicated, but if there are multiple pieces moving around, then you could get a lot more creative than this list. And we've seen some pretty creative trades from the Red Sox, so that might even be the most likely. 
 

67WasBest

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Savin Hillbilly said:
 
Interesting. Question: if Cherington and Levinson were right now to reach a hypothetical understanding (so to speak) of the outlines of a workable deal, but without finalizing anything, and if Cherington were then to deal Lester for prospects, and if after the season Lester were then to sign a contract with the Sox along the lines of said hypothetical understanding....would that be considered a shady proceeding by MLB? 
I believe the way you wrote it would fail the smell test.  But the conversation doesn't have to be defined by dollars and years.  It could have been as simple as, "we want Jon to return, but we'd really like to leverage these last 3 months to add some talent by trading Jon to a playoff contender.  If we're in the ballpark of what you can get for Jon on the open market, would you be open to us offering a package to have Jon return, or would us dealing him preclude any possibility of a return to Boston? 
 

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Savin Hillbilly said:
 
Interesting. Question: if Cherington and Levinson were right now to reach a hypothetical understanding (so to speak) of the outlines of a workable deal, but without finalizing anything, and if Cherington were then to deal Lester for prospects, and if after the season Lester were then to sign a contract with the Sox along the lines of said hypothetical understanding....would that be considered a shady proceeding by MLB? 
What they "consider" it to be is only of interest as far as it's actionable.  If the deal were to the Dodgers, the Dodgers would (or should) know that they're trading for Lester's services through the last game of their season, full stop.  They're certainly aware of Lester's prior statements about wanting to stay in Boston, and their lack of control over the FA bidding.
 
Looks like no harm, no foul to me.
 

LuckyBen

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Listening to mlb radio and Jim Bowden is hyping the Lester for Kemp trade while the Sox cover the whole contract. This guy lives in La La land.
 

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So the Red Sox have contacted every contender that's looking for a starter and let all of them know Lester could be available for a two-or-three-player package fronted by at least one upper-echelon prospect. So just take all those Price-to-the-Dodgers/Mariners/Cardinals rumors and substitute Lester's name. And you'll be right on target. But while the asking price remains monstrous, it isn't quite what the Rays were asking for if they moved Price, either. "In the end, it has to be less," said one rival exec, "just because he's a free agent, and the other guy [Price] is not."
 
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/11276561/boston-red-sox-end-trading-jon-lester
 

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LuckyBen said:
Listening to mlb radio and Jim Bowden is hyping the Lester for Kemp trade while the Sox cover the whole contract. This guy lives in La La land.
 
 
Jim Bowden knows more about baseball than I ever will, much more.  But if he really thinks this is a viable possibility, then there's been a very fundamental change in the way teams are run that he's simply not grasping, and he's no longer qualified for his job.
 

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Bowden should ask himself - if Matt Kemp were placed on waivers, would the Red Sox claim him?
 
I mean, I guess the answer might be yes, but I have to hope it would be no (it would be no for me).  
 
He then has to ask himself - if Matt Kemp were claimed on waivers, would the Dodgers pull him off?  And I assume the answer there is also no.
 
Maybe I am completely wrong about these things and people think the old Matt Kemp is coming back.  
 

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moondog80 said:
 
 
Jim Bowden knows more about baseball than I ever will, much more.  But if he really thinks this is a viable possibility, then there's been a very fundamental change in the way teams are run that he's simply not grasping, and he's no longer qualified for his job.
I'm not sure either team would pull the trigger, but the Dodgers giving up their 2-3 best prospects to rent Lester and get Kemp's contract off the books is a deal that makes a modicum of sense for both teams. Kemp has a 122 wRC+ this season, so if he'd accept a defensive assignment that concealed his declining skills, he could earn something like half the remaining money on his contract.
 

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moondog80 said:
 
 
Jim Bowden knows more about baseball than I ever will, much more.  But if he really thinks this is a viable possibility, then there's been a very fundamental change in the way teams are run that he's simply not grasping, and he's no longer qualified for his job.
 
Have you ever seen Matt Kemp in a uniform?  And he dated Rihanna - that's huge.
 

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smastroyin said:
Bowden should ask himself - if Matt Kemp were placed on waivers, would the Red Sox claim him?
 
I mean, I guess the answer might be yes, but I have to hope it would be no (it would be no for me).  
 
He then has to ask himself - if Matt Kemp were claimed on waivers, would the Dodgers pull him off?  And I assume the answer there is also no.
 
Maybe I am completely wrong about these things and people think the old Matt Kemp is coming back.  
I think it's very possible for the old Matt Kemp to come back.  I don't think he gets along with Mattingly and is letting his current role affect his overall performance, but that's completely unscientific on my part.
 
That said, no way would the Sox (or anyone) snag him off waivers.  Getting him for 5 years/$60M or less would be appealing, however.  LAD still needs to add Joc to the deal (or Seager).
 

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Yaz4Ever said:
I think it's very possible for the old Matt Kemp to come back.  I don't think he gets along with Mattingly and is letting his current role affect his overall performance, but that's completely unscientific on my part.
 
That said, no way would the Sox (or anyone) snag him off waivers.  Getting him for 5 years/$60M or less would be appealing, however.  LAD still needs to add Joc to the deal (or Seager).
He's probably not going to get along too well with Farrell, then, when The Jaw tells him he's not letting him anywhere near center or right field.
 
I guess there's something to the rumors, but I just don't get where they're going with Kemp unless LA is willing to pick up so much of the tab that the Sox could just release him if he washed up here.
 
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