Trade deadline predictions

[grimshaw]

These things are difficult to determine with all the noise this time of year.  It may be fun to do these each year to have our terrible guesses etched in memory forever.
 
I will put myself on the record in saying that JBJ, Nap, Victorino and one of their recently signed free agents are dealt (not Porcello).  Gun to my head, Hanley.  This is equally due to roster inflexibility, as performance.  I am aware this is selling low, but Ben sounded fairly defeated in his recent state of the team address, so may be willing to admit a mistake early.
 
I will also predict they add an impact bullpen arm a la Kimbrel.  If they are feeling it, I could also see them dipping into the farm depth for a cost controlled starter.
 
What do you all think will happen?

 

[Cumberland Blues]

Victorino will be traded.  He is not an option in your poll.

 

[foulkehampshire]

Victorino and Napoli should be traded if only to free up roster spots for the AAA guys. The return will probably be irrelevant. 
 
I don't see this team tanking/fire-selling the the degree they did in 2012, 2014. They might even put up a fight to finish around .500. At some point they need to maintain a reasonably competitive roster to keep interest, no?

 

[chrisfont9]

Unlike last year the Sox' assets don't seem very enticing. Koji maybe but there are several closer choices dangling out there.

 

[ivanvamp]

Napoli and Victorino are traded for little more than salary relief.  JBJ stays.  Hanigan stays.  Maybe the Mets, who are now said to be seeking a quality bullpen arm (but not necessarily a closer), would want to get Tazawa or Uehara (who of course doesn't necessarily have to be a closer).  

 

[vadertime]

Breslow will be traded.  He's a veteran lefty with post season experience.  There will be some team that will give you a 'C' level prospect/lottery ticket for him.

 

[Thelobsterroll]

I think Hannigian might be a trade candidate. The Sox can then give more playing time to Swihart and then find some drek to back him up.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

I think Koji has a 50/50 chance of being dealt, and the return would probably be a "B" prospect, maybe a live arm, potential high leverage bullpen guy.
 
Napoli and Victorino will bring back filler... >75% chance they're moved (or just cut if they can't be dealt).
 
For the players listed, I'd estimate the chances of them being dealt are something like...
 
 
 
Napoli: >75%
Bradley: 30%
Koji: 50%
Tazawa: 40%
Holt: 15%
Sandoval: <5%
Hanley: 10%
Castillo: 30%
Porcello: <5%
Miley: 15%
Kelly: 30%
Barnes: 30%
 
They guys in the 15-40% range, I think are interesting cases, as they're all under control for multiple seasons at reasonable salaries. I wonder what they could bring back if package together.
 
Bradley, Miley, Tazawa
Castillo, Miley, Kelly
 
...packages as such... could bring back something very interesting. What if you tack on Swihart or Devers to such a package? Holt, in his current role is extremely valuable, because he can basically provide something around a league average replacement for seven different positions if someone has to get DL'd.
 
I'm drawing a blank on similar trades.

 

[BosRedSox5]

I misread that as "C (as in catcher) prospect/throw-ins." Derp. 

I change my vote to that from B prospects. 

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

The prospect return is dependent solely on Koji.
I can see a edRod version 2015 coming back. Remember, EdRod was just a good prospect when the Sox aquired him.

Napoli and Victorino are gone for peanuts or just DFAd

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

I don't think they will trade anyone because the return won't be worth it.  Ben will say how having Napoli and Vic on the bench is good for the youngsters so they can see how "real veterans" prepare for games.  The reality of it is that no one would give up anything of value for either guy.  Why would you?
 
Napoli will be a Cherington buy-low candidate next season, hoping that the surgery and change in workout routine messed Napoli up.  It's a stupid move, but it has Cherington written all over it IMO.  
 
We'll need Koji next year, plus there are a lot of closers out there on the market.  No one will want Panda or Hanley (and the Sox won't eat enough of the contract).  I think BenC sticks with a lot of these guys next year coming to the conclusion that they weren't as bad of signings as everyone thinks.  Hanley will either get better in the OF at Fenway or move to 1B.  Panda will be embarrassed of his performance and come to camp in shape.  The pitchers will bounce back.  I think Cherington goes all in with his original evaluations.  
 
Not that I want these things to happen, that's just my prediction.  No trades at the deadline.  

 

[AB in DC]

I want to vote "no one" for both questions, but the poll doesn't give that as an option for #2.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

The only player that I think is definitely gone is Victorino.  He can offer some level of help to a contender, and he's blocking other guys here.  I also wouldn't be surprised if De Aza is gone as well.

 

[Merkle's Boner]

Surprised more don't think JBJ is gone. He doesn't seem to have any future here. They really aren't giving him a chance to succeed at the ML level but his numbers at AAA this year, plus his defense, will mean here will be a market for him. He's gone.

 

[YTF]

Teams aren't going to be knocking the doors down for what the Sox might have to offer. There's not a whole lot there. I think De Aza is of some value to any team looking to bolster the outfield and Holt's versatility would work well for almost any team. Hanigan might make a nice back up for teams needing help behind the plate. Other than that I can see Napoli landing somewhere with the Sox getting next to nothing, the same with Victorino. Maybe Koji, but he's due another 9 million next season. Castillo's owed big money for a guy yet to make it. Sox are in a shitty position if they we're to consider them sellers. The guys with big contracts are not performing anywhere near what they're being paid with not a lot else to offer. Kelly won't fetch much and likewise Miley. If they're considered buyers then they're going to have to dig into farm system with little else fortify any potential deals. The season's a mess and I really have no expectations of anything much happening this week.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Surprised more don't think JBJ is gone. He doesn't seem to have any future here. They really aren't giving him a chance to succeed at the ML level but his numbers at AAA this year, plus his defense, will mean here will be a market for him. He's gone.

He's only gone if he's part of a big deal.  He's not going to be dumped for a lottery ticket.  There is just no reason to do that.

 

[Return of the Dewey]

If you choose no one in the first question, then the second question can't be answered

 

[MikeM]

1. Both Napoli and Victorino get dumped for nothing noteworthy, with us picking up all of their contracts.
 
2. Bradley gets dealt in a deal that lands us a quality reliever controlled beyond this season (which ends up being a topic of hot debate in the aftermath)
 
3. If Hamels can be had for a package that does not include Swihart, Ben pushes the "want top avoid deep end free agency at all costs" panic button on a trade centered around Edro+ (again, with that plus playing out to be a hot aftermath topic). 
 
Sleeper prediction - With an eye of moving Hanley to first next season, and given a lack of confidence in the offensive potential of our internal OF options going forward, we find Ben seriously sniffing around a Jay Bruce or Josh Reddick type. Which would also serve to ideally push Panda's declining bat down in the lineup. 
 
Like HS suggested above, i'd also put the potential we trade Koji down at 50/50. 

 

[grimshaw]

I want to vote "no one" for both questions, but the poll doesn't give that as an option for #2.

Added it.

 

[Rasputin]

Surprised more don't think JBJ is gone. He doesn't seem to have any future here. They really aren't giving him a chance to succeed at the ML level but his numbers at AAA this year, plus his defense, will mean here will be a market for him. He's gone.

I'm surprised anyone thinks he's gone because with Castillo's ineptitude, JBJ is clearly the guy most ready to step in once Vic is gone.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Surprised more don't think JBJ is gone. He doesn't seem to have any future here. They really aren't giving him a chance to succeed at the ML level but his numbers at AAA this year, plus his defense, will mean here will be a market for him. He's gone.

 
I'm surprised people don't recognize that they simply don't want to dump Victorino and Deaza and they don't want to appear to be waving the white flag before the deadline, and that's why JBJ remains in Pawtucket.  Bradley has another option year and 5+ years of big league control left beyond that.  I don't see where there's a need to rush to judgment on him at all.
 
If he's asked for in a bigger deal, they probably won't hesitate to move him, but i can't see why they'd be shopping him around.  His future with the team seems fairly undecided to me.

 

[CarolinaBeerGuy]

Victorino, Uehara and Napoli will get dealt and we'll get C level prospects back in return.

 

[Byrdbrain]

 
I'm surprised people don't recognize that they simply don't want to dump Victorino and Deaza and they don't want to appear to be waving the white flag before the deadline, and that's why JBJ remains in Pawtucket.  Bradley has another option year and 5+ years of big league control left beyond that.  I don't see where there's a need to rush to judgment on him at all.
 
If he's asked for in a bigger deal, they probably won't hesitate to move him, but i can't see why they'd be shopping him around.  His future with the team seems fairly undecided to me.

This is absolutely correct.
While like most I'd like to see JBJ up here now I have to think they will move at least one outfielder to make room for him.
I'm agnostic on Napoli, if they can figure out a way to get something that might be even remotely useful than sure get rid of him but he isn't blocking anyone so there is no cost(other than $s and that doesn't matter at this point) in keeping him.
 
Edit:Can and can't mean different things.

 

[Rasputin]

I'll predict that Vic gets traded. I think maybe Napoli and Breslow go if only because lefties are always needed and the Sox don't really need to get anything back for Nap to send him to the Pirates.
 
What I want is for Vic, Nap, Breslow,and Masterson to be gone and for JBJ, Castillo, Johnson, Barnes, and other AAA relievers to get some big league innings. I don't care if it requires weird roster machinations.