Tompa Bay: Tom Tom Club

Mystic Merlin

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I hate to be that person, but imagine if the Patriots had kept AB and brought in Sherman after the DV arrest - the media outrage would be unbearable.

I'm not sure why its acceptable for the Bucs but nobody seems to care - in fact the media seems super excited to add on to the Sunday Night game.

View: https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1443198158717263877
Who will give a shit about Richard Sherman come Sunday? I know Schefter is doing his league hype thing, but gimme a break.
 

DeadlySplitter

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I just think it's funny that people for some reason decided this Tampa defense was the second coming of the 2000 Ravens after the Super Bowl and here we are three games in and a 44 year old QB is being asked to carry a team with no running game and no pass defense.
How much of the bad secondary is Bunting's injury?
 

rodderick

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How much of the bad secondary is Bunting's injury?
Remains to be seen, but Bunting isn't anything special either. I just think no one expected NFL teams to just go "you know what, we can't run on these guys wo we're throwing all game" but that's exactly what everyone's been doing. Less obvious passing downs, less opportunities for the defense to just pin their ears back, the pass rush has been bad. Just a confluence of factors, but I don't think they have the corners to limit anyone if the front seven isn't playing well.
 

Ale Xander

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On one hand Sherman isn’t anywhere as good as Revis was when we got him way back when. On the other hand, Tom and the Bucs are starting to really piss me off.
 

BaseballJones

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Tom Brady is absolutely ridiculous.

44 years old.

149-225 (66.2%), 1,767 yds, 7.9 y/a, 15 td, 2 int, 108.5 rating

Team is 4-1, averaging 33.4 points per game.

Again: he's 44 years old.
 

rodderick

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20211013_082228.jpg

This graph to me is insane. How many more passing TDs could Brady have had if the Pats just had the expected number of rushing TDs from inside the 5 in his last 13 years in NE? Like 40? On the other hand, look at where Green Bay stands.
 

Big McCorkle

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View attachment 45242

This graph to me is insane. How many more passing TDs could Brady have had if the Pats just had the expected number of rushing TDs from inside the 5 in his last 13 years in NE? Like 40? On the other hand, look at where Green Bay stands.
The three outliers are hilarious. There's Carolina, which, yup, is exactly what you'd expect given Cam's ability to be a wrecking ball on the goal line. You've got Tom, humbly handing the ball off on to LeGarrette Blount. And then there's Aaron Rodgers, Lord Stat Paddington himself.
 

BaseballJones

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Brees is interesting on that chart. NO scored a ton of points, but he basically threw the expected number of TD passes given how much they scored.
 

bsartist618

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Brady had 19 rushing touchdowns over that span. I have no idea how many were < 5 yards (or how to find that information), but considering his QB sneak prowess, that may help explain the outlier somewhat.

Edit: I was able to find that Newton had 21 < 5 yards.
 

johnmd20

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The three outliers are hilarious. There's Carolina, which, yup, is exactly what you'd expect given Cam's ability to be a wrecking ball on the goal line. You've got Tom, humbly handing the ball off on to LeGarrette Blount. And then there's Aaron Rodgers, Lord Stat Paddington himself.
This is so hilariously petty.
 

moretsyndrome

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View attachment 45242

This graph to me is insane. How many more passing TDs could Brady have had if the Pats just had the expected number of rushing TDs from inside the 5 in his last 13 years in NE? Like 40? On the other hand, look at where Green Bay stands.
It's more depressing to me. The chart for the next 12 years will most likely have NE's overall scoring dot placed in the jumbled cluster of mediocrity, not resting in some sort of outlier island.
 

Cornboy14

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It's nearly criminal that after Moss' exit, the best deep threat Brady was given was 29 year old Chris Hogan, or one year of Brandin Cooks.

The third best might be one game of 32 year old Donte' Stallworth. After that I think it's Dobson or Kenbrell Thompkins.

Edited to add: Ah, I'm forgetting 17 games of Josh Gordon, and Phillip Dorsett and of course one game of Antonio.
 
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rodderick

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It's nearly criminal that after Moss' exit, the best deep threat Brady was given was 29 year old Chris Hogan, or one year of Brandin Cooks.

The third best might be one game of 32 year old Donte' Stallworth. After that I think it's Dobson or Kenbrell Thompkins.

Edited to add: Ah, I'm forgetting 17 games of Josh Gordon, and Phillip Dorsett and of course one game of Antonio.
Josh Gordon wasn't a deep threat with the Pats, he was used basically as a possession outside receiver. Dorsett just sucked.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Some other crazy Brady nuggets, because why not?

View: https://twitter.com/Swami_EA/status/1448432569704456196?t=LkmStRkD0iiE2yqmGapvWg&s=19

All of these per Next Gen Stats. He might legitimately be better physically than he's ever been.
I guess it's time to officially put to rest the "Was it right to trade Jimmy G. and keep Brady argument?" The man was, is, and will always be the greatest football player that ever lived, and if he wants to, he could probably keep doing this for another 3-4 years. Would anyone here bet against him? And yes, I realize some folks here thought he'd never be playing at this point.
 

rodderick

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Gordon averaged 18 yards per catch in 2018, second most in the league (after Desean Jackson and just ahead of Mike Evans). He wasn't a possession receiver.
Yards per catch isn't the best measure of whether a player was used as a deep threat or not, but he was 17th in average depth of target and 8th in yards before catch per reception so you're right, he was much more of a deep threat than I remebered.
 

Euclis20

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Yards per catch isn't the best measure of whether a player was used as a deep threat or not, but he was 17th in average depth of target and 8th in yards before catch per reception so you're right, he was much more of a deep threat than I remebered.
Yeah I'm not saying he was the second best deep threat in the league that year, but he was more than adequate as a #1 deep threat. The real issue is that he played just 17 games with the Pats.
 

lexrageorge

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It's nearly criminal that after Moss' exit, the best deep threat Brady was given was 29 year old Chris Hogan, or one year of Brandin Cooks.

The third best might be one game of 32 year old Donte' Stallworth. After that I think it's Dobson or Kenbrell Thompkins.

Edited to add: Ah, I'm forgetting 17 games of Josh Gordon, and Phillip Dorsett and of course one game of Antonio.
So criminal that Brady got 3 more Super Bowl rings out of Belichick's moves.

Brady did get to throw to one of the NFL's best tight ends ever for 9 of his years here, and also had a useful swiss army knife tight end, who unfortunately decided to start killing people. He also had some really nice pass-catching running backs to work with.

The reality of the salary cap is that NFL teams are sort of forced to focus on some areas at the expense of others. The D the year Moss left was absolutely terrible and was aging to boot. And the OL needed to have new blood added to the mix from time to time due to injuries, trades, and free agent defections.

But, yes, I would have loved to have seen a prime Larry Fitzgerald or Calvin Johnson on the team.
 

BusRaker

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It was pretty helpful to the team that Tom could work in new receivers each year from both a salary cap perspective and a defensive scouting perspective where they couldn't mimic a BB "Take away what they do best" (i.e. pass to a Megatron) approach. The cap savings alone might have been enough to flip a L or two to a W.

So I'm pretty happy we never paid a Julio Jones and instead paid a Revis / Gilmore less to take away the other team's Julio Jones
 

rodderick

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I think Bill made exactly two mistakes in the "give Brady weapons" front: letting both Givens and Branch go in a single off-season before 2006, and letting Amendola go and trading Cooks (and trying to trade Gronk) in the off-season before 2018. Now, it worked out the second time and they won the Super Bowl, but that was a thin group in the playoffs after Gordon left and it could have been a fatal flaw just like it was for the 2006 team. Not a fan of rebuilding the receiving corps wholesale in general, I think familiarity and continuity is more key at those positions than most.

Not saying they should have kept all of those guys, but they shouldn't have let all of them go simultaneously. Too much turnover in a system that's notoriously hard for receivers to pick up quickly.
 

Cornboy14

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But, yes, I would have loved to have seen a prime Larry Fitzgerald or Calvin Johnson on the team.
I think we all understand the cap realities. There were opportunities to do it without getting a prime HoF WR - from drafting slightly better to offering Emmanuel Sanders a little more money to relying less on older WRs in trades/free agency (Ochocinco, Brandon Lloyd, Branch's second visit).

I think at least a bit of the failures of the draft picks rests with Brady, he could be too unforgiving of the failures of young guys. But the fact that none of the draft picks went on to play well anywhere else tells us they weren't that good.

It's OK to give Belichick a great overall grade at GM/Coach while still acknowledging that he may have underused Brady's deep throwing.
 

lexrageorge

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I think we all understand the cap realities. There were opportunities to do it without getting a prime HoF WR - from drafting slightly better to offering Emmanuel Sanders a little more money to relying less on older WRs in trades/free agency (Ochocinco, Brandon Lloyd, Branch's second visit).

I think at least a bit of the failures of the draft picks rests with Brady, he could be too unforgiving of the failures of young guys. But the fact that none of the draft picks went on to play well anywhere else tells us they weren't that good.

It's OK to give Belichick a great overall grade at GM/Coach while still acknowledging that he may have underused Brady's deep throwing.
The incoming Branch trade was due entirely to Moss's departure, and Moss clearly wasn't going to fit here that 2009 season. So that was hardly the problem; it cost them a 4th rounder and they got a couple of decent seasons from him.

#85 was a scrap heap pickup for cheap dollars. Lloyd was a mild disappointment, but still gave the team over 900 receiving yards, and was battling various personal issues. I'm always skeptical on reports of missed free agent signings. The Hernandez cap situation hurt them during this time period as well.

The draft has been an issue. Harry was a huge miss, and that had nothing to do with Brady; I think you would agree on both fronts there.
 

Deathofthebambino

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So criminal that Brady got 3 more Super Bowl rings out of Belichick's moves.

Brady did get to throw to one of the NFL's best tight ends ever for 9 of his years here, and also had a useful swiss army knife tight end, who unfortunately decided to start killing people. He also had some really nice pass-catching running backs to work with.
Not to mention a few pretty all-world slot receivers too...
 

BaseballJones

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I guess it's time to officially put to rest the "Was it right to trade Jimmy G. and keep Brady argument?" The man was, is, and will always be the greatest football player that ever lived, and if he wants to, he could probably keep doing this for another 3-4 years. Would anyone here bet against him? And yes, I realize some folks here thought he'd never be playing at this point.
I think we can say it was a mistake since Brady has continued to be otherworldly.

But....

It was a totally understandable mistake. I mean, in the history of the sport, nobody has done what Brady is doing. It wasn't crazy of BB to think that Brady's end was coming soon.
 

rodderick

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I think we can say it was a mistake since Brady has continued to be otherworldly.

But....

It was a totally understandable mistake. I mean, in the history of the sport, nobody has done what Brady is doing. It wasn't crazy of BB to think that Brady's end was coming soon.
Yeah, but it's not like he was playing at 2009/2010 David Ortiz levels and then had a sudden resurgence when they refused to give him an extension with guarantees (2017/2018). He was still Brady, they just didn't think he'd be Brady at 44. It's understandable, but still he was already at an age where guys historically decline and he hadn't declined yet, so maybe you do move the needle a bit in the "hey, there's a chance he can do it" direction.

I think if the contract negotiations stalled after 2019 it would make more sense because he wasn't great that year (even if he had dreck around him). But he was great at 40 and 41, so I think the projection has to change at that point.
 

Deathofthebambino

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I think we can say it was a mistake since Brady has continued to be otherworldly.

But....

It was a totally understandable mistake. I mean, in the history of the sport, nobody has done what Brady is doing. It wasn't crazy of BB to think that Brady's end was coming soon.
In the history of the sport, nobody had done was Brady was doing at that point either. He's just adding cherries on top of the greatest career sundae ever made since then. My point then and now has always been "When you have the GOAT, and he's still playing like the GOAT, you worry about it when he's no longer the GOAT." In 2017, Tom Brady was showing no signs of decline and he hasn't since then (he's actually getting better, it seems). Now, I'm fine with Brady leaving when he left, as I think it was the only move for both sides, but when the Jimmy G. trade was happening, the idea of moving on from Brady simply made no sense. I mean, the calculus was pretty simple. If the guy falls off Max Kellerman's cliff, so be it, he gave you xxxx Super Bowl rings, and he's on a short term deal that you can let go of at any time. Or, you can run him out of town, let the young QB that had proven absolutely nothing at that point run the show, and hope you end up making the right decision for the organization. I'm happy they chose the former.
 

BaseballJones

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Brady definitely wasn't playing like the GOAT in 2019. I know he didn't have a ton to work with that year, but he also just wasn't that great.

Raw data
2016: 67.4%, 8.2 y/a, 28 td, 2 int, 112.2 rating
2017: 66.3%, 7.9 y/a, 32 td, 8 int, 102.8 rating
2018: 65.8%, 7.6 y/a, 29 td, 11 int, 97.7 rating
2019: 60.8%, 6.6 y/a, 24 td, 8 int, 88.0 rating

Brady's last 9 games of 2018 through all of 2019, plus the four playoff games in those two years:

Last 9 games of 2018: 205-320 (64.1%), 2,479 yds, 13 td, 4 int, 96.1 rating
16 games in 2019: 373-613 (60.8%), 4,057 yds, 24 td, 8 int, 88.0 rating
4 playoff games: 105-162 (64.8%), 1,162 yds, 2 td, 4 int, 79.8 rating

TOTAL (29 games): 683-1,095 (62.4%), 7,698 yds, 39 td, 16 int, 89.1 rating

That's not a small sample. We see consistent decline from 2016-2019. The last 29 games of his career, the numbers are actually pretty ugly for him. Clearly the data doesn't suggest that he was a guy who would be lighting the NFL up at age 43 or 44. Now he made some huge plays in the Chiefs AFCCG, and had that one great drive in the Rams Super Bowl, but he also made some key mistakes. He wasn't good in the Tennessee playoff game.

Again, he didn't have the best weapons around him, but an objective look at his performance suggests decline. Not "wow this is a guy who will be playing at an MVP level at ages 43 and 44".

That Brady has gotten back to this level is astounding and a testimony to his greatness. But it's totally understandable to me how a guy like BB could see this and think, "yeah I'll take him but not at the kind of money it will require because I don't know that he's ever going to be TOM BRADY again."
 

rodderick

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Brady definitely wasn't playing like the GOAT in 2019. I know he didn't have a ton to work with that year, but he also just wasn't that great.

Raw data
2016: 67.4%, 8.2 y/a, 28 td, 2 int, 112.2 rating
2017: 66.3%, 7.9 y/a, 32 td, 8 int, 102.8 rating
2018: 65.8%, 7.6 y/a, 29 td, 11 int, 97.7 rating
2019: 60.8%, 6.6 y/a, 24 td, 8 int, 88.0 rating

Brady's last 9 games of 2018 through all of 2019, plus the four playoff games in those two years:

Last 9 games of 2018: 205-320 (64.1%), 2,479 yds, 13 td, 4 int, 96.1 rating
16 games in 2019: 373-613 (60.8%), 4,057 yds, 24 td, 8 int, 88.0 rating
4 playoff games: 105-162 (64.8%), 1,162 yds, 2 td, 4 int, 79.8 rating

TOTAL (29 games): 683-1,095 (62.4%), 7,698 yds, 39 td, 16 int, 89.1 rating

That's not a small sample. We see consistent decline from 2016-2019. The last 29 games of his career, the numbers are actually pretty ugly for him. Clearly the data doesn't suggest that he was a guy who would be lighting the NFL up at age 43 or 44. Now he made some huge plays in the Chiefs AFCCG, and had that one great drive in the Rams Super Bowl, but he also made some key mistakes. He wasn't good in the Tennessee playoff game.

Again, he didn't have the best weapons around him, but an objective look at his performance suggests decline. Not "wow this is a guy who will be playing at an MVP level at ages 43 and 44".

That Brady has gotten back to this level is astounding and a testimony to his greatness. But it's totally understandable to me how a guy like BB could see this and think, "yeah I'll take him but not at the kind of money it will require because I don't know that he's ever going to be TOM BRADY again."
I think you're selling the Chiefs performance extremely short. He made one bad play and was absolute nails the rest of the way. The other pick bounced off Edelman's hands. It's why using passer rating in the context of the playoffs is absolutely meaningless, it's a small sample.

Brady was great in the Chiefs game by EPA/Play but had a rating in the 70s. He was as lights out as you can possibly be against the Chargers, but Sony Michel finished those drives with 1-3 yard runs and he ends up with 1 TD pass and a very good passer rating, but nothing exceptional. Add some of those rushing TDs as passing and his numbers in that playoff run look fantastic.

To say there was consistent decline between 2016 and 2019 is crazy to me. He was MVP in 2017, for one. His 2018 numbers were right in the 2017 range or better until he lost Josh Gordon and had the corpse of Hogan, Phillip Dorsett and Cordarelle Patterson as his 2-4 receivers with a gimpy Gronk. I think you can pretty easily match the statistical decline with the weapons decline. And once again, the contract dispute did not happen after his "meh" 2019 and it would have been more understandable if it did. It started after 2017, a season in which he was MVP and threw for 500 yards in the Super Bowl.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Brady definitely wasn't playing like the GOAT in 2019. I know he didn't have a ton to work with that year, but he also just wasn't that great.

Raw data
2016: 67.4%, 8.2 y/a, 28 td, 2 int, 112.2 rating
2017: 66.3%, 7.9 y/a, 32 td, 8 int, 102.8 rating
2018: 65.8%, 7.6 y/a, 29 td, 11 int, 97.7 rating
2019: 60.8%, 6.6 y/a, 24 td, 8 int, 88.0 rating

Brady's last 9 games of 2018 through all of 2019, plus the four playoff games in those two years:

Last 9 games of 2018: 205-320 (64.1%), 2,479 yds, 13 td, 4 int, 96.1 rating
16 games in 2019: 373-613 (60.8%), 4,057 yds, 24 td, 8 int, 88.0 rating
4 playoff games: 105-162 (64.8%), 1,162 yds, 2 td, 4 int, 79.8 rating

TOTAL (29 games): 683-1,095 (62.4%), 7,698 yds, 39 td, 16 int, 89.1 rating

That's not a small sample. We see consistent decline from 2016-2019. The last 29 games of his career, the numbers are actually pretty ugly for him. Clearly the data doesn't suggest that he was a guy who would be lighting the NFL up at age 43 or 44. Now he made some huge plays in the Chiefs AFCCG, and had that one great drive in the Rams Super Bowl, but he also made some key mistakes. He wasn't good in the Tennessee playoff game.

Again, he didn't have the best weapons around him, but an objective look at his performance suggests decline. Not "wow this is a guy who will be playing at an MVP level at ages 43 and 44".

That Brady has gotten back to this level is astounding and a testimony to his greatness. But it's totally understandable to me how a guy like BB could see this and think, "yeah I'll take him but not at the kind of money it will require because I don't know that he's ever going to be TOM BRADY again."
Rodderick just pointed out some of the issues with this, but let's remember, the Jimmy G. trade happened in the fall of 2017. There was no decline at that point, he was MVP at the end of that season, and threw for 505 yards in the Super Bowl. Then he won the Super Bowl again in 2018. Then 2019 happened, aka, the Sanu/AB/Gordon clusterfuck of shit. Jimmy G. wouldn't have dragged that team to the playoffs (assuming he would have been healthy enough to play). Getting rid of Jimmy G. and keeping Brady was a success in every sense of the word, it was the right decision in the moment, and it was the right decision in hindsight.
 

BaseballJones

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He went from the best in the NFL to really really good to pretty good to not that good in a four-year stretch. Yes I know, lack of weapons. I think there was more to it than that.
 

BaseballJones

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Rodderick just pointed out some of the issues with this, but let's remember, the Jimmy G. trade happened in the fall of 2017. There was no decline at that point, he was MVP at the end of that season, and threw for 505 yards in the Super Bowl. Then he won the Super Bowl again in 2018. Then 2019 happened, aka, the Sanu/AB/Gordon clusterfuck of shit. Jimmy G. wouldn't have dragged that team to the playoffs (assuming he would have been healthy enough to play). Getting rid of Jimmy G. and keeping Brady was a success in every sense of the word, it was the right decision in the moment, and it was the right decision in hindsight.
I agree with that.
 

rodderick

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He went from the best in the NFL to really really good to pretty good to not that good in a four-year stretch. Yes I know, lack of weapons. I think there was more to it than that.
He went from 2nd in MVP voting (probably gets it if not for the bullshit suspension) to 1st in MVP voting, to fringe top 5 QB from 2016-2018. 2019 was the only outlier there, the rest of it was just the natural variation of the sport and the change in surrounding cast. I mean, if leading the 4th best offense in DVOA in 2018 is "decline", then they sure as hell should have signed him to an extension.
 

Super Nomario

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He went from the best in the NFL to really really good to pretty good to not that good in a four-year stretch. Yes I know, lack of weapons. I think there was more to it than that.
Was there though? Because reunited with excellent weapons in Tampa Bay, he's been excellent again. The obvious conclusion to me is that (like every quarterback ever), Brady's statistics fluctuated with his supporting cast, and I'm not seeing strong arguments to the contrary.
 

snowmanny

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That OL/TE was so bad in 2019. I have no clue how anyone can point to anything but that when looking at Brady’s performance. The last twelve or so games of the season it was like a loop of the 2015 AFCCG line play.
 

BaseballJones

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Was there though? Because reunited with excellent weapons in Tampa Bay, he's been excellent again. The obvious conclusion to me is that (like every quarterback ever), Brady's statistics fluctuated with his supporting cast, and I'm not seeing strong arguments to the contrary.
Well BB had to make a decision before he saw Brady light it up with a better offensive supporting cast.