Tommy Layne, the lefty whiffs another customer...

[mabrowndog]

Couldn't resist. Besides, neither Lennon or McCartney had such a killer slider as this guy.
 
Loved the way he battled back against Castro after falling behind 3-0, catching him looking at FB-SL-FB in succession before getting ahead of Singleton and finishing him off swinging.
 
SSS results in all their glory for his 8 games this month: 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 2 BB (1 IBB), 6 K, and a .091/.167/.182/.348
 
From BrooksBaseball.net:
 

Tom Layne has thrown 663 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2009 and 2014, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season, Spring Training and Fall/Winter Ball. In 2014, he has relied primarily on his Slider (86mph) and Sinker (91mph), also mixing in a Curve (80mph) and Fourseam Fastball (91mph). He also rarely throws a Cutter (89mph).

 
His 2014 repertoire in the majors:
 
[tablegrid=]Pitch Type  Count  Freq  Velo (mph)  pfx HMov (in.)  pfx VMov (in.)  H. Rel (ft.)  V. Rel (ft.) Fourseam 8 8.33% 90.99 4.6 7.1 3.47 6.79 Sinker 34 35.42% 90.56 10.23 2.25 3.9 6.54 Slider 38 39.58% 85.52 0.47 1.23 3.48 6.85 Curve 10 10.42% 80.44 -6.73 0.11 4.37 5.78 Cutter 2 2.08% 88.74 1.59 6.36 3.31 6.9 [/tablegrid]
 
 
According to Brooks, 57% of his sliders are finding the strike zone. So he's not just baiting hitters to chase it away from the plate. If they lay off of it, odds are they're getting burned.
 

 
 
He's no Andrew Miller replacement, but he certainly seems more potentially useful than sidearmer Mike Myers was in 2004-05. And while Breslow will always have a seat at the 2013 table, there's no way the Sox should be picking up his $4M option. Not when there's a perfectly viable alternative who's far cheaper and has another minor league option left after this year.

 

[nvalvo]

That 1.18 FIP in 16.2 innings with the Padres a few years back (25 K to 3 BB, 9 H) was downright Ueharan. Twice as many strikeouts as baserunners!

 

[curly2]

Maybe Layne is a guy who's found something. You'd like to have at least two lefties in the pen, and since Layne is under team control and still has an option, he should definitely get a long look in Fort Myers.
 

He's no Andrew Miller replacement.
 

 
Hopefully the Andrew Miller replacement is Andrew Miller.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

I would love for him to be the Breslow replacement. Bring Miller back and this pen looks pretty damn solid in 2015.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

That 1.18 FIP in 16.2 innings with the Padres a few years back (25 K to 3 BB, 9 H) was downright Ueharan. Twice as many strikeouts as baserunners!

Yes, and then he only gets 8.2 innings next year, despite the fact that he has a "rubber arm" and lvoes to pitch every day.

This fireman rushes in from the pouring rain, very strange!

 

[twothousandone]

Hopefully the Andrew Miller replacement is Andrew Miller.

Which Andrew Miller, though. 2010? 2012? 2014? And for Thornton equivalent money ($12 million for two years)? $9 million over three years? $20 million over four?
Garces, Okajima, even Bard are instructive here, as is Uehara. Middle relievers gain it and lose it, seemingly with no warning.

Layne may be the former, permitting them to not have to pay top dollar to assume the risk of the latter. Or allowing them to take the risk.

 

[crystalline]

His multiple arm slots are interesting

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/tom-layne-and-release-points/

 

[Sprowl]

His multiple arm slots are interesting

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/tom-layne-and-release-points/

 
If I'm reading the charts right, Layne only drops down to full sidearm in order to throw his slurviest, slowest ~80 mph curve as in the game against the Cardinals:
 

 
His pattern against the Cardinals was easy to decode: on the first pitch, throw the 4-seamer (or a cutter) for a strike. Then, alternate sliders and sinkers and throw in the occasional slurve.
 

 

[alwyn96]

I thought part of the reason to prefer a consistent release point was so hitters can't tell what pitch you're throwing. Seems like having a different release point for different pitches would tip the pitch to the hitter. I'm not sure how long that would work once the league got familiar with it. I suppose if it was just mixed in every so often and wasn't something he depended on for success it might steal a strike or two, but if Layne sticks around I wonder if we'll see less of it. 

 

[mabrowndog]

I thought part of the reason to prefer a consistent release point was so hitters can't tell what pitch you're throwing.

 
That and a theoretically lower injury risk from a more consistent and repeatable delivery. But as the Fangraphs piece linked upthread by Crystalline notes, a number of successful MLB pitchers have used varying arm slots, including Javier Lopez, Bronson Arroyo, Mike Mussina, Jose Contreras, Alberto Castillo and Bruce Chen.
 

Release points are a wrinkle in any attempt to create a process-based model for pitching success. You might be able to account for velocity difference and variety movement when describing your ideal pitcher, but what will his release points look like? While different slots might be bad for your health and ability to repeat your delivery, once you master the ability, it seems clear that it can be an asset. At the very least, it’s helping Tom Layne be a weapon against batters from both sides of the plate right now.

 
My favorite part of that piece by far is the assessment of Layne's pitches to Adrian Gonzalez, including two beautiful animated GIFS.
 

They’re both curveballs, but they couldn’t be more different while being the same pitch thrown by the same man. First, the sidearm version:
 

 
And then, with Gonzalez trying to gauge the left-to-right movement and watching that sidearm angle, Layne dropped this over-the-top hammer on him:
 

 

 

[crystalline]

I was watching Layne get loose in the bullpen yesterday, and had pegged him in my mind "lefty, kind of gangly, medium velocity, throws over the top".  Then he started dropping down to sidearm and for a second I thought I was losing it.  Then he popped back up to throwing over the top. 
 
Thanks for posting the gifs - the different break on those two balls is pretty amazing.    That bottom gif reminded me of the Sports On Earth article on the demise of the "Big Overhand Curve".  Must-read if you haven't seen it yet.

 

[crystalline]

Sprowl - I looked a little closer at his pitchfx data, starting from this Brooks page.
 
The top row of points is his overhand release point (around 7.25ft) and the bottom red and yellow points around 6ft are his sidearm releases.  I think the red point is misclassfied as a slider and should be a curve.
 
The point with the text box all the way at the left is his overhand curve (the bottom gif above).  It's nasty, but from what I can see he rarely throws it -- he hasn't thrown one this year (see the Sports on Earth article for some discussion of why the overhand curve isn't popular now).     Others might be able to figure out more from the link above.
 
 

 

[Sprowl]

Sprowl - I looked a little closer at his pitchfx data, starting from this Brooks page.
 
The top row of points is his overhand release point (around 7.25ft) and the bottom red and yellow points around 6ft are his sidearm releases.  I think the red point is misclassfied as a slider and should be a curve.
 
The point with the text box all the way at the left is his overhand curve (the bottom gif above).  It's nasty, but from what I can see he rarely throws it -- he hasn't thrown one this year (see the Sports on Earth article for some discussion of why the overhand curve isn't popular now).     Others might be able to figure out more from the link above.

 
That's very interesting, and contrary to my usual expectation, which is that the greatest horizontal movement on a pitch comes from a sidearmer, and that any more vertical angle will necessarily subtract from horizontal movement. If he is getting such wicked movement on a (relatively) overhand curve, it should be a killer pitch. Why he doesn't throw it more often (whatever "it" is) is a puzzlement.
 
Layne's staple pitch against lefties looks to be his slider, which doesn't have impressive movement, but seems to to fool batters so far. He tends to throw it high, and the batter lets it drop into the zone for a high called strike. That's a dangerous pitch to rely on, and like Koji's fastball, can be hit a long way when the batter guesses right.
 
Classification still presents some mysteries for Layne. Multiple delivery slots in principle might be effective, if the secondary slot were used only once during an at-bat. Just because the batter knows something different is coming doesn't mean that he can hit it, especially if he is a LHB already spooked by the matchup. Some lefties instinctively bail when confronted with a sweeping sidearm delivery. Rich Hill is the most recent master of the sweeping lefty curve, but Tommy John took him from us far too soon.

 

[Plympton91]

Which Andrew Miller, though. 2010? 2012? 2014? And for Thornton equivalent money ($12 million for two years)? $9 million over three years? $20 million over four?
Garces, Okajima, even Bard are instructive here, as is Uehara. Middle relievers gain it and lose it, seemingly with no warning.

Layne may be the former, permitting them to not have to pay top dollar to assume the risk of the latter. Or allowing them to take the risk.

The Andrew Miller from 2012 to 2014 has been a steady progression from good to great with a fluke injury robbing him of half a season. He should be paid as one of the 5 best set up left handed setup men in the game who's never had an arm injury and has yet to turn 30. That's probably somewhere around 4/$25 currently and the Red Sox should be all over that. They don't need a goddamn bargain flier or hometown anomalies like Pedrioa and Ortiz at every position on the field

 

[mabrowndog]

I think there's a really good chance Miller will be paid like a closer, more in the 3/$28M to 4/$35M range.

 

[mfried]

I think there's a really good chance Miller will be paid like a closer, more in the 3/$28M to 4/$35M range.

Crazy to see Layne as a Miller substitute,  Has possibilities as a Breslow substitute.

 

[Sprowl]

Crazy to see Layne as a Miller substitute,  Has possibilities as a Breslow substitute.

 
I think Layne is a real LOOGY. While Miller and Breslow have both been capable of pitching effectively to RHB (Breslow not as effective as Miller lately, but very useful in 2013), I doubt that Layne can be used as a general-purpose reliever in high-leverage situations. If Layne is a substitute, he's a Rich Hill or Javy Lopez substitute, and definitely not the only LHP in the bullpen.

 

[mabrowndog]

Crazy to see Layne as a Miller substitute,  Has possibilities as a Breslow substitute.

 
Uhhh... I already said the same thing in my opening post. But hey, thanks for reading the whole thread and regurgitating my own thoughts back to me as some sort of counterargument.
 
In my response to Plympton, I'm really saying that the Sox bringing Miller back is more of a pipe dream than many realize. He's going to cash in big time, as well he should. And Boston isn't going to do both of (a) QO/extension for Koji and (b) re-signing Miller at market value. Really, any discussion of the 2015 bullpen that includes Miller is wishful thinking.

 

[Plympton91]

I think there's a really good chance Miller will be paid like a closer, more in the 3/$28M to 4/$35M range.

He's never been a closer though. That would be a real leap of faith for somebody. What are some comparable contracts to middle relievers that projected to be closers? I'm not recalling any over the past few years. Even established second tier closers like Rodney and Balfour (from Baltimore before the injury was revealed) didn't get that much.

I agree that Layne is at best Breslow insurance. Given Tazawa's ordinariness lately and Mijica's implosion this year, they need to invest in an 8th inning stopper and Koji insurance. If that's not Miller, who is it?

 

[Plympton91]

As I was saying about Tazawa.

 

[joe dokes]

I agree that Layne is at best Breslow insurance. Given Tazawa's ordinariness lately and Mijica's implosion this year, they need to invest in an 8th inning stopper and Koji insurance. If that's not Miller, who is it?

 
Like most quality relief pitching, it is just as likely that someone will emerge from nowhere (someone without the "8th inning stopper" logo tattooed on his ass) as it is that a FA will solve the problem.  And while it could be that "Tazawa's ordinariness lately" actually means something going forward, it's probably a bit premature to base FA decisions on that as a conclusion.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

As everyone was saying about Tazawa.

 
I mean, it was pretty obvious just looking at the box score, never mind watching him struggle

 

[Sprowl]

Layne threw 24 pitches over 1.1 innings against the Mariners, and again showed two distinct arm slots: a 10 o'clock delivery for his slider, fastball and most sinkers, and a 9 o'clock release for 2 curves and 1 sinker. Both curves came later in Ackley's at-bat: 3rd pitch, outside, fouled off; and 6th pitch, further outside, taken for a ball. Ackley grounded into a double play on the 7th pitch, a slider. The sinker was the first pitch to Morales, outside for a ball.
 
Oddly enough, Layne threw two sinkers to Kyle Seager that had even more horizontal movement than the sinker to Morales: the first one to Seager came in low for a ball, and the third one in the strike zone, but called a ball -- one of Vazquez's few lost strikes. When Layne really wants to throw a strike, he usually counts on the slider, which has very little horizontal or vertical movement, like a Brad Lidge slider.