To PE, or not To PE - that is the question

Swedgin

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Can't imagine them doing that, but at the same time, shouldn't the Celtics focus be on trying to find the player who best solves their needs and can contribute to a Championship run. As opposed to trying to pick up some future assets.
Yes, but the opening day roster is not your playoff roster. Not a particular fan of EF, but if he is the only option I would rather Brad make the deal rather than let the TPE expire - provided Wyc is still on board with using the tax payer MLE.

At a minimum Evan is matching salary for a deadline deal and you have an additional pick with which to make said deal. Plus he's a 1/2 of a season closer to being an expiring and could recoup some value. However, if acquiring him rules out using the MLE, then the calculus is different.
 

mcpickl

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They should maximize the TPE. Fournier is overpaid, but he's not a bad player, and while not perfect he is a scorer and ballhandler off the bench, a key need. If you get a 1st with him, you can then use your other TPE, your MLE and that pick to hunt other guys you want. The Celtics are unlikely to make only 1 move this offseason.

I do think they're better off with other TPE options, BUT... Fournier is one of the better players you could add in that TPE, and him coming WITH a pick instead of costing one opens up a lot of other opportunities (like say adding a C with the MLE or Juancho TPE, then using the pick, more picks and some salary (say Theis, Nesmith, etc.) to add another player.

Fournier wouldn't be the top of my list (especially since the pick stapled to him isn't going to be the Knicks' pick), but I'd rather have Fournier and a pick than say.... Jae Crowder. It's all a question of what players are available to fit the TPE and what you have to give up to get them.
Man, just adding Fournier and an MLE guy without sending out any salary would end up costing Wyc about double what he spent on players last year after ringing up the tax bill.

I can't imagine them going anywhere near that high next season.
 

lexrageorge

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Man, just adding Fournier and an MLE guy without sending out any salary would end up costing Wyc about double what he spent on players last year after ringing up the tax bill.

I can't imagine them going anywhere near that high next season.
The comments by Wyc and Brad are consistent with them blowing through the tax threshold.
 

Jimbodandy

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Double though?

I'd bet copious amounts of money against that.
You've been consistent in this belief for quite some time. I doubt that you have to convince anyone here of your seriousness.


That list is thoroughly unexciting anyway. Solid no on Fournier with three years left on that deal. Unlike CD, I'd rather have Jae Crowder. Fournier is junk with a long deal. Even the fucking Knicks know this. KCP and Kuzma are also junk.

Really nobody on that list that excites (except Murray who will be prohibitively expensive), but someone to hold the TPE would be nice. I'd like Burks to hold 10MM of it. Cam Johnson would be lovely also.

Huerter and Markkanen are at least trending in the right direction, but meh. I'd prefer placeholders, not guys with three years left if this is the buffet.
 

mcpickl

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You've been consistent in this belief for quite some time. I doubt that you have to convince anyone here of your seriousness.


That list is thoroughly unexciting anyway. Solid no on Fournier with three years left on that deal. Unlike CD, I'd rather have Jae Crowder. Fournier is junk with a long deal. Even the fucking Knicks know this. KCP and Kuzma are also junk.

Really nobody on that list that excites (except Murray who will be prohibitively expensive), but someone to hold the TPE would be nice. I'd like Burks to hold 10MM of it. Cam Johnson would be lovely also.

Huerter and Markkanen are at least trending in the right direction, but meh. I'd prefer placeholders, not guys with three years left if this is the buffet.
I think they'll spend more this year, but a moderate amount more.

They spent 135M on salaries last year, and Wyc will get somewhere around 10M back as a tax receiver making his total spent 125M.

Adding Fournier and an MLE, cutting all the non guaranteed guys except Hauser and filling the two last spots with rookie minimums would put them at 177.7M. That's 28.7M over the tax. The penalty for that is 80.4M for a total spend of around 257M

125M to 257M would be quite a jump.

I'm expecting them to use the Fournier TPE, but dump Theis off to do it, sign a vet minimum big in his place, and the last 4 spots be minimums. Could also see them push Nesmith off to save a bit more money.

To see how quickly it adds up, I did a quick example of the Celtics adding Doug McDermott with the TPE at 13.75, dropping Theis off on the Spurs, then signing a veteran minimum big, one other veteran minimum non big, and signing two rookie minimums to fill the last two spots.

Even that small upgrade puts the team 13M over the tax for a 23.75M tax penalty, pushing the total spend on that roster to just under 186M, an almost 50% jump over last seasons spend.
 
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Jimbodandy

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I think they'll spend more this year, but a moderate amount more.

They spent 135M on salaries last year, and Wyc will get somewhere around 10M back as a tax receiver making his total spent 125M.

Adding Fournier and an MLE, cutting all the non guaranteed guys except Hauser and filling the two last spots with rookie minimums would put them at 177.7M. That's 28.7M over the tax. The penalty for that is 80.4M for a total spend of around 257M

125M to 257M would be quite a jump.
I'd believe that Wyc needs to be convinced that we have someone who can make "the difference". Fournier isn't that dude, and it's unlikely that any of the MLE are.

Burks at 10MM and Cam Johnson at 6MM, if either or both are available, is a different story than 3/56 (+tax) commitment to a dude that even the Knicks are trying to dump off.
 

Cellar-Door

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You've been consistent in this belief for quite some time. I doubt that you have to convince anyone here of your seriousness.


That list is thoroughly unexciting anyway. Solid no on Fournier with three years left on that deal. Unlike CD, I'd rather have Jae Crowder. Fournier is junk with a long deal. Even the fucking Knicks know this. KCP and Kuzma are also junk.

Really nobody on that list that excites (except Murray who will be prohibitively expensive), but someone to hold the TPE would be nice. I'd like Burks to hold 10MM of it. Cam Johnson would be lovely also.

Huerter and Markkanen are at least trending in the right direction, but meh. I'd prefer placeholders, not guys with three years left if this is the buffet.
Fournier has 2 years left, final year is a club option.

I do wonder what Wyc will pay, but from a purely asset based perspective if they want a ring that's the kind of move you make, as it sets up the next move.

Fournier is definitly not "junk" he is an average player, now that isn't worth 18M a year, but it could be worth more than a similar player if you get an asset, and then use that to make other moves, and you have a nice expiring to use next summer, when Horford is coming off the books.

I think that may be one way that Brad sells Wyc on using the MLE and TPE... that this year you're a contender, and you're set up to let Al walk, but able to replace him without a S&T, meaning this is the spike year, that sets you up to add the new long-term piece that makes you contenders through Tatum's next deal.

Edit- also I think that Theis is likely to be replaced with a cheaper big, which should offset 4-6M.


I think Fournier is unlikely, but I see the appeal, it's about getting the assets tagged to him, and him being a useful piece if wildly overpaid.
 

Jimbodandy

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Fournier has 2 years left, final year is a club option.

I do wonder what Wyc will pay, but from a purely asset based perspective if they want a ring that's the kind of move you make, as it sets up the next move.

Fournier is definitly not "junk" he is an average player, now that isn't worth 18M a year, but it could be worth more than a similar player if you get an asset, and then use that to make other moves, and you have a nice expiring to use next summer, when Horford is coming off the books.

I think that may be one way that Brad sells Wyc on using the MLE and TPE... that this year you're a contender, and you're set up to let Al walk, but able to replace him without a S&T, meaning this is the spike year, that sets you up to add the new long-term piece that makes you contenders through Tatum's next deal.

Edit- also I think that Theis is likely to be replaced with a cheaper big, which should offset 4-6M.


I think Fournier is unlikely, but I see the appeal, it's about getting the assets tagged to him, and him being a useful piece if wildly overpaid.

Hadn't noticed that year 3 is club option, sorry. That changes everything IMO. Easier to unload/upgrade. That's a placeholder.

This is Fournier similarity chart. Eek. Funny that Bibby pops up, as another guy with good counting numbers here and there and gross advanced stats. DARKO (mostly below, occasionally slightly above league average) and BBRef (career 0.8 BPM) agree on him.

52749
 

Eddie Jurak

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Can't imagine them doing that, but at the same time, shouldn't the Celtics focus be on trying to find the player who best solves their needs and can contribute to a Championship run. As opposed to trying to pick up some future assets.
Stevens has traded Celtics first round picks in each of the past 2 years (the Horford and White deals), and the Celtics reportedly tried to move back into the first round of this year's draft but were unable to make a deal. So he may want the first to have more flexibility around the draft.

Also, any significant trade to add talent that Stevens makes in the future will likely involve sending out draft picks, so picking up a first could just help to facilitate a future deal - and allow them to avoid running into the Stepien rule.
I'm expecting them to use the Fournier TPE, but dump Theis off to do it, sign a vet minimum big in his place, and the last 4 spots be minimums. Could also see them push Nesmith off to save a bit more money.
Right or wrong that is seriously pessimistic. There's enough of a role here for Theis (given Rob's injury history, Al's age, and the shortened offseason) that replacing him with a vet minimum big would have a negative impact. Theis salary also has value to the Celtics for salary matching purposes. If they add center depth through other deals (the TPE or MLE) then I could see them moving Theis but not otherwise. Wwe'll see.
Fournier has 2 years left, final year is a club option.

I do wonder what Wyc will pay, but from a purely asset based perspective if they want a ring that's the kind of move you make, as it sets up the next move.

Fournier is definitly not "junk" he is an average player, now that isn't worth 18M a year, but it could be worth more than a similar player if you get an asset, and then use that to make other moves, and you have a nice expiring to use next summer, when Horford is coming off the books.
It would have been good to have him around 2 weeks ago, even though the fit would not have been perfect. Not my ideal scenario but not crazy.
 

Senator Donut

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The Knicks are discussing salary dumping Nerlens Noel to the Clippers in to the Ibaka TPE. I think it’s notable for two reasons. Ballmer is capped out eternally but has an essentially unlimited money spigot from his MSFT dividends, so he’s not going to let the TPE expire worthless. It’s a crazy reality that players are now getting salary dumped to (repeater?) tax teams. It also suggests that the trade options aren’t great for Ibaka’s $9.7 million TPE and the Celtics could be in a competitive market to use their two big exceptions. Conversely, it might be easier for the Knicks to clear cap space than I originally thought.

View: https://twitter.com/mikeascotto/status/1541777093427695619
 

PedroKsBambino

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There's no way to know on these things, of course, but I do not think that item really says much about the TPE market because it doesn't discuss what asset might be attached (if any). "Discussed taking Noel into exception" if it's a pure salary dump is very different than "discussed taking Noel into exception for 1-2 picks" and while I don't think anyone is dealing a lot for him, there are incentives for Knicks to leak that there's a market for him.

So, we'll see. I do think Kyrie opting in and, if it happens, Beal resigning slightly reduces the TPE value because it reduces (slightly/somewhat) the teams trying to free up space but that is primarily at the margin....there's plenty of bad contracts out there and the question is whether Celtics have approval "to spend $17 mil to keep slot alive" essentially or "to spend up to $17 mil if there's a real asset who will definitely help" level approval.
 

lovegtm

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There's no way to know on these things, of course, but I do not think that item really says much about the TPE market because it doesn't discuss what asset might be attached (if any). "Discussed taking Noel into exception" if it's a pure salary dump is very different than "discussed taking Noel into exception for 1-2 picks" and while I don't think anyone is dealing a lot for him, there are incentives for Knicks to leak that there's a market for him.

So, we'll see. I do think Kyrie opting in and, if it happens, Beal resigning slightly reduces the TPE value because it reduces (slightly/somewhat) the teams trying to free up space but that is primarily at the margin....there's plenty of bad contracts out there and the question is whether Celtics have approval "to spend $17 mil to keep slot alive" essentially or "to spend up to $17 mil if there's a real asset who will definitely help" level approval.
Worst case, they'd do what they did with JRich: take a marginal guy who matches the exception into the exception in order to extend it.

They then immediately extended him, which was probably motivated partly by wanting to keep the salary slot through this summer.
 

Jimbodandy

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The Knicks are discussing salary dumping Nerlens Noel to the Clippers in to the Ibaka TPE. I think it’s notable for two reasons. Ballmer is capped out eternally but has an essentially unlimited money spigot from his MSFT dividends, so he’s not going to let the TPE expire worthless. It’s a crazy reality that players are now getting salary dumped to (repeater?) tax teams. It also suggests that the trade options aren’t great for Ibaka’s $9.7 million TPE and the Celtics could be in a competitive market to use their two big exceptions. Conversely, it might be easier for the Knicks to clear cap space than I originally thought.

View: https://twitter.com/mikeascotto/status/1541777093427695619
I know that on the surface this can be dismissed as Ballmer spending like a drunken sailor to win, but I don't think that it's that simple.

Teams are trying to take advantage of the age-old "market inefficiencies". Right now, there are so many teams looking to make non-basketball decisions because of salary reasons, whether they're worried about clearing space for a big ticket item or taking a loss on a redundant asset to complete the roster a little better. It's not a buyer's market where the cap went down or anything like that. It's more like teams suddenly realized that they have too many overpriced assets and need to balance their ledgers a little better IMO. So...that leads to some teams moving valuable but overpriced assets for less than normal market value and the recipient teams gaining valuable assets for only cash.

We should absolutely be looking to cash in on this phenomenon, although it would be wishcasting to expect Wyc to go full Ballmer. If the right people become available for cash only or picks and cash, this is a good time to add talent. Most years, finding talent to add to over-the-cap teams is hard.
 

JakeRae

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I don’t think “preserving” the TPE has that much value unless you think ownership it willing to go into Warriors territory on payroll. They are going to be adding at least a taxpayer MLE deal this offseason, taking them to about $14 million into the tax. They would likely go further next year as any reductions in salary from Horford and Theis will likely balance against increased salary for Jaylen and Grant. They have contracts across pretty much all levels too. Also, the Richardson deal made sense because they got a decent player on a fair contract. If we can use the TPE for such a player, it obviously makes sense to do so outside of spending constraints that may or may not exist. But using it just to use it doesn’t really make sense and isn’t necessary given the different tax position of the team now v. a year ago.
 

Auger34

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The Knicks are discussing salary dumping Nerlens Noel to the Clippers in to the Ibaka TPE. I think it’s notable for two reasons. Ballmer is capped out eternally but has an essentially unlimited money spigot from his MSFT dividends, so he’s not going to let the TPE expire worthless. It’s a crazy reality that players are now getting salary dumped to (repeater?) tax teams. It also suggests that the trade options aren’t great for Ibaka’s $9.7 million TPE and the Celtics could be in a competitive market to use their two big exceptions. Conversely, it might be easier for the Knicks to clear cap space than I originally thought.

View: https://twitter.com/mikeascotto/status/1541777093427695619
Im guessing it’s Nerlens plus picks because the Knicks had to staple a pick to Kemba to get rid of his $8M salary so I highly doubt they’ll be able to move Noel without attaching something of value to him
 

Auger34

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I don’t think “preserving” the TPE has that much value unless you think ownership it willing to go into Warriors territory on payroll. They are going to be adding at least a taxpayer MLE deal this offseason, taking them to about $14 million into the tax. They would likely go further next year as any reductions in salary from Horford and Theis will likely balance against increased salary for Jaylen and Grant. They have contracts across pretty much all levels too. Also, the Richardson deal made sense because they got a decent player on a fair contract. If we can use the TPE for such a player, it obviously makes sense to do so outside of spending constraints that may or may not exist. But using it just to use it doesn’t really make sense and isn’t necessary given the different tax position of the team now v. a year ago.
If the Clippers aren’t going to deal one of Powell or Kennard (or Morris or Covington) for cap purposes, that takes one of the obvious TPE avenues away.

We’ve gone over the Knicks options, apparently Charlotte is considering dumping salary to improve their offer for Bridges. I’m not sure of any other teams really trying to move off of salary…if the Wizards decide to get rid of some payroll, KCP would definitely be near the top of my list

I think Kevin Huerter remains the best and most obvious option but would Brad have to deal a real asset (like a 1st round pick) to get him? If yes, I’m not sure id waste a potential bullet for a big move on Huerter…ideally the price would be something like Pritchard and a couple of 2nds but that seems pretty light
 

Jimbodandy

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If the Clippers aren’t going to deal one of Powell or Kennard (or Morris or Covington) for cap purposes, that takes one of the obvious TPE avenues away.

We’ve gone over the Knicks options, apparently Charlotte is considering dumping salary to improve their offer for Bridges. I’m not sure of any other teams really trying to move off of salary…if the Wizards decide to get rid of some payroll, KCP would definitely be near the top of my list

I think Kevin Huerter remains the best and most obvious option but would Brad have to deal a real asset (like a 1st round pick) to get him? If yes, I’m not sure id waste a potential bullet for a big move on Huerter…ideally the price would be something like Pritchard and a couple of 2nds but that seems pretty light
If they want to move Huerter for money reasons and if we don't have better options, I'm not sending any assets of value (even Pritchard). I'd probably want to get assets.

Huerter is negative on both ends of the court by BPM and about a neutral DARKO (.5 off, -.5 def roughly). 4/65 is no bueno for that. If he had a couple of seasons over 40%, I could see some love for that maybe. He's slightly above average 3PT, not particularly tall, and not good at either end.
 

lovegtm

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If they want to move Huerter for money reasons and if we don't have better options, I'm not sending any assets of value (even Pritchard). I'd probably want to get assets.

Huerter is negative on both ends of the court by BPM and about a neutral DARKO (.5 off, -.5 def roughly). 4/65 is no bueno for that. If he had a couple of seasons over 40%, I could see some love for that maybe. He's slightly above average 3PT, not particularly tall, and not good at either end.
The Celtics are a really good fit for what he does, however, and he's a decent athlete. You don't get a shot at a guy like that for light assets unless there are question marks.
 

lovegtm

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I don’t think “preserving” the TPE has that much value unless you think ownership it willing to go into Warriors territory on payroll. They are going to be adding at least a taxpayer MLE deal this offseason, taking them to about $14 million into the tax. They would likely go further next year as any reductions in salary from Horford and Theis will likely balance against increased salary for Jaylen and Grant. They have contracts across pretty much all levels too. Also, the Richardson deal made sense because they got a decent player on a fair contract. If we can use the TPE for such a player, it obviously makes sense to do so outside of spending constraints that may or may not exist. But using it just to use it doesn’t really make sense and isn’t necessary given the different tax position of the team now v. a year ago.
Just a quick correction: Jaylen is still on his current deal in 23-24.
 

Jimbodandy

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The Celtics are a really good fit for what he does, however, and he's a decent athlete. You don't get a shot at a guy like that for light assets unless there are question marks.
I hear you, and I get the interest based on the scouting viewpoint. And you're not getting studs with the TPE, even in a buyer's market. Wood is probably the best salary dump guy this offseason, and even he has people wondering why people don't want Christian Wood around.

Pros: One sees a guy with decent height and a reported max vert of 38". He was on a poor (not abysmal but poor) defensive team in Atlanta. He's probably available. He fits the slot. His offensive DARKO curve is a straight upward trend from -2.0 to 0.5.
Cons: Huerter is a hell of a commitment in years. He should be better than he is. Big negative net ratings. Negative DARKO defensively. Both offense and defense BPM negative. OBPM trending like the DARKO (up), while DBPM also trending like the D-DPM (flat, zero improvement).

So if you're buying (not you, all Huerter-stans), you either think that his offense is worth it and trending up and offsets the below average defense, or you think that he might learn defense in a place that actually plays defense (Boston). Both of those positions are defensible but come with 65MM of risk and opportunity cost.

I'm honestly more worried about the opportunity cost, but maybe that's too many years of Almost-Trader Danny PTSD.
 

JakeRae

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Just a quick correction: Jaylen is still on his current deal in 23-24.
This is correct. I had read something from some reliable source about negotiating an extension with him and assumed that meant he only had one year left, but it was speculation about an extension this fall, not this summer. That does alter my point a little bit in that we do have some flexibility to spend through next season via the TPE without going too deep into the cap, especially with an anticipated reduction in salary for Horford. But I still think preserving salary slots really isn’t a thing for us anymore given that we should be at least $14 million or so into the tax this year without touching the TPEs. I do wonder whether Brad would be allowed to add both a $15+ million player and use the taxpayer MLE or if he only has license to go to like $20 million over the tax threshold and will need to be judicious in how he uses that. My guess is that ownership would be ok spending more for a clear upgrade but might draw the line at taking on a lot of salary for someone who isn’t going to actively help us win.
 

mcpickl

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Right or wrong that is seriously pessimistic. There's enough of a role here for Theis (given Rob's injury history, Al's age, and the shortened offseason) that replacing him with a vet minimum big would have a negative impact. Theis salary also has value to the Celtics for salary matching purposes. If they add center depth through other deals (the TPE or MLE) then I could see them moving Theis but not otherwise. Wwe'll see.
I agree Theis has a role here as injury insurance, and replacing him with a vet minimum big would have a negative impact.

I just think you have to make choices because I don't think there is going to be unlimited spending.

So I'd make the choice to tighten the belt on my tenth man, and spend my money to upgrade my nine man rotation.

In the scenario I presented above, keeping Theis instead of a vet minimum big would cost the Celtics an extra 28.25M(7M in salary+21.25M in tax payments)

That's more than you're paying Al Horford next year. That's excessive for that role.
 

chilidawg

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I hear you, and I get the interest based on the scouting viewpoint. And you're not getting studs with the TPE, even in a buyer's market. Wood is probably the best salary dump guy this offseason, and even he has people wondering why people don't want Christian Wood around.

Pros: One sees a guy with decent height and a reported max vert of 38". He was on a poor (not abysmal but poor) defensive team in Atlanta. He's probably available. He fits the slot. His offensive DARKO curve is a straight upward trend from -2.0 to 0.5.
Cons: Huerter is a hell of a commitment in years. He should be better than he is. Big negative net ratings. Negative DARKO defensively. Both offense and defense BPM negative. OBPM trending like the DARKO (up), while DBPM also trending like the D-DPM (flat, zero improvement).

So if you're buying (not you, all Huerter-stans), you either think that his offense is worth it and trending up and offsets the below average defense, or you think that he might learn defense in a place that actually plays defense (Boston). Both of those positions are defensible but come with 65MM of risk and opportunity cost.

I'm honestly more worried about the opportunity cost, but maybe that's too many years of Almost-Trader Danny PTSD.
Nice Huerter summary. If Fournier comes with an asset and is a shorter commitment, doesn't he make sense over Huerter? They sound like similar players.
 

Jimbodandy

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Nice Huerter summary. If Fournier comes with an asset and is a shorter commitment, doesn't he make sense over Huerter? They sound like similar players.
Thanks.

To me Huerter has upside and will probably be a better player than Fournier the next two years. But the years difference is material, and a 1st coming with Fournier should really make it a no brainer.

But if folks do see big upside with Huerter in a better system, I get it. It seems like a risky bet to me. Fournier has no upside, so it's a dice roll on a guy you want vs. placeholder depth plus potentially a cost controlled future first.
 

ehaz

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I hear you, and I get the interest based on the scouting viewpoint. And you're not getting studs with the TPE, even in a buyer's market. Wood is probably the best salary dump guy this offseason, and even he has people wondering why people don't want Christian Wood around.

Pros: One sees a guy with decent height and a reported max vert of 38". He was on a poor (not abysmal but poor) defensive team in Atlanta. He's probably available. He fits the slot. His offensive DARKO curve is a straight upward trend from -2.0 to 0.5.
Cons: Huerter is a hell of a commitment in years. He should be better than he is. Big negative net ratings. Negative DARKO defensively. Both offense and defense BPM negative. OBPM trending like the DARKO (up), while DBPM also trending like the D-DPM (flat, zero improvement).

So if you're buying (not you, all Huerter-stans), you either think that his offense is worth it and trending up and offsets the below average defense, or you think that he might learn defense in a place that actually plays defense (Boston). Both of those positions are defensible but come with 65MM of risk and opportunity cost.

I'm honestly more worried about the opportunity cost, but maybe that's too many years of Almost-Trader Danny PTSD.
I'm not going to pretend to understand the advanced defensive metrics so correct me if I'm wrong but isn't part of his bad DARKO D-DPM whatever the fact that he plays next to Trae Young and for an awful defensive team? I don't know how true this is, but I've also read from Hawks fans that Huerter primarily guarded the opposing team's best player in 2020/2021 (Hunter missed 60 games) and did a decent job all things considered. Guarding a team's better scorer when you're the least terrible option on a horrible defensive team is pretty different from being easily the worst defender in any lineup like he would be on the Cs.

Edit - I also remember Huerter getting some praise for how he defended against the Sixers last playoffs:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RJuQBvRN8P4
 

Jimbodandy

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I'm not going to pretend to understand the advanced defensive metrics so correct me if I'm wrong but isn't part of his bad DARKO D-DPM whatever the fact that he plays next to Trae Young and for an awful defensive team? I don't know how true this is, but I've also read from Hawks fans that Huerter primarily guarded the opposing team's best player in 2020/2021 (Hunter missed 60 games) and did a decent job all things considered. Guarding a team's better scorer when you're the least terrible option on a horrible defensive team is pretty different from being easily the worst defender in any lineup like he would be on the Cs.

Edit - I also remember Huerter getting some praise for how he defended against the Sixers last playoffs:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RJuQBvRN8P4
I'd love for some folks who understand them better than I to weigh in, but it seems like a few possible factors in play.

1. Huerter could be a guy who's fine or good on-ball but a space shot or no BBIQ off-ball. These guys are everywhere, and the defensive metrics always "seem low" on them. Jaylen is an example of another. Maybe Kevin's TRex arms hurt him there.
2. You're absolutely correct that it's hard to unpack teammates numbers from individuals. We've seen folks ranked higher or lower than the eyeball test only to return to earth or rise in a different system. It's hard to tell. I think that DARKO does the best at regressing, but they all try and succeed to some level (most do anyway).
3. Reports of Huerter's good defense could be exaggerated. Kid tries hard and maybe strings together some nice possessions. In all honesty he's never stood out one way or the other to me, so he's probably in the middle of the curve somewhere. He's certainly not Duncan Robinson or Trae bad.

The BBRef and DARKO numbers say that he's below average, not awful.

If he's the guy that ends up here, Brad and Ime think that there's a defender in there.
 

benhogan

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I'd love for some folks who understand them better than I to weigh in, but it seems like a few possible factors in play.
2. You're absolutely correct that it's hard to unpack teammates numbers from individuals. We've seen folks ranked higher or lower than the eyeball test only to return to earth or rise in a different system. It's hard to tell. I think that DARKO does the best at regressing, but they all try and succeed to some level (most do anyway).

3. Reports of Huerter's good defense could be exaggerated. Kid tries hard and maybe strings together some nice possessions. In all honesty he's never stood out one way or the other to me, so he's probably in the middle of the curve somewhere. He's certainly not Duncan Robinson or Trae bad.

The BBRef and DARKO numbers say that he's below average, not awful.

If he's the guy that ends up here, Brad and Ime think that there's a defender in there.
Good post

especially #2. I'm a firm believer that one really bad defender (ie Trae or Kemba) has a knock-on effect on every other player's defense (rating). It constantly puts units in rotation/scramble mode, leading to bad habits and little defensive structure to operate under.
 

Euclis20

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Good post

especially #2. I'm a firm believer that one really bad defender (ie Trae or Kemba) has a knock-on effect on every other player's defense (rating). It constantly puts units in rotation/scramble mode, leading to bad habits and little defensive structure to operate under.
This isn't too bad in the regular season (Boston was 4th and 13th in Def. Rating with IT, 1st and 7th with Kyrie and 4th and 14th with Kemba, then 2nd this year), but it definitely can kill you in the playoffs.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Jimbodandy

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Good post

especially #2. I'm a firm believer that one really bad defender (ie Trae or Kemba) has a knock-on effect on every other player's defense (rating). It constantly puts units in rotation/scramble mode, leading to bad habits and little defensive structure to operate under.
Thanks!

Agreed. We saw it with good defenses pumping up guys like Amir too. The famous RPM wars...never forget. DARKO is better (much better), but it will always be hard.

We spent some ink on this guy in the past few weeks, but he's another example of a guy who probably grew defensively and (mostly) became a better defender on a defensive team.

52796
 

benhogan

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This isn't too bad in the regular season (Boston was 4th and 13th in Def. Rating with IT, 1st and 7th with Kyrie and 4th and 14th with Kemba, then 2nd this year), but it definitely can kill you in the playoffs.
+1. You can kind of get away with the smurfs more in the regular season against undisciplined/lottery team offenses (although IT, Kyries', and Kembas' following years trended poorly).

Playoff teams don't operate that way when the pace slows down to a half-court game. Hunting Season is Open.

Back to Huerter. It's probably hard to gauge, by metrics, how good/bad his defense is when playing a lot of minutes with Gallo, Lou Will and Ice Trae. I honestly don't know.

Agree with Jimbo that if Huerter ends up here IME/Brad have it figured out.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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+1. You can kind of get away with the smurfs more in the regular season against undisciplined/lottery team offenses (although IT, Kyries', and Kembas' following years trended poorly).

Playoff teams don't operate that way when the pace slows down to a half-court game. Hunting Season is Open.

Back to Huerter. It's probably hard to gauge, by metrics, how good/bad his defense is when playing a lot of minutes with Gallo, Lou Will and Ice Trae. I honestly don't know.

Agree with Jimbo that if Huerter ends up here IME/Brad have it figured out.
I may be overstating it but my recollection of those IT teams is that it required just an insane work rate from every other guy on the floor to compensate. But they had the personnel to compete like that through the fall and winter even though they were undersized at the other positions too. AB/Crowder/Amir/Smart/ET all getting after it with fast double team + recover any time an opponent decided to attack IT aggressively. Kind of a prototype of the kind of the defensive core they’ve built now, but better (AB was a freaking animal against guards but less switchy)

It was impressive to watch and must have been exhausting. But it’s the reason the last couple years (before 2022 Celtics came to town) had me yearning for those low-talent max-effort teams. It wasn’t until now that the team was truly able to blend high-talent and high-effort into a defensive monster.
 

kazuneko

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With all the best options rapidly disappearing, is there any reason Brad can’t at least get back Josh Richardson with the TPE? No way Sam Antonio has much need for him, and he’s probably about as good a 3+D guy we could hope for now.
 

Cellar-Door

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With all the best options rapidly disappearing, is there any reason Brad can’t at least get back Josh Richardson with the TPE? No way Sam Antonio has much need for him, and he’s probably about as good a 3+D guy we could hope for now.
no options for the TPE have disappeared.
 

Cellar-Door

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But they sent out matching salaries, right? So, overall impact should be negligible.
They took back about 125%, plus they will have to fill spots with minimum deals which makes it the same as not trading the end of bench guys.

Marks had this as increasing the tax from 7.5M to around 30M
 

Jed Zeppelin

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With Huerter off the board I think it’s much more likely now that any TPE deal uses only a portion of it. But maybe depends if they have any interesting things cooking on the ring-chaser/vet non front.

But who knows maybe they just go nuts.
 

lovegtm

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Feeling fine even if the TPE expires. It's a nice tool to add salary without giving up pieces, but the Brogdon deal let them add salary without giving up pieces.

I'd still like to use part of it for a backup big if they can't get Bryant with the minimum, but using the whole thing just to use it seems pointless.
 

radsoxfan

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The TPE is for when deals like Brogdon don't come along, or you don't have the salaries to match.

Good option to have, but now that Brad has made his move, probably no need for it anymore.
 

pjheff

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Feeling fine even if the TPE expires. It's a nice tool to add salary without giving up pieces, but the Brogdon deal let them add salary without giving up pieces.

I'd still like to use part of it for a backup big if they can't get Bryant with the minimum, but using the whole thing just to use it seems pointless.
The TPE is for when deals like Brogdon don't come along, or you don't have the salaries to match.

Good option to have, but now that Brad has made his move, probably no need for it anymore.
Is there value in adding a midsized contract even if only as ballast in a deal at the deadline?

Could the TPE be used to help facilitate Durant for Ayton?
 

lovegtm

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Is there value in adding a midsized contract even if only as ballast in a deal at the deadline?

Could the TPE be used to help facilitate Durant for Ayton?
It could help facilitate for Ayton, since the receiving team in an S&T would be hardcapped, and might need to dump salary to stay under.

The problem is that that incoming 17M would cost the Celtics ~60M in luxury tax payments, so I don't think any draft compensation they got would be worth it. As Keith Smith said, there's tax, and then there's TAX.

Ballast for the deadline makes some sense, if it was like 5-10M, but you're going to have to pay another team to take that ballast at the deadline if you don't use it and don't want to pay tax on it.
 

Eddie Jurak

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If the Celtics were to make a player for player deal in the next couple of weeks, they would likely try to structure it as taking a player into the Fournier TPE and shipping the player out to create a new, smaller TPE.
 

benhogan

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This chart will help visualize the difference between paying tax and paying TAX. Going from $15 million over to $30 million over more than triples the tax.

+1
thanks for posting the TAX table

At this point its understandable to let the $17M TPE expire (Wyc's money and all).

Brogdon is more significant than any TPE that could have been realistically envisioned (Burks, Huerter, Duncan, MaMo, Kennard). None of them have the ballhandling/initiating skills of MB

Brad needed to add 2 vets to the core 8. Done

Just add a fungible 5 on a vet min. Bryant would be a good gamble, but there are several others.

They also have 2 decent sized TPEs they could use after New Year for flexibility purposes
 

NomarsFool

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Unfortunately, the Celtics' frontcourt (which was already a weakness) if even weaker now without Theis. I think the Celtics shouldn't be planning on more than 60 games each for TL and AH next season. They need someone else who can play a reasonable number of minutes - at least in the regular season. If they are willing to scrap 2BIGS that becomes less of an issue, but they haven't said that at the moment.
 

gammoseditor

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