To PE, or not To PE - that is the question

[NomarsFool]

So, one of the biggest decisions POBOBS has to make this Summer is what, if anything, to do with the Founier TPE. It's a decision he will have to make relatively quickly, as I believe the exception expires on July 18th. So, he's got less than a month to see if there is a player out there that fits into the $17.1 exception, that would benefit the team, at a cost that the team is willing to pay (both in regards to the asset required to obtain that player (if any) and the luxury tax implications of said player).

 

[mcpickl]

I'd be stunned if they didn't use it.

They traded a 2nd round pick for it, then chose not to use it in the White trade to leave the option of adding a bigger salary now.

Unless Wyc told them you can't go over the tax this year, which I'd guess is highly unlikely, I'd put their odds of using it around 97%

 

[BigSoxFan]

They have to use it. No easy way to improve the team without using it. We don’t have a lot of expendable salary.

 

[ehaz]

I'd love for them to use it on Kevin Huerter. I could see Huerter playing a Herro-ish role off the bench. No idea what ATL would want (but they did just draft AJ Griffin).

 

[PedroKsBambino]

I'd guess that if all else (e.g. upgrade types who require sending out an asset) fails, they will just take on a salary dump opportunity late--Duncan Robinson/Kennard/Fournier himself being some examples....guys who add a bit of value and are overpaid and who also keep alive the 'salary slot'

A complexity for them is that the Kyrie thing creates a lot of uncertainty, not so much because of Kyrie but because if Kyrie wants out and thus Durant is available there are a lot of teams who might make a play there. So there's a lot of permutations to work through.

 

[NomarsFool]

Some options from Celtics blog:

Kyle Kuzma (2 years left)
Marcus Morris
Duncan Robinson (his contract runs through the 2025-2026 season, that makes it highly unlikely to me)
Jordan Clarkson (2 years left)

 

[Van Everyman]

So, one of the biggest decisions POBOBS has to make this Summer is what, if anything, to do with the Founier TPE. It's a decision he will have to make relatively quickly, as I believe the exception expires on July 18th. So, he's got less than a month to see if there is a player out there that fits into the $17.1 exception, that would benefit the team, at a cost that the team is willing to pay (both in regards to the asset required to obtain that player (if any) and the luxury tax implications of said player).

How does the TPE work exactly?

 

[Cellar-Door]

Alec Burks as I've said in other threads is the one I want. Perfect fit and 2/20 is a great deal. Also leaves you $7M to play with.. $7.6 or so if you make the deal before the year turns over.

Ooh some sneaky guys if you do it in the next week....

Aaron Gordon (unlikely)
Norm Powell (unlikely)

 

[Cellar-Door]

How does the TPE work exactly?

At it's most basic, you can take on salary up to the TPE (plus $100k) without having to match it even if over the cap. So where normally in order for a team to take salary in without cap space they have to send matching (within 125%) salary back, with a TPE, you can just eat the contract.

 

[Devizier]

I wonder if the Celtics could pry David Nwaba. Maybe Houston wants to hang on to him as a glue guy, but he’s relatively old for that roster. Would be a useful wing defender. Won’t help the bench scoring though.

 

[Van Everyman]

At it's most basic, you can take on salary up to the TPE (plus $100k) without having to match it even if over the cap. So where normally in order for a team to take salary in without cap space they have to send matching (within 125%) salary back, with a TPE, you can just eat the contract.

Thanks. And we can do that because of how Fournier signed with the Knicks? Did we send them a second round pick? Sorry if this is remedial, as much as I’ve read about the TPE with Fournier, I’ve never read a good summary of how it works.

 

[128]

Alec Burks as I've said in other threads is the one I want. Perfect fit and 2/20 is a great deal. Also leaves you $7M to play with.. $7.6 or so if you make the deal before the year turns over.

Burks is recovering from his fifth lower extremity surgery in the past seven years and won't be cleared before training camp, according to reports.

If healthy, he'd be a nice fit, but it would be a roll of the dice.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Thanks. And we can do that because of how Fournier signed with the Knicks? Did we send them a second round pick? Sorry if this is remedial, as much as I’ve read about the TPE with Fournier, I’ve never read a good summary of how it works.

yeah, it can be complicated, but if you trade a player and get no salary back, you create a TPE that lasts for one year. Sometimes this happens in trades of multiple players, because it is structured not as a single trade, but multiple simultaneous trades.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Some options from Celtics blog:

Kyle Kuzma (2 years left)
Marcus Morris
Duncan Robinson (his contract runs through the 2025-2026 season, that makes it highly unlikely to me)
Jordan Clarkson (2 years left)

To even think about Robinson, the Heat would need to throw in assets.

 

[radsoxfan]

I'd love for them to use it on Kevin Huerter. I could see Huerter playing a Herro-ish role off the bench. No idea what ATL would want (but they did just draft AJ Griffin).

I suppose I want them to use it but the options are underwhelming.

The Herro comp isn't bad for Huerter, but unfortunately neither one is very good.

 

[chilidawg]

I suppose I want them to use it but the options are underwhelming.

The Herro comp isn't bad for Huerter, but unfortunately neither one is very good.

I've always thought Herro was overrated.

 

[PRabbit]

A guy that was already here earlier in the year. SA has a glut of wings that need minutes to develop, so why not bring back Richardson? Yes, I see the need for more scoring off the bench, but I don't want to see a guy who can get hunted out there for 20-25 a game either.

 

[radsoxfan]

I've always thought Herro was overrated.

100% overrated.

He's fine as a bench guy and I would welcome him at the end of our rotation, but he offers nothing other than streaky scoring.

 

[NomarsFool]

Richardson certainly provides some depth and knows the system and the team, so a lot of positives there. Does he provide enough difference to what we already have, though? In other words, whose minutes does he take? I’d like to see less PP, less Grant, less Theis, does Richardson help with any of those objectives? Can he get us a bucket when Tatum is on the bench?

 

[lovegtm]

Richardson certainly provides some depth and knows the system and the team, so a lot of positives there. Does he provide enough difference to what we already have, though? In other words, whose minutes does he take? I’d like to see less PP, less Grant, less Theis, does Richardson help with any of those objectives? Can he get us a bucket when Tatum is on the bench?

I think he'd be an ok TPE use if nothing materializes, just to be salary and depth.

I don't really believe in his 3-point shot or playmaking, so he's not super-high on the list. However, he's a very solid rotation player, and he'd get minutes.

 

[PRabbit]

Richardson certainly provides some depth and knows the system and the team, so a lot of positives there. Does he provide enough difference to what we already have, though? In other words, whose minutes does he take? I’d like to see less PP, less Grant, less Theis, does Richardson help with any of those objectives? Can he get us a bucket when Tatum is on the bench?

Maybe I'm thinking too much towards risk aversion, as Richardson is too streaky to say for sure he'd add any scoring punch, but I don't want to see anyone we add damage the integrity of the rotation on D. I don't see many 3-and-D wings available that wouldn't cost too much in assets. Give White/Smart all the PG minutes assuming health if you want less PP, Josh is the primary backup for the Jay's.

And I have no idea who we could get at a reasonable price that would reduce Grant/Theis minutes. Who's available at the 4/5 that can switch on D and not suck on offense? Any ring chasers?

I'm just saying the last time the C's had a squad this good defensively, banner 17 went up. I'd rather not waste that.

 

[BaseballJones]

100% overrated.

He's fine as a bench guy and I would welcome him at the end of our rotation, but he offers nothing other than streaky scoring.

The Celtics sure as hell could have used some streaky scoring in the NBA finals.

 

[benhogan]

Richardson certainly provides some depth and knows the system and the team, so a lot of positives there. Does he provide enough difference to what we already have, though? In other words, whose minutes does he take? I’d like to see less PP, less Grant, less Theis, does Richardson help with any of those objectives? Can he get us a bucket when Tatum is on the bench?

There should be plenty of minutes available during the regular season/playoffs. Adding talent via the TPE will help with Injuries, load mgmt, & matchups all season long. Championship runs are a war of attrition if nothing else. IMO Tatum was worn down by the end, I'm firmly a Wiggins DPOY denier.

So while rotations tighten in elimination games you need to have 9-10 healthy to go in the playoffs. Going into next season that means not depending on PP, Nesmith, Hauser to be 8-10. If those 3 get there by the end of next season, great, but Brad needs to add 2 vets that exceed those guys at the moment. JRich qualifies for that and would be an excellent pick-up. Brad also has two $6-7M TPEs (via Dennis and Juancho) to use when other teams start to tank.

Right now the roster has ~4 rotation spots and a two-way open (JD has one?). The TPE + MLE should add two players that can slide into the top 10 rotation. Vet mins can fill out the rest of the roster, with the flexibility of those 2 in-season opportunistic TPEs

Yep, spend those shekels that ownership collected from being a non-taxpayer over the last decade.

https://celticswire.usatoday.com/lists/nba-boston-celtics-2022-traded-playewr-exception-tpe/

 

[PedroKsBambino]

How eager do we imagine Knicks are to clear space? Burks and Reddish combined fit into the exceptoin, and while there's questions on both it's an interesting way to use the slot---and to both add guys who can do something for the team and keep alive salary slots.

 

[lovegtm]

How eager do we imagine Knicks are to clear space? Burks and Reddish combined fit into the exceptoin, and while there's questions on both it's an interesting way to use the slot---and to both add guys who can do something for the team and keep alive salary slots.

I'm guessing that, at the least, the team has some fallback deals like that lined up to preserve the salary slot.

 

[benhogan]

Hollinger is speculating that the NYK will staple a pick to either Burks, Noel, or EF (all signed last summer)

By trading the 11th pick and also dumping Walker’s contract, New York is $8.5 million below the salary cap, presuming it keeps Mitchell Robinson’s Bird Rights on the books (at a pittance of $1.77 million, they’d be crazy not to). That room increases to $13.6 million if they waive Taj Gibson’s non-guaranteed deal. However, to chase free-agent target Jalen Brunson, they likely need to use one of the firsts from the Thunder trade to incentivize a team to take Alec Burks, Nerlens Noel and/or Evan Fournier.

 

[NoXInNixon]

For some reason the Spurs seem to want to get rid of Dejuante Murray. They want three firsts. Marcus Smart is worth a first, so him plus 2023 and 2025 should be in the ballpark.

 

[TripleOT]

For some reason the Spurs seem to want to get rid of Dejuante Murray. They want three firsts. Marcus Smart is worth a first, so him plus 2023 and 2025 should be in the ballpark.

How about fitting him into the EF trade exemption, along with three number one picks?

 

[NoXInNixon]

How about fitting him into the EF trade exemption, along with three number one picks?

Murray makes Smart obsolete. After being name DPOY, I can't see Smart being happy coming off the bench, and his value will never be higher.

 

[lovegtm]

Murray makes Smart obsolete. After being name DPOY, I can't see Smart being happy coming off the bench, and his value will never be higher.

You also could re-route White for a late 1st (probably) and keep Smart. Smart is a better outside shooter, and no one feels comfortable just leaving him open anymore, so he's better for spacing.

San Antonio also seems to be down for pick swaps, so maybe could play that Russian Roulette instead of a pick.

If Murray really is on the block at that price, I like some variant of this move.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Only on SoSH could “Spurs want 3 first round picks” equate to a post-rookie contract veteran, a low 1st and a pick swap. I frickin love this place!

 

[lovegtm]

Only on SoSH could “Spurs want 3 first round picks” equate to a post-rookie contract veteran, a low 1st and a pick swap. I frickin love this place!

Yeah, or you could try to actually read what I'm saying instead of trying to score Green Glasses Points.

You'd assume that the Celtics would flip Smart or White in this scenario, either to generate a pick up front, or after the deal to replenish what was sent out. A first for either from someone in the league isn't crazy.

The pick swap was a potential offer, and would depend on how SA valued it. Obviously the Celtics could switch to a normal pick otherwise. Usually those picks are lottery or top-10 protected, so the swap is more appealing than it might seem. The Spurs clearly place some decent value on swaps, as we saw a few months ago.

 

[lexrageorge]

And what is being reported as to what the Spurs supposedly want, and what they actually get, are likely to be different.

 

[amfox1]

If the choice is trading two first rounders to SA for Murray or getting a future first and Noel or Burks and Reddish from NYK, I'm taking the Knicks deal.

 

[TripleOT]

If the choice is trading two first rounders to SA for Murray or getting a future first and Noel or Burks and Reddish from NYK, I'm taking the Knicks deal.

I like Noel as a backup to Rob Williams, but will ownership want to carry him and Theis at $9 million each? Burks, Reddish, and a first fit into the EF TPE solves problems for both teams. If Burks’ recent foot surgery isn’t going to hinder him from being ready for training camp, as his camp has claimed, that deal is a no brainer for the Celtics.

 

[amfox1]

I like Noel as a backup to Rob Williams, but will ownership want to carry him and Theis at $9 million each? Burks, Reddish, and a first fit into the EF TPE solves problems for both teams. If Burks’ recent foot surgery isn’t going to hinder him from being ready for training camp, as his camp has claimed, that deal is a no brainer for the Celtics.

Noel and Burks are one year obligations with team options for 23-24. Reddish will be a RFA after next season. Very little risk, eminently tradeable contracts. The Celtics need to maximize value of the Fournier TPE, and this would be a way to do just that. I'm not sold on Reddish but maybe teaming Tatum with his fellow Dukie will unlock some of Reddish's potential.

 

[nighthob]

For some reason the Spurs seem to want to get rid of Dejuante Murray. They want three firsts. Marcus Smart is worth a first, so him plus 2023 and 2025 should be in the ballpark.

San Antonio has zero interest in Smart. They already have a glut of players at the 1/2/3, which is why they’re trying to move Murray for a bunch of picks.

 

[lovegtm]

San Antonio has zero interest in Smart. They already have a glut of players at the 1/2/3, which is why they’re trying to move Murray for a bunch of picks.

However, since the Spurs are not the only team in the NBA, it is entirely possible that some other team in the league has interest in Smart, in which case he could be exchanged for one+ of the needed picks. (I'd prefer to keep Smart over White in this scenario, for the record, but the former's value is probably higher.)

 

[moondog80]

Dejounte Murray = another ballhandler who can't shoot 3s. Skeptical that he's the guy you wipe out your draft capital for.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Dejounte Murray = another ballhandler who can't shoot 3s. Skeptical that he's the guy you wipe out your draft capital for.

Probably not which is why I highly doubt Brad meets the price required. But the thought of Smart and Dejounte joining forces is quite intriguing to me. The switchability would be off the charts.

 

[PRabbit]

If you're telling me NYK will basically solve the depth issues AND throw in a future first...

Get it done, Theo.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Keith Smith with a nice writeup of 25 guys who might work for the Fournier TPE:

https://www.celticsblog.com/2022/6/27/23185052/top-25-boston-celtics-tpe-targets

I'd quibble with some of his rankings, but it's a solid list (few guys would actually fit into the Juancho TPE)

 

[PedrosRedGlove]

Good list. Heurter, KCP, Kuzma, and Burks seem to be the most popular realistic options being thrown around.

The mention of Kelly Olynyk is an interesting one that I don't think I've seen as much. Obviously doesn't solve the secondary shooting/ball handling issue which seems to be the top priority, but it'd be a great move to solidify front court depth. Would be good to have to allow Al and Rob more load management, and he'd be an upgrade over Theis in the playoff rotation.

 

[nighthob]

If you're telling me NYK will basically solve the depth issues AND throw in a future first...

Get it done, Theo.

I'm hoping that they're desperate enough to unload Fournier to throw in their own 2023 #1. Or at least a swap right.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I'm hoping that they're desperate enough to unload Fournier to throw in their own 2023 #1. Or at least a swap right.

I'm hoping they're desperate enough to send a 1st with Burks. If he wasn't hurt I'd be all over Burks for free, so getting a 1st would be nice.

I will say... there is no chance the Knicks use their own picks, the whole point of getting all those other 1sts was to have ammo to dump a salary. Might not get out of Fournier with that DAL 1st (or WAs or DET).

Still I'd be happy with Burks and a 1st, then you can always flip the 1st... say in a deal for Cameron Johnson if the Suns decide to match on Ayton?

 

[nighthob]

Cam Johnson would be the perfect fit here. Anything that lands him as a swing forward is OK by me.

 

[Senator Donut]

Good list. Heurter, KCP, Kuzma, and Burks seem to be the most popular realistic options being thrown around.

The mention of Kelly Olynyk is an interesting one that I don't think I've seen as much. Obviously doesn't solve the secondary shooting/ball handling issue which seems to be the top priority, but it'd be a great move to solidify front court depth. Would be good to have to allow Al and Rob more load management, and he'd be an upgrade over Theis in the playoff rotation.

I like the Olynyk idea. Detroit has been clearing space in order to offer sheet Bridges, Ayton, or maybe both. It’s a bad deal, but will be a lot more movable as an expiring next offseason, so in a way, the Celtics could roll over this exception, much like they did with Richardson and Fournier filling the Hayward exception. Those players were essentially salary ballast during their time in Boston.

 

[BigMike]

I'm hoping that they're desperate enough to unload Fournier to throw in their own 2023 #1. Or at least a swap right.

Can't imagine them doing that, but at the same time, shouldn't the Celtics focus be on trying to find the player who best solves their needs and can contribute to a Championship run. As opposed to trying to pick up some future assets.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Can't imagine them doing that, but at the same time, shouldn't the Celtics focus be on trying to find the player who best solves their needs and can contribute to a Championship run. As opposed to trying to pick up some future assets.

They should maximize the TPE. Fournier is overpaid, but he's not a bad player, and while not perfect he is a scorer and ballhandler off the bench, a key need. If you get a 1st with him, you can then use your other TPE, your MLE and that pick to hunt other guys you want. The Celtics are unlikely to make only 1 move this offseason.

I do think they're better off with other TPE options, BUT... Fournier is one of the better players you could add in that TPE, and him coming WITH a pick instead of costing one opens up a lot of other opportunities (like say adding a C with the MLE or Juancho TPE, then using the pick, more picks and some salary (say Theis, Nesmith, etc.) to add another player.

Fournier wouldn't be the top of my list (especially since the pick stapled to him isn't going to be the Knicks' pick), but I'd rather have Fournier and a pick than say.... Jae Crowder. It's all a question of what players are available to fit the TPE and what you have to give up to get them.

 

[NomarsFool]

Accept Fournier and a 1st, then trade Grant and a 1st for an upgrade, grab a ring chasing PG as a 3rd string PG and that'd be a great offseason.