Timelord Injury Watch
- Thread starter bsj
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I had the same impression. It feels like Timelord intimidates the hell out of teams in the first quarter and then they just avoid him from that point on. If you had asked me to guess, I would have estimated 60% of his blocks come in Q1. The danger of relying on anec-data.
I wish there was a stat for this, but I swear the proportion of first plays of the game that go to Rob Williams has to be like 10X the rate of other plays during the game that go to Rob. It's so frequent, you'd think other teams would be able to sort of plan for that - but it is also a very hard play to defend against. My question is why do they use it so more frequently as the first play of the game than at pretty much any other time during the game?
Here’s a hypothetical I’ve been thinking about a lot and haven’t heard mentioned anywhere yet… The Suns will be looking to play hard ball with Ayton this off season, and he might get the GH treatment where they match on a 3+1. They have a cheap owner who has shown in the past that he won’t go the extra mile to keep his star players. Their salary situation would be insane with 3 max players plus $20mm for Bridges and ~$10mm each for Shamet and Crowder. If RW continues to play the way he has, is there any chance the Suns would entertain a 1-1 swap (with salary matching from the Bos side). Would that even be something Boston would want to do? Is that upgrade worth the $20mm difference in salaries, plus Horford or Theis+ to match salaries?
I'm not sure why Boston would want to trade an under market contract for a market contract. They already get 80% (possibly more) of Deandre Ayton for half the price with TL. Plus the value of Ayton as a standalone player is depressed in Phoenix and it would be depressed in Boston as well - both teams have better players at guard and wing soaking up usage and taking on scoring duties. If you just need a good defensive center who can roll to the hoop, Time Lord is plenty enough for that role (and I believe he's a better passer than Ayton). I'd rather allocate that cap space to a knockdown shooter.
Even at A&M he had decent mechanics from the FT line with a very soft rotation so it’s good to see this finally playing up.
Yea TL was a nice gamble by Danny in the draft and Brad signing him last summer was excellent timing.
He could eventually start hitting the jumper at the nail at a high rate which would tighten coverage and be a zone breaker. Next years business.
Shifting gears, what upset specials do you like in the NCAAs today?
Yeah, right now it's incredible how much space he gets right around the top of the key, with everyone knowing he's looking to pass. Man, if he was able to toss in 60% of those open looks, that'd open up all sorts of possibilities.
He'd also be the best mid-range shooter in history, so kind of a tall order. Usually what you need is 50%+ on open ones, and then guys playing you tighter to open up passes and let you shoot less.
Ha, true. I was thinking more that if no one's going to bother guarding him, for a while it'd be almost as easy as taking a foul shot (of course that wouldn't last long if the shots started dropping).
For his career, he's at 54.2% from 10-16ft. Of course, it's a sample size of 24. He's hit 13 of them.
Rob implementing a mid range shot would be great, but I wonder if he could add a (one) dribble drive to his game. When left alone from 16 feet, put the ball on the deck once and either get to the rim, or shoot a half hook/push shot. One dribble after catching at the FT line should collapse a defense, assuming the player can make a shot (instead of a charge or a brick), and with Rob’s passing ability, should open up corner threes if he meets resistance.
Even if he misses from close range, he has the offensive rebounding ability to convert his misses. It might sound crazy, but when they double team JT out high, he could even catch it at the FT line, dribble once, and throw himself an alley oop off the glass.
Even if he misses from close range, he has the offensive rebounding ability to convert his misses. It might sound crazy, but when they double team JT out high, he could even catch it at the FT line, dribble once, and throw himself an alley oop off the glass.
Is there a site that tracks Offensive rebounds turned directly into points? TL averages 4.4FGM/6.0 FGA per game., and 3.9 OReb/G. How many of his 350 FGA this year came directly after an offensive rebound and at what % did he convert them at?
Among the other top 10 players in OReb/36, he only averages more FGA than 2 of them. Those 2 being Steven Adams and Mitchell Robinson. Steven Adams isn't nearly as efficient, but is at another level on the offensive glass. Robinson is pretty similar to TL as far as OReb/FG%. He's about half a year younger too, though at this stage I'm not sure it matters much. His average shot distance for his career (1.3 feet) is even less than TL's 3.1.
He also has the worst FTA/36 and is tied with Stewart for worst FTA/G among the top 10. Stewart is only 20 and in his 2nd season. TL is at 1.9 FTA/36. 8th on the list is Capela at 3.0. Then Robinson and Poeltl at 3.5.
FT% , FTA/36, career FT% among the top 10 in OReb/36. Added FGA/36 too.
Adams .544, 3.7, .548, 7.0
Robinson, .497, 3.5, .546, 6.8
Drummond .518, 4.1, .472, 10.2
McGee .711, 4.5, .606, 14.4
Capela .372, 3.0, .528, 10.5
Howard .642, 5.1, .566, 7.5
Whiteside .622, 5.0, .605, 10.3
Poeltl .491, 3.5, .518, 12.1
Timelord .719, 1.9, .664, 7.3
Isaiah Stewart .685, 2.1, .691, 9.7
What a terrible list of FT shooters. Though if you go by per game, it gets a little better.
Gobert .693, .637
Jarrett .708, .699
Sabonis .740, .728
Nurkic .690, .672
While TL's sample size from the line is small (140/211), he appears light years better than anyone on the initial list outside of Stewart. If he could get to the line closer to 3.5/36 instead of the 1.9, that would help. Having a one dribble drive game could get him to the line about twice as often, and he's proven to be pretty good at it. Give him that dribble drive and he goes from 10 points a game to 15. His FG% might be closer to 70% instead of 73% though.
Long story short, it seems like TL could be scoring a lot more points with an offensive move that isn't a dunk. Also, from a box score perspective, Poeltl and TL have a lot in common outside FT shooting.
Among the other top 10 players in OReb/36, he only averages more FGA than 2 of them. Those 2 being Steven Adams and Mitchell Robinson. Steven Adams isn't nearly as efficient, but is at another level on the offensive glass. Robinson is pretty similar to TL as far as OReb/FG%. He's about half a year younger too, though at this stage I'm not sure it matters much. His average shot distance for his career (1.3 feet) is even less than TL's 3.1.
He also has the worst FTA/36 and is tied with Stewart for worst FTA/G among the top 10. Stewart is only 20 and in his 2nd season. TL is at 1.9 FTA/36. 8th on the list is Capela at 3.0. Then Robinson and Poeltl at 3.5.
FT% , FTA/36, career FT% among the top 10 in OReb/36. Added FGA/36 too.
Adams .544, 3.7, .548, 7.0
Robinson, .497, 3.5, .546, 6.8
Drummond .518, 4.1, .472, 10.2
McGee .711, 4.5, .606, 14.4
Capela .372, 3.0, .528, 10.5
Howard .642, 5.1, .566, 7.5
Whiteside .622, 5.0, .605, 10.3
Poeltl .491, 3.5, .518, 12.1
Timelord .719, 1.9, .664, 7.3
Isaiah Stewart .685, 2.1, .691, 9.7
What a terrible list of FT shooters. Though if you go by per game, it gets a little better.
Gobert .693, .637
Jarrett .708, .699
Sabonis .740, .728
Nurkic .690, .672
While TL's sample size from the line is small (140/211), he appears light years better than anyone on the initial list outside of Stewart. If he could get to the line closer to 3.5/36 instead of the 1.9, that would help. Having a one dribble drive game could get him to the line about twice as often, and he's proven to be pretty good at it. Give him that dribble drive and he goes from 10 points a game to 15. His FG% might be closer to 70% instead of 73% though.
Long story short, it seems like TL could be scoring a lot more points with an offensive move that isn't a dunk. Also, from a box score perspective, Poeltl and TL have a lot in common outside FT shooting.
Welp, this is why you trade for Theis. It's suddenly a very big deal that he's not a $5M/yr fungicenter.
On the plus side, it shouldn't mess with the Celtics rotations at all. They can absolutely go deep with a Theis/Horford center rotation, in the worst case.
On the plus side, it shouldn't mess with the Celtics rotations at all. They can absolutely go deep with a Theis/Horford center rotation, in the worst case.
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Not sure the timing on a meniscus tear
Not sure the timing on a meniscus tear
Quick googling shows 4+ weeks depending on severity. The real nut punch is there is no other player on the roster that fits the archetype of Rob Williams that can slide in and provide some semblance of his value to this team. It will be extremely interesting to see how they're able to weather the storm without him as a defensive anchor. Hopefully he can get right for the playoffs.
Huge blow for a team that had aspirations of a deep playoff run.
I assume Rob will sit the remainder of the regular season, but the Celtics have enough wins banked that they will almost certainly miss the playin. But who really knows how this will affect him in the playoffs, but I'm not optimistic.
I assume Rob will sit the remainder of the regular season, but the Celtics have enough wins banked that they will almost certainly miss the playin. But who really knows how this will affect him in the playoffs, but I'm not optimistic.
Will let one of the docs chime in but meniscus I think can be a matter of weeks depending on the severity and level of treatment. But with his injury history and the importance of his bounciness I am skeptical of a return.
Either way, this is just brutal as we were steamrolling into the playoffs as potentially THE favorite. That said, this doesn't bury them. It hurts a good chunk of what they do defensively but I think they can sustain most of the offensive improvement without him.
Either way, this is just brutal as we were steamrolling into the playoffs as potentially THE favorite. That said, this doesn't bury them. It hurts a good chunk of what they do defensively but I think they can sustain most of the offensive improvement without him.
Obvious Monday morning quarterbacking, but it’s a shame he was on the floor in a blowout. Just unnecessary.
The only glimmer of hope is that it's partially torn and it can be fixed with rest and rehab. If it's a full blown tear, he's done for the year no matter what and he still might be. But, a partial tear would be somewhere around 4-6 weeks.
It was fun while it lasted.
I really thought we escaped playing Al/TL big minutes all season.
BUT no regrets and no blame on IME, he got more out of those two then anyone could have guessed.
I really thought we escaped playing Al/TL big minutes all season.
BUT no regrets and no blame on IME, he got more out of those two then anyone could have guessed.
Basically what Jed Zepplin said. I'm not a doctor, but I have had several meniscus tears (and ACL tears) and honestly the meniscus tear is worse from a fixability and long-term perspective than an ACL. If it's bad and most of the meniscus needs to come out think Greg Oden. If it's not bad and is repairable or only a small part needs to come out, it could could be a matter of weeks that he's out, but there's no growing or fixing the mensicus after it comes out. They tried doing meniscus transplants in the early 2000s, but I can tell you from personal experience, they didn't work. I think they're going to have to weigh short term gains/long-term health of the knee/career.
Yeah, no way to know how long outside of that he's going to miss the rest of the regular season and at least 1 round of the playoffs.
Certainly changes the willingness to face the Nets round 1.
Probably more realistic to think he's out until the ECF with a good chance of being out until next year
Certainly changes the willingness to face the Nets round 1.
Probably more realistic to think he's out until the ECF with a good chance of being out until next year
A 2012 study by the American Journal of Sports Medicine concluded that “129 NBA players with meniscus tears over a 21-year span missed an average of 40 days.”
This is such a kick in the ass. The Cs starting 5 has been such a force. Williams going out isn't exactly a surprise given his history. But given his unusual defensive prowess and the "easy buckets" Williams gets with all of the alley oops and put backs, the overall production will not be easily replaced. And depth was already an issue for this team. I'm not saying cancel the season but damn, the utter dominance with all the 20 plus point wins against quality teams is not something we've seen very often. I hope it can last without Rob but tend to doubt it. And if Williams is not back for the playoffs, the Celtics' chances are almost certainly reduced.
Let's hope he returns before the tourney begins. And I have no idea how likely that is.
Let's hope he returns before the tourney begins. And I have no idea how likely that is.
That would get him back somewhere in the 2nd or 3rd round. It's going to be tougher, by a lot, but the Celtics have enough talent to get far without him imo.
