Timelord Injury Watch

[Cesar Crespo]

If there could only be one, and If you could make the call, would you rather see if you could get RW3 to begin developing a 3pt shot? Or would you push him to develop a 15 footer From baseline to baseline?

Keep in mind that a 3pt% next year might be well below 30% while a 15 footer might be @ 42%.
(of course the point would be for steady improvement until one was a consistent weapon. but NEXT YEAR those are your options)

Where did you get those numbers? The league is shooting .427 from 10-16, .401 from 16-3p and .349 from 3.

So you think he can develop a league average 15 foot jumper as soon as next season? To answer your question, I'd rather he develop a 3 point shot. 28% from 3 is equal to 42% from 15, and assuming he can shoot 42% from 15 feet is being extremely generous. 28% from 3 might be pretty generous too but it seems more plausible for a player learning a new skill to do it at well below league average than at league average. Plus the sooner he starts developing the 3 point shot the quicker he develops it. That and I don't see much point in developing a 15 foot shot in today's game unless it's a form thing/mental thing/confidence thing. Just skip the midrange and start from 3. If he is absolutely dreadful from 3 and it looks like a lost cause, you can always go back to the 15 footer.

The game is mathematically broken.

 

[bakahump]

Thanks for fleshing out some numbers @Cesar Crespo

I had @42% as its not truly a new skill. (FTs, shooting around etc etc) . Slightly surpised that league avg is 42% (thought it would be 45-48 tbh).

Where as 3pts for a guy like RW3 is a less "practiced" skill.

I had been thinking I would like to have him learn a 15footer......but as I think about how the offense works and you and others points. RW3s high Picks really do lend themselves to more of the top of the Key3 (like Good Al).

What would you be "Satisfied with" as year 1 skill from 3?

25%? 28%?

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Thanks for fleshing out some numbers @Cesar Crespo

I had @42% as its not truly a new skill. (FTs, shooting around etc etc) . Slightly surpised that league avg is 42% (thought it would be 45-48 tbh).

Where as 3pts for a guy like RW3 is a less "practiced" skill.

I had been thinking I would like to have him learn a 15footer......but as I think about how the offense works and you and others points. RW3s high Picks really do lend themselves to more of the top of the Key3 (like Good Al).

What would you be "Satisfied with" as year 1 skill from 3?

25%? 28%?

Yeah, 25-28% on about 120ish attempts over 75 games. I doubt he'd actually get that much volume and it'd be closer to 45-50.

I wonder if they are looking to develop either. Maybe moving him away from the basket isn't the best idea and having him work on his 3-10 foot game is. He shoots .613 from 3-10, and that makes up 22% of his shots...His average shot distance is only 2.9 feet but 47% of his FGA are also dunks which wouldn't help that number. Maybe develop some reliable moves down low other than the dunk and put backs. Maybe it's just not on his skill set but TL with a few offensive moves is a player closer to Tatum in value than Jaylen Brown. And/or a TL with a passable 3 point shot. Though, again, I wonder if taking Rob away from the rim so he can hit maybe 30-33% of a limited number of 3s in his prime is worth the trade off. Keep him close to the rim, just have him work on a few moves. With his vision and passing skills, let them play inside/outside rather than TL on the perimeter.

TL is such an exceptionally gifted offensive rebounder with insane length and vertical that it's hard to justify moving him away from the rim. Instead, build his game around it. The 3 point shot is king in the NBA but offense around the rim is pretty rad too. He has a 9'4 standing reach and is a human pogo stick. He was made to play inside. Work to his strengths.

Seriously, how valuable is a TL with a bit of an offensive game? One that can be counted on to score around 18 a night and while he may not be the "3rd scorer" on the team, by PPG he would be because he's so incredibly effective. 18 points, 10-11 boards, 3-4 assists, 3 blocks, 1 steal on maybe 65-68% shooting (a small decrease due to an expanded roll and having a few go to moves that will never be as effective as dunks, but effective nonetheless). Also, a small bump in assists due to expanded roll. It's possible I'm really underselling how much an impact an offensive game could have in unlocking the true potential of his playmaking abilities. How many more double teams it could lead to and how many pass outs to the open man on the perimeter.

The flipside of that is if he did develop into a league average 3 pointer on closer to 3-4 attempts a game, any trade off would definitely be worth it. It's an interesting gamble if the team believes TL could be a plus from 3 because a lot of his physical strengths are amplified being the "garbage man/energy guy" and playing inside. I'm a big believer that while offensive rebounding can be impacted by team play (moving out to the perimeter on offense to take 3s) that it's far less team dependent than defensive rebounding. TL is an elite offensive rebounder and those rebounds often end in very easy baskets for the C's whether directly from TL or indirectly. And the point of TL developing a 3 point shot would be to expand the floor but he already does that vertically. Teams have to be worried about him dunking the ball. Moving him to the perimeter takes away that threat. It also may take away some of the confidence the other players will have in shooting the 3 if they know TL isn't their to get the offensive rebound. If he succeeds and is a .340-.360 ish shooter on 3 to 4 attempts a game, they look like geniuses. If it fails, they wasted some precious development time and with having an inferior TL on the court for a few seasons. Or more if he starts to believe he's a 3 point shooter when he isn't and it leaves him a bit worse off value wise.

Personally, I don't think expanding his range is particularly worth it. Expand his skills from 0-10.

 

[lovegtm]

...
Personally, I don't think expanding his range is particularly worth it. Expand his skills from 0-10.

Yeah, centers who shoot ~34% from 3 on low volume barely provide any spacing. It feels like "oh, 34%, that's decent half-court offense." However, the problem is that teams either dare them to shoot, or send guys flying at them to run them off the line.

Then you're left with your center needing to put the ball on the deck 25 feet from the rim and make a play, often with a defender right near him. The expected value of the possession drops pretty quickly when that happens.

You have to be higher % or have a quicker release for those problems to go away, and that's a tough ask for someone like TL.

This is before you even get into his impact on the offensive glass and spacing vertically, which you mentioned.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Yeah, centers who shoot ~34% from 3 on low volume barely provide any spacing. It feels like "oh, 34%, that's decent half-court offense." However, the problem is that teams either dare them to shoot, or send guys flying at them to run them off the line.

This player you describe has a name: Amir Johnson.

 

[lovegtm]

This player you describe has a name: Amir Johnson.

Lol yes. Myles Turner is the good version of this, and it's easy to see that his "spacing" doesn't provide the offensive impact one would naively assume.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

The thing that jumps out about Williams’ highlights that aren’t as obvious in real time is that he’s learned to restrain himself. In the past he would always be a max effort guy, but now he’s learned to pace and use anticipation to make these awesome plays. Very promising.

Rob can be the poster child for “letting the game slow down.” His gradual improvement over the last 18 months is the dream for drafting the long and athletic high upside guy. Hopefully the hip/knee issues are able to be managed long term.

 

[Saints Rest]

Yeah, 25-28% on about 120ish attempts over 75 games. I doubt he'd actually get that much volume and it'd be closer to 45-50.

I wonder if they are looking to develop either. Maybe moving him away from the basket isn't the best idea and having him work on his 3-10 foot game is. He shoots .613 from 3-10, and that makes up 22% of his shots...His average shot distance is only 2.9 feet but 47% of his FGA are also dunks which wouldn't help that number. Maybe develop some reliable moves down low other than the dunk and put backs. Maybe it's just not on his skill set but TL with a few offensive moves is a player closer to Tatum in value than Jaylen Brown. And/or a TL with a passable 3 point shot. Though, again, I wonder if taking Rob away from the rim so he can hit maybe 30-33% of a limited number of 3s in his prime is worth the trade off. Keep him close to the rim, just have him work on a few moves. With his vision and passing skills, let them play inside/outside rather than TL on the perimeter.

TL is such an exceptionally gifted offensive rebounder with insane length and vertical that it's hard to justify moving him away from the rim. Instead, build his game around it. The 3 point shot is king in the NBA but offense around the rim is pretty rad too. He has a 9'4 standing reach and is a human pogo stick. He was made to play inside. Work to his strengths.

Seriously, how valuable is a TL with a bit of an offensive game? One that can be counted on to score around 18 a night and while he may not be the "3rd scorer" on the team, by PPG he would be because he's so incredibly effective. 18 points, 10-11 boards, 3-4 assists, 3 blocks, 1 steal on maybe 65-68% shooting (a small decrease due to an expanded roll and having a few go to moves that will never be as effective as dunks, but effective nonetheless). Also, a small bump in assists due to expanded roll. It's possible I'm really underselling how much an impact an offensive game could have in unlocking the true potential of his playmaking abilities. How many more double teams it could lead to and how many pass outs to the open man on the perimeter.

The flipside of that is if he did develop into a league average 3 pointer on closer to 3-4 attempts a game, any trade off would definitely be worth it. It's an interesting gamble if the team believes TL could be a plus from 3 because a lot of his physical strengths are amplified being the "garbage man/energy guy" and playing inside. I'm a big believer that while offensive rebounding can be impacted by team play (moving out to the perimeter on offense to take 3s) that it's far less team dependent than defensive rebounding. TL is an elite offensive rebounder and those rebounds often end in very easy baskets for the C's whether directly from TL or indirectly. And the point of TL developing a 3 point shot would be to expand the floor but he already does that vertically. Teams have to be worried about him dunking the ball. Moving him to the perimeter takes away that threat. It also may take away some of the confidence the other players will have in shooting the 3 if they know TL isn't their to get the offensive rebound. If he succeeds and is a .340-.360 ish shooter on 3 to 4 attempts a game, they look like geniuses. If it fails, they wasted some precious development time and with having an inferior TL on the court for a few seasons. Or more if he starts to believe he's a 3 point shooter when he isn't and it leaves him a bit worse off value wise.

Personally, I don't think expanding his range is particularly worth it. Expand his skills from 0-10.

I agree that he should focus on a 15’ and in game. At the most basic, a .333 3P game would be equivalent essentially to a .500 2P game. Right now his 2P game is off the charts efficient, mainly because so many of his shots are dunks. Meanwhile he’s likely a long way from .333 from three.
Seems to me the question is about the intangible benefits his positioning brings to the rest of the team.
In close, he allows them a lob option plus the ability to get ORebs. OTOH, he brings a defender, who is likely a rim protector, close to the rim and adds two bodies in the lane.
Up top, he opens up space and can use his excellent passing to help the team, plus he is in better position to get back on transition. But it’s hard for him to contribute offensively as a scorer from out there.
I’d love to see him gain a bit more confidence in his 15’ jumper and to add some sort of low-post move. It seems to me that his quickness and length should allow him to develop some sort of jump hook or up-and-under type move.

 

[benhogan]

I agree that he should focus on a 15’ and in game. At the most basic, a .333 3P game would be equivalent essentially to a .500 2P game. Right now his 2P game is off the charts efficient, mainly because so many of his shots are dunks. Meanwhile he’s likely a long way from .333 from three.
Seems to me the question is about the intangible benefits his positioning brings to the rest of the team.
In close, he allows them a lob option plus the ability to get ORebs. OTOH, he brings a defender, who is likely a rim protector, close to the rim and adds two bodies in the lane.
Up top, he opens up space and can use his excellent passing to help the team, plus he is in better position to get back on transition. But it’s hard for him to contribute offensively as a scorer from out there.
I’d love to see him gain a bit more confidence in his 15’ jumper and to add some sort of low-post move. It seems to me that his quickness and length should allow him to develop some sort of jump hook or up-and-under type move.

TL at the dunker spot does bring a defensive shot-blocker to the rim,

BUT any 5 that leaves TL unchecked to stop a JAY/Smart/White rim run will get WILSON indented on their noggin.

TL developing a nail jumper puts an end to Spolstra/Nurse's 2-3 zone. That is his future

 

[tbrown_01923]

TL developing a nail jumper puts an end to Spolstra/Nurse's 2-3 zone. That is his future

I have a fantasy where he already has it, and has been waiting to the playoffs to unveil in-game.

 

[Twilight]

Seriously, how valuable is a TL with a bit of an offensive game? One that can be counted on to score around 18 a night and while he may not be the "3rd scorer" on the team, by PPG he would be because he's so incredibly effective. 18 points, 10-11 boards, 3-4 assists, 3 blocks, 1 steal [...]

Different type of player in a different era, but there was this one guy who did something close to what you describe for a while. He was pretty valuable, I think.
18.5 points, 10.4 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.8 blocks, 0.8 steals over 6 seasons.

Spoiler

Robert Parish, '80-'81 through '85-'86.

Probably too easy for this forum, but I enjoy the Cellar and usually can't contribute to the discussion.

 

[NomarsFool]

Interesting. I didn't remember that Parish scored so many points. I guess my memory is more focused on his last five years in Boston when he was more in the 12-15 range. But, looking at his stats, he was almost a 20 points a game scorer earlier in his career.

 

[Senator Donut]

Wyc is hedging against a super max extension for Time Lord

View: https://twitter.com/bfawkes22/status/1494130424175493121


In all seriousness, I wonder if he’ll get consideration. DPOY is definitely a reputation award. Perception usually lags a full year behind on-court results for hard to measure skills.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I don't know if he has any chance of winning, but if he does, he can't miss many more games.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Wyc is hedging against a super max extension for Time Lord

Ok now this was funny.

In all seriousness, I wonder if he’ll get consideration. DPOY is definitely a reputation award. Perception usually lags a full year behind on-court results for hard to measure skills.

Extremely unlikely. The young big getting national attention for the award is Jaren Jackson Jr. who was over 100-1 a month ago and is now as low as 5-1 at some places.

 

[lovegtm]

View: https://twitter.com/MattEsposito_/status/1494651417394499587?s=20&t=jWtaa1wItFN66B-7u2HTBQ

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Thank you for posting this here and to @Eddie Jurak for adding it to the Udoka thread. TimeLord Island doesn't seem to be a particularly nice place to visit.

 

[lovegtm]

oops, missed his poast

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

oops, missed his poast

More people should see it so no worries. Williams' development this season has changed this team's path forward considerably. He is the obvious key to their defense - this team can get stops at every level now and that wasn't been the case before. Clamps!

 

[Don Buddin's GS]

Dave Cowens on Timelord, as told to Steve Bulpett on Heavy.com:

https://heavy.com/sports/boston-celtics/dave-cowens-robert-williams/

“I’m impressed with the young guy in terms of his ability to get to the right spot to get open. He slides and he knows how to take advantage of the openings that are presented to him. So I’ve seen a lot of improvement. He’s a big reason why they’re able to maintain offensive continuity.”

 

[chilidawg]

Cowens would have been a great fit for today's game.

 

[128]

Cowens would have been a great fit for today's game.

Absolutely. Stretch-4 or stretch-5.

 

[RorschachsMask]

View: https://twitter.com/Timi_093/status/1500448442828693507?s=20&t=ffkKxoMDHcDTRFP0F0PZng

 

[sezwho]

View: https://twitter.com/Timi_093/status/1500448442828693507?s=20&t=ffkKxoMDHcDTRFP0F0PZng

Cool to see this video: my memory has definitely decided Lob has been making mid range jumpers, though infrequently, at high rate and with smooth release for some time

 

[chilidawg]

He's shooting 20% from 10-16' and 33% from 16+. The jumper does look good though, I think he should shoot it more often, would give the D something else to think about.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

He's shooting 20% from 10-16' and 33% from 16+. The jumper does look good though, I think he should shoot it more often, would give the D something else to think about.

He's 1-5 from 10-16 feet and 2-6 from 16+. If memory serves, at least a couple of those were late in the shot clock.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

He's shooting 20% from 10-16' and 33% from 16+. The jumper does look good though, I think he should shoot it more often, would give the D something else to think about.

I’ve always said how his ball rotation and release gives him a higher ceiling for his shooting growth if he puts the work in. This is his next leap.

 

[benhogan]

He's 1-5 from 10-16 feet and 2-6 from 16+. If memory serves, at least a couple of those were late in the shot clock.

hilarious...It would be like analyzing a hitter after 2 games in April

The FT shooting is encouraging

 

[Van Everyman]

Yeah, the video is more compelling than the non-FT numbers. He looks smooth. My guess is, like Baynes a few years ago when he added the three, this will be something they add in the offseason, not mid-season in the middle of a playoff run. Especially when it took 40-50% of the season for everyone to learn the new program.

 

[benhogan]

I’ve always said how his ball rotation and release gives him a higher ceiling for his shooting growth if he puts the work in. This is his next leap.

His release height is excellent + rotation/high arc is very good for a BIG (if we squint there could be a hint of Chief)

Summer '22: 1000/day of 15' around the nail

Summer '23: 1000/day of top of the key 3 pointers (that's where Baynes began)

 

[Saints Rest]

His release height is excellent + rotation/high arc is very good for a BIG (if we squint there could be a hint of Chief)

Summer '22: 1000/day of 15' around the nail

Summer '23: 1000/day of top of the key 3 pointers (that's where Baynes began)

I prefer the former to the latter. 3's for a big mostly come off the pick-and-pop (Al's bread and butter in his first go-round with the Celts). I don't want TL spending too much time 25' from the basket, essentially eliminating his greatest asset (the lob-dunk) and his second biggest asset (offensive rebounding).
OTOH, I really like TL in the high post. Close enough to get to the hoop on a drive for a lob or an OR, far enough out not to be clogging the lane. Plus it affords the Celts the added benefit of his excellent passing. Combine those skills with a 40-50% FG% from 10-15' and you have an ideal person to be the middle man to beat the zones that so befuddle this team.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Last 31 games (out of a possible 36): 31.6 mpg, .719/.000/.829, 10.5 points, 11.0 rebounds (4.3 OReb), 2.6 assists, 1.1 steals, 2.7 blocks, 1.1 TO. 2.5 PF.

Per/36 this year: 12.0 points, 11.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.1 steals, 2.7 blocks, 1.3 TO
Per/36 career: 13.1 points, 12.1 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.4 steals, 3.2 blocks, 1.6 TO.


And a fun little WTF.
First 3 years: 1656 minutes, 648 points, 567 rebounds, 128 assists, 74 steals, 166 blocks, 83 TO, 113 games.
This season: 1619 minutes, 540 points, 530 rebounds, 109 assists, 51 steals, 121 blocks, 60 TO. 54 games.

At his current pace, he should end up at 66 games, 1979 minutes.

I would have predicted around 60-65 games, and 1500-1650 minutes for the year. 25 mpg. Pleasant surprise. Him emerging as a legit 30+ minute starter changes the team dynamic a lot. While there are a lot of centers who offer 90% of what TL does, that other 10% makes a huge difference. I think he's pretty close to his ceiling now, though there is some room for growth re: scoring/shooting.

 

[benhogan]

Last 31 games (out of a possible 36): 31.6 mpg, .719/.000/.829, 10.5 points, 11.0 rebounds (4.3 OReb), 2.6 assists, 1.1 steals, 2.7 blocks, 1.1 TO. 2.5 PF.

Per/36 this year: 12.0 points, 11.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.1 steals, 2.7 blocks, 1.3 TO
Per/36 career: 13.1 points, 12.1 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.4 steals, 3.2 blocks, 1.6 TO.


And a fun little WTF.
First 3 years: 1656 minutes, 648 points, 567 rebounds, 128 assists, 74 steals, 166 blocks, 83 TO, 113 games.
This season: 1619 minutes, 540 points, 530 rebounds, 109 assists, 51 steals, 121 blocks, 60 TO. 54 games.

At his current pace, he should end up at 66 games, 1979 minutes.

I would have predicted around 60-65 games, and 1500-1650 minutes for the year. 25 mpg. Pleasant surprise. Him emerging as a legit 30+ minute starter changes the team dynamic a lot. While there are a lot of centers who offer 90% of what TL does, that other 10% makes a huge difference. I think he's pretty close to his ceiling now, though there is some room for growth re: scoring/shooting.

nice recap.

SSS alert: Rob is 32/37 (86%) from the FT line over the last 30 games.

If I squint I could see him turning into a 15ppg player in a couple of seasons.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

nice recap.

SSS alert: Rob is 32/37 (86%) from the FT line over the last 30 games.

If I squint I could see him turning into a 15ppg player in a couple of seasons.

I can too but that would require him adding some moves to his offensive repertoire. If he can score 15-16 a game, asking if he's better than Gobert becomes a thing.

The big difference between the 2 now is Gobert gets to the line 4 times more often than TL, which adds up to 3.2 points this year.

 

[benhogan]

I can too but that would require him adding some moves to his offensive repertoire. If he can score 15-16 a game, asking if he's better than Gobert becomes a thing.

The big difference between the 2 now is Gobert gets to the line 4 times more often than TL, which adds up to 3.2 points this year.

10ppg on alley-oops and put backs isn't bad

He just needs to add that little jumper at the nail, then eventually expand to the top of the KEY3 on Pick-n-Pops. He could actually resemble Celtic Al a little (less assist/more rebs/more blks). Horford didn't start launching 3s until he was 28/29

Horford topped out at 14/7/5 as a Celtic

Damn that 4yr extension is sweet, great work by Brad

 

[Cesar Crespo]

10ppg on alley-oops and put backs isn't bad

He just needs to add that little jumper at the nail, then eventually expand to the top of the KEY3 on Pick-n-Pops. He could actually resemble Celtic Al a little (less assist/more rebs/more blks). Horford didn't start launching 3s until he was 28/29

Horford topped out at 14/7/5 as a Celtic

Damn that 4yr extension is sweet, great work by Brad

Al may not have been shooting the 3, but he was shooting plenty from 10'-3pt.

Average distance of shots first 4 years for Al: 7.3, 7.9, 7.3, 10.8. He was a career .762 FT shooter, 667/885. 10.0% of his FGA were dunks. His first 4 year average shot distance was 8.4 feet. 40.2% of his FGA were from 10' or more.
Average distance of shots first 4 years for TL: 2.6, 3.0, 4.1, 2.7. TL is a career .663 FT shooter, 136/205. 44.6% of his FGA have been dunks. His first 4 year average shot distance is currently 3.1 feet. 7.1% of his FGA are from 10' or more.

They aren't remotely the same. I don't want TL moving away from the rim. I'd rather he learn some moves inside. His greatest offensive strengths are all around the basket (vertical spacing, OReb, being able to pass out, insane length/athleticism). Moving him away from that so he can be a Daniel Theis level threat from 3 seems pretty pointless to me. I don't see him developing into an Al or Brook level threat.

 

[chilidawg]

10ppg on alley-oops and put backs isn't bad

He just needs to add that little jumper at the nail, then eventually expand to the top of the KEY3 on Pick-n-Pops. He could actually resemble Celtic Al a little (less assist/more rebs/more blks). Horford didn't start launching 3s until he was 28/29

Horford topped out at 14/7/5 as a Celtic

Damn that 4yr extension is sweet, great work by Brad

2nd all that. I'd add that I'd love to see him start attacking the basket when he gets the ball in the deep post on a mismatch. He almost always kicks it back out, which isn't a bad play and usually means good ball movement, but going at the defense would add another dimension to his game.

 

[benhogan]

Al may not have been shooting the 3, but he was shooting plenty from 10'-3pt.

Average distance of shots first 4 years for Al: 7.3, 7.9, 7.3, 10.8. He was a career .762 FT shooter, 667/885. 10.0% of his FGA were dunks. His first 4 year average shot distance was 8.4 feet. 40.2% of his FGA were from 10' or more.
Average distance of shots first 4 years for TL: 2.6, 3.0, 4.1, 2.7. TL is a career .663 FT shooter, 136/205. 44.6% of his FGA have been dunks. His first 4 year average shot distance is currently 3.1 feet. 7.1% of his FGA are from 10' or more.

They aren't remotely the same. I don't want TL moving away from the rim. I'd rather he learn some moves inside. His greatest offensive strengths are all around the basket (vertical spacing, OReb, being able to pass out, insane length/athleticism). Moving him away from that so he can be a Daniel Theis level threat from 3 seems pretty pointless to me. I don't see him developing into an Al or Brook level threat.

As you noted Rob is actually playing consistently for the 1st time in his career. Shooting, like his FT shooting, will steadily improve with work, minutes and reps.

I like Rob's plus passing ability and see a lot of upside there. Moving him away from the rim 15-20% of the time will present a different set of problems for the defense. Next few years business

 

[lovegtm]

Al may not have been shooting the 3, but he was shooting plenty from 10'-3pt.

Average distance of shots first 4 years for Al: 7.3, 7.9, 7.3, 10.8. He was a career .762 FT shooter, 667/885. 10.0% of his FGA were dunks. His first 4 year average shot distance was 8.4 feet. 40.2% of his FGA were from 10' or more.
Average distance of shots first 4 years for TL: 2.6, 3.0, 4.1, 2.7. TL is a career .663 FT shooter, 136/205. 44.6% of his FGA have been dunks. His first 4 year average shot distance is currently 3.1 feet. 7.1% of his FGA are from 10' or more.

They aren't remotely the same. I don't want TL moving away from the rim. I'd rather he learn some moves inside. His greatest offensive strengths are all around the basket (vertical spacing, OReb, being able to pass out, insane length/athleticism). Moving him away from that so he can be a Daniel Theis level threat from 3 seems pretty pointless to me. I don't see him developing into an Al or Brook level threat.

Yeah, Al was consistently one of the best mid-range shooters in the league in his Atlanta/early Boston days, up there with Dirk/CP3. He then extended out to 3.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Al may not have been shooting the 3, but he was shooting plenty from 10'-3pt.

Average distance of shots first 4 years for Al: 7.3, 7.9, 7.3, 10.8. He was a career .762 FT shooter, 667/885. 10.0% of his FGA were dunks. His first 4 year average shot distance was 8.4 feet. 40.2% of his FGA were from 10' or more.
Average distance of shots first 4 years for TL: 2.6, 3.0, 4.1, 2.7. TL is a career .663 FT shooter, 136/205. 44.6% of his FGA have been dunks. His first 4 year average shot distance is currently 3.1 feet. 7.1% of his FGA are from 10' or more.

They aren't remotely the same. I don't want TL moving away from the rim. I'd rather he learn some moves inside. His greatest offensive strengths are all around the basket (vertical spacing, OReb, being able to pass out, insane length/athleticism). Moving him away from that so he can be a Daniel Theis level threat from 3 seems pretty pointless to me. I don't see him developing into an Al or Brook level threat.

I think this is basically right, but it is worth noting that the Celtics do run a lot of sets that move Rob away from the basket. Pick and roll is one example. Rob with the ball at the top of the key is another. I tend to think you are right that one decent post move - just one for starters - would serve him better than a three pointer, but the latter would not be without its uses.

 

[benhogan]

I think this is basically right, but it is worth noting that the Celtics do run a lot of sets that move Rob away from the basket. Pick and roll is one example. Rob with the ball at the top of the key is another. I tend to think you are right that one decent post move - just one for starters - would serve him better than a three pointer, but the latter would not be without its uses.

TL is going to be part of this team for the next 5 seasons. Rob 3pt attempts wouldn't really become a thing until he became a proficient shooter from 12-15'. Once he starts to hit FTs at a decent clip, he can start expanding his 12-15' game

He can also learn post-move(s) in the meantime. It's not an either-or decision.

I agree Rob will find himself on the perimeter for a variety of reasons (mostly because he is a good passer, good screener, good roller and it takes away the opposing BIG from the rim)

 

[DavidTai]

Favorite play from last night. View: https://streamable.com/6jf4im

 

[Everetts Dinosaurs]

Guys, my understanding is Timelord is a free agent at the end of the season. What do you think the price is on him now?

 

[Van Everyman]

Guys, my understanding is Timelord is a free agent at the end of the season. What do you think the price is on him now?

Hopefully they can lock him up. I’d say 4/54 should do the trick.

 

[Everetts Dinosaurs]

Hopefully they can lock him up. I’d say 4/54 should do the trick.

Nah, word is that the price is going up. That might have been enough last offseason, but we blew it.

 

[Scoops Bolling]

It is an interesting question what a Timelord extension would look like if POBOBS (President Of Basketball Operations Brad Stevens) hadn't locked him down. I honestly don't have any estimate, I don't know the NBA's market well enough.

 

[Euclis20]

We mentioned it at the time, but I feel like Jarrett Allens' contact (5/100) is a pretty decent example of the sort of deal he'd be able to command were he a free agent this summer (assuming the next 2-3 months go as well as the last 5 have, and he stays healthy). It only takes one team to look at TL and say that he looks like young, smaller, quicker, better passing version of Gobert. That guy might be close to a max guy.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Does anyone have quarter by quarter stats? I need to know if I'm losing my mind or if TL seems to go crazy in 1st quarters statistically, and then slow down later in games.

 

[DGreenwood]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-plqXE1BZXw&t=19s

 

[Euclis20]

Does anyone have quarter by quarter stats? I need to know if I'm losing my mind or if TL seems to go crazy in 1st quarters statistically, and then slow down later in games.

TL stats by quarter:

1. 9.0 minutes, 3.1 points, 3.0 rebounds, 0.7 blocks
2. 6.7 minutes, 2.7 points, 2.4 rebounds, 0.5 blocks
3. 8.5 minutes, 2.3 points, 2.6 rebounds, 0.5 blocks
4. 6.8 minutes, 2.1 points, 1.9 rebounds, 0.6 blocks

His averages are the highest in the 1st quarter, but it seems to be mostly because he plays the most minutes in the 1st quarter.

*edit - here are his per 36 by quarter:

1. 12.6 points, 12.1 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 2.7 blocks
2. 14.7 points, 13.1 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 2.8 blocks
3. 9.9 points, 11.0 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 2.0 blocks
4. 11.2 points, 10.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 3.2 blocks

Overall per 36: 12.0 points, 11.7 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 2.7 blocks