I totally agree that they need a big bopper, and that big bopper will affect the rest of the offense, but I don't think it needs to be a Trout or Stanton level player. A solid 30HR/yr guy would do it, I think.The Sox need one hitter who inspires fear such as Machado, Trout, Stanton. I don't know who it should be, but this is a necessity going forward. The whole team would play closer to potential.
That's just a piece of it. Without factoring QO free agents into it, if you are 40% over, your highest pick moves back 10 spots. That's just a flat punishment for being that far over. (it's your 2nd pick if you have a top 6 pick in the draft).The draft pick penalty only applies to teams that go $40 million over the threshold.
The relevant parts for a team that pays into revenue sharing (like the Red Sox) are in bold. Until they shed some significant payroll, I don't think they're going to be involved in any "big signings."
- If a team gets revenue sharing and signs a player who received the qualifying offer, they would lose their third-highest draft pick.
- Teams that pay into the revenue-sharing pool will lose their second- and fifth-highest picks.
- Those rich teams would also lose $1 million from their international signing cap.
- The medium-market teams — the ones who don’t receive or pay revenue-sharing money — would give up their second-highest pick and $500,000 in international money.
- A team that loses a player who declines the qualifying offer before signing for $50 million or more will get a draft choice between the first and second round.
- If that player signs for less than $50 million, the pick will be after round B of the competitive-balance round, which is after the second round.
- Reminder that the Cardinals occasionally get extra picks in the competitive balance round, which is still just the stupidest thing.
- If a team is over the luxury-tax threshold, they’ll still get a pick for losing a top free agent, but it will be after the fourth round.
That big bopper can't be Devers? He just hit 10 HR in 58 games as a green 20-year-old rookie. That's nearly a 30-HR pace over a full season, and there were definitely periods of struggle in there where the league caught up to him. A few adjustments, some more experience, and he's a threat in the heart of the order.I totally agree that they need a big bopper, and that big bopper will affect the rest of the offense, but I don't think it needs to be a Trout or Stanton level player. A solid 30HR/yr guy would do it, I think.
You could add JBJ to that too...he was down this year a bit.Actually, that's a really good point. That big bopper could well be Devers. When he was hitting out of his mind, the whole team looked invincible this year. If he hits to hit potential, Benintendi continues to improve and 2 out of three of Mookie, Hanley and Xander get back to doing what we know they're capable of doing, they'll score some runs.
Edit: The more ridiculous thing about this thread is that we're all here talking like it's the offseason already. It's only been one game. They ain't dead yet.
Has the Theon Greyjoy comp already been made a thousand times?Anybody ever notice how much Buchholz looks like Cricket from It's Always Sunny?
JP Richardson is not walking through that door. And if he did he'd be dead.I totally agree that they need a big bopper, and that big bopper will affect the rest of the offense, but I don't think it needs to be a Trout or Stanton level player. A solid 30HR/yr guy would do it, I think.
Why? 'Cause of ONE little plane crash? psh.JP Richardson is not walking through that door. And if he did he'd be dead.
I've been saying that for years, i appreciate seeing the quote from someone else, even if it did come from the bottom of the barrel, oh, hi Nip!My cat’s breath smells like cat food
That's the thing, though. I don't think it's an interesting conversation at all. The team should tinker. This is a team prime for just a tinker. I don't think there's a valid argument otherwise right now. It's a team with a core of young, cost controlled players with huge upside.Sad thing is there is an interesting conversation probably about whether the team should tinker around the edges or pull more of a Celtics level approach (leverage assets into bigger/better ones), and it probably would make for a good topic, but not in the middle of the ALDS, and frankly not in reaction to last night.
Right -- it's going to depend on what kind of QO FAs and non-QO FAs will be available on the market. On the margins, it means that some QO FAs are more likely to re-sign with their current team, given the penalties on medium- and large-market teams, but overall the market probably doesn't change a whole lot.Edit: Actually, revenue sharing has nothing to do with the LT threshold, so the Sox would give up those picks whether they were above or not. So a chunk of my objection to the idea that they would go over is invalid. I still think, given how weak the farm system is, there will be hesitation, but it's probably not as unlikely as I had thought before now and would have nothing to do with current payroll.
Neither? I've said plenty about how overmatched the Sox are vs. the Astros, but the Yankees would potentially have to face Corey Kluber twice in the next four games just to make it to the next round.First question is, which team has a better chance to win it all in 2017 given the similar 0-1 situations.
The "Celtics level approach" doesn't really work in baseball. A basketball team can leverage a couple younger players and a couple draft picks for one player that makes the team better overall. Baseball teams can't really do that. No single player is ever going to be as impactful on a baseball team as a basketball team.Sad thing is there is an interesting conversation probably about whether the team should tinker around the edges or pull more of a Celtics level approach (leverage assets into bigger/better ones), and it probably would make for a good topic, but not in the middle of the ALDS, and frankly not in reaction to last night.
Can't speak to this year, but last year the Red Sox got bounced because they ran into a buzzsaw. That''s not "what went wrong", that's baseball. Can happen to any team.I think I should issue a mea culpa on the full rebuild. I do understand the difficulties inherent in rebuilding and maybe 4 6 3 DP is right and this conversation should be shelved after the Playoffs. That being said I do think Plympton is right. A retooling might be necessary. If the Sox get bumped from the Alds for the second year in a row I think a good hard look has to be taken at what went wrong. Last year it was the pitching and this year its the pitching and offense. Now maybe Devers is that 30 homerun hitter, but I think given the window the Sox are working with its too risky to put all the eggs in that basket. I am leaning towards signing someone like JD Martinez and trading JBJ, but I am weary about allocating more dollars and more years to a guy who is already 30. This team already has dead money in Panda. Hanely and Porcello are not earning their paychecks, how much ore money can be spent on players not contributing?
Thank you.I think I should issue a mea culpa on the full rebuild. I do understand the difficulties inherent in rebuilding and maybe 4 6 3 DP is right and this conversation should be shelved after the Playoffs. That being said I do think Plympton is right. A retooling might be necessary. If the Sox get bumped from the Alds for the second year in a row I think a good hard look has to be taken at what went wrong. Last year it was the pitching and this year its the pitching and offense. Now maybe Devers is that 30 homerun hitter, but I think given the window the Sox are working with its too risky to put all the eggs in that basket. I am leaning towards signing someone like JD Martinez and trading JBJ, but I am weary about allocating more dollars and more years to a guy who is already 30. This team already has dead money in Panda. Hanely and Porcello are not earning their paychecks, how much ore money can be spent on players not contributing?
The pitching was/is not an issue. A healthy David Price and/or E-Rod would have put them number two in team pitching WAR. As it was they finished 4th in that, as well as top 4 in ERA, FIP, and bb/9That being said I do think Plympton is right. A retooling might be necessary. If the Sox get bumped from the Alds for the second year in a row I think a good hard look has to be taken at what went wrong. Last year it was the pitching and this year its the pitching and offense. Now maybe Devers is that 30 homerun hitter, but I think given the window the Sox are working with its too risky to put all the eggs in that basket
Before or after the flaying?Has the Theon Greyjoy comp already been made a thousand times?
Carry on...
First off I just wanted to thank you and everyone else who participated in this thread without snark and condescension. Though many disagreed with the initial post this thread has lead to some interesting post. Its amazing what can happen when people are not intolerant. That being said it is sad that even the mods engage in ad hominem attacks. I think at this point there needs to be some serious soul searching for the Sox. This is the second year in the row where the pitching has flat out failed them in the postseason. Even if they get a big bat for the middle of the order, I am not comfortable going into a postseason with Price, Sale, Pomeranz, Erod and Porcello. They all seem to choke in big moments. For some of them it might be a small sample size, but given that this is the second year in the row it is happening, it is concerning.Thank you.
If not considering retooling after every season, you're probably not being the best you can be.
But there are limits in any given year. Interesting question raised by P91 is the extent to which what may be out there matches their needs. It may be that short of throwing financial considerations entirely out the window -- and that's not happening -- the RS simply won't match up well on paper going into 2018. In fact, it's probable.
And I'm fine with that. That's when you hope things break in your direction -- the offense gets better, Price does not need TJ.
When teams try to force what isn't there -- "goddammit, do something!" -- that's when they get into the most trouble. Money burning holes in our pockets begat Carl Crawford.
Basketball does not provide a road map necessarily, but give me some Danny Ainge patience.
I'm starting to wonder if they're behind the curve of Cleveland and Houston in analytics as well as talent. Back in the heyday it seemed like the Sox came into the postseason with distinct gameplans for successfully attacking other team's weaknesses. Grady Little was fired as much for discounting those plans in 2003 as he was for the incomprehensible decision making in Game 7.First off I just wanted to thank you and everyone else who participated in this thread without snark and condescension. Though many disagreed with the initial post this thread has lead to some interesting post. Its amazing what can happen when people are not intolerant. That being said it is sad that even the mods engage in ad hominem attacks. I think at this point there needs to be some serious soul searching for the Sox. This is the second year in the row where the pitching has flat out failed them in the postseason. Even if they get a big bat for the middle of the order, I am not comfortable going into a postseason with Price, Sale, Pomeranz, Erod and Porcello. They all seem to choke in big moments. For some of them it might be a small sample size, but given that this is the second year in the row it is happening, it is concerning.
Wait, what? I've seen people get suspended on this site for suggesting trades like this.I'm with you on the 3 CFers and the need to see 2017 as the JBJ offensive baseline. That's why I'd dangle him to the Marlins, almost straight up for Stanton and his contract. Put Stanton in the middle of the order, and you still have Betts and Benintendi for OF defense. The team becomes much better balanced. Then get a 1B or DH that deserves to hit 5th and you've gone a long way toward closing the talent gap with the other 7 playoff teams.
In Sale's instance, you must mean the first 85% of the season because ever since he became a starter in 2012 he has pitched poorly in the latter part of the season.We need both Price and Sale to be healthy and pitching at least 85% of the season.
What do you think makes it lopsided?Wait, what? I've seen people get suspended on this site for suggesting trades like this.
And I'm speaking as someone who is generally a fan of your work.
Can we get a couple low minors lottery tickets thrown in to sweeten the deal?I'm surprised no one suggested trading Sale for two top young prospects like Kopech and Moncada. That would definitely help the RS in years 2019-2022.
Don't you think the Marlins could get a TON more for Stanton than just JBJ?What do you think makes it lopsided?
The Marlins get three years of control of an above average regular who fits their budget, the Red Sox take the risk of having many years of huge dead money in return for the reward of having a superstar in the middle of their lineup.
Seems reasonable to me.
Maybe someone would. But he's on a market value contract, so no one should be all that willing to.Don't you think the Marlins could get a TON more for Stanton than just JBJ?
The idea that a team looking to deal a player on a market value contact shouldn't expect a big return is a long standing SoSH tradition but the real market doesn't work that way.Maybe someone would. But he's on a market value contract, so no one should be all that willing to.
I agree and this makes some sense. But where would he play? Back to the drawing board.Good enough to do what?
Personally I think they should sign Judge. The Sox need power and it would also hurt the Yankees.
DON'T TELL ME WHAT TO DO!!This is begging for a sacrifice.
A 'rebuild' for a team with cost-controlled stars (Sale, Mookie), a 20 year old rookie who shows great promise, another rookie who went 20/20 and would be a runaway ROY in any other year, and a 25 year old SS who with a down year is still top 10 in WAR in all of MLB at the position.
Yeah, these guys are over the hill, let's just cash them in for prospects.
This is a core you ADD to in order to close the gap, and since the luxury tax penalty has been reset, that is just what they will do.
This window is WIDE open for at least 2 more seasons if not more.
Lock this thread.
I feel exactly the same way as I did back when Matt Holiday was first on the market to replace Manny. Except now the Sox need to replace Big Papi.I totally agree that they need a big bopper, and that big bopper will affect the rest of the offense, but I don't think it needs to be a Trout or Stanton level player. A solid 30HR/yr guy would do it, I think.
I was actually thinking.... Joey Votto. The Reds are going nowhere fast. Votto is amazing, but he's making a lot of money (not a CRAZY amount per year in today's market - $25m/yr - but still, a lot of money) over a LONG period of time - he's still signed through 2023 - that's another 6 seasons, until he's 39. I know the Reds signed him to that huge contract, but part of why they did was to secure his prime years, knowing that he'll not likely be worth that money the last couple of years. Well, Votto signed that contract in April of 2012. They got his 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017 years out of him so far (ages 28-33). Those were his prime years. I don't know if they'd mind getting out from under the last six years of his contract, given that they'd be his age 34-39 years.I feel exactly the same way as I did back when Matt Holiday was first on the market to replace Manny. Except now the Sox need to replace Big Papi.
The team has a clear hole, and need a high-contact, high-power guy to anchor the middle of the order. Ideally, a LHH or switch-hitter. A low-AVG, low-OBP all-or-nothing slugger (such as Morrison) won’t really fix the problem. A RHH doesn’t address the lineup-balance problems which would be created, because then Farrell will tend to gratuitously slot a LHH who doesn’t belong there into the middle of the order (I’m looking at you, 2-bags).
The obvious solution is there, but not that easy. DDski has to find some way to wrangle Freddie Freeman from the Braves. Even though it will take real talent to do so.
That's the main reason I am on the Freddie Freeman train.I thought Joey Votto has been adamant he'd never waive his no trade.
I don't know if you meant that as sarcasm, or what, but in actuality it does not matter what player do after your team trades them. All that matters is how valuable they are perceived by potential trade partners. And in this case, Moncada was ranked as the 5th best prospect in baseball and Kopech, the 67th. ANd not only did the Red Sox pick up more salary with Sale, they still had to finish paying off Moncada's signing bonus.. Given all the money going out along with two ranked prospects and two other players, I'm wondering whether they could not have made a better trade.I'm surprised no one suggested trading Sale for two top young prospects like Kopech and Moncada. That would definitely help the RS in years 2019-2022.
Do you mean could they have gotten the White Sox to toss in a far away prospect with an intriguing ceiling (or two)? Yeah, probably. If you mean could they have gotten a better return than one of the top 5 pitchers on the planet on a preposterously under market deal? No. They couldn't have.I don't know if you meant that as sarcasm, or what, but in actuality it does not matter what player do after your team trades them. All that matters is how valuable they are perceived by potential trade partners. And in this case, Moncada was ranked as the 5th best prospect in baseball and Kopech, the 67th. ANd not only did the Red Sox pick up more salary with Sale, they still had to finish paying off Moncada's signing bonus.. Given all the money going out along with two ranked prospects and two other players, I'm wondering whether they could not have made a better trade.
Alternatively, we could just say that the minor league prospect ranking are completely worthless and never, ever bring them up on this board again.
Why would the Braves be interested in moving Freeman? They're about to get really really good and their long term payroll obligations are few. And Freeman is on a significantly below market deal. At least with Votto there's a chance the Red would be looking to dump the contract, even if Votto would need to be convinced to accept the trade.That's the main reason I am on the Freddie Freeman train.