Yeah...only other home opener options for NE would be Kansas City or Houston if it gets to that.
The Super Bowl Thread
- Thread starter tims4wins
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He's made plenty of good to great movies and has been working consistently since the mid 90s. There are probably about 4 actors in Hollywood today who wouldn't trade their career for Wahlberg's.
Why?
They only had 4 games where they scored 24 or less, but if you believe the weighted DVOA, the Patriots defense is the 2nd best defense they've played all year, the Patriots special teams are better than any special teams they've played all year, and the Patriots offense is better than any offense they've played all year.
This means they'll have less drive opportunities, and poorer starting field position than they've had all year. The Patriots have a better chance than anyone else had of holding them to that.
Have they already announced the roof will be open, without knowing the weather?
There are reports that they will open it absent bad weather. That might be the default position in any event. The NFL Network and the Comcast NE news show treated it as news. Your mileage may vary.
Listened to two podcasts so far and apparently the Pats have no chance. The hype around the 27th ranked Atlanta D is truly a sight to behold.
If the weather is good, is there any advantage to NE with roof being open? Am I missing something?
Atlanta is a dome team and the Pats are an outside team. Some have speculated that the dome being open is an advantage, however slight, for the Pats.
My initial point wasn't that it's a huge advantage. It was that it's somewhat noteworthy that Adolph Goodell is allowing it and perhaps an indication that he's going to play it straight. Which, in fact, is what I suspect, while nervously waiting for the Ben Dreith Moment.
They are a speed based unit built to play with a lead. They are undersized and suck against the run, but it hasn't bit them in the ass because opponents are often in catch up mode from the get go and have to throw the ball to try and keep up. The Pats have the personnel to attack that defense in pretty much any way they want, as, much like the Seahawks, they do what they do and aren't a gameplan team. I feel like it'll just come down to execution. If the OL plays a solid game, I don't see how the Pats could have trouble scoring.
I'm aware of each team's home field.
What I'm asking is what is the actual difference in playing conditions if this thing is open in good weather versus closed. It's the same playing surface, and if the weather is nice, the same basic atmospheric conditions.
Long term forecast is 75 degrees in Houston that day.
So far MMQB and NFL Ringer. Both Falcons heavy opinions.
I know that stopping the Atlanta offense will be a challenge, but it seems like everyone is outright dismissing what the Pats D has been able to do this season.
The NFL Ringer only talked about how Pitt would beat the Pats last week. I really like Mays but he seems he keeps getting caught focusing on the shinny thing.
I've listened to both of those podcasts (Sunday/Monday episodes), and in no way did I get the impression that anyone involved with either of them thinks "the Pats have no chance". Might want to turn the homer-o-meter down a few notches.
That's always been the narrative when it comes to the Pats. You've got Tom Brady on offense and a D that doesn't get any sacks. People don't believe the numbers when you don't have a Von Miller off the edge. Bend but don't break has worked for what, 20 or 30 years so for BB, but let's not take that into account. Haven't you heard? Atlanta has Vic Beasley. We've got no chance.
Yep. All true. As I said, the point wasn't whether the dome being open is IN FACT a Pats advantage. Some have noted that it MIGHT be given familiarity etc. And as I have already said, the point in my view is that Rappin Roger might also see some slight advantage to NE in having the roof open and is nevertheless allowing it, weather permitting.
To be crystal clear, with twelve days away, I view this as a very small aside. But as an obsessed Pats fan who has suffered his share of Ben Dreith Flashbacks, I will hold on tight to any fact that might suggest that this game will not come down to a Goodell Ordered Fuck Job on the Pats.
Oh, please. I understand the urge to build a fortress mentality ahead of any big game, but can we try to stay within the reality-based community in doing so? Most analysts think the Falcons have great offensive talent and a great offensive scheme that puts the talent to historically great use; it's no surprise, therefore, that even the Pats defense might struggle at times to contain it. I don't hear anyone - anyone with an opinion I value at all, anyway - saying that the Pats won't have any success against it, nor do I hear anyone even remotely suggesting that the Falcons can altogether stop the Patriots.
It's not just that.
Falcons average 33.8 ppg. The Pats with Brady averaged 30 ppg. That's a 3.8 point difference.
But on defense the Pats allow 15.6 ppg, while the Falcons allow 25.4, nearly a 10 point difference.
And yes, I know the Falcons defense has gotten better in second half of season, but that's a huge number.
Hey man, I like you, but you're in a Pats forum and you are going to go nuts reacting to every perceived affront. I'm gonna throw up a poll and let's see where the forum is as a whole.
I think it's delicious that the Pats offense is somehow being overlooked in favor of the all-Universe unstoppable Atlanta attack. The narrative, such as it is this early in the 2 week lead-up, is "can the Pats D handle Atlanta?" Brady is a master at weaponizing slights, no matter how small or inadvertent. I'm guessing he is processing this.
Dude, Goodell isn't ordering anything. You know what the absolute worst thing for the league, and by extension, him, would be? If there was anything at all that gave people another reason to stop caring about NFL football. The shitty performances in this post-season, so far, have to be bad news for the NFL. Now, they get a chance to redeem it all with a good Super Bowl. Some obviously half-assed bullshit penalty to hand the game to the Falcons would cement this postseason as a total loser for the league. Nobody, not even Roger himself, wants the story in two weeks to be "Did the Patriots get hosed because of Deflategate?"
Also, more generally: neutral and casual fans (who will be the vast majority of viewers) hate flags. It slows the game down and calls the game into question. That's my pet hypothesis as to why playoff games are more hands-off than the regular season, because the ratings are a lot higher and the game flows better. It's a showcase for fans that demonstrates the way football "should be" or "used to be" or whatever. People get a taste of fun football before the long spring/summer break, and that's what sticks with them through the offseason. And the league really wants this to be a good game, not a flag fest.
Been hearing a lot of the same theme: The Falcons defense is young and fast and battle-tested while the Pats defense is overrated since they haven't played good opposing QBs.
Fact is, neither team has faced a ton of great offenses this season: According to weighted DVOA, both teams have played four games against top 10 offenses and both teams are 4-0 against them. Flipped around, the Pats are 6-0 against top 10 defenses by weighted DVOA and the Falcons are 5-3.
Don't worry - I get it. And of course I know where I am...it's fun being on the other island for once, insofar as the Patriots are my (distant) second favorite team, and regardless it's awesome that I get to benefit from the generally great quality of analysis here when the ultimate game involves my team. Indeed, that's why I'm hoping to nudge the discussion away from hyperbole and toward levelheadedness. In any event, I'm not affronted or bothered.
Wow has this been true. There have only been 2 competitive games out of the 10, and both of those were on the same day.
Really? MMQB said that the Atlanta offense is top 5 all time, and better than the 2000-2001 Rams (the 2000 team also scored 540 points). The game was different back then and not so QB friendly. I find that comparison quite a stretch.
Goodell on Cowherd on FS1 right now..
Edit/update: Lame.. Started off with Q's about Patriots, relationship with Kraft and no real follow up as Roger danced around the subject.
Edit/update: Lame.. Started off with Q's about Patriots, relationship with Kraft and no real follow up as Roger danced around the subject.
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ESPN's Kevin Van Valkenburg pens a retrospective on Tom Brady and how he's viewed around the league. This part stuck out to me:
Do Brady and Suggs indeed have a history of mutual loathing? I thought they liked jawing at each other but I didn't think it was personal. Certainly don't remember anything significant about Brady going for Suggs' knees.
This is all perfectly rational.
I will cop to being paranoid. And having some irrational quasi-fears.
But I think we can all agree that the NFL's handling of DG was so ridiculously irrational that allowing for thoughts of more irrationality vis-a-vis the Patriots is, dare I say, at least a little bit rational. I mean, the Pats got horribly whacked for slight differences in air pressure on a cold, wet day, while Atlanta got a relative slap on the wrist for pumping in crowd noise, which really could confer an advantage on them. (More on that: http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/falcons-no-moral-high-ground-patriots-article-1.2954815). And as much as Goodell should indeed logically shy away from anything that could cast a pall over the NFL for the reasons you mention, he never once showed an ounce of emotional maturity or true leadership during DG. Moreover, he has to be as disgusted by the prospect of handing Kraft the Lombardi as we are excited by the schadenfreude potential.
So yes, I get everything you are saying, and have tried to convey that I truly do not expect any funny business...while not ruling it out, entirely. But after experiencing the Alice in Wonderland of the NFL for the last few years, how could anything be viewed as totally out of bounds?
Falcons: 3.6 TDs and 415 yards per game
Patriots w/Brady: 3.5 TDs and 400 yards per game
Shit is close.
It still blows my mind that people think Brady complains more than other QBs about flags. Brady is tough and just plays the game.
I am not shocked that no one mentioned cry-baby Rodgers and his punk face mask penalty as evidence of him being a whiner.
Manning may not have complained as much because the flag was as thrown for him if you looked at him the wrong way.
I don't think it's that far of a stretch. As a crude adjustment for point-scoring environment, Atlanta was 2.66 standard deviations above the average NFL team in terms of points scored (Falcons: 540 points, average: 364.4 points). That puts it 8th all-time, if I'm reading this Barnwell article right, just behind the 1997 Broncos and ahead of the 1983 Washington team. Now that doesn't take into account the relative number of defensive TDs scored or quality of opponents defenses faced. But still, that's pretty impressive.
If you look at DVOA to adjust for those two factors, the Falcons were at 25.3% DVOA for their offense, which is pretty close to the 25.6% DVOA for the 2001-2002 Rams but not close to the 31.4% that the 2000-2001 Rams got. (Incidentally, I found it interesting that DVOA doesn't think those Rams were in the top 20 all-time offenses.) I guess it depends on what you mean by a "stretch", but I certainly don't think it's wrong to speak of the Falcons as a historic offense.
I was surprised by the "he may not have the accuracy of Joe Montana" part. I get that Montana was terrific and had pin point control or whatever, but isn't Brady widely considered an extremely accurate passer?
I'm thinking that BB may pull out the Super Bowl XXV game plan from when the Giants beat the Bills. That year, the Bills had the #1 offense and the Giants the #1 Defense. But the key to the Giants victory was in large part the work of their offense.
Considering the Falcons' deficiencies against the run, I wonder if we see a lot of Develin, Lengel and Fleming, and a heavy dose of Blount Force Trauma.
This would also play into Reiss's recent column about how the Pats like to mix things up on offense. We really haven't seen the big, heavy, run approach since two years ago against the Colts. If the Falcons think they will see a reprise of last week's offense, it might be the time to switch that up.
Comparing raw numbers in completely different eras doesn't tell much. Montana's completion %+ which adjusts for era is 124 - Brady's is 111. Brady's number is still excellent and there's no shame being below Montana, but his accuracy was on another level.
I don't think ATL would be surprised by the power game at this point, in fact they should be expecting it. The question is whether they can do anything about it, and also what wrinkles the Pats can add in terms of play action, misdirection or new formations out of the heavy group.
I think you might also see them running out of 11 personnel with Edelman as a blocking threat in the slot. If you do that with Lewis and Bennett you can mix run / pass and use a lot of motions effectively. I would certainly expect plenty of heavy stuff, and PA off it when it works, but I see no reason you can't run against their sub packages too.
All BB could talk about yesterday was how fast the Falcons are; what he won't talk about is how small they are--and inexperienced.
So they run at the small D, tire them out, and keep Ryan off the field. But most interesting, I think, will be how they try to confuse
them in the passing game. I thought Quinn alluded to this in talking about how huge the Patriot playbook is. I don't think he's happy
about trying to prepare them for the multiple looks.
So they run at the small D, tire them out, and keep Ryan off the field. But most interesting, I think, will be how they try to confuse
them in the passing game. I thought Quinn alluded to this in talking about how huge the Patriot playbook is. I don't think he's happy
about trying to prepare them for the multiple looks.
"He undercut the route".
NFLN aired a top 10 interceptions of all time thing and Malcolm's was #1 of course, "and no other one remotely close" (#2 was James Harrison's 99 yarder against Arizona). Anyway, Malcolm's INT was treated with love in every way and I don't think I've ever seen so much time spent on it. I don't see this top 10 coming up again on NFLN. On googling it, I found a version with just Malcolm's INT, which was 4+ minutes long.
Right. I am sure Quinn has vivid memories of the Pats putting up 28 on his Seahawks. That was a far, far, far better defense than the one he will be running out there in 11 days. And the Pats offense is probably on a fairly similar level. No Gronk, but better RBs / WRs and possibly OL