The premature re-signing Lester thread

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Al Zarilla

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nattysez said:
 
Unless the "Peavy package" is real and the Cubs tell him they'll also sign Peavy.  Or unless he really wants to start pitching closer to his current home in Georgia and the Braves also agree to sign Peavy.  
Chicago to Georgia vs. Boston to Georgia? Maybe 40 minutes difference one way on the plane would matter?
 

someoneanywhere

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joe dokes said:
 
Its neither desperation, nor backtracking. Neither Ramirez nor Sandoval were available last winter. The "philosophy" that everyone seems to think that the Sox "abandoned" never existed, except in the minds of people that demand that a team have a "philosophy" or "plan" which can be boiled to some sort of three sentence mantra.
 
They haven't "devalued" anything. It doesn't matter what the Red Sox think of their prospects. The Sox may think JBJ is the next Garry Maddox, but if a trading partner doesn't, then too bad. Conversely, the Sox might think internally that JBJ is the next Dwayne Hosey, but if a trading partner sees Maddox, then its off to the trade room.  Some team can think that Will Middlebrooks can be a low OBP plus SLG% 3Bman even if the Sox think the ship has sailed.  Teams trade guys all the time who they think suck, who turn out not to suck, but its not like they walk into the room and say "its official, Middlebrooks blows, first bag of balls gets him."
I'm quoting this as representative of several of you running the Internet Front Office, and not to pick on you personally. But seriously: you guys save the lectures. I am pretty confident I have a pretty good idea of the kinds of discussions that go on, and the kinds of phone calls that are made, once these kinds of deals are consummated.
 

JohntheBaptist

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someoneanywhere said:
I'm quoting this as representative of several of you running the Internet Front Office, and not to pick on you personally. But seriously: you guys save the lectures. I am pretty confident I have a pretty good idea of the kinds of discussions that go on, and the kinds of phone calls that are made, once these kinds of deals are consummated.
 
 

nattysez

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Al Zarilla said:
OK, Braves sign both. Are the Braves in on Lester though? 
 
yep
 
 While free-agent pitcher Jon Lester was in Atlanta on Thursday, listening to theAtlanta Braves make their pitch, free-agent third baseman Pablo Sandoval was still waiting to receive an offer from the Boston Red Sox, according to his brother and co-agent, Michael Sandoval. 
 
 
http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/41154/braves-court-lester-sandoval-awaits-offers
 

joe dokes

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joe dokes said:
Its neither desperation, nor backtracking. Neither Ramirez nor Sandoval were available last winter. The "philosophy" that everyone seems to think that the Sox "abandoned" never existed, except in the minds of people that demand that a team have a "philosophy" or "plan" which can be boiled to some sort of three sentence mantra.

They haven't "devalued" anything. It doesn't matter what the Red Sox think of their prospects. The Sox may think JBJ is the next Garry Maddox, but if a trading partner doesn't, then too bad. Conversely, the Sox might think internally that JBJ is the next Dwayne Hosey, but if a trading partner sees Maddox, then its off to the trade room. Some team can think that Will Middlebrooks can be a low OBP plus SLG% 3Bman even if the Sox think the ship has sailed. Teams trade guys all the time who they think suck, who turn out not to suck, but its not like they walk into the room and say "its official, Middlebrooks blows, first bag of balls gets him."
 
someoneanywhere said:
I'm quoting this as representative of several of you running the Internet Front Office, and not to pick on you personally. But seriously: you guys save the lectures. I am pretty confident I have a pretty good idea of the kinds of discussions that go on, and the kinds of phone calls that are made, once these kinds of deals are consummated.
 
I don't tak anything here personally, even if it is intended to be so, but I'm not sure why the original post is an example of what you're complaining about. You used the terms "backtracking," "desperation" and "devaluing." I disagree. I could have just said, "No, they didn't do any of those 3 things," but I tried to explain why I didn't think so.
 
Anyway...back to regularly scheduled programming ......
 

Lynchie

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The heck with those guys. We wait too long on Jon and it will not end well. The Sox need to move in for the kill or move on.
 

geoduck no quahog

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Lester grew up in the Red Sox organization.
 
It was the Red Sox who stood by him every step of the way during his illness.
 
He knows all (most) of the Red Sox players and management. (Yes, he also knows Theo)
 
The Red Sox provided him with the mutually beneficial trade to Oakland, giving Lester a real opportunity to pitch in the World Series again.
 
The Red Sox also gave Lester an opportunity to test the FA market (I don't believe most stories about the seriousness of the spring offer), with a pat on the back to tell him, "go see what the market offers, and we'll talk"
 
The goodbye from Fenway was filled with good feelings and hugs all around.
 
Lester could retire as a Red Sock. He (obviously) could get more rings in Boston. Getting rings in Chicago or Atlanta means a waiting game...for an aging pitcher.
 
I have to think Lester's coming back. 
 

strek1

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Lynchie said:
The heck with those guys. We wait too long on Jon and it will not end well. The Sox need to move in for the kill or move on.
  THIS
 
Plus he has something going for him that other available pitchers don't.  He and we KNOW he can get it done in Boston and in the Post Season.   
 

chrisfont9

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Lynchie said:
The heck with those guys. We wait too long on Jon and it will not end well. The Sox need to move in for the kill or move on.
Are they waiting? I thought they spent the last two days actively negotiating with him. Maybe you mean they're waiting on giving in to whatever demands are holding this up. Give in Sox! [Um, well, up to a point.]
 

E5 Yaz

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Hank Scorpio said:
Honestly, is there any chance LL lets Theo take Lester?
 
This is the endgame in a nutshell. Lester obviously will make the decision, but this subplot is where the heat is
 

glennhoffmania

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I don't think a possible 14m difference should be so easily dismissed. If we're talking a couple million maybe he'd take less to go back to Boston. But I think hoping that he'll take 6/130 over 6/144 is pretty naive. Hopefully I'm wrong.
 

soxhop411

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“@bradfo: John Henry when asked if he's optimistic about signing Lester: 'I am. I'm hopeful'”
 

FelixMantilla

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Okay, now we've reached truly stupid money.
 
If Lester prefers the Cubs for $5 million more than the Sox are offering, just let him go.
 

curly2

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geoduck no quahog said:
The Red Sox also gave Lester an opportunity to test the FA market (I don't believe most stories about the seriousness of the spring offer), with a pat on the back to tell him, "go see what the market offers, and we'll talk"
 
 
The Sox were KILLED for the lowball offer in the spring. You really think they did that as a favor to him?
 

glennhoffmania

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So this is going to end at 6/150 for someone, huh?

So which is better- Lester at 6/110 or Lester at 6/150 plus Cespedes?
 

rodderick

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glennhoffmania said:
I don't think a possible 14m difference should be so easily dismissed. If we're talking a couple million maybe he'd take less to go back to Boston. But I think hoping that he'll take 6/130 over 6/144 is pretty naive. Hopefully I'm wrong.
 
This is where I am as well. 14 million is more significant for the player than for the team. If one of the parties should be expected to concede in this deal, it isn't Lester. If it's truly a question of 6/130 and 6/144 I won't blame him if he takes the latter offer.
 

E5 Yaz

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pjr said:
 
Jake Wesley MLB @mlb_nl_al  ·  8s 8 seconds ago

SOURCE: Red Sox are debating whether or not to extend higher offer on Jon Lester.If they do, @ColbyGuarino reports the offer would be 145mil

 
 
Can we guess that Colby is basing this on the report that the Cubs offered $144, and therefore a new Boston offer would be "higher"?
 
I mean, seriously, who the hell is talking to these kids?
 

E5 Yaz

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Cellar-Door said:
At a certain point you hae to let him walk and get Scotty B on the phone.
 
Except that Boras will want more for Scherzer than what Lester gets. And there will be more serious players
 

E5 Yaz

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southshoresoxfan said:
Does Schrezer get less or more than Lester? Starting to wonder if 6/120 for Schrezer is the better value here if Lester pushes 150
 
Of course it is. But there isn't a chance that he'll be getting less than the 6/144 he turned down a year ago
 

rodderick

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southshoresoxfan said:
Does Schrezer get less or more than Lester? Starting to wonder if 6/120 for Schrezer is the better value here if Lester pushes 150
 
Well, it's been widely reported that Scherzer turned down 6/144 from the Tigers, so I really doubt 6/120 would be enough to get him. 
 

Cellar-Door

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E5 Yaz said:
 
Except that Boras will want more for Scherzer than what Lester gets. And there will be more serious players
Scherzer is probably the better pitcher, so it really depends how much more Scherzer can get. The two big advantages of Lester were that he's been here before and he was going to be cheaper. If he's not much cheaper the afvantages start to look slim.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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glennhoffmania said:
So this is going to end at 6/150 for someone, huh?

So which is better- Lester at 6/110 or Lester at 6/150 plus Cespedes?
It's more like 6/150 plus Cespedes and a competitive balance pick. The pick is significant because it mitigates the loss off the second round pick the team lost for signing Hanley.
 

ivanvamp

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rodderick said:
 
Well, it's been widely reported that Scherzer turned down 6/144 from the Tigers, so I really doubt 6/120 would be enough to get him. 
Given what it looks like Lester will get I agree. But in principle it's entirely possible that the market changed, and not in Scherzer's favor. By turning it down he took a gamble. Sometimes gambles don't work out.
 

moondog80

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glennhoffmania said:
So this is going to end at 6/150 for someone, huh?

So which is better- Lester at 6/110 or Lester at 6/150 plus Cespedes?
 
 
What Lester might have accepted in March is water under the bridge.  They guessed wrong, and Lester had an ERA+ of 155 after two years of 110 and 87.
 

chrisfont9

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E5 Yaz said:
 
Of course it is. But there isn't a chance that he'll be getting less than the 6/144 he turned down a year ago
The delay in Scherzer action is looking like a nice gamble. The 6/144 thing (plus his performance) all helps create the perception that Scherzer is the better pitcher, so when Lester's thing plays out and inflates past 6/150, Scherzer uses that as his starting point to open the bidding. I don't always think Boras is so great, but he's playing this one well.
 
Edit: And I'm not sure how ivanamp comes to the opposite conclusion but maybe I'm wrong. Does Lester's inflated value actually bring Scherzer's down? I don't get that.
 

MakMan44

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Snodgrass said:
It's more like 6/150 plus Cespedes and a competitive balance pick. The pick is significant because it mitigates the loss off the second round pick the team lost for signing Hanley.
Didn't they lose it with the Pablo signing?

They're already down 2 picks, shooting a 3rd starts to really impact their pool, right?

Edit: The 3rd pick would be Max over Lester, for the record.
 

soxhop411

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Hmmmm


“@GDubCub: Source: Report that Cubs offered Lester a six-year deal of more than $135m is "not accurate."”
 

Tyrone Biggums

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MakMan44 said:
Didn't they lose it with the Pablo signing?

They're already down 2 picks, shooting a 3rd starts to really impact their pool, right?

Edit: The 3rd pick would be Max over Lester, for the record.
I believe the competitive balance picks are protected
 

StuckOnYouk

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Snoop Soxy Dogg

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FelixMantilla said:
Okay, now we've reached truly stupid money.
 
If Lester prefers the Cubs for $5 million more than the Sox are offering, just let him go.
 
This is where I am. This has terrible contract written all over it. At $150m, thank him for services rendered and let him go to the Cubs. And no, it's not my money.  
 

ivanvamp

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chrisfont9 said:
The delay in Scherzer action is looking like a nice gamble. The 6/144 thing (plus his performance) all helps create the perception that Scherzer is the better pitcher, so when Lester's thing plays out and inflates past 6/150, Scherzer uses that as his starting point to open the bidding. I don't always think Boras is so great, but he's playing this one well.
 
Edit: And I'm not sure how ivanamp comes to the opposite conclusion but maybe I'm wrong. Does Lester's inflated value actually bring Scherzer's down? I don't get that.
No I'm agreeing that in this case Scherzer will do better than what he turned down, IMO. But I'm just saying that in principle, just because a person turns down an offer, doesn't mean that a bigger one is automatically going to be there right months later. Scherzer took a gamble. I think it'll pay off for him. But it doesn't always.
 

Snoop Soxy Dogg

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moondog80 said:
 
 
What Lester might have accepted in March is water under the bridge.  They guessed wrong, and Lester had an ERA+ of 155 after two years of 110 and 87.
 
Seriously. People should let it go.
 
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