The off-season

MikeM

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Reddick to Astros. And the Yankees' trade of McCann (also to Houston) and the cost savings that goes with it increases the chance that they go after Beltran in earnest. We've seen that movie before. Next?
Well, that extra year is a little more then I'd of been open to spending on Reddick anyway.

Agreed that could be a dagger blow on our chances with Beltran though. Last I read he bought and maintains a $9m pad with his wife in NYC. Good game if that still holds true and they want him.

Beltran/Morales/Reddick were my 1/2/3 out of free agency. Hoping DD has that inner Theo/Ben in him and doesn't panic into signing EE.
 

jimbobim

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Pass Pass Pass

2 years and a bidding war on leadership ? My gut says Sox are being used to draw up price

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/2016/11/drellich_red_sox_yankees_may_battle_over_carlos_beltran

While Encarnacion is probably going to require a four-year commitment at minimum, Beltran is older and closer to retirement, but still playing at a high level. He comes with less money, less years — maybe two? — and yes, perhaps less production. But, the Sox had the best offense in baseball this past season, so they should be able to live with a slight drop-off.

But Beltran also has a leadership intangible that makes him alluring for a young team like the Astros and for the Sox, who are losing Big Papi’s presence. Encarnacion, who turns 34 in January, is a positive clubhouse presence as well, just not to the same extent.

Encarnacion, despite being a better hitter, could then end up a consolation prize for the team that loses out on Beltran.

Some teams, but not all, are waiting to see how the collective bargaining agreement shakes out, slowing the free-agent process for some.

When it comes to the Sox, though, remember how wealthy this club is, and how deliberate president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski can be.

If Dombrowski wanted Encarnacion badly enough, the Sox could afford him at his asking price. Clearly, the Sox don’t. But Encarnacion, like sluggers before him, eventually will find someone willing to pay a high enough price — his bat’s too good to sit and see his market shrivel too far down.
 

grimshaw

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Swihart gets lost in the shuffle but going into 2015 he was a top 20 prospect in all of baseball. He improved year over year in the minors, and started to show some serious power in Portland during his 2014 season. He was rushed to the Majors in 2015 and surprisingly held his own and got better as the season went along. In his seriously limited 2016 campaign, he had a 14.6% walk rate in AAA+MLB, his MLB rate at 14.9% before getting injured. Granted that isn't going to stick, but prior to 2016, his career walk rate was 7.4%. If he really has improved his eye, and the power continues to improve, I don't see why he wouldn't be considered a candidate to be an above average at bat regardless of position.
This needs to be his year. He'll be 25 in early April and he had his development set back a ton by being jerked around and injury.

I love him as much as anyone and assumed he'd already be Posey-ing-lite now like scouts thought, but really his performance isn't close to the scouting yet, even on the defensive side.

If we really want to talk about 74 plate appearances last year where his bb% bumped up, then we also have to say that he had no improvement in power with 3 XBH and slugging .355 with an OPS+ of 91. I hope we can't really glean anything from that.

To date, he has had 1849 PA in the minors and majors and is slashing .337/.411/.748. That would be wonderful for a catcher, but really kind of meh overall if the defense and play calling doesn't catch up. Personally, I think the development staff botched it big time and now I'm not sure he'll ever hit his ceiling - at least in this organization.

I'm rooting for him. I hope he takes big steps forward defensively at catcher, because that is going to determine his overall value to the club, since there is no room in the OF and many future options at 1b with Devers and Moncada needing to shake things out by 2018 or so. Unless he turns into Carlos Santana who can also play 3B or something along those lines.
 
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johnnywayback

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Has anyone brought up Eric Thames yet? Had a middling career stateside but has torn up the KBO and is now apparently coming home. Shouldn't cost a ton and would be a nice high-upside play for a team that has a pretty decent backup plan in whichever of Shaw/Sandoval isn't the starting 3B.
 

Rovin Romine

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What with the election and the Sox run this year and the improvement of the core of young players, and the general solidity of the roster, I can't think of an off-season I've paid less attention to, or been less excited about. (I'm excited for next season, but there's no great anticipation that we get a club-transforming player, etc.)
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Kyle Martin and Luis Ysla added to the 40 man this morning. Could Martin be a pen possibility?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Kyle Martin and Luis Ysla added to the 40 man this morning. Could Martin be a pen possibility?
I'm sure he's in the mix, at least as a shuttle guy. Though these two adds to the 40-man are more about protecting Rule V eligible guys than what their role in 2017 is expected to be.
 

TonyPenaNeverJuiced

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Kyle Martin and Luis Ysla added to the 40 man this morning. Could Martin be a pen possibility?
Why not Ysla (or Jerez)? For LHP RP we have a guy who seems to be trustworthy in Robbie Ross II, someone who scares us in Abad, someone we might have hope for in Robby Scott, and then 4 SPs who may end up in pen roles (Pom, ERod, Elias, Owens). Even if you only carry Ross as a RP, for a backup you have to hope Abad is not so terrible, hope that Scott can actually be an MLBer, and hope that someone in that SP group can make the transition. They have to be hoping that one of Ysla or Jerez can put in a good enough start in AAA to consider a bus ride if Ross (or anyone) goes down for a time.
 

chrisfont9

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Apparently Olney says Sonny Gray is very much on the market. I wouldn't know where to even start to gauge his price. BABIP wasn't very nice to him, and his K rate was the usual, but I'd have to know a lot more about why he just put up a sub-replacement level season before being interested.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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I've been saying how much I hate Buccholz in this thread, and I stand by it. Another cheaper option just signed with the Rangers. Andrew Cashner got $10 mil on a one year make good deal.

What has me more concerned is that Dombrowski has historically said exactly what he's going to do and I don't think his statements this year have been enough. He said he wanted an 8th inning guy. Best case scenario is a trade for Andrew Miller. The next option would be signing Greg Holland. Personally, I think this team's best chance at success is getting Holland and another relief ace (Miller, Jansen or Chapman).

Any resources that are wasted on things other than pitching would be totally superfluous right now.
 

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I've been saying how much I hate Buccholz in this thread, and I stand by it. Another cheaper option just signed with the Rangers. Andrew Cashner got $10 mil on a one year make good deal.

What has me more concerned is that Dombrowski has historically said exactly what he's going to do and I don't think his statements this year have been enough. He said he wanted an 8th inning guy. Best case scenario is a trade for Andrew Miller. The next option would be signing Greg Holland. Personally, I think this team's best chance at success is getting Holland and another relief ace (Miller, Jansen or Chapman).

Any resources that are wasted on things other than pitching would be totally superfluous right now.
First of all, if you're going to continue to be a one note poster, take the time to spell the guy's name right. It's Buchholz, and always has been.
Second, Andrew Cashner is a bad pitcher, even pitching in San Diego. What exactly is it about his career that would make him seem like an even trade for Buchholz, much less an upgrade?
Finally, what rationale could there possibly be for Cleveland trading Miller?
 

the moops

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I've been saying how much I hate Buccholz in this thread, and I stand by it. Another cheaper option just signed with the Rangers. Andrew Cashner got $10 mil on a one year make good deal.
Andrew Cashner was a worse pitcher than Clay last year. He was also worse in 2015, and 2013. He has pitched a few more innings over the past 4 years, but he has only been better than Clay one year. I can understand wanting totaking a chance on Cashner. What I can not understand is not wanting to take a similar chance on Buchholz? Is is the 3 million dollar difference that is the deal breaker?
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Finally, what rationale could there possibly be for Cleveland trading Miller?
There has been speculation in the media that they might move him (apologies, don't have time to find a link at the moment). I agree it seems dumb, but I think the rationale that most who have proposed use is that he takes up a very large chunk of a small payroll and they could presumably recoup 80-90% of the prospect value they spent to acquire him.

Not saying I agree or that the Sox should be the team to pay that freight, just that it's out there. I'll look for specific articles when I get home from work tonight.
 

Adrian's Dome

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Apparently Olney says Sonny Gray is very much on the market. I wouldn't know where to even start to gauge his price. BABIP wasn't very nice to him, and his K rate was the usual, but I'd have to know a lot more about why he just put up a sub-replacement level season before being interested.
This is a guy I'd sniff around on, if the price is reasonable (laugh and walk away if they ask for Moncada.) Very good chance his down year was injury/luck (little of column A, little of column B) related, and although he's not an ace, he's still a very good pitcher that would increase depth and flexibility with our rotation, and would slot in perfectly behind Cy and Price.

Wonder what they're thinking for a price. They could've had a king's ransom for him last offseason, but this would be the epitome of selling low.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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There has been speculation in the media that they might move him (apologies, don't have time to find a link at the moment). I agree it seems dumb, but I think the rationale that most who have proposed use is that he takes up a very large chunk of a small payroll and they could presumably recoup 80-90% of the prospect value they spent to acquire him.

Not saying I agree or that the Sox should be the team to pay that freight, just that it's out there. I'll look for specific articles when I get home from work tonight.
Wow--thanks. That's genuinely shocking to me.
 

JesusQuintana

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Andrew Cashner was a worse pitcher than Clay last year. He was also worse in 2015, and 2013. He has pitched a few more innings over the past 4 years, but he has only been better than Clay one year. I can understand wanting totaking a chance on Cashner. What I can not understand is not wanting to take a similar chance on Buchholz? Is is the 3 million dollar difference that is the deal breaker?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contract

The "chance" in this would have been not taking the option, and hoping you could get (edit) a pitcher as good as or better than (end edit) Clay for less than Cashner. In baseball economics, $3m is almost negligible, and it is damn near impossible to predict in this free agent market.
 
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chrisfont9

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This is a guy I'd sniff around on, if the price is reasonable (laugh and walk away if they ask for Moncada.) Very good chance his down year was injury/luck (little of column A, little of column B) related, and although he's not an ace, he's still a very good pitcher that would increase depth and flexibility with our rotation, and would slot in perfectly behind Cy and Price.

Wonder what they're thinking for a price. They could've had a king's ransom for him last offseason, but this would be the epitome of selling low.
Right, and I have a hunch (based on the usual nothing) that they aren't actually planning to sell low. I suspect they will put out the rumors, then wait and see if a market for Gray gets heated up. So if he can be had, it probably won't be for anyone we could stomach trading, unless we were sure he would resume his old form (also not possible).

[Edit] Adding, I guess my hunch is actually based on something -- the relative scarcity of available quality starting pitching, which could drive up prices even beyond their typically unreasonable levels.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Right, and I have a hunch (based on the usual nothing) that they aren't actually planning to sell low. I suspect they will put out the rumors, then wait and see if a market for Gray gets heated up. So if he can be had, it probably won't be for anyone we could stomach trading, unless we were sure he would resume his old form (also not possible).

[Edit] Adding, I guess my hunch is actually based on something -- the relative scarcity of available quality starting pitching, which could drive up prices even beyond their typically unreasonable levels.
I agree with this. I think because of the dearth of quality starting pitching on the free agent market (and what is there is going fast), we're going to be seeing and hearing all kinds of names being floated on the trade rumor mill. Some of it will be teams tossing their guy's name out there to see what kind of bites they can get, and some of it (like all the talk out of Atlanta this week) will essentially be GMs cold-calling about pitcher X and pitcher Y just to see if they can shake something loose...perhaps pitcher Z.

Either way, prices are likely to be sky-high and the end result will probably be very few top end guys actually moving anywhere. But I'm sure plenty of ink will be spilled and bandwidth burned in the meantime.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Cleveland just lost an extra inning World Series 7th game to a really good Cubs team. They're thisclose. And they'll be getting Carrasco, Salazar and Brantley back.

They'd be colossal idiots to trade Miller just to recoup prospects. They could trade him to fill a MLB roster hole or two, I suppose, but not without opening up a "relief ace" hole that he filled extremely well.

There might be media speculation, but Cleveland's window is open right now. It's not the time to deal prized assets away. IMO, the our chances of trading for Miller are as close to zero as you can get.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Right, and I have a hunch (based on the usual nothing) that they aren't actually planning to sell low. I suspect they will put out the rumors, then wait and see if a market for Gray gets heated up. So if he can be had, it probably won't be for anyone we could stomach trading, unless we were sure he would resume his old form (also not possible).

[Edit] Adding, I guess my hunch is actually based on something -- the relative scarcity of available quality starting pitching, which could drive up prices even beyond their typically unreasonable levels.
They're not going to sell low. They'd be better off hanging on to him, letting him bounce back in the first half and then putting him back on the market.

For as much as he was due to regress negatively before last year, he is due to regress positively after 2016. The difference between his ERA and FIP was a touch more than 1, and between his ERA and xFIP was something like 1.5 (looked it up earlier today, but can't check again right now for the specific numbers.

He's not as bad as he looked last year, so I'm guessing Beane isn't actually going to move him this winter.
 

moondog80

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They're not going to sell low. They'd be better off hanging on to him, letting him bounce back in the first half and then putting him back on the market.

For as much as he was due to regress negatively before last year, he is due to regress positively after 2016. The difference between his ERA and FIP was a touch more than 1, and between his ERA and xFIP was something like 1.5 (looked it up earlier today, but can't check again right now for the specific numbers.

He's not as bad as he looked last year, so I'm guessing Beane isn't actually going to move him this winter.

Unless they think he's really not that good, last year was just his luck catching up to him (in part anyway), and they want to deal him while people still think he's the guys he was before this year.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Unless they think he's really not that good, last year was just his luck catching up to him (in part anyway), and they want to deal him while people still think he's the guys he was before this year.
So they want to sell on him before people realize he's not an ace so they can get the best return possible and the way they are going to do that is by selling low? Right...
 

moondog80

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So they want to sell on him before people realize he's not an ace so they can get the best return possible and the way they are going to do that is by selling low? Right...
It won't be selling low if he stinks next year.
 

MikeM

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I've been saying how much I hate Buccholz in this thread, and I stand by it. Another cheaper option just signed with the Rangers. Andrew Cashner got $10 mil on a one year make good deal.
While I'm in total agreement that picking up Buchholz's option is probably going to play out to be a huge off season blunder, you are reaching pretty hard there imo on what type of ideal replacement should of been targeted in the event DD went down that road. Our 2017 rotation essentially already has two "upside" guys slated in behind Price/Porcello. Three if we wanted to save ourselves the $13m and simply project Wright as our 5th guy going into the winter.

What we needed was an average to decent guy who was a fairly good bet to stay healthy, eat up some innings, and maybe most importantly help steer us away from a probability that we need to make another controversial midseason trade to keep our playoff hopes afloat if/when the unpredictable bad breaks happen.

Taking the risk you could dig one up and then fall back on Wright this spring if you didn't was worth it imo. Having that guy be Cashner, or a roll of the dice on a 42yo like Dickey staying healthy/effective, basically defeats the whole logic on why you decline that option in the first place.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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It won't be selling low if he stinks next year.
How is that relevant? You are arguing that in order to move him while his value is still up, they might sell low. It's nonsensical. They are either selling him as the guy he appeared to be before 2016 or they are selling low. They literally can't do both.
 

moondog80

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How is that relevant? You are arguing that in order to move him while his value is still up, they might sell low. It's nonsensical. They are either selling him as the guy he appeared to be before 2016 or they are selling low. They literally can't do both.
If 2017 is a repeat of 2016, will his value go down, go up, or stay the same?
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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If 2017 is a repeat of 2016, will his value go down, go up, or stay the same?
This has absolutely no relevance to this:

Unless they think he's really not that good, last year was just his luck catching up to him (in part anyway), and they want to deal him while people still think he's the guys he was before this year.
Your position is that they want to sell on him while teams still think he might be the guy he was before 2016, and that they would try to do that by selling low. These two things are antithetical. They cannot exist in the same deal. Whether his value might go down further with another shitty season could not be less relevant.
 

moondog80

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I don't want onto keep going on about this so let me just restate it this way; if his value in April was 10, they might still be able to have bidding war that gets him to 8 or 9. Which they would take if they think his decline was real, because if it's real his value is 4.
 

MikeM

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The reality that Brett Cecil was going to take a 4 year commitment at decent money is a pretty good example of why I'm little less freaked out right now about the idea of paying the premium on Jansen over 5.
 

geoduck no quahog

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The Yankees showed that having a couple of premier relievers is the new currency in baseball.

Either they get you a huge lead by July, or some contending team will most definitely overpay bigly for the opportunity to close out the season...a great way to quickly restock your farm system after trading half your prospects away.
 

Plympton91

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WMB was nothing like Shaw, was playing at a more advanced age younger than Shaw, only spent part of 1 year in Portland instead of 3, walked way less and profiled to be a much better defensive player. WMB was supposed to actually have a major league career and be a potential GG winner. Travis Shaw was an afterthought. Both players are incredibly streaky though. I doubt they could get much for Shaw at all. He's a platoon player and he's not a particularly good one.
Sounds a lot like how JD Martinez was viewed by the Houston Astros after 2013. Or what the Pirates and Phillies though about Brandon Moss.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Sounds a lot like how JD Martinez was viewed by the Houston Astros after 2013. Or what the Pirates and Phillies though about Brandon Moss.
Even Brandon Moss made a top 100 list though and JD played 55 games in the majors at age 23 so they aren't really comparable either. Even if Travis Shaw ends up as JD Martinez, he still wasn't a comparable prospect to any of these guys. He's already better than WMB so he has that going for him.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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First of all, if you're going to continue to be a one note poster, take the time to spell the guy's name right. It's Buchholz, and always has been.
Second, Andrew Cashner is a bad pitcher, even pitching in San Diego. What exactly is it about his career that would make him seem like an even trade for Buchholz, much less an upgrade?
Finally, what rationale could there possibly be for Cleveland trading Miller?
Andrew Cashner was a worse pitcher than Clay last year. He was also worse in 2015, and 2013. He has pitched a few more innings over the past 4 years, but he has only been better than Clay one year. I can understand wanting totaking a chance on Cashner. What I can not understand is not wanting to take a similar chance on Buchholz? Is is the 3 million dollar difference that is the deal breaker?
While I'm in total agreement that picking up Buchholz's option is probably going to play out to be a huge off season blunder, you are reaching pretty hard there imo on what type of ideal replacement should of been targeted in the event DD went down that road. Our 2017 rotation essentially already has two "upside" guys slated in behind Price/Porcello. Three if we wanted to save ourselves the $13m and simply project Wright as our 5th guy going into the winter.

What we needed was an average to decent guy who was a fairly good bet to stay healthy, eat up some innings, and maybe most importantly help steer us away from a probability that we need to make another controversial midseason trade to keep our playoff hopes afloat if/when the unpredictable bad breaks happen.

Taking the risk you could dig one up and then fall back on Wright this spring if you didn't was worth it imo. Having that guy be Cashner, or a roll of the dice on a 42yo like Dickey staying healthy/effective, basically defeats the whole logic on why you decline that option in the first place.
First and foremost, my bad for spelling Buchholz wrong. It happens, it's easy to do, but if I can spell Saltalamacchia I should be able to spell Buchholz.

The opposition isn't the money. The price difference between Buchholz and his replacement (in the case of this discussion, Andrew Cashner) is insignificant. But, collectively we should all know what Clay Buchholz is: a guy that has flashes of brilliance but is otherwise an incredibly frustrating pitcher. I'm sick of it, and his inconsistency further reduces his value in my mind. Sure, you can look at last season specifically and say that Clay was better than Cashner. But if you look at Cashner from 2013-2015 he was generally consistent. To boil things down to a single number (Fangraphs WAR) he was 2.7, 2.3 and 2.3 during that time. With Clay from 2013-2015 you get the best three year stretch in is career and there's still consistent red flags as well (2.8, 1.6, 3.2). I know WAR isn't the end/all be all. Personally, I'm not a fan of it because of how it values defense, but it simplifies this discussion.

If we're going to have a #6 starter that's going to be paid in the $5-15 million range, I'd rather it be someone other than Clay. If that means acquiring someone else for the top of the rotation and bumping down Wright, E.Rod or Pomeranz, so be it. I look at Cashner (aside from last year) as having more consistency than Clay and I value that. I'm not expecting him to compete for a Cy Young, but I'm also not expecting him to be as volatile as I find Clay to be.

With all that said, Clay is on the team and Cashner isn't, so I'll stop my "one note" posting on the 6th guy in the rotation discussion.

As for Cleveland trading Miller, he was a luxury item for them this year, but one that I think is becoming the new normal in MLB bullpens. It's conceivable that they can recoup the package they traded to get him should they so wish. They don't have to trade him, but I certainly wouldn't rule it out.

Dombrowski has said that he wants an 8th inning guy. Unless he's talking about that guy being Kimbrel I don't think that's enough. I'd like to see both Greg Holland and one of Jansen/Chapman added to this bullpen. I would much rather have that approach than getting Encarnacion.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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Given how many teams are in the market for the top-tier FA closers - Chapman, Jansen, or even Melancon - including the Dodgers, Yankees, Nats, Marlins, among others, I just don't see that the Sox are going to sign one of those guys to team with Kimbral. Hence the interest in Holland. But I think they're probably looking to get at least one other guy to deepen the pen, whether its resigning Ziegler, or signing another set-up guy (or guy with set-up potential) - Keith Law mentioned Daniel Hudson and Luke Hochevar as possibilities here. Or there are trade options like Wade Davis/Kelvin Herrerra from KC, Colome from TB, Andrew Miller (though I suspect the acquisition cost would be prohibitive) or David Robertson from the White Sox (or Nate Jones).

But I agree that strengthening the bullpen is the first priority. I certainly don't see them spending $90-120m for 4-5 yrs of EE. Beltran seems like the first choice for a bat, which makes sense given the likely cost and length of commitment. Not sure where they turn if they lose out on him - Moss? Or explore the trade market - Frazier? And while I think there's always the possibility (20% chance?) that DD will pull off a "blockbuster" deal for a big name (Sale, Verlander, or my favorite, Goldschmidt), I hope that if he does it doesn't include more than two of the potential high-ceiling assets that always get mentioned: Bradley, Benintendi, ERod, Moncado, Devers, or Kopech. More than two of those in any one deal would be an overpay, IMO, although there are other valuable pieces that could be added, depending on who's coming back (for example, Goldschmidt > Sale > Verlander, in terms of what shoudl be the acquisition cost, not that any of these are likely to happen, in part because the sellers are likely to set the price higher than we should be willing to meet).

A post at Over the Monster discussed, and rejected, the possibility of a deal for Miggy. http://www.overthemonster.com/2016/11/21/13697516/miguel-cabrera-trade-red-sox-tigers . I agree with that assessment, given the back end of his deal, unless they are practically giving him away, which I doubt they would.
 

ehaz

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If Verlander is really available, I'd definitely kick the tires. The contract is expensive, but it only runs through 2019 with a vesting option for 2020 and he's coming off a Cy Young caliber year. Three years of Verlander at $28 per isn't an albatross but the Tigers wouldn't be in position to demand a ton in return if they're actually interested in shedding salary. Starting pitching isn't a priority but being able to add an ace without having to give up Moncada/Benintendi is a move you have to consider if a deal can be built around either Swihart or Devers. Also more Kate Upton.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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If Verlander is really available, I'd definitely kick the tires. The contract is expensive, but it only runs through 2019 with a vesting option for 2020 and he's coming off a Cy Young caliber year. Three years of Verlander at $28 per isn't an albatross but the Tigers wouldn't be in position to demand a ton in return if they're actually interested in shedding salary. Starting pitching isn't a priority but being able to add an ace without having to give up Moncada/Benintendi is a move you have to consider if a deal can be built around either Swihart or Devers. Also more Kate Upton.
The biggest reason to pick up Clay's option is that it keeps his wife around. If they trade for Verlander they can deal Clay and it would still be a net positive around the ballpark.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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I suspect that if the Tigers are dealing Verlander they will want pitching back in return - most likely ERod from the Sox - since they apparently do not to a full reload but more of a change on the fly while remaining competitive. In which case Clay would still be kept as the 5/6 starter.

So if Erod + ? = Verlander, what's the other piece(s)? Would Erod + Devers be enough? Or ERod + Bradley, since Tigers may need a CF since they traded Maybin? If Bradley's in the deal, throw in another piece and get JD Martinez (or Victor)? I don't expect this to happen, but interesting to contemplate the possibilities.

As I said earlier, I don't think SP is the top priority (bullpen is), but if the opportunity presents itself then DD doesn't seem like the type to shy away if the cost is not outrageous.
 

NoXInNixon

Member
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Mar 24, 2008
5,344
If the Sox trade Erod for Verlander, not only should the Sox not include any other players, but the Tigers should eat salary.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
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Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
If the Sox trade Erod for Verlander, not only should the Sox not include any other players, but the Tigers should eat salary.
You aren't getting Verlander for Eduardo straight up, never mind Verlander plus cash. That's crazy talk.

I don't think I'd be willing to pay the price but a fair deal would probably be more like Eduardo or Pomeranz plus Devers.

People need to get over this idea that players with market value contacts have little value on the trade market.
 
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Red(s)HawksFan

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Jan 23, 2009
21,001
Maine
People need to get over this idea that players with market value contacts have little value on the trade market.
That, and the notion that rumors of a player being "available" automatically means that the team is actively and eagerly shopping the player for salary relief rather than simply listening to offers and *maybe* would consider making a deal for the right return.

I think the notion that the Red Sox could acquire Verlander (or Sale or Quintana or insert-name-of-top-flight-pitcher) this winter and it not costing them Moncada or Benintendi or someone else of real value on the big league roster is fanciful wishcasting. It's a seller's market and most of the pitchers being brought up aren't on teams desperate to be rid of them.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Jul 15, 2005
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I think the notion that the Red Sox could acquire Verlander (or Sale or Quintana or insert-name-of-top-flight-pitcher) this winter and it not costing them Moncada or Benintendi or someone else of real value on the big league roster is fanciful wishcasting. It's a seller's market and most of the pitchers being brought up aren't on teams desperate to be rid of them.
I agree with this, but the Sox aren't eager to get rid of E-Rod, either, right? Granted, he's not in Verlander's class (right now), but he still has a fair amount of cheap, young, controllable upside. What would trading Rodriguez alone be expected to bring back in this sellers' market for SPs?

I'm not so sure that Rodriguez for Verlander and his $28m/yr salary straight up isn't a fair deal. Verlander's not as young and not nearly as cherap as guys like Sale or Quintana. Their values are significantly different. For Kate's hubbie, maybe you add in a utility piece (Hernandez or Holt) or a lesser, non-top 5 prospect to EdRo. You sure as hell don't have to add in Moncada or Bradley, etc.
 
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moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
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Sep 20, 2005
8,310
What's the explanation for how Verlander got his K rate back up to 10 this year after a steady decline culminating in 7.6 last year? Seems like that wouldn't be common.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Dec 4, 2005
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What's the explanation for how Verlander got his K rate back up to 10 this year after a steady decline culminating in 7.6 last year? Seems like that wouldn't be common.
6.0
8.2
7.3
10.1
8.8
9.0
9.0
8.9
6.9
7.6
10.0

Where are you seeing a steady decline? I'm seeing two outliers the last two years - after establishing himself in his early years - that likely were health related.

Edit: which is to totally ignore that strikeouts in baseball are on the upswing and have been yearly for a while now.
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
8,310
6.0
8.2
7.3
10.1
8.8
9.0
9.0
8.9
6.9
7.6
10.0

Where are you seeing a steady decline? I'm seeing two outliers the last two years - after establishing himself in his early years - that likely were health related.
But those past two years fit in with a normal aging pattern, now all of a sudden age 33 looks like age 26.
 

MikeM

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People need to get over this idea that players with market value contacts have little value on the trade market.
While I don't disagree, in all fairness that general guideline can be subject to a few different surrounding factors as well. Tier of player quality being most important imo, but also contract length, time of year, ect.

Sometimes there also tends to be a fairly big gap between the potential interest in a guy on just cash terms, and the willingness to pay that out while also surrendering non-draft pick asset value in the process. Again, iffy flyer types like a Clay Buchholz who might otherwise get more money on the open market are a good example of this. The proposed "excess value" doesn't really translate over well there since it is usually always a good bet that teams are going to be less aggressive with their acquisition approach once you add more then just cash into the risk equation.

But yeah, Verlander is a huge name front line ace on relatively short money. No doubt he's going to cost a ton, especially in this current market setting. Erod + Devers doesn't get it done though imo. Detroit would want, and get, more immediate or close type MLB upside then just downgrading their rotation with Erod.
 

chrisfont9

Member
SoSH Member
6.0
8.2
7.3
10.1
8.8
9.0
9.0
8.9
6.9
7.6
10.0

Where are you seeing a steady decline? I'm seeing two outliers the last two years - after establishing himself in his early years - that likely were health related.

Edit: which is to totally ignore that strikeouts in baseball are on the upswing and have been yearly for a while now.
2014: had core surgery in January and shoulder soreness in August.
2015: Inactive til June with triceps strain.

So I wouldn't be too quick to talk of aging, or to hint at certain things that reverse aging when looking at 2016. Obviously only he knows what's happening with his body, but there seems to be a decent publicly available explanation that says he just wasn't 100% physically those previous two years.
 

MikeM

Member
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May 27, 2010
3,136
Florida
As I said earlier, I don't think SP is the top priority (bullpen is), but if the opportunity presents itself then DD doesn't seem like the type to shy away if the cost is not outrageous.
The problem with this continuing line of thought being that such a cost in most cases is all but assured to be outrageous. At least in a sense that it was fairly predictable even before he made that decision to pick up Buchholz's option.

Other than the rather select and off chance scenario where DD is secretly in love with a young guy like Michael Wacha, who STL is then deciding to dump at a fairly attractive (to him) rate, I really can't see a starter acquisition being in the mix atm. He certainly isn't going to be shopping for the various Wade Miley types, which will no doubt continue to be brought up as possibilities here the more the reality concept of a 2016 replay sinks in with people.
 

foulkehampshire

hillbilly suburbanite
SoSH Member
Feb 25, 2007
5,101
Wesport, MA
Wary of Gray.

Middling K-Rate, stats scream regression. Pitching advantage in a friendly park & division. I like his bulldog demeanor and ground-ball heavy arsenal however he's a pretty small guy and I don't think he really fools anybody when he can't get his breaking stuff over. Despite good velocity, his fastball hardly strikes anybody out.

FA: 10% (2016)
FT: 4% (2016)

I mean, whats really separating him from a guy like Wade Miley? With neutral luck/park factors they're eerily similar. Maybe Grey is the type of guy like Glavine who consistently over-performs his baseline FIP/xFIP but I wouldn't want to bet on it.