I would guess that Oakland is shopping Gray because this is his last pre-arb season, and Oakland has a limited budget. Gray will likely get expensive for them, but not so expensive that the market is limited; lots of teams can afford two+ years of control, and currently, Gray will likely be great value for those two+ years. Furthermore, the FA pitching market in 2016 may be one of the worst in years. If Oakland were to trade Gray in a year or two, regardless of performance, the market may be more limited due to wider availability of starting pitching and reduced flexibility for carrying Gray. To me, this is the definition of selling high.
I would be wary of trading for Gray, but I agree with Snod that Gray is better than he looked last season (and has a strong enough track record and time to bounce back). It is hard to tell exactly why Gray was so poor last year. Looking at either numerical/rate statistics (e.g. HR/FB, opposing ISO, K%,BB%) or hit/fx (e.g. %hard) shows that opposing hitters were swinging less (~47% in 2015 to ~44% in 2016), and making harder (25% hard in 2015 vs. 33% hard in 2016) and more frequent (79% in 2015 to ~82% in 2016) contact.
On the other hand, the rest of Gray's peripherals look ok. His velocity is down negligibly, and certainly not down enough to dissociate a real effect from a fluke. His release point has always been variable, but his movement on pitches is pretty much the same.
To me, this suggests that a change in strategy may have occurred, and perhaps this started at the end of 2015. Take a look at this graph:
The plot shows an uptick in the use of the changeup last season (around august 2015), which ebbs by June 2016. Now there could be classification errors here, however, the worst months of 2015 for Sonny Gray were August and September, and these problems progressed until June, when the usage pattern (according to Brooks Baseball) reverted to early/mid 2015. Gray pitched to his career averages in June/July before straining his forearm.
While this may seem reassuring, month-month rate statistics may be fluky. Furthermore, he hasn't pitched much in the majors since July, so it is unclear whether the problems seen in late 2015 and early 2016 crop up again.
The reason I would be wary of trading for Gray is because trading for a potential top starter with question marks doesn't make sense unless the trade is a steal. We currently have two pitchers who, arguably, were top 30 in MLB (Porcello and Price). Drew Pomeranz has a ~3.7ish FIP over the last 250 IP, and despite the problems many pitchers have had recently in adjusting to Boston, should probably be given another chance. Wright/Edro round off the 4th/5th spots, and Edro could still break out. Buchholz provides a high-variance insurance starter. This combination last year drove our league 11th best 4.16 FIP. Meanwhile, we just lost one of the best hitters in the MLB at DH that hit 65 percent better than the league in 2016, and identified a couple of holes in our bullpen. Furthermore, our 2B isn't getting any younger, and our 1B/3B situation isn't entirely clear yet.
Unless Gray is heavily discounted, I'd be surprised if the Red Sox negotiate with Beane heavily for Gray. Making such a play would not make sense, unless it was either some ridiculous steal (e.g. Pomeranz or Edro for Gray) or if the Red Sox management was directionless. Any other play for Gray would have me worried.
I would be wary of trading for Gray, but I agree with Snod that Gray is better than he looked last season (and has a strong enough track record and time to bounce back). It is hard to tell exactly why Gray was so poor last year. Looking at either numerical/rate statistics (e.g. HR/FB, opposing ISO, K%,BB%) or hit/fx (e.g. %hard) shows that opposing hitters were swinging less (~47% in 2015 to ~44% in 2016), and making harder (25% hard in 2015 vs. 33% hard in 2016) and more frequent (79% in 2015 to ~82% in 2016) contact.
On the other hand, the rest of Gray's peripherals look ok. His velocity is down negligibly, and certainly not down enough to dissociate a real effect from a fluke. His release point has always been variable, but his movement on pitches is pretty much the same.
To me, this suggests that a change in strategy may have occurred, and perhaps this started at the end of 2015. Take a look at this graph:
The plot shows an uptick in the use of the changeup last season (around august 2015), which ebbs by June 2016. Now there could be classification errors here, however, the worst months of 2015 for Sonny Gray were August and September, and these problems progressed until June, when the usage pattern (according to Brooks Baseball) reverted to early/mid 2015. Gray pitched to his career averages in June/July before straining his forearm.
While this may seem reassuring, month-month rate statistics may be fluky. Furthermore, he hasn't pitched much in the majors since July, so it is unclear whether the problems seen in late 2015 and early 2016 crop up again.
The reason I would be wary of trading for Gray is because trading for a potential top starter with question marks doesn't make sense unless the trade is a steal. We currently have two pitchers who, arguably, were top 30 in MLB (Porcello and Price). Drew Pomeranz has a ~3.7ish FIP over the last 250 IP, and despite the problems many pitchers have had recently in adjusting to Boston, should probably be given another chance. Wright/Edro round off the 4th/5th spots, and Edro could still break out. Buchholz provides a high-variance insurance starter. This combination last year drove our league 11th best 4.16 FIP. Meanwhile, we just lost one of the best hitters in the MLB at DH that hit 65 percent better than the league in 2016, and identified a couple of holes in our bullpen. Furthermore, our 2B isn't getting any younger, and our 1B/3B situation isn't entirely clear yet.
Unless Gray is heavily discounted, I'd be surprised if the Red Sox negotiate with Beane heavily for Gray. Making such a play would not make sense, unless it was either some ridiculous steal (e.g. Pomeranz or Edro for Gray) or if the Red Sox management was directionless. Any other play for Gray would have me worried.
