The Newest Vaughn
- Thread starter BigSoxFan
- Start date
Honestly I've always thought the hitting would trend back positive - based not just on ml numbers but previous ML number with the Braves a few years ago.
My concern is for the glove after he couldn't beat out Arcia at SS the year before last
For me, the few times I've seen him, he's passed the eye test as "decent" at second base.
In yesterday's game there was a hard hit ball to second that I thought should have been a doubleplay ball - but id didn't get turned - wasn't sure that was on Hamilton or Grissom
There was a gb that he just couldn't get to. But there were also some good examples of glove work at second.
I think we're a little short of sample size to judge the stats of his second base play. But watching him play, I'm not afraid when the ball gets hit to him - which is a good metric (for me) to go on.
My concern is for the glove after he couldn't beat out Arcia at SS the year before last
For me, the few times I've seen him, he's passed the eye test as "decent" at second base.
In yesterday's game there was a hard hit ball to second that I thought should have been a doubleplay ball - but id didn't get turned - wasn't sure that was on Hamilton or Grissom
There was a gb that he just couldn't get to. But there were also some good examples of glove work at second.
I think we're a little short of sample size to judge the stats of his second base play. But watching him play, I'm not afraid when the ball gets hit to him - which is a good metric (for me) to go on.
His defense seems solid enough with room to improve. His SS issues with the Braves appeared to be mostly in his head, as opposed to just not having the range or the arm or something like that.
Based on the little bits and pieces I've seen, I agree. His hands seem pretty good, and he seems to have enough range and arm.
I wasn't a big fan when he was acquired - I thought the faith in him far exceeded his actual proven capabilities - but I'm coming around. As is Grissom's bat!
I'm a little concerned that his actions are not "quick-twitch" enough. He got to a GB in the 2B hole but couldn't get his body torqued quickly enough to get the runner. Pedey is the benchmark here but Pedey definitely would have made the play on time. I've also seen slow throws that still beat the runner but I'd prefer throws with pace all the time (former First Sacker here who hated lollipop throws). And, regarding the potential DP Sox Pride mentioned above, Lumer was saying on the telecast it should have been turned but for a slow twist and turn from Grissom. Solid glove, needs to improve turn quickness/body pivot and throw velocity.
Regarding the groundball in the hole last night, while he wasn't Pedey-quick on the transition, Smith did him no favors with the way he received the throw. Smith took the throw with his right foot on the bag and didn't really stretch at all. It more resembled a player taking a throw to put a tag on an incoming runner rather than a first baseman taking a throw for a force play. He let the throw get deep into his body rather than stretching out toward Grissom to shorten the time it took for the ball to hit his glove. Maybe the runner beats it anyway but it felt like a poor effort.
edit to add...
Found a video to make a screengrab. Tell me that a traditional 1B stretch with the left foot on the bag doesn't make this play far closer.
That's awful - Smith looks like he ran in from another position to cover. Can he really be a 1B by profession?
Am I the only person who's really annoyed that the line on the graph showing the "MLB Average" is orange, but the legend shows it as red?
Grissom is picking up a few singles and walks now. Still only 1 extra base hit on the season though.
What really concerns me is the apparent lack of power. He has not homered in his last 215 MLB PA's going back to September/22.
As for his BABIP, it's been brutal this year, but in 2023 it was .344, and that sill only yielded an OPS of .659.
Somebody show that I'm wrong here, please...
What really concerns me is the apparent lack of power. He has not homered in his last 215 MLB PA's going back to September/22.
As for his BABIP, it's been brutal this year, but in 2023 it was .344, and that sill only yielded an OPS of .659.
Somebody show that I'm wrong here, please...
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I'd agree that his lack of hitting is disappointing, bordering on troubling, but the fact that you're equating power with homers, limiting this to MLB PAs, and cherry picking a cut-off point really tells us all we need to know, doesn't it?
In other words, this is argument masquerading as analysis. If you wanted to know if he's physically capable of hitting a baseball out of the park, or his propensity for doubles. . .there's data you could access.
Grissom is not a guy who is going to scorch the ball like Devers or Wilyer. He doesn't have the bat speed. He's much more like Bogaerts in his profile. Good launch angle, good plate coverage, not a lot of whiffs and solid if unremarkable patience.
He's only hitting the ball hard 31% of the time, per Statcast (after 34% the two previous years). From 2015-2017, Bogaerts hit the ball hard only 33, 33, and 31% of the time, but was nonetheless an above average hitter. He then exploded the next year to 41% and hung around there for the next half a dozen years before cratering back to 34% last year, but even so, he still posted a wrc+ of 120 in San Diego.
Which is just to say that a guy like Grissom, who has excellent launch angles but poor HH%s can still make his bones on that. But he hasn't so far. The BABIP is still under .200.
For what it's worth, I count 10 balls hit over 100 mph for Grissom. 3 of those have gone for hits. One double and two singles. He's hit 20 balls between 90 and 100 mphs. Four of those for hits. And of the eight that were hit between 95 mph and 100mph, just one has gone for a hit (the single last night). Many of those are groundballs, which obviously don't go for hits as often as line drives, but he has seen a ton of line drives go for outs so far.
Point is, it's still early. He's been scuffling for sure, but he's also had bad luck in addition to that scuffling. If he were hitting his xBA of .242, we'd just say we were waiting for him to get hot. Doesn't mean you can't worry -- there's reasons to worry -- but there's plenty of reasons, given his profile, to be optimistic as well.
He's only hitting the ball hard 31% of the time, per Statcast (after 34% the two previous years). From 2015-2017, Bogaerts hit the ball hard only 33, 33, and 31% of the time, but was nonetheless an above average hitter. He then exploded the next year to 41% and hung around there for the next half a dozen years before cratering back to 34% last year, but even so, he still posted a wrc+ of 120 in San Diego.
Which is just to say that a guy like Grissom, who has excellent launch angles but poor HH%s can still make his bones on that. But he hasn't so far. The BABIP is still under .200.
For what it's worth, I count 10 balls hit over 100 mph for Grissom. 3 of those have gone for hits. One double and two singles. He's hit 20 balls between 90 and 100 mphs. Four of those for hits. And of the eight that were hit between 95 mph and 100mph, just one has gone for a hit (the single last night). Many of those are groundballs, which obviously don't go for hits as often as line drives, but he has seen a ton of line drives go for outs so far.
Point is, it's still early. He's been scuffling for sure, but he's also had bad luck in addition to that scuffling. If he were hitting his xBA of .242, we'd just say we were waiting for him to get hot. Doesn't mean you can't worry -- there's reasons to worry -- but there's plenty of reasons, given his profile, to be optimistic as well.
No home runs in his last 215 MLB PA's is not really cherry-picking. I should have added, 6 EBH's in those 215 PA's.
It just kind of looks like MLB pitchers figured him out after that hot start in 2022.
And there seems to be an ever-widening gulf between the quality of MLB and minor league pitching, so why not focus on the MLB numbers.
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I realize his minor league numbers have been great, he wouldn't be here if they weren't. But the MLB-MiLB pitching gulf seems to be getting more difficult to measure.
Or... he could just be adjusting to the big leagues and going through a stretch where he's not hitting the ball very hard and he's not having much luck?
It's breathtaking how quickly people give up on young players around here. He had yet another basehit robbed by a diving play last night, for what it's worth.
We've got people in this thread diving into his numbers, which you are repeatedly ignoring, comparing them to other players, and you keep coming in here with these generalizations that are backed up by at best one statistic about extra base hits "going back to 2022," which is a terribly misleading time frame because he only was in the big leagues in 2023 for, like, 80 plate appearances. And then you're making sweeping generalizations about how "MLB pitchers figured him out." Which, like, I don't even know what you mean by that.
Look, you can go with your gut if you want, but do the bare minimum and at least spend some time interrogating what your gut is saying. Look at the sample sizes, look at his batting profile.
Because it's a tiny fucking sample size, dude! 160 plate appearances over two years isn't enough time to judge anybody. He may very well not be a major league player. That may be the case. But anybody can get ratfucked by BABIP and a cold stretch in 150 plate appearances.
I don't disagree that adjusting to the big leagues is really, really hard. Xander put up a 81 wrc+ in his first full season. But give the guy a chance before you start declaring there's something that's got you really worried.
Is this an argument against Grissom, though? It seems more like an argument against the idea of building through the farm. What about this “growing gulf between MLB and MiLB” here wouldn’t apply to any minor league hitter?
I don’t think it’s that straightforward, but If that’s your view, by all means make the case. I’d be interested to read it.
Or are you saying that there is something about Grissom himself that makes this more likely to apply to him, than, say Wilyer Abreu, who has made the jump with nary a hiccup?
Minor league players can struggle and later succeed; they also can just… not make the adjustment, or take longer to do so than their opportunities permit. Jarren Duran was hot garbage on both sides of the ball for a minute after he came up (-0.7 WAR in 112 PA is baaaaad), and now he’s probably the best position player on the team. Bobby Dalbec scalded the ball in his first go round, and he’s likely to be DFA’d this winter. It wasn’t a straight path for either guy.
I would say that one (hypothetical) way of distinguishing the Durans from the Dalbecs (and Kelenics and Adells…) is contact. The pitching is so insane now, as you note, that there’s less tolerance around hit tool, and that makes the transition to the majors really rocky for guys who don’t make reliable contact. But that is why I am *bullish* on Grissom. Am I wrong to look at it that way?
Nothing about Grissom’s baseball savant profile looks great. Obvious caveat is that the sample sizes are super small.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/vaughn-grissom-687093?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
He’d above average at making contact, but so far, in limited big league time, it hasn’t been good contact. Well below average on EV, hard hit %, way above on ground ball %.
Of course, it’s a tiny sample scattered over three seasons with extenuating circumstances for each of the last two. Would be interesting to know what the scouts are saying.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/vaughn-grissom-687093?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
He’d above average at making contact, but so far, in limited big league time, it hasn’t been good contact. Well below average on EV, hard hit %, way above on ground ball %.
Of course, it’s a tiny sample scattered over three seasons with extenuating circumstances for each of the last two. Would be interesting to know what the scouts are saying.
The one thing that is great is the launch angle. Like Bogaerts he's very good at turning flares and burners into hits. Or at least he is when he's hot.
I think more of his flares have gone for hits than his line drives, to be honest. Don't have time to count it out. But that just goes to show what a small sample size can result in.
Try selecting gamelogs and then the statcast data. It lets you sort in some interesting ways. He's been (SSS) surprisingly good at going to the opposite field in all his seasons. For me that's pretty significant. He pulled in his first season with a lot of success, but not since then. He hasn't exactly gotten pull-happy this year, but the results on the pulled balls aren't there because he's grounding out. That's an approach/swing issue, not a skill/ability issue. Like Yoshida (and unlike Dalbec), he's not getting fooled on the pitches and striking out - he's hitting a variety of them into what should be his primary power area. Often with power. He's just putting most of them in the dirt.
It should be fixable with an adjustment/coaching. In fact, when you look at his total number by date, he's launch angle has recently trended up somewhat. I wouldn't draw any conclusions from it, but for over a week before that it seems like 15 balls in play (excepting one) were at an LA of 14 or below. So I think that suggests he's not doing exactly the same thing up there.
I feel like it should be pointed out (again) that he reportedly lost 10+ pounds due to the flu-ish illness he suffered right before he was activated from the IL. It could be that he doesn't have the power behind his swing that he's used to and maybe that affects the timing/angle that would turn groundballs into line drives. Presumably he can recover that strength with time, and perhaps he's already starting to gain.
This sucks. And i feel terrible for him
View: https://twitter.com/gfstarr1/status/1797044202918015399?s=46
Maybe it's a blessing in disguise. He puts on some good weight, regains the strength he lost from the flu, and comes back strong. Meanwhile, step on up Enmanuel!
View: https://twitter.com/tommycassell44/status/1799190782051754023
Bought the WooSox a Golden Tee arcade game for the clubhouse
Bought the WooSox a Golden Tee arcade game for the clubhouse
Went hunting for an update on this guy. Honestly, I forgot he existed. From CBS Sports yesterday, I read this as transitioning from rehabbing to pre-habbing:
Red Sox's Vaughn Grissom: Building strength in hamstrings
Rotowire 23 HRS AGO
Grissom is trying to regain strength in both hamstrings before the team maps out a plan for his return, MLB.com reports.
Grissom has been running the bases and moving better, per manager Alex Cora, but a rehab assignment is not imminent. He had been expected to be Boston's primary second baseman, but Grissom may not be guaranteed that role when he's ready. The Red Sox have been getting by with lefty hitters David Hamilton and Enmanuel Valdez for now.
Red Sox's Vaughn Grissom: Building strength in hamstrings
Rotowire 23 HRS AGO
Grissom is trying to regain strength in both hamstrings before the team maps out a plan for his return, MLB.com reports.
Grissom has been running the bases and moving better, per manager Alex Cora, but a rehab assignment is not imminent. He had been expected to be Boston's primary second baseman, but Grissom may not be guaranteed that role when he's ready. The Red Sox have been getting by with lefty hitters David Hamilton and Enmanuel Valdez for now.
I'm not ready to say "lost season". But we are getting there. Feels like best case scenario at this point is about August 10?
Possibly sooner? Cora mentioned the possibility of Grissom starting a minor league rehab assignment at the end of the week.
But I don't know. Latest update is from the Red Sox website.
I already forgot the name of the guy that the Sox picked up last offseason from the Royals that just sort of stayed injured the entire season.....
Adalberto Mondesí. But it's actually a completely different situation in that Mondesí was acquired while rehabbing from a much more severe injury, and only had one year of control.
Adalberto Mondesi. He appears to basically be out of baseball for the time being. But that was some really weird ACL knee injury stuff. He just never recovered right.
Grissom, it sounds like, had some hamstring issues, maybe didn't take the rest he should have and continued to try to ramp up despite having been injured over the offseason, and then had to shut down, came back to soon again, and is just now hopefully really, really, getting the rest he needs.
Emphasis on hopefully. My concern is that. given the trend of reinjuring himself, is that he hasn't been honest about pain/discomfort (because he wants to join the team or whatever the reason may be) and that the hamstring will again NOT be healed when he gets back, and that he has to shut down for the rest of the season.
Sure. Just thinking how generally snakebitten they've been on "starting" 2B the past two years. At least this season the backup plan has generally been working- I know Valdez general numbers haven't been impressive but since he was back (and before his recent temporary demotion) they've been good enough to make up for his poor defense and I'd grade him largely as a plus net player taken altogether. Past seasons it seemed like backups were just garbage. The depth this year has been impressive.
More like six. Ever since Pedroia retired, it's been a revolving door of injuries and underperformance.
It wouldn't surprise me if Grissom sort of internalized a "holy shit they traded me for Chris Sale I better be ready" feeling in the offseason that might have led him to ignore some of the offseason stuff that Cora alluded to. He wouldn't be the first. Some guys in those situations press when healthy, some guys try to play through injury. Especially rookies.
The whole situation looks further complicated with Yorke playing very well in Worcester, which is a really nice development.
The 2026 depth chart at 2B currently looks something like Story, Grissom, Yorke, Hamilton, Valdez, Meidroth, and Campbell, with Romy potentially in the mix as a capable short-side platoon for Hamilton/Valdez/Meidroth.
The 2026 depth chart at 2B currently looks something like Story, Grissom, Yorke, Hamilton, Valdez, Meidroth, and Campbell, with Romy potentially in the mix as a capable short-side platoon for Hamilton/Valdez/Meidroth.
I posted this in another thread but I think we'll see some clearing up of everything soon. My predictions:
Story- starting SS for '25**
Grissom- starting 2B for '25**
Yorke- traded away at this deadline
Hamilton- backup SS and 2B '25
Valdez- traded away in the offseason
Meidroth- back at AAA. Good depth
Campbell- Incredibly good depth, but his defense from what I've read looks questionable. Likely a corner OF.
**Whoever gets injured first will find Mayer taking over at SS and Story moved to 2B or Grissom staying there.
It's really time to clear up some space. The Sox still have depth further down with (despite some struggles) Zanatello, Romero and Cespedes. I think Bloom is taking an unfair amount of criticism but one of his weaknesses was overvaluing prospects and holding them too long (Dalbec could've/should've been dealt after '21), and I don't think Breslow will make the same mistake there.
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He doesn't have the arm for 3B and he's never played 1B. Why do you think he could be a reliable backup at either spot?
I agree in principle - we will see some guys moved to make room for everyone and use that trade to shore up other areas on the team.
If they can live with his arm at SS they can live with it at 3B, no?
Super-sub is definitely the role I see for Hamilton. Would love for him to get some OF reps next spring.
That stuck out to me, too. Regardless, I think Hamilton is best as an add-on to a trade. I'm still not sold on him as getting on base enough to take advantage of his speed. He's a nice shiny object on a team in transition, but for the longer haul, I dont see it.
But Kyle Schwarber is just a shitty fielder altogether. A guy like Hamilton, who is at least adequate at SS and 2B, should be able to handle 1B just fine with a little practice. It might be a poor use of his skills if he were there in anything other than an emergency, but he could do it.
Hamilton at 5 '10" is less than ideal at 1B but I suppose in an emergency he can catch a ball thrown to him.
I agree 100%, I like Hamilton but he just doesn't really fit into the long term roster picture.
With how he's been performing in AA, I'd be surprised if we don't see Mayer as a September call up at the minimum. He's now the #7 prospect in all of baseball per MLB pipeline and his defense alone at short is extremely valuable.
Long term Story is going to shift to 2nd and even if he never gets healthy again we have Grissom and Yorke to replace him, who are better fits based solely on the fact that they're righties and our lineup is already way too lefty dominant. Mayer/Teel/Anthony are all lefties and our current major league core (Devers/Duran/Casas) are all lefties too.
That means that if our big 3 in AA all pan out we basically have to have righties at 2nd/the 3rd OF spot/DH. That unfortunately means Hamilton/Abreu may be the odd men out, but at least they're great trade pieces that could be used to acquire a starter or a power hitting RH OF.
My ideal long term roster (late 2025/2026) would look like:
DH: Wong (Teel on days he doesn't catch)
C: Teel with Wong as backup catcher (Wong is a pretty bad defensive catcher and Teel is elite defensively so this seems like a no-brainer)
1B: Casas
2B: Story/Grissom (Yorke/Hamilton used in trade)
3B: Devers
SS: Mayer
LF: Anthony
CF: Rafaela (my dream is ditching Story, moving Rafaela to 2nd, and trading for Robert but that's obviously unlikely)
RF: Duran
Prom Night.
There have been 1Bmen in Boston lately that have made it look very difficult.