Seems like this is the kind of performance variance you would see in a serviceable, non-elite quarterback. Hard to pick a good route forward with Mac because playing the lottery hoping you hit on the next Mahomes is not the way to go. Even in that case, the Chiefs had a good veteran quarterback in place already. At the same time, it would put the Patriots in a bind if they overpay for what might end up being a caretaker role (with Mac or anyone else for that matter).
The Michael McCorkle "Mac" Jones Thread
- Thread starter SeoulSoxFan
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Fauria, who has been pretty neutral on Mac this year, praising him at times, and giving up on him at others, has been pushing back on the arm strength thing for a while.
His argument is that Mac's arm strength, while not great, is perfectly fine for the NFL.
What he sees is a guy relying on the touch pass a lot more for multiple reasons, the first being is that he is unsure at times what his receiver is going to do (more on that in a second) and second, but more importantly, because there is so little separation when the rush is about to get home, that he's forced to throw guys open a lot more. He can't fire the ball in because he can't step into a breaking pocket, and because the receivers aren't open yet. So he has to put touch on the ball and put it where the receiver is going to get to.
As for the first point, he talked about Brady a lot. Said if Brady didn't trust you, you weren't getting the ball. Talked a lot about N'Keal Harry specifically. He said a lot of receivers (including guys that came here like Galloway and Ocho Cinco) believe they are making the right read on a route and it's up to the QB to be on the same page. Fauria says it's the opposite. It's the receivers who have to see what the QB is seeing, no excuses. If Tom Brady saw something, you better damn well see it too, you have to be able to put yourself in the QB's head, not the other way around or a guy like Brady would just write you off.
Cherry picking like a mofo--absent the DAL and NO games, Mac's sitting at 69% completion rate, 1220 yards, 7 TDs, 3 INTs, with a rating of 92.5.
The problem is that the other 2 games count too, and he was 24/43, 0 TDs, 4 INTs and 260 yards TOTAL.
With the way this offense is currently constructed this is what happens--his highs are fine, and you can win with them, but they're not HIGH ENOUGH. And his lows (because of his limitations and the team around him) are too low.
I would argue that if the Pats had the 2017 Chiefs offense with Mac at QB instead of Alex Smith they’d probably be about as good.
@TFisNEXT kind of hits on this in his next post but Hurts just has way more physical gifts than Mac does. There's the scrambling ability and then Hurts puts more zip on the intermediate to long throws.
The template for Mac is the Jimmy G/Purdy types. Of course, those guys had otherworldly talent and scheme around them and that's incredibly hard to replicate....if the Patriots hit on everything they do with the offense over the next 2 off-seasons, it would be a rough approximation but that's really hard to bank on
You can put zip on intermediate and long throws when you're throwing to wide open guys like Brown/Smith/Goedert.
When you have Parker with no separation and you try to put zip on a throw, it's going to hit the defender between the numbers.
Hurts and Mac Jones arm strength are really not that much different, and they weren't coming out of Alabama.
Hurts has 9 touchdowns and 8 interceptions this season and a QB rating of 87.8. His biggest asset to the team right now is that Brotherly Shove that apparently only that team is capable of, but he's not exactly lighting the world on fire with his passing.
Let me add another caveat: Smith was in his 5th year in KC with Andy Reid at that point.
The point is that I think if you built up the team around Mac, they could achieve that type of success. But of course, there is a reason they drafted Mahomes - to try to get to the next level.
Which kind of proves the point that pretty much everything around Mac would need to be perfect to win a title. Which points to moving on and not giving him a 2nd contract.
I'll just point out that none of those receivers Fauria mentioned were/are any good. #85 got cut by a bad Dolphins team after his year in New England and never played another snap. Joey Galloway caught all of 12 passes post-Brady. Harry has been on the field for all of 2 snaps on offense this season, and not due to injury.
I agree that no QB can play a perfect game. Hell, if the Pats have to rely on Mac going 25-30 every game, they will still be in the running for a top 5 pick this season. No team would have that expectation of their starting QB every game. Supporting cast does matter.
The best case scenario is that the OL performs as well as it did against the Bills. Still wasn't perfect; team could barely run the ball most of the game. But it was no longer bottom of the league bad as it was almost every other game this season. And if the OL can hold up, we'll at least get a chance to see if Mac can at least be a short term solution at QB. Douglas is a playmaker, albeit one with physical limitations. Bourne is more than capable in his role as a possession receiver, one bad fumble aside. I assume the JuJu experiment is over, and Parker is clearly washed as well, so challenges will remain with the receiving corps. If and when the team is officially out of playoff contention, Bill should play Boutte and Thornton in place of Parker. I'd prefer he play Boutte sooner than that, but not holding my breath. But at least if the OL is solid there may be enough there to at least assess whether QB needs to be the team's first priority in 2024.
Agreed with all of that.
Not sure if the numbers are out yet, but seems to me putting Mac under center more, using more pre-snap motion is a big key to them being successful. If they can do that, and the line holds up, there is at least some hope of a functioning offense. I just despise the constant shotgun offense (been my issue with the way the Cowboys have used Dak in recent years too). I feel like it's so hard to get a running game going out of the gun, with no lead blockers, etc. and a lack of pre-snap motion really hurts the ability of the QB to get pre-snap reads on what the defense is doing. Felt like they used both a ton more yesterday than they have all season.
Mahomes' first start was the last game of the 2017 season . The Chiefs had already won the division by that point and would finish 10-6. That offense had Kelce, Hill, rookie Kareem Hunt and the O line was solid with Mitchell Schwartz and former first overall pick Eric Fisher. Andy Reid had been coaching there for years and turned Alex Smith from "historic bust" to "solid enough to win a division". Mahomes absolutely took them over the top and was the right move, but it's not like Mahomes was walking into a terrible situation and immediately turned trash into gold. In other words, I agree with you - if Mac had a better team around him, a good portion of people are probably wondering what the next piece is, rather than "why does Mac suck so bad?"
There have only been 20 350-yard, 4 TD games since Mac entered the league in 2021. Aaron Rodgers has only done it once in that span, and the Packers lost that game.
I'm old enough to remember week 1 this year when Mahomes went 21/39 for 226 yards, 2 touchdowns and he threw a pick 6 and they lost 21-20 to the Lions. Without Travis Kelce.
It's hard to play great in today's NFL without some real playmakers on offense.
This is well said.
I know we root for the Pats, so we frame everything in the lens of Super Bowls. But I don't think that's entirely fair. We know Mac is good enough to make the playoffs, because he's done it. Personally, I think that's his ceiling. I'm pretty skeptical that, even with a dramatic upgrade in OL and skill position talent around him, he's good enough to win a title. I'd never say never, because stranger things have happened (see: Nick freakin' Foles), but it seems highly unlikely to me.
Honestly, all I've been hoping for is that Mac played well enough for the Pats to be a 10-ish win team and let Bill surpass Shula in 2024. Then I figured Bill would retire, we wouldn't give Mac a big next contract, and we could rebuild with real Super Bowl aspirations.
Yesterday's game reminded me of a great Tom Brady game...in 2001. Specifically, this one: https://www.footballdb.com/games/boxscore/new-england-patriots-vs-indianapolis-colts-2001102106
Similarities: 3 passing TDs, ~80% completion rate, score (take away the Patten TD pass, and it's pretty much the same score), similar point in the season.
Differences: 1 yard more on average for TB, far fewer passes and lower total yards in the game, far worse start for '23 vs. '01 teams.
If anything, Mac was much more important in this game than TB was in his, but for TB, it was a coming-out party of sorts, after some very slow starts. Do I think Mac will become Brady? Absolutely not - I agree with other assessments re: arm strength and slower processing meaning Mac's ceiling is far lower. But it was a good game all around for the team. Let's hope for more like it.
Similarities: 3 passing TDs, ~80% completion rate, score (take away the Patten TD pass, and it's pretty much the same score), similar point in the season.
Differences: 1 yard more on average for TB, far fewer passes and lower total yards in the game, far worse start for '23 vs. '01 teams.
If anything, Mac was much more important in this game than TB was in his, but for TB, it was a coming-out party of sorts, after some very slow starts. Do I think Mac will become Brady? Absolutely not - I agree with other assessments re: arm strength and slower processing meaning Mac's ceiling is far lower. But it was a good game all around for the team. Let's hope for more like it.
Huh. Color me surprised about that.
Seems like the days of the high-flying, offense-centered NFL may be waning?
Average Points and Yards per game, per team
2017: 21.7 points, 334.1 yards
2018: 23.3 points, 352.2 yards
2019: 22.8 points, 347.9 yards
2020: 24.8 points, 359.0 yards
2021: 23.0 points, 343.6 yards
2022: 21.9 points, 340.1 yards
2023: 21.7 points, 331.5 yards
Defenses catching up to the offenses?
In 1983 teams averaged 21.8 points and 334.4 yards per game. A tick more than teams do today.
Yeah I've been noticing this trend too. It's not quite as impossible to slow down these offenses.
Defenses have caught up and it has a lot to do with defensive lines versus offensive lines. The best athletes and players are playing D line, not offensive line, because there is glory in that. We are seeing the results. QBs on a lot of teams are constantly under fire, not just Mac.
This guy! You’re all welcome for saving the season. Mac just needed someone to believe in him on the internet.
Left offensive tackles (protect the quarterback) are still up there with their defensive counterparts though, right?
On average, the better players are on the defensive side of the ball. But obviously there are a ton of left tackles that are great.
The Jets have 5 good to premium defensive ends and ZERO premium OTs. Becton could work out. Olines just getting abused this year around the league.
I think this partially has something to do with the new era of mobile running quarterbacks. As a result, we're seeing more running plays than we have in recent years, game times speed up, and we're seeing more sacks than any other time in recent memory. The average # of plays per drive is the 3rd highest of all time (only behind 2020 and 2021). As a result, we're seeing only 11.0 drives per game, the 23rd highest of all time.
NFL teams are averaging 34.1 pass attempts per game (12th highest all time, but the only season lower than that since 2011 was last season at 33.3).
They are averaging 22.2 completions per game, which is the 6th highest of all time and as a result, we're seeing in 2023 the 2nd highest completion % of all time at 65.1%.
However, that is translating to 220.4 ypg, which ranks 14th all time, and is the lowest total since 2009 (outside of last season, which was 15th). Yards per completion in 2023 is ranked 92nd in NFL history, out of 92 NFL seasons at 10.7.
The NY/A this season at 6.0 is 33rd highest in NFL history. The ANY/A is at 5.7, the 15th highest.
The sack % this year of 7.1 is the highest of any season since 1998.
There's a confluence of factors at play, but besides the speeds of these defensive lines, I think we're also seeing the results of mobile quarterbacks extending plays, sometimes to their teams detriment.
NFL teams are averaging 34.1 pass attempts per game (12th highest all time, but the only season lower than that since 2011 was last season at 33.3).
They are averaging 22.2 completions per game, which is the 6th highest of all time and as a result, we're seeing in 2023 the 2nd highest completion % of all time at 65.1%.
However, that is translating to 220.4 ypg, which ranks 14th all time, and is the lowest total since 2009 (outside of last season, which was 15th). Yards per completion in 2023 is ranked 92nd in NFL history, out of 92 NFL seasons at 10.7.
The NY/A this season at 6.0 is 33rd highest in NFL history. The ANY/A is at 5.7, the 15th highest.
The sack % this year of 7.1 is the highest of any season since 1998.
There's a confluence of factors at play, but besides the speeds of these defensive lines, I think we're also seeing the results of mobile quarterbacks extending plays, sometimes to their teams detriment.
More sacks would indicate the OLs are just not able to keep up with the DLs.
I think you missed the point about more mobile QBs... sometimes they just run, which means more chances to tackle them before or at the line of scrimmage, which counts as a sack.
There are only a handful of rushing QBs in the NFL. I think 6 QBs have over 200 yards rushing.
Mobile QBs are not necessarily rushing QBs. They just don't stay in the pocket as long, trying to extend plays.
Is that a new phenomenon? I don’t think it is but that’s only my inclination, I didn’t research it.
Don't think Aaron Rodgers and Pat Mahomes are "rushing QBs" per se, but they are considerably more mobile but I was more thinking about DeathoftheBambino's comments, which -feels- like a partial explanation of those stats.
Feels like there's been a greater rise in RPOs and rollouts plays that more mobile QBs run.
More mobile than who? Steve Young, John Elway, Cunningham, Mike Vick? Even a guy like Phil Rivers could move in the pocket. I just don’t know what we’re talking about. Doesn’t seem like a falsifiable theory unless I am misreading it. Favre could move. Kurt Warner not so much.
I mean, look at the list of the most sacked quarterbacks, non Joe-Burrow division.
The 2020 Bears with Mitch Trubisky and Nick Foles gave up a total of 36 sacks. In 2021, Justin Fields was sacked 36 times alone (58 as a team), in 2022, it went up to 55, and this year, he was at 24 on 162 attempts, while Tyson Bagent is at 2 in 43 pass attempts.
Last year, Fields took 55 sacks, which tied him for the lead with Russell Wilson, who has been taking a ton of sacks for most of his career. He's led the NFL twice, and had 3 other seasons with at least 45 sacks taken.
Guys like Russell Wilson, Zach Wilson, Fields, Daniel Jones, Lamar (and now guys like Sam Howell, Bryce Young, Desmond Ridder) are living in the bottom 5-10 in sack %.
Allen and Mahomes as far as mobile QB's go are really the outliers in these numbers.
Don't get me wrong, defensive lines are definitely getting faster too, but I think a lot of mobile quarterbacks, especially younger ones, are taking a ton of sacks instead of throwing the ball away (which is why Tom Brady is constantly at or near the top in sack % year in and year out), which keeps the clock moving and as a result, is also a cause for less points/yards.
Seems like all this proves is that crappy QBs who can't get rid of the ball because they are slow to process are getting sacked a lot. So if you suck, you get sacked a lot. This isn't about rushing but about tremendous DLs coupled with the NFL being stuck with a lot of QBs who just aren't very good because it is a brutally tough position to play against the strength and speed of today's NFL defenses.
This isn't some newfangled idea. Mobile quarterbacks have gotten sacked at higher rates than pocket quarterbacks for a long time.
Russell Wilson didn't suck when he was in his prime in Seattle and leading the league in sacks taken. The year DeShaun Watson led Houston to an 11-5 record, went to the Pro Bowl, he led the league with 62 sacks taken. The next two seasons, he took 44 and 49 sacks. In that 49 sack season, he led the NFL with over 4,800 yards and 33tds/7ints. That year he led the league in sacks taken, #2 was Dak and #3 was Deshaun.
Kyler Murray was the AP Offensive Rookie of the year in 2019, the same year he led the NFL in sacks taken with 48.
Brissett, Tyrod Taylor and Russell Wilson were all in the top 4 in 2017. Kaepernick was #2 in sack % in 2016, while Wilson was #2 in sacks taken and #5 in sack %.
Blake Bortles was a running, mobile QB, who threw for 4,400 yards, 35tds and 18ints in his 2nd year. He led the league in sacks taken that year, after leading the league in sacks taken the year before.
Alex Smith's biggest rushing year in his career was 2015, with almost 500 yards. It was also the year he was sacked the most at 45.
You don't see guys like Brady, either Manning, Brees, Luck, Ryan, Rodgers, Palmer, Rivers, etc. at the top of these lists, except for a year here or a year there where things clearly went wrong with their teams as whole.
I suppose one could say they're better quarterbacks, but given their lack of mobility, it's kind of striking how little they get sacked, vs. guys we think of as mobile.
The multiple posts of strawman sarcasm is what’s borderline irrational.
This is a really fucking weird thread.
I dunno if it's related but Mahomes is running far more this year than in the past. In his first five years as a starter he averaged 63 rushes and 331 yards per 17 games (season high of 66 rushes and 381 yards). This year he's on pace for 80 rushes and 520 yards.
2006 Brady says 6-1.
The whole speculation that a better team means more wins is a bit circular. The fair evaluation of Mac is how he responds in bad situations compared to other good QBs. The Hunter Henry play was probably the most encouraging thing we've seen from resent Mac. It mattered, he was pressured and contacted, yet he completed a quality enough throw. Lately we've seen MacAttack start to panic and do something stupid or disastrous in those situations. Miami's going to bring the pressure against him. He's going to have to make throws in the pocket regardless. I don't even care if they are completions, he has to throw rather than scramble fumble to nowhere. I'm not expecting his next 60 minutes to be a repeat of what he managed against Buffalo, but for me, that's my measure. Trust the OL even if they don't deserve it. Take the hit in the pocket.
Counter point, the 2006 Pats gave up 87 points through 7 games. They scored 167.
The 2023 Pats have given up 179 points through 7 games. They have scored 101.
The 2006 Pats won a game 19-17 in that run, another game 20-10, another game 24-17. The 2023 Pats have lost games by scores of 25-20, 24-17 and 21-17.
So Brady's "bad" games in the early part of that season, he had a fantastic defense which allowed them to win some games that this year's team would be losing.
Of course, Mac Jones is not Tom Brady (or Pat Mahomes). But at best, I'd have those guys 4-3 on this team. More likely, IMO, 3-4.
I mean if you want to adjust for defense we can clearly take away this year's win over the Jets as well, leaving Mac with a single win this season.
I'm trying to get away from better team makes better numbers arguments and focus on what Mac delivers in bad games.
I'm trying to get away from better team makes better numbers arguments and focus on what Mac delivers in bad games.
I dont really even know what this means.
Mac's "bad games" are fucking atrocious. His average games aren't even game manager level because hes prone to TOs. Let me put this in perspective - this was the best game we've EVER seen from Mac Jones.
They scored under 30 points.
In his BEST EVER GAME. And they needed 2 turnovers - one in AMAZING field position - to get there.
I'm fucking off the Mac train. Done. He can take his Trent Dilfer Lite routine - minus the moxy, plus the TOs - and take it to the bench for another team.
I know everyone on this board is super duper psyched for what Mac just did, but I expect better. He can't even pull the carpet out from under you guys, you're already touching the hardwood.
Fuck Mac Jones.
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I'm not sure I know what "focus on what Mac delivers in bad games" means. I say that with sincerity.
I wasn't adjusting for defense, but if you're going to do that, we should remove 3 of Brady's wins, no?
I mean, the Miami game the Pats won 20-10. This where their scoring "drives" started:
Miami 37 after a Miami fumble (field goal)
Pats 31 after the Pats blocked a field goal (field goal)
Miami 10 after a Samuel pick (touchdown)
Miami 24 after a Samuel pick (touchdown)
Their other 7 drives were 5 punts, end of half and end of game. This year's Pats have generated 5 turnovers total, and none in that Jets game.
In the Buffalo game that the Pats won 19-17, the game started with a strip sack of Brady for a touchdown. The Pats were down 17-7, crawled back to a 19-17 lead, and Brady threw an awful pick to the Bills, but the immortal JP Losman couldn't get it done, Richard Seymour sacked him on their last drive, and then clock killing Corey Dillon (with a bit of Maroney) ended the game.
In the Jets game, the Pats jumped out to a 24-0 lead with 9:00 minutes to go in the 3rd, and then when they cut it to 24-7, Brady threw a pick leading to a touchdown, 24-14, then Brady fumbled the next possession, leading to a 24-17 game.
The Jets were then driving down the field, after blocking a Ghost field goal that would have ended the game, and Pennington threw a pick to Bruschi at the Pats 21 to end the game.
If Tom Brady is getting the credit for these wins, so be it, but that 2006 Pats team was far better than the one we're watching this season (at least, they were defensively, especially in the first half of the season).
So when the question posed is what would Tom Brady do with this team in 2023, the answer should be "not much" because this team doesn't have the players that 2006 team did that helped Brady go 6-1.
They shouldn’t be held to the same standards. At that point Brady had more SB’s than Mac has comeback wins. Great players with track records get the benefit of the doubt because they have a track record and you can tangibly point to sustained success. Mac does not have a particularly great track record. Whether you attribute that to his failings, the team’s, or both, he has, at best, had middling success to date.
Regardless, we’re parsing an absurd hypothetical and trying to attribute some level of contribution to victory to games from18 years ago so it’s a pointless exercise on its face and even more so in the the depth people have gone down.
Regardless, we’re parsing an absurd hypothetical and trying to attribute some level of contribution to victory to games from18 years ago so it’s a pointless exercise on its face and even more so in the the depth people have gone down.
Well I'm really bringing this thread together.
The point is to find a bad situation offensively and compare QBs in those situations. I bring up the 2006 Pats because it's one the we know and can review if need be. Watching this absolute garbage game against the Bears in 2006 shows us a view of a best case QB managing a team to a win. Obviously the point isn't to complain that Mac isn't Brady, but rather to analyze Mac to a high standard. It's pointless to look at all of Mac's many meltdowns collectively. Let's look at him when the team as a whole is in a bad situation.
The point is to find a bad situation offensively and compare QBs in those situations. I bring up the 2006 Pats because it's one the we know and can review if need be. Watching this absolute garbage game against the Bears in 2006 shows us a view of a best case QB managing a team to a win. Obviously the point isn't to complain that Mac isn't Brady, but rather to analyze Mac to a high standard. It's pointless to look at all of Mac's many meltdowns collectively. Let's look at him when the team as a whole is in a bad situation.
This is so disingenuous, the offense has lead to a shit ton of points this season. How many points has the defense actually been responsible for?