The Michael McCorkle "Mac" Jones Thread

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Gut feeling is that Lawrence and Purdy would be doing as well or better. Purdy in particular has a strong Brady vibe to me when I see him play.

I wanted Fields over Mac but it's clear I was wrong and he's terrible. Maybe his coaching is holding him back but he has zero field awareness.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Immense help? I read you as essentially blaming Mac for his teammates not doing the fundamentals of their job. A missed FG, a dropped pass, not getting two feet down, defense giving up looooonnnggg 3rd down completions. These things are the basis for winning and, as DoTB points out, happened regularly when Brady was the QB. If his teammates simply do their job, the results look very different.
My statement was a question of how much help Mac needs to succeed. Does he need more help than the average bear? We can all agree that someone like an early career Alex Smith would have needed more help from his teammates than Brady ever did, for example.
 

tims4wins

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A couple points that align with @Deathofthebambino ’s argument.

The Chargers game in 2001. Chargers held a 26-19 lead with 3 mins left and the ball. They faced 2nd and 2, then 3rd and 1. They had LDT. Similar to the snow bowl, the D stopped them twice in short yardage. If they don’t get that stop, Brady never gets a chance, in either game.

The Bills game. David Patten anyone? Brady put up 9 points in regulation. No TDs. Mac would be eviscerated for such a performance.

The Jets game. On the take the lead FG drive, Brady had a pass deflected at the line float into Patten’s hands for a big gain. And then the Jets had a ton of time left to try to win it. What happened? Unlike say Dallas in 2021, the D stepped up and picked Vinnie.

It takes a team.
Edit: 2003 they had wins by scores like 12-0, 12-0, 9-3, 19-13, 17-6. This was after he had become Brady. At least to a degree. If Olindo Mare doesn’t miss twice Brady never completes the bomb to Troy Brown. Etc.
 
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Deathofthebambino

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I think the issue is that we are essentially arguing about Mac's ERA, or FIP if his defense/OL has been poor. That's the entire issue.

Apropos of nothing, Zack Grienke is 1-15 with a positive WAR this year.
It's not just his defense, his o line, it's also his receivers, the shitshow of a coaching staff he had last year, the decisions on when to bench/not bench certain players.

There are a million things outside of Mac's control that aren't going his way in these games (not all of them, but a very large number of them), whereas Brady's teams (and Matt Cassel for that matter) had the complete opposite.

In 2019, Tom Brady went 18/39 for 150 yards and 1 pick and had a 45.9 rating at the Bills, and the Pats won that game 16-10. If Mac Jones has a game like that, the Pats are losing 55-0 against the Bills.

3 weeks later, Brady went 31-45 for 249 yards (apparently what some are now calling an awful 5.53ypa), 1 pick, 1 td and an 80.7 rating, and the Pats won that game 33-0.

Brady went 26-47 for 216 yards, no tds, no picks and a 67.3 rating, and the Pats won the game 17-10.

The following week, he went 17-37 for 190 yards and a td for a 70.8 rating and the Pats won the game 13-9.


These were all in the same season. The point is that we remember all of Tom Brady's great games, great plays, great drives, but we don't remember all the times (or don't recognize it as such) when his teammates or the defense bailed him out. Mac isn't getting bailed out, he's required to be perfect and nobody, including Tom Brady, is perfect.
 

bakahump

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Totally thinking we need to invest in an OT and or a WR this year in the Draft. Start getting the tools in place for the next QB.
 

Eddie Jurak

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One 4th quarter comeback in 33 starts and 16 wins. There are both obviously worse teams than the Pats and obviously worse QBs than Mac who have managed to do better than 1 for 33.

I’m not sure how a basically .500 team can be viewed as uniquely terrible.
 

Dogman

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My statement was a question of how much help Mac needs to succeed. Does he need more help than the average bear? We can all agree that someone like an early career Alex Smith would have needed more help from his teammates than Brady ever did, for example.
I know and our statements are reasons why looking at results and placing the blame on Mac as preposterous. It's been said that if teammates performed the very basics of their jobs, the results look very different. Does he need more help than an average QB? Mac is an average QB and not getting enough of the basic job functions of his teammates.
 

DJnVa

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Death, I don't remember, unfortunately. 2 years ago might as well be a decade at this point.
1st and 10 on TB 44 with with 1:11 left: incomplete pass to Meyers. Not a great throw, but it was a blitz and there was some pressure coming in his face from the direction he was going to throw, band it was just out of Meyers reach. Michaels comment: "Raining as hard as it has all night right now."
2nd and 10: 7 yard completion to Meyers, goes OOB
3rd and 3 on TB 37 with 1:03 left: incomplete to Meyers, pass was knocked down on the LOS, Meyers was open for first down. Michaels comment before the snap: "56 yards in the rain, I think they will go for it.
4th and 3: they don't go for it. Folk tries a 56 yarder in the rain and hits the upright.

Game here: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New England Patriots Full Game FHD - YouTube
 
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Deathofthebambino

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One 4th quarter comeback in 33 starts and 16 wins. There are both obviously worse teams than the Pats and obviously worse QBs than Mac who have managed to do better than 1 for 33.

I’m not sure how a basically .500 team can be viewed as uniquely terrible.
The question that should be asked is how many of those should he have had, but was let down by teammates/coaches/defense?

Vs. how many of those were comeback opportunities he himself couldn't capitalize on.

I cannot believe that on SoSH we are looking at a results oriented stat for 1 player on an NFL team as if it means anything. It's basically even worse than a "Ringz" argument.

In 333 starts, Tom Brady had 46 4th quarter comebacks. An average of 1 for every 7.23 games.

Peyton Manning had 43 in 265 starts. An average of 1 for every 6.16 games.

Mahomes has 13 in 82 games, an average of 1 for every 6.30 games.

Kirk Cousins has 22 in 139 games, an average of 1 for every 6.31 games.

Aaron Rodgers has 21 in 224 games, or 1 every 10.66 games.


What is that stat telling anyone?
 

Spelunker

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It's not just his defense, his o line, it's also his receivers, the shitshow of a coaching staff he had last year, the decisions on when to bench/not bench certain players.

There are a million things outside of Mac's control that aren't going his way in these games (not all of them, but a very large number of them), whereas Brady's teams (and Matt Cassel for that matter) had the complete opposite.

In 2019, Tom Brady went 18/39 for 150 yards and 1 pick and had a 45.9 rating at the Bills, and the Pats won that game 16-10. If Mac Jones has a game like that, the Pats are losing 55-0 against the Bills.

3 weeks later, Brady went 31-45 for 249 yards (apparently what some are now calling an awful 5.53ypa), 1 pick, 1 td and an 80.7 rating, and the Pats won that game 33-0.

Brady went 26-47 for 216 yards, no tds, no picks and a 67.3 rating, and the Pats won the game 17-10.

The following week, he went 17-37 for 190 yards and a td for a 70.8 rating and the Pats won the game 13-9.


These were all in the same season. The point is that we remember all of Tom Brady's great games, great plays, great drives, but we don't remember all the times (or don't recognize it as such) when his teammates or the defense bailed him out. Mac isn't getting bailed out, he's required to be perfect and nobody, including Tom Brady, is perfect.
Right. Tom Brady wouldn't be doing shit with this line and these playmakers. QB is the most impactful position for sure, but they're still less impactful than the sum of the rest of the offense. The notion that it's solely on the QB for not winning close games when that QB is doing a much better job than the people around him is just weird.
 

8slim

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I've long felt that the Pats 2008 season was a great control group for the QB vs. weapons/OL debate.

Matt Cassell was... fine. And that year the Pats were the 8th highest scoring team in the league, ranking 11th on passing expected points and 3rd on rushing expected points. And of course that team had a bunch of high-end weapons -- Moss, Welker, K. Faulk -- and a bunch of productive second-tier guys -- Sammy Morris, Ben Watson, Jabar Gaffney. Also ran out an OL of Light, Mankins, Kopen, Neal and Kaczur.

Insert Mac into the 2023 equivalent of that roster and I suspect he'd look pretty good.
 

BaseballJones

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Right. Tom Brady wouldn't be doing shit with this line and these playmakers. QB is the most impactful position for sure, but they're still less impactful than the sum of the rest of the offense. The notion that it's solely on the QB for not winning close games when that QB is doing a much better job than the people around him is just weird.
Brady would do fine with these playmakers. The line, however, is something entirely different.

I'm willing to bet that on most plays, looking at the all-22, there's an open receiver for the QB to throw to IF he had time and IF he could correctly identify which receiver is open. The latter is not easy to do when the former doesn't happen.

But this is where Brady was maybe the best of all time. You look and you think anyone can play QB like Brady with so many open receivers. Well....I bet most QBs have open receivers to throw to much of the time. Even the slowest ones are still fast humans and there's plenty of open space to get clear of a defender, lots of ways of scheming guys open, etc. But that only works if the QB has the ability to see things, and that only happens if he has some semblance of time to throw. (and the not great QBs can't do a good job with seeing things even if he has time)

I can say this with confidence because we have seen Brady do more with less than what NE currently has at the skill positions. So HE has the ability to do it IF he has time. Mac...well...we hope he will, with more time.
 

Shelterdog

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Cassell was fine and played pretty well but let's not understate the fact that (excluding pre-season) he only threw a combined 72 passes in his seven years in college and the pros and his only starting experience was at Chatworth High School.
 

Spelunker

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Brady would do fine with these playmakers. The line, however, is something entirely different.

I'm willing to bet that on most plays, looking at the all-22, there's an open receiver for the QB to throw to IF he had time and IF he could correctly identify which receiver is open. The latter is not easy to do when the former doesn't happen.

But this is where Brady was maybe the best of all time. You look and you think anyone can play QB like Brady with so many open receivers. Well....I bet most QBs have open receivers to throw to much of the time. Even the slowest ones are still fast humans and there's plenty of open space to get clear of a defender, lots of ways of scheming guys open, etc. But that only works if the QB has the ability to see things, and that only happens if he has some semblance of time to throw. (and the not great QBs can't do a good job with seeing things even if he has time)

I can say this with confidence because we have seen Brady do more with less than what NE currently has at the skill positions. So HE has the ability to do it IF he has time. Mac...well...we hope he will, with more time.
I'm referring to the combination. He might do fine with these playmakers with a better line, or better playmakers with this line, but I don't think he'd be doing much with this line and these playmakers.

Which is largely the point: none of these things- not even the QB- exist in a vacuum.
 

Cellar-Door

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I've long felt that the Pats 2008 season was a great control group for the QB vs. weapons/OL debate.

Matt Cassell was... fine. And that year the Pats were the 8th highest scoring team in the league, ranking 11th on passing expected points and 3rd on rushing expected points. And of course that team had a bunch of high-end weapons -- Moss, Welker, K. Faulk -- and a bunch of productive second-tier guys -- Sammy Morris, Ben Watson, Jabar Gaffney. Also ran out an OL of Light, Mankins, Kopen, Neal and Kaczur.

Insert Mac into the 2023 equivalent of that roster and I suspect he'd look pretty good.
I mean, insert anybody into that offense and they look pretty good, the same team a year earlier with Brady is generally considered a top 5 ALL-TIME offense.
Though Cassel is an interesting comp for Mac, stylistically different, but Cassel had some good years, 2008 wasn't his best season interestingly, that was 2010 with Kansas City (built entirely around Jamaal Charles, only 1 decent WR in Bowe and Tony Moeaki at TE).
Cassel probably had a lower floor than Mac, but he graded out (eyeballed using rate, QBR and ANY/A no PFF etc as they didn't exist) from 2008-2014 as something like this:
2008- borderline top 10? 10-14 range
2009- mid 20s
2010- 8-11 range
2011- mid 20s again for half a season before IR
2012- 30s, got injured, benched
2013- took over starting role, finished upper 20s (20-24)
2014- was on track for low 20s or 30s broke foot

After that he was a higher end backup for a bit.

I think the floor on Mac is higher but by the same test you'd probably put him at:
2021- 15ish (15-17)
2022- mid 20s
2023- late teens to early 20s (16-21 range) in a small sample.

So yeah... Mac does seem like he may be a slightly better Cassel? Very much heavily O-line, weapons and coaching dependent.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Brady would do fine with these playmakers. The line, however, is something entirely different.

I'm willing to bet that on most plays, looking at the all-22, there's an open receiver for the QB to throw to IF he had time and IF he could correctly identify which receiver is open. The latter is not easy to do when the former doesn't happen.

But this is where Brady was maybe the best of all time. You look and you think anyone can play QB like Brady with so many open receivers. Well....I bet most QBs have open receivers to throw to much of the time. Even the slowest ones are still fast humans and there's plenty of open space to get clear of a defender, lots of ways of scheming guys open, etc. But that only works if the QB has the ability to see things, and that only happens if he has some semblance of time to throw. (and the not great QBs can't do a good job with seeing things even if he has time)

I can say this with confidence because we have seen Brady do more with less than what NE currently has at the skill positions. So HE has the ability to do it IF he has time. Mac...well...we hope he will, with more time.
I completely disagree that we saw Brady do more with less than what Mac has right now.

I mean, Mac is on pace (over a 16 game season) to give us a completion % of 68.8%, 4,376 yards, 32tds, 16ints, 88.8 rating.

Brady in 2019 (with IMO, a comparable group of "playmakers") was 60.8%, 4,057 yards, 24tds, 8ints, and an 88.0 rating.


Let's look a bit deeper though. Mac has thrown the ball away zero times this season is on pace to get sacked 48 times (sack % 5.9).

Brady was sacked only 27 times, for a sack % of 4.2. However, he threw the ball away FORTY (40) times.

Mac's bad pass rate this year is 11.5%. Brady in 2019 was 20.6%. Mac has put the ball on target 79.2% of the time, Brady was 72.6%.

Brady was only pressured 18.2% of the time, Mac has been pressured 26.7% of the time. Brady was hurried 55 times. Mac is on pace to be hurried 136 times. Mac's pocket time is 2.2 seconds, Brady's was 2.5. Brady was blitzed 198 times, Mac is on pace to be blitzed 264 times. Brady threw 124 passes out of play action. Mac is on pace to throw 40 passes out of play action.


Mac is putting up basically the same passing stats as Brady, but with far less time to do it. Brady's other 2 years with bad/injured skill guys like Mac has now were in 2006 and 2013, and his numbers look about the same in those seasons too.
 

Bergs

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I've long felt that the Pats 2008 season was a great control group for the QB vs. weapons/OL debate.

Matt Cassell was... fine. And that year the Pats were the 8th highest scoring team in the league, ranking 11th on passing expected points and 3rd on rushing expected points. And of course that team had a bunch of high-end weapons -- Moss, Welker, K. Faulk -- and a bunch of productive second-tier guys -- Sammy Morris, Ben Watson, Jabar Gaffney. Also ran out an OL of Light, Mankins, Kopen, Neal and Kaczur.

Insert Mac into the 2023 equivalent of that roster and I suspect he'd look pretty good.
Related to all of this, the 2008 Patriots started the season with what was at the time projected to be one of the - if not THE - softest schedules in NFL history (it ended up being #8).
 

Deathofthebambino

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Sunday may be a good day to have Mac throw 3 passes all day again.
Yep, probably going to be a sloppy, rainy, nasty game.

Unfortunately, I have no idea how we can run the ball against their defensive line.

Or throw the ball against their defensive line.

Only hope I see of winning this game is if we eat Zach Wilson alive, force him to make mistakes, get some turnovers and short fields and win a slugfest. Going to be very interesting to see what our young kicker does on FGA in bad weather.
 

Jimbodandy

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I'm referring to the combination. He might do fine with these playmakers with a better line, or better playmakers with this line, but I don't think he'd be doing much with this line and these playmakers.

Which is largely the point: none of these things- not even the QB- exist in a vacuum.
This exactly. You add Hill and Waddle to this team, and it's still struggling to score. You add peak Brady/Manning/Mahomes to this team, and it still struggles to score. Do two of those things, maybe OL and receivers, now we're talking.

edit: FWIW, I expect the OL to come together around week 5 and start playing much better than they are now, albeit still nowhere near "plus", just not ass. We'll have a pretty accurate picture of this team's actual offensive potential in a few weeks. Expecting good line play this early with mass injuries and a new OC/OLC is not reasonable.
 

Deathofthebambino

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This exactly. You add Hill and Waddle to this team, and it's still struggling to score.
I'm not so sure this part is true. Tua got rid of the ball last week in an average of 1.98 seconds (I believe that was the stat @SMU_Sox posted), which is ludicrous, even though he wasn't even facing much pressure. The reason being because Hill and Waddle get off the line and open so quickly, you don't need to wait around for them to get open. They're always fucking open. Uggh...

It was 2-3 step drop, and release as one of them is sitting down after immediately creating separation.
 

Super Nomario

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Instead of making plays like Edelman picking one up off the turf in the Super Bowl, or Vinatieri hitting a 45 yarder in a blizzard, or Malcolm Butler making a pick in the end zone, or Troy Brown returning a blocked field goal to the house or Ty Law making a pick six in the SB, or Vinateiri making a 48 yarder to win, and on and on and on...

Tom Brady had guys step up all the time which resulted in win after win after win. Instead of making those plays, Mac's teammates are fucking duffing them all the time, and I'm not even getting into the fucking shit show of an offensive line he's been and still is playing with.
I agree with your point here with respect to his offensive teammates, but if you start talking about the rest of the team as a whole, not just offense, Mac has seen plenty of teammates step up. They beat LAC his rookie year on a fourth-quarter pick six. Last year Marcus Jones had the walkoff punt return against the Jets. During Mac's tenure, most of the team's wins have come on really good defensive performances.
 

Jimbodandy

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I'm not so sure this part is true. Tua got rid of the ball last week in an average of 1.98 seconds (I believe that was the stat @SMU_Sox posted), which is ludicrous, even though he wasn't even facing much pressure. The reason being because Hill and Waddle get off the line and open so quickly, you don't need to wait around for them to get open. They're always fucking open. Uggh...

It was 2-3 step drop, and release as one of them is sitting down after immediately creating separation.
I'm not saying that it wouldn't be a huge improvement. We'd convert more of the "grind it out for 80 yards downfield without making a mistake" drives for sure. But that's the same problem with slightly higher conversion rates. Hill and Waddle had 9 catches for 126 combined. Not winning championships with production like that.
 

Deathofthebambino

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I agree with your point here with respect to his offensive teammates, but if you start talking about the rest of the team as a whole, not just offense, Mac has seen plenty of teammates step up. They beat LAC his rookie year on a fourth-quarter pick six. Last year Marcus Jones had the walkoff punt return against the Jets. During Mac's tenure, most of the team's wins have come on really good defensive performances.
We could say the same about Brady for dozens of his wins too, especially early in his career.

In 2001, they had the 6th best defense in the NFL.

In 2002, they had 17th (missed playoffs)

In 2003, ranked #1

in 2004, ranked #2

In 2005, ranked #17 (lost divisional round 27-13)

In 2006, ranked #2 (lost the shootout to Indy in the AFCC 38-34).

Even in 2007, they had the #4 defense.

In 2008, they ranked #8

In 2009, they ranked #9

In 2010, they ranked #8


This is part of why I'm so bothered by our lack of skill position guys and offensive line pieces. Bill has proven he can turn almost any group of guys into a top 10 defense, and he can still get enough talent at the skill positions and along the line without sacrificing that, just as he did for years following the 2006 season. The problem remains that he's not using his draft picks or free agent signings on offense well anymore.
 

Deathofthebambino

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I'm not saying that it wouldn't be a huge improvement. We'd convert more of the "grind it out for 80 yards downfield without making a mistake" drives for sure. But that's the same problem with slightly higher conversion rates. Hill and Waddle had 9 catches for 126 combined. Not winning championships with production like that.
I agree with that for the most part, but Bill did a fantastic job taking away the deep stuff against them, so they took what the defense was giving. But even then, they turned 9 catches into 126 yards on mostly short yardage throws. Hill's longest catch was a 15 yarder, and Waddle had the one catch for 32 yards.

Meanwhile, our combination of Parker/JuJu/Bourne caught 15 balls (mostly short yardage too) into only 114 yards.

You can go down the field getting 14 yards per reception pretty quickly, and maybe even have a bad play or two along the way. It's much harder to do at 7.6 ypc.
 

jezza1918

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We could say the same about Brady for dozens of his wins too, especially early in his career.

In 2001, they had the 6th best defense in the NFL.

In 2002, they had 17th (missed playoffs)

In 2003, ranked #1

in 2004, ranked #2

In 2005, ranked #17 (lost divisional round 27-13)

In 2006, ranked #2 (lost the shootout to Indy in the AFCC 38-34).

Even in 2007, they had the #4 defense.

In 2008, they ranked #8

In 2009, they ranked #9

In 2010, they ranked #8


This is part of why I'm so bothered by our lack of skill position guys and offensive line pieces. Bill has proven he can turn almost any group of guys into a top 10 defense, and he can still get enough talent at the skill positions and along the line without sacrificing that, just as he did for years following the 2006 season. The problem remains that he's not using his draft picks or free agent signings on offense well anymore.
This is well said. I mean a huge debate after Sunday nights game revolved around Pop Douglas’ benching. The fact that a 6th rounder in his second game created such a stir says quite a bit about what Mac is working with right?
 

Justthetippett

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This is well said. I mean a huge debate after Sunday nights game revolved around Pop Douglas’ benching. The fact that a 6th rounder in his second game created such a stir says quite a bit about what Mac is working with right?
Definitely. That said, he's not just any 6th rounder. He's basically their only guy with any burst. And it just stands out so clearly. Boutte being out was much less of a talking point (and he also probably has the talent to be in their top five after two games).
 

Cellar-Door

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This is well said. I mean a huge debate after Sunday nights game revolved around Pop Douglas’ benching. The fact that a 6th rounder in his second game created such a stir says quite a bit about what Mac is working with right?
I mean... not really? I say this in the nicest way but fans are incredibly dumb on the whole and every fanbase thinks that their young WRs are studs being held back by the moron coaching staff.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Definitely. That said, he's not just any 6th rounder. He's basically their only guy with any burst. And it just stands out so clearly. Boutte being out was much less of a talking point (and he also probably has the talent to be in their top five after two games).
Which in and of itself says a lot too, because currently Kayshon Boutte is tied with me for # of receptions in the NFL.
 

jezza1918

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I mean... not really? I say this in the nicest way but fans are incredibly dumb on the whole and every fanbase thinks that their young WRs are studs being held back by the moron coaching staff.
Oh I agree...I was fine with the benching, to be clear. I just meant to use it as an example to show that Mac is devoid of true weapons for today's speed driven NFL. The fact that the offense seems to be relying on a 6th rounder in week two to be one of the more dynamic playmakers says a lot about the devoid of talent.
 

Deathofthebambino

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I mean... not really? I say this in the nicest way but fans are incredibly dumb on the whole and every fanbase thinks that their young WRs are studs being held back by the moron coaching staff.
He was literally benched after 6 snaps for a fumble, and yet Bill thought enough of him to let him handle punts. The whole thing made no sense, honestly. If you're worried about a guy fumbling, the last thing you do is put him out there to catch punts (unless its Cyrus Jones, who has blackmail pictures of Bill or something). One week earlier, Pop had the 2nd most targets and 3rd most receptions on the team. His speed and agility jump off the screen compared to the other guys they have out there.

Whether or not he actually turns into a stud, I have no idea, but I know what he brings to the table for them offensively is sorely lacking, and he has the ability create more space for other guys. Which goes to the point, the fact that a 6th round pick is the only guy with his skillset on offense, a skillset that is supremely important in today's NFL, is not saying he's going to turn into Julian Edelman, it says that Bill has sucked at identifying what works in today's game on offense.
 

RedOctober3829

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He was literally benched after 6 snaps for a fumble, and yet Bill thought enough of him to let him handle punts. The whole thing made no sense, honestly. If you're worried about a guy fumbling, the last thing you do is put him out there to catch punts (unless its Cyrus Jones, who has blackmail pictures of Bill or something). One week earlier, Pop had the 2nd most targets and 3rd most receptions on the team. His speed and agility jump off the screen compared to the other guys they have out there.

Whether or not he actually turns into a stud, I have no idea, but I know what he brings to the table for them offensively is sorely lacking, and he has the ability create more space for other guys. Which goes to the point, the fact that a 6th round pick is the only guy with his skillset on offense, a skillset that is supremely important in today's NFL, is not saying he's going to turn into Julian Edelman, it says that Bill has sucked at identifying what works in today's game on offense.
Agreed. The whole benching him thing is ridiculous when you see he was out there for punt returns. As you say, Douglas' skill set is unique to him on this team and he needs to be out there.
 

RedOctober3829

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We could say the same about Brady for dozens of his wins too, especially early in his career.

In 2001, they had the 6th best defense in the NFL.

In 2002, they had 17th (missed playoffs)

In 2003, ranked #1

in 2004, ranked #2

In 2005, ranked #17 (lost divisional round 27-13)

In 2006, ranked #2 (lost the shootout to Indy in the AFCC 38-34).

Even in 2007, they had the #4 defense.

In 2008, they ranked #8

In 2009, they ranked #9

In 2010, they ranked #8


This is part of why I'm so bothered by our lack of skill position guys and offensive line pieces. Bill has proven he can turn almost any group of guys into a top 10 defense, and he can still get enough talent at the skill positions and along the line without sacrificing that, just as he did for years following the 2006 season. The problem remains that he's not using his draft picks or free agent signings on offense well anymore.
He has not drafted well nor has he done well in FA/trades on offense for years now. Hunter Henry has been his best acquisition in that regards since 2019. The amount of misses on that side of the ball is staggering. He'll sign Davon Godcheaux to a $10 million AAV contract but skimp on WR and tackle. He swung and missed badly on Nelson Agholor and Jonnu Smith and committed a combined $72 million and got a combined 123 catches and 6 touchdowns. Dalton Keene and Devin Asiasi were clear misses. Drafting Sony Michel instead of Nick Chubb. Mostly missed on Isaiah Wynn. Huge reach on Cole Strange. We all know about N'Keal Harry. 2 years in a row right tackle has been a disaster. What has he done well? Hunter Henry, DeVante Parker, Mike Onwenu, Jakobi Meyers, Rhamondre Stevenson, Damien Harris......and I think that's it. I think Mac will turn out to be a good investment, but the jury is out.
 

Cellar-Door

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Aug 1, 2006
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Agreed. The whole benching him thing is ridiculous when you see he was out there for punt returns. As you say, Douglas' skill set is unique to him on this team and he needs to be out there.
Even the quote from BOB made it seem like they sat him down briefly but then it was just gamelan and using Gesicki more that prevented him coming back

Edit that's kind of the thing with this pass catching group, nobody is BAD but also nobody is so good that you have to play him. Right now the vets are getting first Crack, and the TEs and Parker played pretty well, so it comes down to the leash on Juju
 

Jinhocho

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The Pats have a better D than O in Mac's career. Mac has not put up like a big time QB, it is why he has so many questions around him. It could be worse (see Fields, Justin or Wilson, Zach or Lance, Trey) but that is damning with faint praise. He was given the job, struggled with it at times and look pretty good at others. In no way shape or form, however, does he look like a gamechanger. It seems to be the debates about his ceiling and floor are similar to what people said his comp would be - Chad PEnnington. If that is his ceiling, it will be time to move on. If that is his floor, well maybe we have something here.
 

rodderick

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I completely disagree that we saw Brady do more with less than what Mac has right now.

I mean, Mac is on pace (over a 16 game season) to give us a completion % of 68.8%, 4,376 yards, 32tds, 16ints, 88.8 rating.

Brady in 2019 (with IMO, a comparable group of "playmakers") was 60.8%, 4,057 yards, 24tds, 8ints, and an 88.0 rating.


Let's look a bit deeper though. Mac has thrown the ball away zero times this season is on pace to get sacked 48 times (sack % 5.9).

Brady was sacked only 27 times, for a sack % of 4.2. However, he threw the ball away FORTY (40) times.

Mac's bad pass rate this year is 11.5%. Brady in 2019 was 20.6%. Mac has put the ball on target 79.2% of the time, Brady was 72.6%.

Brady was only pressured 18.2% of the time, Mac has been pressured 26.7% of the time. Brady was hurried 55 times. Mac is on pace to be hurried 136 times. Mac's pocket time is 2.2 seconds, Brady's was 2.5. Brady was blitzed 198 times, Mac is on pace to be blitzed 264 times. Brady threw 124 passes out of play action. Mac is on pace to throw 40 passes out of play action.


Mac is putting up basically the same passing stats as Brady, but with far less time to do it. Brady's other 2 years with bad/injured skill guys like Mac has now were in 2006 and 2013, and his numbers look about the same in those seasons too.
2006 Patriots: 7th in scoring (couldn't find EPA/Play for that time frame)
2013 Patriots: 7th in scoring, 8th in offensive EPA/Play.
2019 Patriots: 7th in scoring, 15th in offensive EPA/Play.

The 2023 Patriots at this point are 24th in offensive EPA/Play. I honestly couldn't care less how Mac Jones' box score stats and passer rating (lol) look when he's on pace for 850 attempts, and I especially don't care about how his numbers in a 2023 passing environment look like in contrast to the 2006 and 2013 passing environments. The fact that we have to routinely go back to 2019 as if that's the representation of Tom Brady's career is silly. That season was atypical for a variety of reasons and even then the production was better than this by a lot of metrics. I'm trying to steer out of this thread because the crusade to prove only weapons matter is reaching the point of absurdity, but we've really reached the "Brady would be the same" stage. Goodness.

Edit: I'm not even going to argue the silliness of the ranking of the defenses Brady had by points allowed and not EPA/Play DVOA because that would just make it incredibly clear how those teams benefitted from amazing offenses that never turned the ball over and drove down the field routinely. I'll just say that it should be obvious that any stat that says the 2010 Patriots had a top 10 defense in football is probably lying to you.
 

Eddie Jurak

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I cannot believe that on SoSH we are looking at a results oriented stat for 1 player on an NFL team as if it means anything. It's basically even worse than a "Ringz" argument.

In 333 starts, Tom Brady had 46 4th quarter comebacks. An average of 1 for every 7.23 games.

Peyton Manning had 43 in 265 starts. An average of 1 for every 6.16 games.

Mahomes has 13 in 82 games, an average of 1 for every 6.30 games.

Kirk Cousins has 22 in 139 games, an average of 1 for every 6.31 games.

Aaron Rodgers has 21 in 224 games, or 1 every 10.66 games.


What is that stat telling anyone?
As to Ringz, Brady's track record of 7 SB wins in 10 appearances, in 21 seasons as an NFL starter, is also an extreme outlier. Should we dismiss that as an indication of Brady's greatness because his teammates contributed to every single win? A lot of these wins were close and a lot of Brady's teammates did make big plays. Do we think a mediocre or merely good QB could achieve anything comparable?

Well, among these QBs, and among basically all of the QBs who started a lot of games in 2021-2022, Mac is an extreme outlier (every 6-10 games vs every 33 games). It's fair to ask why. It could be a fluke. It could be meaningful. The fact that it is so extreme makes "fluke" a bit harder to buy.

Regarding Mac, it is true that on every failed drive, some of his teammates fucked up. But the trouble I have with the teammates argument is that we are looking at what is basically a .500 team. The Pats have 16 wins in Mac's 33 starts, and 18 wins in the 36 games the team has played since 2021. As teammates go, we seem to be looking at mediocrity rather than awfulness. In 2020, the Patriots were similarly mediocre, finishing 7-9. Yet Cam Newton, 7-8 as a starter, led 3 4th quarter game winning drives and would have had a 4th and an 8th win but for being stopped in the backfield. Is anyone prepared to argue thta the 2020 Pats were better than the 2021-23 Pats? How about the 2000 Pats? They were bad (5-11 with Bledose starting all 16 games), but Bledsoe also led 3 4th quarter game winning drives that year: in his career, 31 drives in 193 starts, for 1 every 6.2 games. You can't really say that 2000 Bledsoe or 2020 Newton were able to win games in the 4th because their teammates were better, can you?

A better argument, perhaps, is that these Pats are .500 because of their defense, which is very good even as the offense is very bad.
 
Last edited:

slamminsammya

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Jul 31, 2006
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Mac has had some bad teammate luck in these close games but there is also the question of why are they playing catch up in the first place. The offense isn't good enough to get many comfortable wins.
 

Justthetippett

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Aug 9, 2015
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The Pats have a better D than O in Mac's career. Mac has not put up like a big time QB, it is why he has so many questions around him. It could be worse (see Fields, Justin or Wilson, Zach or Lance, Trey) but that is damning with faint praise. He was given the job, struggled with it at times and look pretty good at others. In no way shape or form, however, does he look like a gamechanger. It seems to be the debates about his ceiling and floor are similar to what people said his comp would be - Chad PEnnington. If that is his ceiling, it will be time to move on. If that is his floor, well maybe we have something here.
I think the Pennington physical tools comp works, but he had better anticipation than Mac has shown. Pennington also won quite a few games for some lousy franchises. Mac has the ball in his hands every offensive play and has to figure it out. Otherwise we move on.
 

flymrfreakjar

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Good stat from Mina Kimes' podcast:

Since week 16 of last year, Mac Jones has more touchdowns than anybody in the NFL. Well, tied with Mahomes.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Apr 12, 2005
42,094
The fact that we have to routinely go back to 2019 as if that's the representation of Tom Brady's career is silly. That season was atypical for a variety of reasons and even then the production was better than this by a lot of metrics.
The reason we use 2019 as an example is it's the closest comp we have, considering a lot of the team has been the same during Mac's 3 years since. I mean, in your same post, you said we can't compare 2006 and 2013 passing environments to now, so what can we use?

But what was "atypical" about that season?

In the two prior seasons, Brady threw for almost 9,000 yards, had 61 tds, 19ints, and a rating around 100. He completed 66.3% and 65.88% of his passes.


In the two seasons following 2019, he threw for almost 10,000 yards, 83tds, 24ints, and had a rating around 102. He completed 65.7 and 67.5% of his passes.


2019, the last year with a shit offensive skill position group, a beat up/bad offensive line, he had a year comparable to Mac. Other than that, what was different? Was Tom Brady not mentally tough enough to deal with his contract situation? Was he in a fight with the coaches? The same coaches, Bill and Josh, that he had for years?

The stat isn't a "fluke." The stat is fucking useless. That's the point. If you never look at anything in football in context and just look at numbers, you don't get anything of value. Mac Jones could easily have 4 of those come from behind wins in his last 6 starts, but instead we had Meyers playing pin the tail on the donkey with the football, Rham fumbling inside the 10 against Cincinnati, an NFL receiver who couldn't catch a ball in his hands in Bourne, an NFL receiver in the same game who couldn't get his feet down twice, and an offensive line that couldn't block my mother last week on the final play. If those 4 games go the other way, we're all here praising Mac for hanging in and getting a W, but instead, for reasons outside of Mac's control, I'm constantly reading a stat that means what, exactly? Mac can't get it done? Have there been games where Mac was the reason they didn't pull it out? Absolutely, but the idea he's the reason they've not won a single one of these games (except one) isn't based in reality. That's the point.

This isn't just about skill position players either, Tom Brady threw the ball into the ground 40 times in 2019 when facing pressure. And he faced less pressure than Mac is facing right now. If folks think Brady isn't firing passes into the dirt that Mac is running around trying to make plays on, then I have no idea how to continue this either. This isn't a dig on Brady either, who is my favorite player and non-family member/friend on Earth, it just is.

@slamminsammya I think you have a point though. I think it would make a lot of sense to figure out why they get out to such slow starts (at least to start this season).
 

BaseballJones

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Oct 1, 2015
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Good stat from Mina Kimes' podcast:

Since week 16 of last year, Mac Jones has more touchdowns than anybody in the NFL. Well, tied with Mahomes.
That's a 4-game stretch. Very SSS. But here's Mac's last 5 games played in the NFL:

21-33, 63.6%, 240 yds, 2 td, 0 int
20-33, 60.6%, 204 yds, 2 td, 0 int
26-40, 65.0%, 243 yds, 3 td, 3 int
35-54, 64.8%, 316 yds, 3 td, 1 int
31-42, 73.8%, 231 yds, 1 td, 1 int

133-202, 65.8%, 1,234 yds, 6.1 y/a, 11 td, 4 int, 92.3 rating

Project those #s over 17 games:

452-687, 65.8%, 4,195 yds, 37 td, 14 int
 

Deathofthebambino

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Apr 12, 2005
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As to Ringz, Brady's track record of 7 SB wins in 10 appearances, in 21 seasons as an NFL starter, is also an extreme outlier. Should we dismiss that as an indication of Brady's greatness because his teammates contributed to every single win? A lot of these wins were close and a lot of Brady's teammates did make big plays. Do we think a mediocre or merely good QB could achieve anything comparable?

Well, among these QBs, and among basically all of the QBs who started a lot of games in 2021-2022, Mac is an extreme outlier (every 6-10 games vs every 33 games). It's fair to ask why. It could be a fluke. It could be meaningful. The fact that it is so extreme makes "fluke" a bit harder to buy.

Regarding Mac, it is true that on every failed drive, some of his teammates fucked up. But the trouble I have with the teammates argument is that we are looking at what is basically a .500 team. The Pats have 16 wins in Mac's 33 starts, and 18 wins in the 36 games the team has played since 2021. As teammates go, we seem to be looking at mediocrity rather than awfulness. In 2020, the Patriots were similarly mediocre, finishing 7-9. Yet Cam Newton, 7-8 as a starter, led 3 4th quarter game winning drives and would have had a 4th and an 8th win but for being stopped in the backfield. Is anyone prepared to argue thta the 2020 Pats were better than the 2021-23 Pats? How about the 2000 Pats? They were bad (5-11 with Bledose starting all 16 games), but Bledsoe also led 3 4th quarter game winning drives that year: in his career, 31 drives in 193 starts, for 1 every 6.2 games. You can't really say that 2000 Bledsoe or 2020 Newton were able to win games in the 4th because their teammates were better, can you?

A better argument, perhaps, is that these Pats are .500 because of their defense, which is very good even as the offense is very bad.

That's the distinction in bold, I think we're looking awfulness from his teammates and coaches on the offensive side of the ball.

I know @SMU_Sox has them around 6th-7th worst in skill position groupings in the NLF this year. I'd have them maybe a spot worse, but I also believe he's got the worst offensive line in football right now, and he's on his third OC in 3 years.

Then we look back over his career, it's tough to find someone who has had 3 years of worse offensive skill position players, and worse offensive lines and worse coaching situations in total.

One of Cam's game winning drives was against the Jets. The winning play, a 51 yard field goal at the buzzer by Nick Folk. Mac gave Nick Folk a chance to do that against Tampa, he hit the upright.

His game winning drive against Arizona. The Pats got the ball in a tie game at their own 35 after Arizona missed a 45 yarder to take the lead. Cam Newton hit James White for a loss of a yard, he then got sacked for a loss of 2 yards, then he ran for 14 and picked up an extra 15 for a lowering the head penalty against the tackler. Then a pass to Byrd for 5, a run by White for 2, and Nick Folk again makes a 50 yarder for the win.

I believe the third game that year, the Pats won 28-14, but because it was tied 14-14 going into the 4th, Cam gets credit for a "Game winning drive" because you get that if you lead a team to a score to take the lead in the 4th and they never give up the lead. That touchdown to Asiasi came with 14 minutes to go in the game. Then he threw another to Sony Michel with 11:42 left in the game. The defense didn't give up a score, the Pats never scored again. It was probably the best game Cam played as a Patriot, but it's not like he was leading the team back with a couple minutes to go on the clock.


These stats are useless without context.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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That's a 4-game stretch. Very SSS. But here's Mac's last 5 games played in the NFL:

21-33, 63.6%, 240 yds, 2 td, 0 int
20-33, 60.6%, 204 yds, 2 td, 0 int
26-40, 65.0%, 243 yds, 3 td, 3 int
35-54, 64.8%, 316 yds, 3 td, 1 int
31-42, 73.8%, 231 yds, 1 td, 1 int

133-202, 65.8%, 1,234 yds, 6.1 y/a, 11 td, 4 int, 92.3 rating

Project those #s over 17 games:

452-687, 65.8%, 4,195 yds, 37 td, 14 int
Sound and fury signifying a projected three win season.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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May 20, 2003
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That's a 4-game stretch. Very SSS. But here's Mac's last 5 games played in the NFL:

21-33, 63.6%, 240 yds, 2 td, 0 int
20-33, 60.6%, 204 yds, 2 td, 0 int
26-40, 65.0%, 243 yds, 3 td, 3 int
35-54, 64.8%, 316 yds, 3 td, 1 int
31-42, 73.8%, 231 yds, 1 td, 1 int

133-202, 65.8%, 1,234 yds, 6.1 y/a, 11 td, 4 int, 92.3 rating

Project those #s over 17 games:

452-687, 65.8%, 4,195 yds, 37 td, 14 int
And yet he's 1-4 in those games, and the defense hasn't allowed that many points either. It's a very strange dichotomy. The special teams were awful in Buffalo, but the defense allowed 22 against CIN, 21 against BUF, 19 against PHI and 24 against MIA.

As discussed there's some bad luck involved, but there are also not a lot of FGs to help out the offense, and a couple of pick 6s don't help. IIRC a fair number of his INTs take place in the red zone, which really hurts.

Mac's stats are good but there are still not enough points being put up on the board. It's maddening.
 

IdiotKicker

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Nov 21, 2005
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That's a 4-game stretch. Very SSS. But here's Mac's last 5 games played in the NFL:

21-33, 63.6%, 240 yds, 2 td, 0 int
20-33, 60.6%, 204 yds, 2 td, 0 int
26-40, 65.0%, 243 yds, 3 td, 3 int
35-54, 64.8%, 316 yds, 3 td, 1 int
31-42, 73.8%, 231 yds, 1 td, 1 int

133-202, 65.8%, 1,234 yds, 6.1 y/a, 11 td, 4 int, 92.3 rating

Project those #s over 17 games:

452-687, 65.8%, 4,195 yds, 37 td, 14 int
The 6.1 y/a would be tied for the worst in the league with Kyler Murray last year. So yeah, if you have to throw a lot because you’re behind and you only have the short game available to you, you’ll complete a lot of passes for short yardage that add up to a lot of yards because you aren’t running the ball, but ultimately won’t score enough. We can’t box score scout our way out of this one.