Agreed. Much of his recent stats look good, but it's not producing wins on the field.
The Michael McCorkle "Mac" Jones Thread
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Really, I'm sitting here in a thread where people are blaming one guy for the fact the Pats aren't winning games, but you want to judge the Pats defense on EPA/Play instead of the actual amount of points they gave up as a unit?
That 2001 defense that gave up the 24th most yards in the NFL, but only the 6th most points, they sucked, right? How about the #1 ranked scoring defense in the NFL in 2003, that gave up the 7th most yards in the NFL In 2004, 2nd best in points allowed, but 9th best in yards allowed. All those years that Bill used "bent but don't break" strategies, he was doing it wrong, because it doesn't look good on EPA/Play.
Let me know what you think those defenses EPA/Play DVOA would have been. When that stat can account for a team being down 30-0 and picking up chunk plays against a prevent, maybe I'll take it more seriously than a stat that judges the defense by how many points they actually give up.
Why wouldn't that 2010 defense be in the top 10 of the NFL? Was it the fact they gave up 47 points in their last 5 games of the season, with final scores of 45-3, 36-7, 31-27, 34-3 and 38-7? Was it the fact they led the NFL with 25 interceptions as a unit, and had a total of 8 special teams/defensive touchdowns?
If that's not a top 10 defense, whatever stat you're looking at is lying to you. They were already blowing teams out that year, so 2nd half stats were crazy. The Pats offense in the first half of games scored 24 touchdowns by itself (not including defense/special teams). Their defense gave up 13 touchdowns in the first half that year. When you outscore your opponents 255-130 by halftime, chances are you're going to give up yards and chunk plays in the 2nd half.
In the 4th game of the year, the Pats were down 7-6 at halftime. They outscored Miami 35-7 in the 2nd half. In the next game against Baltimore, they were down 10-7 at halftime, defense stiffened and they won the 2nd half 13-3. Against the Vikings, it was a tie game at 7-7 at the half, the D gave up 11 points in the 2nd half en route to a 28-18 win. Against the Lions, the Pats were down 17-10 at halftime, they outscored the Lions 35-7 in the 2nd half. Against the Packers, they were down 17-14 at the half, and gave up 10 points in the 2nd half to come away with a 31-28 win.
Except for the Cleveland game, which was a shitshow on both sides of the ball, the defense stepped up all season long when they needed to do so.
In my conversations with Matthew Slater for my book, he laments that 2010 team above all. He thinks that was probably the best overall Patriots team he's ever been part of. And to him the loss to the Jets was inexplicable and just...the worst ever. (of course, he wasn't yet on the team in 2007)
Algie Crumpler's fault. Dropped an easy pass that would have gone for a TD early.
I'm still angry over that game. That team was a machine.
On the Athletic NFL podcast, Thursday’s episodes focus on QBs and former NFL QB Chase Daniel is the guest. He analyzed the Panthers’ offense this week (and Bryce Young’s struggles), but he may as well have been discussing the Pats. Poor O line play, plus a lack of downfield threats, allows defenses to leave another player or two in the box (making it harder to run), and defenses don’t fear getting beat deep so they play press, making it harder for guys to get open. Huge ripple effect. When asked what the biggest difference maker for an offense is, Daniel said “speed, nothing else”. It’s really hard for a QB to be successful without any threat of downfield plays, defenses are just too good if they don’t have to worry about the threat of a big play.
Not sure if it was here or another thread, but someone pointed out Tua gets the ball out it 1.9 seconds, the fastest in the league. Yet the dolphins are lapping the field in chunk pass plays, 25 % of their pass plays go for 16 yards or more. Those are not deep passes-it’s Tua getting the ball out quickly to a receiver on the move who can gain yards. The Pats completely lack that element.
Not sure if it was here or another thread, but someone pointed out Tua gets the ball out it 1.9 seconds, the fastest in the league. Yet the dolphins are lapping the field in chunk pass plays, 25 % of their pass plays go for 16 yards or more. Those are not deep passes-it’s Tua getting the ball out quickly to a receiver on the move who can gain yards. The Pats completely lack that element.
Speed:
Marcus Jones: 4.44
Tyquan Thornton: 4.28
DeVante Parker: 4.45
Meanwhile:
AJ Brown: 4.49
DeVonta Smith: 4.54
They don't seem to have any problem getting open in Philly though.
Marcus Jones: 4.44
Tyquan Thornton: 4.28
DeVante Parker: 4.45
Meanwhile:
AJ Brown: 4.49
DeVonta Smith: 4.54
They don't seem to have any problem getting open in Philly though.
So here's the top 5 QB right now projected in the 2024 NFL draft class:
Caleb Williams, USC
Drake Maye, UNC
Shedeur Sanders, Colorado
Michael Penix, Washington
Cameron Ward, Washington St
Let's say the Pats can't get it going, even if Mac has pretty decent numbers. Say they're sitting there at #6 in the draft and two of those QBs are available, but also...so is Marvin Harrison Jr.
Who would you all prefer at that spot in that situation? Would it be better to keep Mac and add an elite WR talent like Harrison? Or would you take a chance and add one of the elite QBs (all of whom are projected to go in the first round)?
Caleb Williams, USC
Drake Maye, UNC
Shedeur Sanders, Colorado
Michael Penix, Washington
Cameron Ward, Washington St
Let's say the Pats can't get it going, even if Mac has pretty decent numbers. Say they're sitting there at #6 in the draft and two of those QBs are available, but also...so is Marvin Harrison Jr.
Who would you all prefer at that spot in that situation? Would it be better to keep Mac and add an elite WR talent like Harrison? Or would you take a chance and add one of the elite QBs (all of whom are projected to go in the first round)?
Marcus Jones doesn't play offense.
Tyquan Thornton isn't playing at all.
DaVante Parker ran that time at the combine like 8 years ago. He ain't close to that right now.
I know. But even at his best, Parker wasn't the kind of guy you thought got open like Brown or Smith or guys like that. He was always seen more of a "high point, contested catch" kind of guy.
And my point about the other two is that the Pats have at least tried to address overall team speed - including on offense. I didn't mention Pierre Strong (4.37) who was the fastest RB in the class that year. Obviously he's not a WR and he's not even on the team anymore but they're TRYING to get more athletic, and faster, all over the field.
Jones wasn't drafted to be a WR but they did at least try to incorporate him in some ways to ignite the offense.
Outside of the weird Packers game, that team was destroying teams down the stretch.
45-24
45-3
36-7
31-27
34-3
38-7
They would have handled the Steelers and it would have been a great SB with Rodgers vs Brady.
Outside of 2007, I was never as unprepared to handle a Pats playoff loss as I was in 2010. And then they go out and start the AFCCG streak the following season.
Clearly a digression from the Mac Jones discussion, but the 2010 defense was a bit hard to figure, IMO.
First, the team's defense was not very good in either 2009 or 2011; the latter team went to the Super Bowl solely on the back of the offense and some ball luck in the AFCCG. The problems with the 2009 team were well documented in A Football Life and elsewhere.
The D had some games where it struggled to get off the field on 3rd down or gave up points late to make things close. And the Pats benefited from a huge number of turnovers. Only one game did their opponent not turn over the ball once (a loss to the Jets in Game 2), and the D collected 2 or more turnovers in 12 of their 16 games (turnover here is interception or fumble; not counting turnover on downs, missed or blocked FG, or blocked punt). The defense forced 64 punts that season. Now that number was depressed a bit by the number of opponent drives that ended in turnovers, but teams averaged 77.1 punts that same season (Patriots punted 58 times, 3rd fewest in the league after the Saints and Jaguars). Patriots defense gave up 3rd most first downs, and were 3rd worst in yards per drive. The pass rush was a concern most of the season; they were middle of the pack in sacks, but near the bottom quarter in QB hits and tackles for loss. The team leader in sacks was Mike Wright with 5.5, and he suffered essentially a career ending concussion late that season. Rush defense was league average.
The big question was whether the defense could win a game in which the opponent did not turn the ball over. Against the Jets, the Pats defense gave up two easy scores in the 2nd half that contributed mightily to the loss, and did not get a turnover. And situational defense does matter, a lot. So, it wasn't a terrible defense (2009 was), but it wasn't necessarily one that was going to win games without help from the offense and/or turnovers.
First, the team's defense was not very good in either 2009 or 2011; the latter team went to the Super Bowl solely on the back of the offense and some ball luck in the AFCCG. The problems with the 2009 team were well documented in A Football Life and elsewhere.
The D had some games where it struggled to get off the field on 3rd down or gave up points late to make things close. And the Pats benefited from a huge number of turnovers. Only one game did their opponent not turn over the ball once (a loss to the Jets in Game 2), and the D collected 2 or more turnovers in 12 of their 16 games (turnover here is interception or fumble; not counting turnover on downs, missed or blocked FG, or blocked punt). The defense forced 64 punts that season. Now that number was depressed a bit by the number of opponent drives that ended in turnovers, but teams averaged 77.1 punts that same season (Patriots punted 58 times, 3rd fewest in the league after the Saints and Jaguars). Patriots defense gave up 3rd most first downs, and were 3rd worst in yards per drive. The pass rush was a concern most of the season; they were middle of the pack in sacks, but near the bottom quarter in QB hits and tackles for loss. The team leader in sacks was Mike Wright with 5.5, and he suffered essentially a career ending concussion late that season. Rush defense was league average.
The big question was whether the defense could win a game in which the opponent did not turn the ball over. Against the Jets, the Pats defense gave up two easy scores in the 2nd half that contributed mightily to the loss, and did not get a turnover. And situational defense does matter, a lot. So, it wasn't a terrible defense (2009 was), but it wasn't necessarily one that was going to win games without help from the offense and/or turnovers.
As an aside, looking at those rankings for the years after 2003, with the obvious correlation <> causation, but my first thought was that that Rodney Harrison guy was pretty good.
Right now I think I'd take Harrison, but that's based on two pretty good games from Mac. Mac with good weapons can get you in the playoffs. But it's a hard choice. Is Mac with good weapons enough to beat Mahomes/Burrows/Allen? That still seems like a long shot.
Agree with this. That said, unless Williams/Maye are there (which would be just as shocking as Harrison being available at 6), I'd probably still go elsewhere. I just dont think theres enough certainty on any of the other guys/distinctions between #3 and #10 QB on that list to pick a guy in the top 10 or even 20.
No way I'd take Penix in the top 10 for example. He's a likely day 2 grade who maybe gets picked in the late first. Maybe Shedeur blows up and becomes a top half of the first round guy, but I think its more likely that flaws start to get exposed and he takes a massive NIL deal to stay another year and continue to improve.
OK, so you're at 2 and it's between Maye or Harrison? I think the hypo basically stands. It's really do you start over (keeping BBs timeline in mind too) with a non-Williams QB or give Mac a better cast.
I pointed out Tua’s time here and in the goats thread mentioned basically exactly what they said about scheme limitations when you are that slow. Not to toot my own horn or anything, I don’t make Chase Daniels money but I can occasionally get shit diagnosed right
I do expect the offense to look a lot better once the OL is functional. I still think they can, if 90% of things break right compete for a WC spot and in the right conditions even win a game in the playoffs. It will take a lot for that to happen but I did have them going 0-4 and finishing the year at 9-8.
I can’t wait for when Mac has more time. And honestly I can’t wait for him to have better weapons. That Bourne play makes me so mad. Well multiple Bourne and Parker plays.
The throw to Parker wasn’t a bad decision. It wasn’t a good throw but I am not sure how far from his spot people realize he was. That route is supposed to be run, depending on their playbook, 2-4 yards from the sideline. I wish my buddy posted this clip comparing Aiyuk running that same route against Pittsburgh. It shows you how poorly Parker’s rep was. That’s the kind of route when I’m scouting college players that, if repeated, makes me wonder if they can play outside or not… like at all. Granted it was Howard but it would be nice if our #1 merely lost the rep and didn’t get worked so thoroughly it resulted in an int.
And as for Mac’s rookie deal? Yeah they botched it. They made bets on Agholor and Jonnu that unfortunately hurt them.
They can still have a window to succeed if they backload deals. If they don’t sign, trade for, or draft a stud pass catcher though after this season I might have to revive the has BB lost his fastball. (Not because of his defensive coaching or STs works either - his approach to offense).
I can’t wait for when Mac has more time. And honestly I can’t wait for him to have better weapons. That Bourne play makes me so mad. Well multiple Bourne and Parker plays.
The throw to Parker wasn’t a bad decision. It wasn’t a good throw but I am not sure how far from his spot people realize he was. That route is supposed to be run, depending on their playbook, 2-4 yards from the sideline. I wish my buddy posted this clip comparing Aiyuk running that same route against Pittsburgh. It shows you how poorly Parker’s rep was. That’s the kind of route when I’m scouting college players that, if repeated, makes me wonder if they can play outside or not… like at all. Granted it was Howard but it would be nice if our #1 merely lost the rep and didn’t get worked so thoroughly it resulted in an int.
And as for Mac’s rookie deal? Yeah they botched it. They made bets on Agholor and Jonnu that unfortunately hurt them.
They can still have a window to succeed if they backload deals. If they don’t sign, trade for, or draft a stud pass catcher though after this season I might have to revive the has BB lost his fastball. (Not because of his defensive coaching or STs works either - his approach to offense).
Hopefully Thornton comes back and is that guy, but even as poorly as it worked out overall, multiple times this year they have run stuff with Bourne deep where my first thought is.... "2021 Agholor would have been wide open on that" The first year with McDaniel he was pretty decent, and at times Mac's rookie mistakes cost them long TDs (he was still Agholor though with his share of drops/bad routes)
Well, we'll see. The positives we've seen from Mac this year are:
- Pats have an excellent red zone TD rate, mostly due to Mac's passing
- He's been effective under pressure - a big change from last year when he struggled
- He's been able to get outside the pocket and make plays when necessary
I think I saw they've also had 6 drives get inside the 30 but result in no points. So, it's a bit of a mixed bag on the red zone.
I think it should be emphasized that @Deathofthebambino isn’t saying that Mac Jones is a great quarterback or even a good one, he’s saying that he doesn’t know. And he’s saying that he thinks it can’t be known based on other factors.
Like, lots of stuff in this sick sad world only work in constellations of factors. Like limiting reagents in chemistry; you only get as much reaction as the least amount of an ingredient—if you need four chemicals for a reaction and you only have three, you don’t get 75% of the intended outcome, you get none, or possibly something different altogether. Or with a car engine; you can have every part be in pristine working condition, but if one doesn’t work; the engine doesn’t work at all. There are lots of examples.
@Deathofthebambino has, imo anyway, offered some really interesting stuff on how, say, one clutch receiver, a decent one, and two meh guys might be substantially better than four pretty good ones, simply because of how the game works. And I find the data he’s offered pretty compelling. And I just spent some time looking over the Brady years, and while he didn’t always have what are thought of as elite deep threats or anything, he often had That Guy.
And that doesn’t even get into offensive line and coaching. There have been plays in the last two games that you could show to someone who knew nothing about football and they’d be like, “Yeah, that seems bad.” And my enduring memory from last year is watching two Patriots receivers run into each other—how does that even happen at this level?
So, yeah: I’m pretty much in the camp of I Don’t Know, but very specifically because I don’t we’ve seen a situation where even can know.
Like, lots of stuff in this sick sad world only work in constellations of factors. Like limiting reagents in chemistry; you only get as much reaction as the least amount of an ingredient—if you need four chemicals for a reaction and you only have three, you don’t get 75% of the intended outcome, you get none, or possibly something different altogether. Or with a car engine; you can have every part be in pristine working condition, but if one doesn’t work; the engine doesn’t work at all. There are lots of examples.
@Deathofthebambino has, imo anyway, offered some really interesting stuff on how, say, one clutch receiver, a decent one, and two meh guys might be substantially better than four pretty good ones, simply because of how the game works. And I find the data he’s offered pretty compelling. And I just spent some time looking over the Brady years, and while he didn’t always have what are thought of as elite deep threats or anything, he often had That Guy.
And that doesn’t even get into offensive line and coaching. There have been plays in the last two games that you could show to someone who knew nothing about football and they’d be like, “Yeah, that seems bad.” And my enduring memory from last year is watching two Patriots receivers run into each other—how does that even happen at this level?
So, yeah: I’m pretty much in the camp of I Don’t Know, but very specifically because I don’t we’ve seen a situation where even can know.
I fail to see how coaching has been a problem this season; the team's struggles seem almost entirely on the players. Coaching cannot do much of anything if the OL is as inept was it was last Sunday.
Bingo. You crystallized my thoughts on the matter and articulated them better than I ever could.
Have there been complaints about this season’s coaching? I just read the last few pages of the thread and don’t recall any, but would be interested to go check it out
If they decide after this season that Mac is the guy going forward, but don't think the team around him is quite ready for Super Bowl contention, they could frontload a Mac extension. Take a big cap hit in 2024 where they have very little money on the books right now, then have Mac at discount cap hits from 2025 and on.
Could be a reasonable option. Try to get another good draft in, build the team foundation up some more before trying to add that one big piece at receiver.
Rev, you're 100% correct on everything here. It's just disappointing it's necessary to have to start a post with "I think it should be emphasized that" when DotB has gone so far out of his way to make that very point. It's like people have stopped actually reading (and thinking about) what people post.
my knowledge of the NFL cap dates to about 2017, my understanding then was you can't structure a deal in such a way that the cap hit ever decreases, it's either flat or back loaded. I guess you can get around that with performance bonuses though? or how does it work now?
Given the rollover rules, unless you are worried about reaching the 4 year floor there is basically no incentive to frontload, and a lot to backload given the lack of guarantees in most deals.
I come down largely on the other side of this ... we all watched the 2009 Patriots, right? I see a recurring pattern where teams with a top receiver struggle to find production out of their other guys, in part because rostering a top receiver eventually becomes expensive.
That said, the Patriots receivers aren't good enough and they need to invest more there. Hopefully one or two of the young guys hit. The bigger problem right now is the O line can't block. This is going to be a tough week to right that ship.
I don’t understand; didn’t Moss and Welker both have pretty good seasons that year? Welker with 1,348 yards on 23 targets and a 75.9% catch rate with Moss at 83/2,264 and 60.6% with a few other sprinkled in?
Are those not good, or am I mistaking your meaning?
I agree on roster construction though, obviously. Seeing as you literally wrote the book on it, do you think some of these positions are getting over paid from a W/L perspective? Like, someone posted the other day that outside of Brady, Mahomes was the only QB to win the Super Bowl who wasn’t still on a rookie contract (although maybe a larger sample like conference championship games might present a different picture). On paper, if paying that money for one position hinders a team’s ability to win, seems like that’s an overpay compared to value by definition—unless, of course, teams have non-W/L considerations, like maybe there’s monetary value in having a face for the franchise. So in this sense, do you think that QBs and/or WRs are overpaid? Because a “yes” to either one should obviously affect the decision of whether or not to resign Mac Jones.
Back to the @Deathofthebambino Theorem, I’m sure that there are examples of the star receiver not juicing the numbers of the new #2. If we wanted to do science to the issue, seems like the key would be to try to identify other causal factors as to why it does sometimes and not others, or what makes it more likely to work. That could be a pretty fun project in fact for the right kind if geek.
Remember football life? BB more or less quoted saying if you take away Moss deep and flood middle they had no other options. Then Welked got hurt and it they had nothing.
Speaking of, the year Belichick arrived and before Tom Brady was the starter, Troy Brown’s production doubled at frickin’ age 30. At the same time, Terry Glenn’s targets go way up but his success and catch rates tumble and as Bledsoe’s passing yards crumble of a similar percentage. Really curious what that’s all about; who’s receiving numbers double at age 30?
Heh. Guess I shouldn’t specified: Without changing QBs / teams, eh? And those weren’t career numbers, whereas Brown suddenly looks like a different player:
I want to say that @Deathofthebambino and @Reverend have raised some interesting discussion points here. First, I do subscribe to Death's Theorem that a true #1 WR is essential in today's NFL. Hardly sufficient by itself, as the OL performance on Sunday would have made the presence of such a player totally moot; but definitely necessary.
Sure, placing prime Welker and Moss on the current team would make a huge difference, but I do agree the cost of adding such talent is a factor as well. I'm fairly certain Welker/Moss and Brady made up a substantial fraction of the team's cap space. But that team was also the output from a couple of consecutive unproductive drafts.
There were some in the Miami goat thread, and a general meme on talk radio how the offense is performing worse this season. Again, some people seem to hate context for some reason. Hard to much of anything when the defense is in the backfield the instant the ball is snapped and the running game is non-existent. Again, I think it's impossible to overstate how badly the OL performed against the Dolphins.
I don't recall exactly where the 2009 team stood with regards to salary cap. But in addition to an overall lack of depth at WR, the defense was a wreck. Belichick lured Junior Seau out of retirement for the 2nd year in a row, made a trade to bring in the washed Derrick Burgess, and battled with Adalius Thomas who had become both old and slow. Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden and Jonathan Wilhite were the starters in the defensive backfield. They benefited from a fairly soft schedule but got badly exposed in the playoffs. The famous Belichick quote above was in reaction to the loss at Denver, IIRC, in which Moss caught 1 pass for 36 yards and Tom Brady could not get the offense moving at all in the 2nd half. Edelman was the only receiver not named Moss or Welker to catch a pass. Welker missed 2 games early that season: one against the Jets in which Moss was held to 24 yards by Revis (no TD's for the Pats all game), and another against the Falcons in which Fred Taylor saved the day(!).
Sure, placing prime Welker and Moss on the current team would make a huge difference, but I do agree the cost of adding such talent is a factor as well. I'm fairly certain Welker/Moss and Brady made up a substantial fraction of the team's cap space. But that team was also the output from a couple of consecutive unproductive drafts.
No, Welker and Moss were great. But that was all they had.
I think the top quarterbacks have historically been underpaid, honestly. That stat isn't right anyway - Stafford wasn't on a rookie deal two years ago, Manning wasn't in Denver, Brees wasn't in NO. And now Mahomes isn't and Brady wasn't a bunch of times. Paying big money to a great quarterback isn't an impediment to winning. Paying big money to an OK quarterback - that's a different story.
Yeah. Arizona has the Houston's pick and are widely assumed to take a QB with their pick and the most elite weapon available with the HOU pick.
Harrison seems to pick up minor injuries each week. Hopefully he can make it through the season.
This 1,000,000,000 x. You're doing the Lord's work here, @Deathofthebambino. To paraphrase Jack Cates in 48 Hours, "Some of us Pats fans are behind you (and @SMU_Sox) all the way, officer."
I think the incentive would be, the Patriots spend to the cap every year. They don't rollover tons of cap space each year.
So if you did a standard contract with Mac, they will use up that extra cap space in 2024 on veteran guys that can help immediately.
But if you frontload it, they wouldn't have the cap space to sign those veteran guys, leaving you extra space in 2025 and beyond.
Instead of giving Mac Jones a big signing bonus with a new contract that is amortized equally over the years of the deal, you give him a big roster bonus in 2024 which all counts on the 2024 cap.
The 49ers did this with Garoppolo in his 2018 contract
I thought he looked pretty good today, given the weather conditions, opposing defense, and personnel; when the all-22 comes out I'd love to hear which plays you thought he should have made better decisions/throws on.