If that's the case then playing it safe almost cost them the game when they could have easily put it away with all the short field positions they were given.
The blame for the offense should not solely fall on Mac. The offensive line was absolutely putrid yesterday and gave him next to no time to throw. They had to go to their quick hitters because there was no time for stuff to develop down the field.
It's not like the line was opening up holes for RB's all day and Mac was standing around for 5 seconds on every drop back. Stevenson broke the long carry for 35 yards but other than that he and Harris gained 73 yards on 26 carries. It wasn't a good day for them either.
In year 1, he looked like he could be Andy Dalton. In year 2, he looks like he’s Sam Darnold. I have advocated for giving him as much time/development as possible, and I think that’s through 2023. But he’s got to show some signs of improvement. Pocket presence, good decisions, chemistry with his receivers…none of which are happening now.
He played three games, got hurt, played 3 series in one game (poorly), and then played a fifth game. I think we could wait until maybe a fifth or sixth game in his second season before deciding that there's no hope.
I agree there isn't a no hope situation here, but people are treating it like he was a shining star down the stretch last year, which he definitely wasn't there was some tough tailoff, that got written off as tougher defenses, rookie wall, etc.
| CMP | ATT | CMP% | Yards | TD | INT | RATE | Sack | ANY/A |
| 245 | 349 | 70.2 | 2540 | 14 | 8 | 94.73 | 22 | 6.63 |
| CMP | ATT | CMP% | Yards | TD | INT | RATE | Sack | ANY/A |
| 222 | 348 | 63.8 | 2486 | 13 | 14 | 80.7 | 20 | 5.75 |
It's also possible that it's a young QB trying to address the criticism from last year that he settled too often for easy, short throws when bigger plays were available to him. JT O'Sullivan from the QB School took Mac to task for that on several occasions.
I kind of did.
Not from the footage I've seen.
This is ridiculous -- Zappe with the same coaches and less experience has had a 7.20 ANY/A across 92 attempts and 4 games, with two games against bottom tier defenses (1st is Lions at 8.3, while the Browns are tied at 7th at 7.0). Mac has 4.47 ANY/A with 138 attempts across 5 games, with two mediocre games against two bottom tier pass defenses (Miami's 4th worst by ANY/A at 7.2, Pittsburgh is 7th at 7.0).
I agree 100%. While Zappe might have faced much easier competition than Mac this season, it's striking to compare the two on an apples-to-apples basis, small sample notwithstanding. Zappe may not be the ultimate answer either, but the production gap between the two is striking.
Why would I pause for even a second to consider an "apples to apples" comparison focussed on a small sample and using one stat reflective not of individual play but of team performance as a whole?
QB's are ultimately judged on their ability to operate an offense and put up points. Efficiency (points per drive) correlates pretty well to quality of QB play. The most highly-regarded QB's all produce strong efficiency numbers (Mahomes is the best at 3.0+ and other top QB's are in the high 2's to low 3's). Any way you slice it, Mac's 2022 numbers over 5 games are atrocious. His full 2021-2022 numbers over 23 games are mediocre. It's also worth noting that all individual QB stats are dependent on team performance (pass blocking, receiver wingspan/speed/separation, field position, etc.).
The Patriots OL was an absolute disaster against the Jets, far worse than any prior performance this season. What have you seen from Zappe that says he could perform under a level of pressure that even Tom Brady would have struggled against?
Are they?
The Pats last year were a weird case because the offense was mediocre most weeks but had a handful of distorting, outlier, extreme positive performances (second Jets, Cleveland, Jacksonville). They scored 45+ three times yet only scored in the 30's once. I think Mac's reputation, and the true performance of the offense, is closer to the week-to-week standard that they generally met.
Those numbers match about what I would expect without looking them up, a pretty clear step down in the quality of play. I think we would all feel a lot better if the samples were reversed and the first half of his career was the more recent half.
Basically agree.
I would say that guys can show you more later than the end of year 2, but usually those are guys who show significant improvement year 1 to year 2.
That's quite the hyperbolic statement. Tom Brady would have struggled against that level of pressure? Really? Was Mac constantly getting pressured up the middle in that game? Is Brady known for holding on to the ball too long while being antsy in the pocket?
What does this even mean? If he's better than Zappe he should be the starter this season. If he doesn't start playing better than absolutely the team should start looking into making a change for 2023 if someone potentially better is available. Am I missing something?
I think Super Nomario addressed your points better than I could. I can't speak to the DVOA and OSRS stats and how they are calculated. Last season, Mac's offense put up 2.66 points per drive, which is pretty good, and outstanding for a rookie QB. I'd guess that, in the modern NFL, 2.66 points per drive is probably just inside or just outside of the top 10. But, as Super Nomario pointed out, those numbers were goosed by the 2nd Jets, Browns and Jaguars games. The Mac-led offense's median points per drive last season was 2.1, which I suspect was not in the top third of the league.
Ever heard the expression "best athlete in the band" or "best-looking Hell's Angel"? Beating out the unheralded rookie is a pretty low bar to clear.
I get it, but do we make the same analysis of every other team's offensive output, or do we just tend to look at the overall numbers? I've never seen this kind of breakdown (how many "huge" games other teams/QBs have that make it look like they're better than they are) done for other teams, and it makes sense why - we follow the Patriots and analyze them ad nauseam.
It's a matter of degree. Mac had 3 games last year with a points per drive number above 5. Burrow had just 1. But Mac also had 8 games with a points per drive number of 2.0 or below. Burrow had 5. Mac's median points per drive in the regular season was 2.2. Burrow's was 2.61. I think we could see how the median number would be more meaningful or insightful.
I'm not sure who you're fighting with or who you think is being so protective of Mac that you need to take a bit of a shot at them but I think literally every single poster thinks Mac has been at least kind of shitty this year.
The Should Have Been Pick 6 makes these takes hard agree with these takes. I don't care if it was a wrong route by the WR, you have to actually be able to see there's nobody wearing white in the area before you release the ball. He was starting right at the play in front of him. That one pick six decision more than offsets whatever good you can find. You CANNOT have a QB making those decisions every single game, particularly those games when the opposing QB is Zach Wilson. Protect the ball.
I've stayed out of this mostly because I'm confident that I don't know shit. But I do know from watching the television that many pass patterns call for the throw to be made *before* the WR makes his cut. Many a great QB has thrown an out route directly to the opposing CB because the receiver cut inside not outside. Was this one of those? I don't know. But I'm pretty confident that "the QB has to see no opponents in the area before he releases the ball" is not an accurate description of high-level NFL QB play.
Yes, but we have tape on it... Meyers had already made the decision on the option route before Mac threw it. Also, it was a terrible read of the coverage if he thought the WR was going to break INTO the defender.
I thought I had read somewhere that there was some sort of miscommunication on the play. Maybe it was a different one. I think my other point about "not throwing until . . . ." stands, though.
Yeah, there was... in the sense that Mac for some reason made a bad decision, locked into it... AND threw late. It was a really really bad play. The later point I was agreeing with, it just wasn't really applicable in this situation.
Yes, obviously on your first sentence.
Evan Lazar talks about one of Mac's weaknesses in the new scheme is he's not consistently throwing the ball before the target makes the cut.
I think it's cover three the outside corner is going back and the WR should break out; Mac thought he was faking in and cutting out, Jacoby just sat, and Jones was kind of eighty percent done with his throw at that point and lofted a shitty one. I think it would have been ok if Jacoby had made a good hard cut outside.
My guess is Mac was wrong. I plead ignorance on the X's and O's but it looked to me like Meyers ran the route to open space while Mac threw it towards 3 Jets. Even if Meyers broke outside it's a bad throw and bad read by both players.
The defender was below Meyers though. If he cuts out, the defender is still between Mac and Meyers. There's just no way at the point of the throw that throwing it to that spot would result in a pass the defender couldn't make a play on.
I looked through every team in 2021 and the Patriots had by far the most extreme split between their top three games and the bulk of their schedules.
Because all these teams were putting up points much more consistently than NE. The Bengals were probably closest, but their high games (barely into the 40s) weren't as high and they had four games in the 30s. The Chiefs had a 48 and THREE 42s and a 41 and six more in the 30s ... obviously they were performing at a much more consistent level on offense than the Patriots. Dallas had the two 50s but also three 40s and three 30s. Tampa had those three 40s but they scored 30+ in more than half their games (11). Buffalo had a 47 in the playoffs, and seven games in the 30s. Obviously these 40-burgers are a lot more representative of what they were giving week to week.
PFF sorta tries to do some of what you describe. Mac currently ranks 37th of 38 quarterbacks according to their metrics.
