The Killer B's in 2018: What's in the Box?

Savin Hillbilly

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In all the discussions of FA and trade acquisitions, the question of what to expect from our young core has been mostly tabled, and yet it's arguably the collective performance of Betts, Benintendi, Bogaerts, and Bradley, more than that of any acquisition, that will determine our offensive fate in 2018. Each of them has had at least one season (in Benintendi's case, a 118-PA mini-season) with a wRC+ of 115 or better. None of them touched 110 last year, and Bogaerts and Bradley were below-average hitters for the first time since 2014. Will they bounce back? How far?

Here are their Steamer projections (slash line followed by HR and wRC+):

Benintendi: .286/.360/.468, 20, 116
Bradley: .259/.339/.444, 21, 104
Betts: .299/.371/.519, 27, 132
Bogaerts: .288/.353/.444, 16, 109

How do these look to people? Overoptimistic? Not optimistic enough? And if this is what we'll be getting from these guys, what does that imply concerning the need for another bat?
 

grimshaw

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Beni - realistic IMO because it's on a slow improvement curve. He's still only 23. He could beat that and no one would be surprised.

Bradley - The least projectable hitter on the team, and maybe in all of baseball. That's why I think he's the likeliest to go. They can expect improvement from a few, but who knows with him?

Betts - Mookie has had some issues with pop ups the last few years increasing from 23, to 29, and 35.
I think that is a swing flaw that's going to help determine whether he can get fully straightened out. Granted a 6 pop up difference between an MVP caliber season and a good season probably wasn't the biggest issue, but I do think he went for the downs more often and it backfired. Maybe a new hitting coach can help him.

Bogaerts -We have seen above average, even all-star Bogaerts more often when he isn't fatigued as has happened his first few years, or banged up like this year. I hope he can find a way to condition himself so he stays more fresh but I'm most bullish on him.

They still look like a team that needs to string hits together and have excellent base-running, so the big bat is still needed in my mind. Run prevention can only make up so much of the difference. Especially with Devers with his growing pains at 3b, a likely diminished range Pedey, and possibly worse bullpen working against them.
 
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The Gray Eagle

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Before the 2016 season, Speier wrote an article about Bogaerts and Betts and how a lot of similar young players had a fall-off in their age 23 seasons. But Mookie actually got 3.5 WAR better in 2016, while Xander did drop, but by less than 1 win.
The season where they both had a big dropoff came in 2017, when Mookie dropped by 3.1 WAR and X dropped by 1.5.

2017 was a bump in the road on their development, but development is very rarely linear, as Hazen said in that article:

"General manager Mike Hazen, while praising his young players, offered a measure of caution.

“Look, there’s nothing that says these guys are going to continue on a linear path upward,” said Hazen. “It doesn’t work that way.”
Indeed, history suggests that even for elite young players, the arrow doesn’t always point up. Bogaerts and Betts became the 74th and 75th middle-of-the-field players ever to post a WAR of 3.0 or better in their age 22 season.

Of the previous 73 (a group that included 26 Hall of Famers), decline at age 23 proved a common occurrence.

While 27 of the 73 players (37 percent) maintained their level or improved, 46 (63 percent) suffered some decline at age 23, with half of those players enduring declines of 2.1 wins or more. On average, the group of players who were worth three or more wins at age 22 saw their value drop by 20 percent (and 1.0 wins) at age 23.

The reasons are numerous: Injuries, a normal dropoff in production, and position changes away from the middle of the field (as with Betts moving from center to right) can all diminish player value.

Regardless of the cause, the idea that players might be less valuable at age 23 than they were in standout age 22 seasons can’t be ignored. After all, 10 of the 26 future Hall of Famers on the list – players like Joe DiMaggio, Bobby Doerr, Paul Molitor, Robin Yount, and Tris Speaker) endured a decline in value at age 23 of a full win or more.

Yet even with a 20 percent decline in value, both Betts and Bogaerts would remain standout players. Last year, there were five shortstops besides Bogaerts to post a WAR of 3.5 or better in the majors. If Betts’ value falls 20 percent to a 4.8 WAR in 2016, that would still put him in the company of the top 33 position players in the majors last year, just below the likes of Andrew McCutchen.

In short, Bogaerts and Betts represent building blocks precisely because they stand a strong likelihood of being elite players even if they are not as valuable as they were a year ago."

So these guys having a dropoff for one year while they were younger than 25 to me doesn't seem like something permanent at all, just something that often happens with young players. These guys happened to have their drop-off seasons at age 24, rather than age 23. I personally expect them both to bounce back in 2018, depending on health as always.

Seems like a lot of people have decided that X is always going to be the same level he was in 2017. Personally, I am hoping he doesn't get hit in the wrist with a pitch again (he got hit in the wrist April 2016 as well as last season) and hoping that being another year older and working with a new hitting coach might get him driving the ball a lot more than he has in the past 2 seasons.

Their Steamer projections seem perfectly reasonable to me, and I think they'll both be around those numbers if they stay healthy.
 

BaseballJones

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I wonder how much has to do with the Sox' approach the past year or so, and the launch angle revolution.

http://www.espn.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/53826/j-d-martinez-or-no-j-d-martinez-red-sox-have-a-plan-to-relaunch-their-offense

Sounds like they are adopting a much different approach this coming season. I am very, very interested to see how this impacts Red Sox' hitters . I mean, we all saw Bogaerts hitting down on the ball, like he was playing back in 1980. He has plenty of power. It will be fascinating to see if he can adapt to a slight uppercut and drive the ball in the air more consistently.

I think the wild card in all this is the new team philosophy.
 

BigPapiMPD34

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I wonder how much has to do with the Sox' approach the past year or so, and the launch angle revolution.

http://www.espn.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/53826/j-d-martinez-or-no-j-d-martinez-red-sox-have-a-plan-to-relaunch-their-offense

Sounds like they are adopting a much different approach this coming season. I am very, very interested to see how this impacts Red Sox' hitters . I mean, we all saw Bogaerts hitting down on the ball, like he was playing back in 1980. He has plenty of power. It will be fascinating to see if he can adapt to a slight uppercut and drive the ball in the air more consistently.

I think the wild card in all this is the new team philosophy.
I agree, Bogaerts was constantly on top of the ball last year, which limited his production. However, I believe this was related to his wrist injury. He kept mentioning that he couldn't get under the ball and pull the ball due to his wrist pain, which led to him trying to go the other way. He hit 21 HRs in 2016, so I would honestly be disappointed if he only hits 16 HRs in 2018 at full health.
 

nvalvo

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Bogaerts' wrist injury is a good point, but Bradley played through multiple injuries, and Betts wore a knee brace much of the season. (To the best of my knowledge, Benintendi was pretty healthy.)

I think the luck we have with health is a big deal in these conversations.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I agree, Bogaerts was constantly on top of the ball last year, which limited his production. However, I believe this was related to his wrist injury. He kept mentioning that he couldn't get under the ball and pull the ball due to his wrist pain, which led to him trying to go the other way. He hit 21 HRs in 2016, so I would honestly be disappointed if he only hits 16 HRs in 2018 at full health.
I'm not sure, it seems like everyone else, if Betts is the player he was in '16 or the player he was last year. I'd bet somewhere in the middle which would still make him a middle of the order bat and great all around player. JBJ is a mystery (and like someone said upthread... the likliest to be dealt because of that) but when he's locked in he kills it. Benintendi is another keeper and I can see him as a player averaging out to what Betts was in '17.
At the end of June of last season Xander was pretty locked in... he was cranking doubles to an .815 OPS (granted, the HR's were lacking but an OPS above .800 by a SS is near impossible to replace and he looks maybe not great... but pretty damned solid at defense to me. The guy clearly hurt his wrist and this entire board turned on him fast. Finally after two months of utter horrid plate appearances he see started to look like Xander again in September (.803 OPS). So the same is with Moreland or any player..... when one of these guys gets injured and they want to play through it.... perhaps give them maybe a week to show they're fine and if they're not... then put them on the damned DL! He had a .452 OPS in July.... FOUR FIFTY TWO!!!! Wouldn't whoever the hell was playing SS at Pawtucket, whoever the hell it was last season have put up at least a .550 OPS and meanwhile X can sit and heal quickly and not get into some bad habits by altering a swing to avoid pain? I really hope Cora can get this through to DD that these guys need to sit when they're injured.
Anyhow.... X (and injuries) rant over.... this core is amongst the best in the game... has to be the best defensive outfield in the game and if they all can stay healthy these guys alone with Devers can compete with the SuperYankees as is.
 

Merkle's Boner

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They don't look to be too optimistic, but the question is how far can you go if those are your four best hitters? A .519 SLG and 27 HRs for your power hitter? Can we expect Devers to top that? Hanley?
 

BaseballJones

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They don't look to be too optimistic, but the question is how far can you go if those are your four best hitters? A .519 SLG and 27 HRs for your power hitter? Can we expect Devers to top that? Hanley?
You don't necessarily need to have one huge masher, if you've got a lineup filled with guys who all hit 20.

For example, imagine these numbers (each of which is fairly realistic, though maybe them as a collective are not)

C - Vazquez - 10
1b - Moreland - 23
2b - Pedroia/sub - 13
3b - Devers - 23
SS - Bogaerts - 22
LF - Benintendi - 26
CF - Bradley - 28
RF - Betts - 30
DH - Hanley - 25

That comes to 200 homers. Of course, that all would have to work out like that, but it's possible to have a lineup like that that still produces home runs. Add about 25 home runs from reserves, and that's about 225 homers as a team. That would put them 7th in all of MLB.

Of course, it's better to have one or two mashers in there as well, but the point is that it's totally possible to produce a lot of homers and runs as a team without having better power hitters.
 

MikeM

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The projection going in to Betts seems way too focused in on him replicating his 2016 season, otherwise I don't have an issue. Although as noted above who really knows with Bradley at this point.

I'd like to compare those to last year's Steamer projections, and which doesn't seem to be in their site archives (clicking on 2017 brings up the 2018 results). Anybody have a link to where I would find them?
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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You don't necessarily need to have one huge masher, if you've got a lineup filled with guys who all hit 20.

For example, imagine these numbers (each of which is fairly realistic, though maybe them as a collective are not)

C - Vazquez - 10
1b - Moreland - 23
2b - Pedroia/sub - 13
3b - Devers - 23
SS - Bogaerts - 22
LF - Benintendi - 26
CF - Bradley - 28
RF - Betts - 30
DH - Hanley - 25

That comes to 200 homers. Of course, that all would have to work out like that, but it's possible to have a lineup like that that still produces home runs. Add about 25 home runs from reserves, and that's about 225 homers as a team. That would put them 7th in all of MLB.

Of course, it's better to have one or two mashers in there as well, but the point is that it's totally possible to produce a lot of homers and runs as a team without having better power hitters.

Devers hit 10 HR's in 220 AB's. Project that out to a full season at around 650 and it's 30. Granted that seems optimistic to me but his composure at the plate (if the Sox somehow beat the Astros in the ALDS matchup last post season he was likely going to be the MVP) in the playoffs strikes me that I can feel comfortable being bullish on him for around 27 HR's.
I'm also bullish on Vazquez' power surge in August being something to expect going forward. His swing looked beautiful and his eye seemed to develop. I wouldn't deal Vazquez right now for almost anyone as I think we're looking at vintage era Veritek with a better defense. Optimistically I could see 20HR's coming from him and another 5-7 coming from the backup.

EDIT- Other than that all of your projections seem reasonable to me but as much as I love X and can see a big (if healthy.... duh!) positive rebound from him, I don't think he'll ever hit for more than 15 HR's on a season..... but I can still imagine an OPS above .800 from him for a high amount of doubles and triples
 

geoduck no quahog

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Interested to find if there's evidence that the wall changes stats so dramatically that it needs to be factored in to every Fenway hitting statistic. Doubles become singles, homeruns become doubles, pop outs become homeruns, soft opposite field outs become singles while shallow left fielders depress base hits. It's pretty dramatic watching every home game and seeing what that thing does to hitters.

I doubt the typical launch angle works as well in Fenway as other parks.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Yes. Yes that's correct. Ever again... yes.
Well, we can each think what we want, I guess, but why you think X's performance last year - with a bad wrist for half the season - is more indicative of his HR-ability than 2016 is bewildering and, imo, unduly pessimistic. We might want to temper expectations for the coming season a bit, and I'd agree that 22 is optimistic, but would you really bet $100 that X will never hit more than 15 HRs in a season again? I wouldn't.
 

Sampo Gida

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It really comes down to which was the outlier, 2016 or 2017. Need another data point so 2018 should decide it. A good case can be made that playing through injuries was a good part of the offensive woes in 2017, not just the Baby B's but Hanley, Pedey (powerwise) and Moreland (post June). The regressed projections simply cant account for this, if thats what it was
 

chawson

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Not trying to troll here and happy to be proven wrong over time, but does anyone else wonder whether Benintendi could have more value for another team than he would for the Sox?

Beni had pretty rough Fenway numbers last year — an 80 wRC+ — in 319 PAs. And his opposite field productivity is pretty low — 86 wRC+.

He’s young and learning, of course. But would anyone here swap him straight up for Yelich and the 5/$58MM on his contract? More expensive; same number of years of control as Beni. But possibly a much better Fenway fit.
 
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Savin Hillbilly

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Not trying to troll here and happy to be proven wrong over time, but does anyone else wonder whether Benintendi could have more value for another team than he would for the Sox?

Beni had pretty rough Fenway numbers last year — an 80 wRC+ — in 319 PAs. And his opposite field productivity is pretty low — 86 wRC+.

He’s young and learning, of course. But would anyone here swap him straight up for Yelich and the 5/$58MM on his contract? More expensive, same number of years of control as Beni. But possibly a much better Fenway fit.
Not a bad question. If he were a free agent or a trade target, probably a lot of us would be saying "pass" because of the poor Fenway fit. He has yet to hit his first opposite-field HR at Fenway, and if you look at his spray charts, we may be waiting a while for it. His opposite-field power wouldn't even be warning-track in many parks. And to the pull side, he hits a lot of balls into the RF corner, the deepest part of Fenway. He'd be a 30-HR threat in a home park with a short fence there, like Cincinnati, Cleveland, Texas, Baltimore, or...well, you know.

So I think it would make a lot of sense for DD to be exploring Beni trades. And yes, Yelich, with his oppo flyball tendencies, would make a hugely better fit in Fenway. That's an intriguing idea for a deal.

EDIT: The one fly(ball) in the ointment is that even though Yelich hits most of his fly balls to the left side, he doesn't hit many fly balls in the first place; he's an extreme ground ball hitter. He's kind of like Hosmer in that regard: he doesn't usually hit it in the air, but when he does, it goes to left.
 
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grimshaw

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Not trying to troll here and happy to be proven wrong over time, but does anyone else wonder whether Benintendi could have more value for another team than he would for the Sox?

Beni had pretty rough Fenway numbers last year — an 80 wRC+ — in 319 PAs. And his opposite field productivity is pretty low — 86 wRC+.

He’s young and learning, of course. But would anyone here swap him straight up for Yelich and the 5/$58MM on his contract? More expensive; same number of years of control as Beni. But possibly a much better Fenway fit.
At first I thought it was silly. Looking a bit more closely at how good Yelich and his contract is, I don't think it's nuts. That said - if JBJ is instead traded to make room for a masher then Beni's value goes up in center.

Oddly enough they are side by side in the trade value series.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-trade-value-21-to-30/
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
How about expanding a Beni-for-Yelich deal to include Vazquez for Realmuto? Obviously at that point you'd have to add a few prospects, at least one of which would have to be good enough to hurt. But that plus signing Martinez would give the Sox a tremendously deep lineup for the next few years. And even without signing Martinez it would be an upgrade. The more I look at Realmuto's spray charts and road numbers, the more I salivate.
 

chawson

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How about expanding a Beni-for-Yelich deal to include Vazquez for Realmuto? Obviously at that point you'd have to add a few prospects, at least one of which would have to be good enough to hurt. But that plus signing Martinez would give the Sox a tremendously deep lineup for the next few years. And even without signing Martinez it would be an upgrade. The more I look at Realmuto's spray charts and road numbers, the more I salivate.
I think it’s interesting. Same number of years of control for each pair (5 for Beni/Yelich; 3 for Vaz/J.T.). Only money’s different.
 

Rasputin

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I agree, Bogaerts was constantly on top of the ball last year, which limited his production. However, I believe this was related to his wrist injury. He kept mentioning that he couldn't get under the ball and pull the ball due to his wrist pain, which led to him trying to go the other way. He hit 21 HRs in 2016, so I would honestly be disappointed if he only hits 16 HRs in 2018 at full health.
I think Bogaerts is going to be one of the more interesting and important stories of the season. Between the wrist health and the new hitting philosophy he might tap into the power in a way he really hasn't before. Or, you know, not. And the difference is important not just for the outcome of the season but for figuring out which of these guys we keep and which we don't.
 

PapaSox

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You don't necessarily need to have one huge masher, if you've got a lineup filled with guys who all hit 20.

For example, imagine these numbers (each of which is fairly realistic, though maybe them as a collective are not)

C - Vazquez - 10
1b - Moreland - 23
2b - Pedroia/sub - 13
3b - Devers - 23
SS - Bogaerts - 22
LF - Benintendi - 26
CF - Bradley - 28
RF - Betts - 30
DH - Hanley - 25

That comes to 200 homers. Of course, that all would have to work out like that, but it's possible to have a lineup like that that still produces home runs. Add about 25 home runs from reserves, and that's about 225 homers as a team. That would put them 7th in all of MLB.

Of course, it's better to have one or two mashers in there as well, but the point is that it's totally possible to produce a lot of homers and runs as a team without having better power hitters.
I think this was sort of the plan for last season, minus Devers. If they can remain healthy it can be a pretty long, lengthy lineup with power coming from anywhere. However, as last year did not work out as planned we are now going for a big bat in the hopes that will solve the problems of last year. I wonder what happens to this plan if the big bat goes down with an injury or has a down year.
 

simplicio

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You don't necessarily need to have one huge masher, if you've got a lineup filled with guys who all hit 20.

For example, imagine these numbers (each of which is fairly realistic, though maybe them as a collective are not)

C - Vazquez - 10
1b - Moreland - 23
2b - Pedroia/sub - 13
3b - Devers - 23
SS - Bogaerts - 22
LF - Benintendi - 26
CF - Bradley - 28
RF - Betts - 30
DH - Hanley - 25

That comes to 200 homers. Of course, that all would have to work out like that, but it's possible to have a lineup like that that still produces home runs. Add about 25 home runs from reserves, and that's about 225 homers as a team. That would put them 7th in all of MLB.

Of course, it's better to have one or two mashers in there as well, but the point is that it's totally possible to produce a lot of homers and runs as a team without having better power hitters.
That lineup - the Pedey slot in particular, but also the known streakiness of Moreland, Hanley's propensity for launching mighty fouls off his own toes every two weeks, Devers' ongoing growth at third - is why I keep banging on about Todd Frazier in a utility role. What if the Nunez/Holt slot could be filled by a good defender who could also abuse the monster to the tune of 30+ hr with an obp equal to Mookie's on a reasonable deal? Wouldn't that be nearly as valuable as a straight JDM for Hanley swap?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Wait...is Frazier the 30+ HR, "good defender" guy you're suggesting for the Nunez/Holt utility role? He plays one position well enough to be called good and has only played meaningful innings at one other spot in the last five years. Not sure how he finds playing time to come close to providing 30 HR to this team without him entirely replacing Hanley, Devers, or Moreland.
 

simplicio

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He's played everything but C professionally, (as opposed to Holt, who only had experience as a middle infielder before Boston decided to play him everywhere) and it's been reported this winter that he'd be willing to move from 3b. So he starts as the everyday 2b until Pedroia's return, then works regularly around the diamond and in left as needed; late inning sub for Pedey, spelling guys when injured or ineffective, having an option if Beni continues to struggle at Fenway and Brentz is what he's always been, letting Devers DH a bit if he gets in a hole defensively, etc. We can all agree that the team would have benefited from X, Pedey, Moreland and Hanley all having more time off last year, had they had better players available to sub in for them. Pre-concussion Holt was getting 500 PA while being an average small ball hitter; last season he still had 164 while offering about half an average bat. Getting someone versatile and good with power, be it Frazier or Nunez (not sure how much I believe in his power either) or someone else, would go a really long way in pushing next year's team past what Hernandez/Lin/Holt/Marrero and the broken regulars offered this season.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Still think it's asking a lot of a 32 year old to play positions he hasn't played in years. When Holt started playing the outfield, he was 26. Or roughly how old Frazier was the last time he manned second or short (for a combined total of 11 innings) seven years ago.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Also Frazier’s and Mookie’s OBPs intersected last year but otherwise Mook’s is 30 pts higher. Pretty optimistic to expect them to be the same, or even close.
 

simplicio

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Still think it's asking a lot of a 32 year old to play positions he hasn't played in years. When Holt started playing the outfield, he was 26. Or roughly how old Frazier was the last time he manned second or short (for a combined total of 11 innings) seven years ago.
I'm not just wishcasting this on my own; he's had interest from teams as a 2b:


As many as 10 teams have engaged on Todd Frazier for 3b, 1b and most interesting, some 2b. Frazier played 2b so often in #Yankees shifts that some teams think the minor league SS can handle that.
And he's confirmed that he's open to playing anywhere:

"I'm open to anything," said Frazier, "Even second base, without a doubt. When I first came up, I was a utility guy. I'm not afraid to go back to playing another position. I'm comfortable playing any position any team wants me to play."
Also Frazier’s and Mookie’s OBPs intersected last year but otherwise Mook’s is 30 pts higher. Pretty optimistic to expect them to be the same, or even close.
Right, I wasn't trying say he's Mookie's equal, just that his new 14% walk rate goes a long way in mitigating his low average.

Edit: none of this has much to do with the B's though and should probably move to another thread, apologies for the side track.
 
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BaseballJones

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Last 3 seasons ops+:

Bradley: 119, 118, 89 (107)
Puig: 110, 98, 118 (110)

Last 3 seasons bWAR:

Bradley: 2.2, 5.3, 2.8 (10.3)
Puig: 1.1, 1.4, 3.7 (6.2)
 

burstnbloom

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I got my first look at X this year in the spring training game against the Yankees yesterday and he definitely looks different to me. He's still keeping his hands inside the ball and going the opposite way but he's creating much more torque than he was last year when he was slicing balls to right. It looks more like he's pushing off of his front foot and generating more power. One of his hits was a double off the right center field wall on a pitch away.

It's anecdotal, but certainly encouraging. A fixed Xander does a lot for the Red Sox chances this year.
 

Sampo Gida

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I agree, Bogaerts was constantly on top of the ball last year, which limited his production. However, I believe this was related to his wrist injury. He kept mentioning that he couldn't get under the ball and pull the ball due to his wrist pain, which led to him trying to go the other way. He hit 21 HRs in 2016, so I would honestly be disappointed if he only hits 16 HRs in 2018 at full health.
70% of all qualified batters hit 20+ HR in 2016. His power was lacking before the wrist injury
 

joe dokes

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70% of all qualified batters hit 20+ HR in 2016. His power was lacking before the wrist injury

In 2015, Bogaerts was 3rd among qualified AL SS in SLG%; 6th in MLB
In 2016, he was 2nd and 4th, respectively.
In 2017 he was 8th and 14th, respectively.

It's hard to doubt that hurting his wrist sapped his power in 2017. Hyers is also changing his approach. But a new approach with a bad wrist isn't going to do much.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Bogaerts was hitting .308/.363/.455 through July 6, the date of the wrist injury.
From July 8 through August 31, his line was .201/.276/.299.
From September 4 on, he hit .284/.393/.411.
So in total after the injury, he hit .232/.321/.340.

I broke down the post-injury lines as I did because Sept 1-3 he was given the weekend off to rest and essentially reset, which seemed to do him a bit of good. I don't think there can be much doubt that the injury impacted him at the plate, power and otherwise.
 

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Bogaerts was hitting .308/.363/.455 through July 6, the date of the wrist injury.
From July 8 through August 31, his line was .201/.276/.299.
From September 4 on, he hit .284/.393/.411.
So in total after the injury, he hit .232/.321/.340.

I broke down the post-injury lines as I did because Sept 1-3 he was given the weekend off to rest and essentially reset, which seemed to do him a bit of good. I don't think there can be much doubt that the injury impacted him at the plate, power and otherwise.
I’d be interested to see the numbers for the season when you combine the first block and the third block. Seems like something around .295/.375/.435. I think we would all be pretty happy with that for the year.

EDIT: to correct typos
 
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Buzzkill Pauley

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I’d be interested to see the numbers for the season when you combine the first black and the third block. Seems like something around .295/.375/.435. I think we would all be pretty happy with that for the year
So, essentially Bogaerts' 2016 line (.294/.358/.446).

Huh. It's like the injury really was a thing.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I’d be interested to see the numbers for the season when you combine the first block and the third block. Seems like something around .295/.375/.435. I think we would all be pretty happy with that for the year.

EDIT: to correct typos
Opening Day through July 6 + September 4 through end of season = .302/.356/.444
 

Saints Rest

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I also wonder if X may be the guy most likely to be helped by JDM's presence, both in the lineup and off the field. (My sense is that JDM might be able to help a guy like X unlock some power as he matures. JDM's 23 and 24 year old seasons look not too unlike X's.)
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
One other thing we know about Bogaerts: he's the new Dustin Pedroia in at least one respect. He has a ginormous home/road split for the past three years. Since April 1 2015, his Fenway slash line is .322/.376/.459. On the road, it's .270/.326/.389. That's 121 vs. 93 in wRC+.

None of the other B's have anywhere near as big a home advantage. Bradley's split for those three years is 114/104, Betts' is 127/116. Benintendi, of course, has a sizable reverse split, because Fenway is probably one of the worst parks in MLB for him: 89/120.
 
Sep 13, 2006
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Hanley predicts that 1 of the Killer Bs will be this year's MVP. Which one may surprise you.

 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Hanley predicts that 1 of the Killer Bs will be this year's MVP. Which one may surprise you.

Papi used to make these kinds of pronouncements in spring training, didn't he? I have vague memories of him being really high on young players that didn't pan out.
 

grimshaw

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Hanley predicts that 1 of the Killer Bs will be this year's MVP. Which one may surprise you.

Just to play the game - for that to happen, JBJ would either have to go down for the year or get traded - and then Beni to do a 40/20 season or something in CF with Mike Trout coming down with SARS.

I guess I wouldn't be terribly disappointed if he were merely an all-star.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Just to play the game - for that to happen, JBJ would either have to go down for the year or get traded - and then Beni to do a 40/20 season or something in CF with Mike Trout coming down with SARS.

I guess I wouldn't be terribly disappointed if he were merely an all-star.
With the point about Trout being a given, why do you think the bold would have to be true? Benintendi is going to be the full time starter in LF all year whether JBJ is there or not. I know they plan to get JDM some time at the corners, but it's not going to be that much, and when they do it's not like Benintendi or JBJ can't DH anyway.
 

Spelunker

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With the point about Trout being a given, why do you think the bold would have to be true? Benintendi is going to be the full time starter in LF all year whether JBJ is there or not. I know they plan to get JDM some time at the corners, but it's not going to be that much, and when they do it's not like Benintendi or JBJ can't DH anyway.
I'm guessing because CF defense is valued higher than LF, and Beni's numbers would only get MVP consideration with the CF pedigree.
 

grimshaw

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With the point about Trout being a given, why do you think the bold would have to be true? Benintendi is going to be the full time starter in LF all year whether JBJ is there or not. I know they plan to get JDM some time at the corners, but it's not going to be that much, and when they do it's not like Benintendi or JBJ can't DH anyway.
Just because of the added defensive value from moving over to center.

Blackmon was a 6.5 fWAR guy playing center last year and Ozuna with basically the same offense was worth closer to 5.

I wasn't really treating this scientifically though.
 
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