I don't think he will win MVP with Trout healthy, but would you be shocked if he hit .300+ and had 30 HR's with 20+ SB?
No - but I don't think he'll outplay Altuve, Judge, Stanton, Springer, Betts, Lindor etc.I don't think he will win MVP with Trout healthy, but would you be shocked if he hit .300+ and had 30 HR's with 20+ SB?
I'd actually be somewhat shocked if he ever hits 30 HR in a Sox uniform. Fenway is just poison for his HR power.I don't think he will win MVP with Trout healthy, but would you be shocked if he hit .300+ and had 30 HR's with 20+ SB?
You've mentioned Benintendi's home/road left/right splits a few times, and while they are vast, they were also powered by a .170 BABIP against lefties in Boston. On the road: .405 with a 144 wRC+. His K/BB ratio is better against southpaws wherever.I'd actually be somewhat shocked if he ever hits 30 HR in a Sox uniform. Fenway is just poison for his HR power.
Of course I'm not saying Fenway is bad for LHH in general; only that it puts certain constraints on LH power, and Benintendi's power profile appears to align pretty unfortunately with those constraints. From what we've seen so far, he doesn't really have opposite-field HR power, and he wouldn't hit a lot of oppo HR in any park. His HR/FB to left field on the road is 2.2%; at Fenway, he's still waiting for his first oppo dinger. Fenway does give him some wall balls, so his overall BABIP on flyballs to left at Boston (.146) is better than on the road (.122), as is true of probably every Red Sox hitter ever.I don't want people to get the idea that Fenway is torturous for left-handers — it isn't.
He does use the wall. He just doesn't have enough power to clear it.I'd be shocked if Beni doesn't learn to use the wall. He's too good a hitter not to.
The difference between Fenway (90 park factor for LH power) and the Bidet (114) seems to be around four or five homers to the pull side, which is right in line with the numbers.
Under that hypothetical I don't think that is an unreasonable estimate at all. He has performed, on average objectively the same (18 bWAR) in Harper's case and slightly better than Machado's 17 WAR the past three seasons who are impending free agents.. At this point I am not sure what that would be. Ten years 300 million sounds a little high, but I am certain if he was a free agent this last off season he would be approaching the thirty million a year mark.