The Fat Panda Thread

[O Captain! My Captain!]

I think Panda's dive is very good support that he should lose 50 pounds if he wants to stay healthy.  He looks like an actual Panda doing a belly flop in a pool that has been emptied.

i'd say he should keep the pounds on. if he didn't have all the extra padding he may have cracked a rib.
 
look, sure he should lose some weight and it would probably improve his long-term career prospects, but there's no indication that he can or will and it's not like sandoval hasn't heard all of this before.

 

[In my lifetime]

i'd say he should keep the pounds on. if he didn't have all the extra padding he may have cracked a rib.
 
look, sure he should lose some weight and it would probably improve his long-term career prospects, but there's no indication that he can or will and it's not like sandoval hasn't heard all of this before.

 
He definitely can lose weight, it is certainly not impossible.  My point is that looking at the play, if Sandoval is not 75 pounds overweight, I don't believe he injures his neck at all.  I don't think he needs to be the ideal weight (approx 146-184 for someone 5'11"), but he is listed at 255 and probably is closer to 275.  That is a tremendous stress on his body and any diving plays magnify the force of the weight on his body.  Getting Sandoval on a much more strict regimen would protect the RS investment in him.

 

[drbretto]

 
He definitely can lose weight, it is certainly not impossible.  My point is that looking at the play, if Sandoval is not 75 pounds overweight, I don't believe he injures his neck at all.  I don't think he needs to be the ideal weight (approx 146-184 for someone 5'11"), but he is listed at 255 and probably is closer to 275.  That is a tremendous stress on his body and any diving plays magnify the force of the weight on his body.  Getting Sandoval on a much more strict regimen would protect the RS investment in him.

 
 
This is a pet peeve of mine. There are different body types. I'm 5'9" short and if I was 184 lbs, I would look like I was literally sick and have no muscle. My actual healthy weight is closer to 220. Sandoval's body type doesn't seem that far off from mine.
 
In any case, I think the good Captain's point, if he had one beyond the joke, was that Panda is Panda at this point. He's a perfectly healthy endomorph. I don't really see any value whatsoever to anyone bringing up his weight issues. He is going to live or die as he is right here and now. The event that sparked this little chain of thought was a nifty little athletic diving play. He's doing his job, fat and all. Complaining about his weight is 100% worthless.

 

[In my lifetime]

Of course, these things are better measured by % body fat. We don't have access to that information.  However, I don't believe as you state "he is going to live or die as he is right here and now."  People and especially pro-athletes are capable of losing weight, while maintaining or increasing muscle mass.  Papi lost a significant amount of weight about 4 years ago as did Lackey.  Especially as you get older (for baseball players >30), it can become an issue.  He is hitting well, and he is fielding pretty well, so there is not much to complain about and I am not complaining about him.  It is just evident that Sandoval is significantly overweight even for his large body type and this increases the pounding on all of his joints. Watching that video of the play, shows the significant impact of which weight is a contributing factor.  I don't think he should look like Ramirez or X or even that he ever could like those players. I just hope that for his sake and the RS investment, that he drops 25 pounds or so which would increase the likelihood that he remains healthy and on the field.   

 

[drbretto]

Well, he can lose some weight, obviously. Anyone can. But I disagree that his future is in jeopardy over 25lbs. And looking at Ortiz, it's not like he doesn't have a gut of his own, either.

As he gets older, and as his performance is affected, he'll listen to guys like Papi when they offer that advice and drop a few pounds in the off-season but I disagree with the notion that his weight is an issue right now. I'll grant the higher chance for injury. I just think it's being overblown. I think, not towards any one individual, just sports fans in general take his fat as some kind of sign of disrespect towards the game. I think it's just the side effect of what works for him and he is what he is, and that's what they paid for.

 

[Sprowl]

Split off from the Defense GIFs thread, lest the latter devolve into the inevitable Fat Panda thread.
 
This thread is for all hand-wringing, dieting, binge-eating, purging and discussion related to Pablo 'Endomorph' Sandoval. Come on, you know you can't resist... :unsure2:

 

[grimshaw]

I think it would be useful to bring up the list of Red Sox who a casual observer could note as "beefy" since 1985 to have some reference.
 
Kevin Mitchell
Matt Stairs
Butch "Huskey"
Bartolo Colon
Rich Garces
David Wells
Jim Corsi
Rod Beck
Roberto Petagine
John Lackey
Josh Beckett
Calvin Pickering
Troy O'Leary (not fat, but his nickname was "Yummy.")
Mo Vaughn
Papi
 
OK.  Not so useful.  None of those positional guys played the field effectively carrying the extra weight, but almost all of the pitchers remained pretty good post age 30.
Lackey is notable for dropping a lot of weight and becoming better as a result.  Wells and Colon were/are freaks.  Clemens and Schill both put on weight late in their careers as well but it didn't seem to affect them much either
 
Basically we're in uncharted territory having a hot corner fatty.

 

[O Captain! My Captain!]

Not David Ortiz?

 

[foulkehampshire]

I can't say I really care about Pablo's weight as long as his defense remains solid and he hits. 
 
He's really an aberration as far as baseball players go, he has alot of fast-twitch muscle under that hulking frame that allow his to compensate for the bulk. I'm honestly more worried about him blowing out a knee.

 

[Sprowl]

I can't say I really care about Pablo's weight as long as his defense remains solid and he hits. 
 
He's really an aberration as far as baseball players go, he has alot of fast-twitch muscle under that hulking frame that allow his to compensate for the bulk. I'm honestly more worried about him blowing out a knee.

 
Yes, he's not fast but he is quick and agile. He can pounce on a groundball much more gracefully than one would expect from his bulk.

 

[ivanvamp]

Dude is a very good baseball player.  That's enough for me.

 

[BestGameEvah]

I like where he sits on this 3rd base list!!  
 
http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp#elem=[object+Object]&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Player+hitting&game_type='R'&season=2015&season_type=ANY&league_code='MLB'§ionType=sp&statType=hitting&page=1&ts=1430422784915&position='5'

 

[Plympton91]

It is too early for any defensive stats to mean anything, but he doesn't look good to me on defense at all. As long as he's sporting an OBP gt 370 and OPS gt 800, I'm not getting too worked up about it though.

 

[barbed wire Bob]

Not David Ortiz?

 
 

I think it would be useful to bring up the list of Red Sox who a casual observer could note as "beefy" since 1985 to have some reference.
 
Kevin Mitchell
Matt Stairs
Butch "Huskey"
Bartolo Colon
Rich Garces
David Wells
Jim Corsi
Rod Beck
Roberto Petagine
John Lackey
Josh Beckett
Calvin Pickering
Troy O'Leary (not fat, but his nickname was "Yummy.")
Mo Vaughn
Papi
 
OK.  Not so useful.  None of those positional guys played the field effectively carrying the extra weight, but almost all of the pitchers remained pretty good post age 30.
Lackey is notable for dropping a lot of weight and becoming better as a result.  Wells and Colon were/are freaks.  Clemens and Schill both put on weight late in their careers as well but it didn't seem to affect them much either
 
Basically we're in uncharted territory having a hot corner fatty.

Hope this helps.

 

[foulkehampshire]

It is too early for any defensive stats to mean anything, but he doesn't look good to me on defense at all. As long as he's sporting an OBP gt 370 and OPS gt 800, I'm not getting too worked up about it though.

 
He's not rangy, but he seems pretty agile laterally. He positions himself well and is very aggressive on pop-ups and ground-balls. Arm is accurate as well.
 
I don't think he's a plus defender by any means, but he's solid average -> good. 

 

[threecy]

I think it would be useful to bring up the list of Red Sox who a casual observer could note as "beefy" since 1985 to have some reference.
 
Kevin Mitchell
Matt Stairs
Butch "Huskey"
Bartolo Colon
Rich Garces
David Wells
Jim Corsi
Rod Beck
Roberto Petagine
John Lackey
Josh Beckett
Calvin Pickering
Troy O'Leary (not fat, but his nickname was "Yummy.")
Mo Vaughn
Papi
 
OK.  Not so useful.  None of those positional guys played the field effectively carrying the extra weight, but almost all of the pitchers remained pretty good post age 30.
Lackey is notable for dropping a lot of weight and becoming better as a result.  Wells and Colon were/are freaks.  Clemens and Schill both put on weight late in their careers as well but it didn't seem to affect them much either
 
Basically we're in uncharted territory having a hot corner fatty.

I don't think Beckett, Lackey, or O'Leary were built anything like Panda.
Also, Clemens put on weight during his Red Sox years, not late in his career.  I would still suggest that he wasn't built like Panda.

 

[grimshaw]

I don't think Beckett, Lackey, or O'Leary were built anything like Panda.
Also, Clemens put on weight during his Red Sox years, not late in his career.  I would still suggest that he wasn't built like Panda.

That's why I described them as beefy.  They haven't had many guys built like Panda.  And none who played 3rd.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Basically we're in uncharted territory having a hot corner fatty.

 
Closest thing might be Youk--not exactly a "fatty," certainly not in Panda's league, but he did have a bit of the dadbod.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

Kevin Mitchell
Matt Stairs
Butch "Huskey"
Bartolo Colon
Rich Garces
David Wells
Jim Corsi
Rod Beck
Roberto Petagine
John Lackey
Josh Beckett
Calvin Pickering
Troy O'Leary (not fat, but his nickname was "Yummy.")
Mo Vaughn
Papi
 

 
Sam Horn doesn't make the cut? 

 

[Plympton91]

 
He's not rangy, but he seems pretty agile laterally. He positions himself well and is very aggressive on pop-ups and ground-balls. Arm is accurate as well.
 
I don't think he's a plus defender by any means, but he's solid average -> good. 

In order to call him average, you have to be able to name 12 to 15 starters that he's better than though. Is he better defensively than Chase Headley? Better than Evan Longoria? Better than Josh Donaldson? Machado? I think that is all a big no. So he's the worst defensive third baseman in the AL East at his current weight. I don't see enough of the rest of the league to judge, maybe all the best ones are just in the AL East?

 

[BestGameEvah]

I feel like he's been better than both Headley & Machado  this year.  Offensively & Defensively.  That's my eye test, tho.

 

[grimshaw]

 
Sam Horn doesn't make the cut? 

I just couldn't bring myself to write his name down.  I didn't want to get struck by lightning.

 

[Monbonthbump]

Two words: John Kruk.

 

[effectivelywild]

I feel like he's been better than both Headley & Machado  this year.  Offensively & Defensively.  That's my eye test, tho.

FWIW, Fangraphs have him listed as 15th in terms of defensive value (ahead of Headley, behind Machado).  5th in WAR, though

 

[Al Zarilla]

Two words: John Kruk.

Best comp for me is Kirby Puckett, because of surprising athleticism for portly guys. Kruk could hit, but that was it for his baseball ability.

 

[joe dokes]

 
He's not rangy, but he seems pretty agile laterally. He positions himself well and is very aggressive on pop-ups and ground-balls. Arm is accurate as well.
 
I don't think he's a plus defender by any means, but he's solid average -> good. 

He also seems to have insanely good hands. Like Lowell. He seems to make all the short-hoppish "tough plays" look pretty routine and if he gets a glove on it he plays it.  (I say "seems" because I've watched him regularly for a total of 20 or so games.)

 

In order to call him average, you have to be able to name 12 to 15 starters that he's better than though. Is he better defensively than Chase Headley? Better than Evan Longoria? Better than Josh Donaldson? Machado? I think that is all a big no. So he's the worst defensive third baseman in the AL East at his current weight. I don't see enough of the rest of the league to judge, maybe all the best ones are just in the AL East?
 
 
 
 

 
This raises an interesting point (interesting to me....)
Is defense different than hitting. If a batter hits 300 (lets just use BA as shorthand), but its 1930 and the league average is 300, then its not saying much if a guy is hitting 300.  But is defense a little different?  If you're hitting and pitching are good, but everyone else is great, then you will lose lots of times.  But if Sandoval is pretty good or really good *defensively* and the others are great, is the difference as significant? 

 

[In my lifetime]

Is it time for Panda to abandon switch hitting for a few weeks? He looks completely lost from the right side. There is no reason for a lefty to ever throw him a strike since he is flailing at balls a foot out of the zone.

 

[radsoxfan]

Is it time for Panda to abandon switch hitting for a few weeks? He looks completely lost from the right side. There is no reason for a lefty to ever throw him a strike since he is flailing at balls a foot out of the zone.

 
Brock's got a neutral split, and a major league career .276/.327/.392/.719 line in 220 career plate appearances against lefties.
 
He should be getting most of the starts, and Panda should be hitting 9th and treated like the pitcher if he does play.  Pablo's approach is that bad. He was atrocious all season last year too so it's not like its a small sample we're talking about. 

 

[nattysez]

 
Brock's got a neutral split, and a major league career .276/.327/.392/.719 line in 220 career plate appearances against lefties.
 
He should be getting most of the starts, and Panda should be hitting 9th and treated like the pitcher if he does play.  Pablo's approach is that bad. He was atrocious all season last year too so it's not like its a small sample we're talking about. 

 
Both the SF Chronicle and the A's broadcast made a point to mention that both Nava and Victorino are Red Sox who gave up on switch-hitting recently.  I have to think Panda will be urged to do so as well.  

 

[radsoxfan]

 
Both the SF Chronicle and the A's broadcast made a point to mention that both Nava and Victorino are Red Sox who gave up on switch-hitting recently.  I have to think Panda will be urged to do so as well.  

 
Nothing like your 95M investment trying something brand new in the major leagues in a third of his plate appearances (and probably the majority of the late inning, close game ones)….

 

[ponchsox]

It's so nice to have a 3B that can hit.

 

[TigerBlood]

 
Nothing like your 95M investment trying something brand new in the major leagues in a third of his plate appearances (and probably the majority of the late inning, close game ones).

He can't really do worse can he? I suppose it could mess him up hitting righties, baseball players always find ways to be mentally disrupted by things like that.

 

[lexrageorge]

 
Nothing like your 95M investment trying something brand new in the major leagues in a third of his plate appearances (and probably the majority of the late inning, close game ones)….

The timing of your post was impeccable.  
 
Career wise, it's more like 25% of this plate appearances have come against lefties.  I'm not convinced he'll stay this bad; 0.686 OPS against lefties 2 seasons ago is still something to consider.

 

[CarolinaBeerGuy]

 
Nothing like your 95M investment trying something brand new in the major leagues in a third of his plate appearances (and probably the majority of the late inning, close game ones)….

It's either that or he gets benched against lefties.

 

[BestGameEvah]

 
Both the SF Chronicle and the A's broadcast made a point to mention that both Nava and Victorino are Red Sox who gave up on switch-hitting recently.  I have to think Panda will be urged to do so as well.  

From Rob Bradford, WEEI today on the subject:
 
"We’re trying to get there with him from the right side," Davis said. "He’s not going to duplicate with the left side and the right side, but if we can get him to do some of the things we’ll be OK. Everybody says he’s a free swinger, but on the left side he really reads pitches. His body is under such good control, and he has such good hands. We’re trying to get him there righty. We were working with him [Monday], and we’re going to keep working at it. He’s hit righty before."
And that's why the Red Sox feel this scene -- as uncomfortable as it might be to watch -- could very well be an aberration. They point to his .270 batting average against lefties in 2013, and a 2014 World Series in which he went 3-for-7 from the right side after a regular season of hitting .199 from that side.
It's also why you won't see Sandoval using that unbelievably effective left-handed stroke against lefty pitchers any time soon. This is what he, and others, considers the last obstacle to presenting the entire package.
"He’s too proud," said Davis. "He’s talked about it before but I don’t think he wants to do that. He knows he can hit right-handed, and I believe he can hit right-handed."
The Sox hitting coach added, "I think a big part of it is he doesn’t know all these guys over here. In the National League he knew the pitchers over there. He knew what they had, he knew how they pitched him. It’s going to take him going around a bit. In the meantime it’s a little frustrating for him. I’ve never seen him frustrated. We do look at video and I’ve talked to [Giants hitting coach] Bam Bam [Meulens] … I’m going to give him another call, too. Maybe there’s some things he did with him right-handed that we might be lacking here, that we haven’t done. But we’re working at it. I thought he had a good day today in the cage, a good BP day. He’s aggressive and when you’re aggressive and uncomfortable. I do think his comfort zone is starting to come."
 

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Career wise, it's more like 25% of this plate appearances have come against lefties.  I'm not convinced he'll stay this bad; 0.686 OPS against lefties 2 seasons ago is still something to consider.

 
He certainly won't stay this bad; the question is how bad he turns out to be once we get out of the SSS zone. His platoon split has been widening in recent seasons, which suggests that NL LHP had been getting better and better at exploiting his weaknesses (or, alternatively, that he had been having more and more AB against Clayton Kershaw...).
 
If he's a .900 hitter vs. RHP, then he only has to be a .600 hitter vs. LHP to be an .800+ hitter overall, which seems like a reasonable place to set the bar. Obviously he's not going to be a strength vs. LHP anytime soon, but I think the idea of platooning him -- which you know is going to mean big clubhouse kerfuffle -- comes into play only if he remains a genuine black hole vs. lefties.

 

[TigerBlood]

"He's too proud."

For the love of God. He looks like he's never swung right-handed before, what is there to be proud of? I don't think you can apply small sample size when its so painfully obvious that his RH hitting skill has simply vanished, because it isn't really a matter of the results not matching up with the performance. He looks far, far worse than even Craig ever did.

If coaches really believe he can regain the skill, by all means, let him work on it. But lets not let him off the hook by saying this is just a small sample outlier.

 

[Al Zarilla]

From Rob Bradford, WEEI today on the subject:
 
 We do look at video and I’ve talked to [Giants hitting coach] Bam Bam [Meulens] … I’m going to give him another call, too. Maybe there’s some things he did with him right-handed that we might be lacking here, that we haven’t done. But we’re working at it. I thought he had a good day today in the cage, a good BP day. He’s aggressive and when you’re aggressive and uncomfortable. I do think his comfort zone is starting to come."
 

Wouldn't it be something if Bam Bam told Chili something that helped Pablo from the right side and the Sox and the Giants met in the world series and Pablo won it with a right handed hit? We can write to Santa and ask for that.

 

[joe dokes]

 
He certainly won't stay this bad; the question is how bad he turns out to be once we get out of the SSS zone. His platoon split has been widening in recent seasons, which suggests that NL LHP had been getting better and better at exploiting his weaknesses (or, alternatively, that he had been having more and more AB against Clayton Kershaw...).
 
If he's a .900 hitter vs. RHP, then he only has to be a .600 hitter vs. LHP to be an .800+ hitter overall, which seems like a reasonable place to set the bar. Obviously he's not going to be a strength vs. LHP anytime soon, but I think the idea of platooning him -- which you know is going to mean big clubhouse kerfuffle -- comes into play only if he remains a genuine black hole vs. lefties.

 
He's also likely to be a better defender than his replacement.

 

[radsoxfan]

The timing of your post was impeccable.  
 

 
Ha, it was.  Fortunately, once you get to extra innings the other teams don't have enough pitchers to mix and match anymore.
 
I think a .900/.600 split (.800+ OPS overall) for Pablo would overall be a pretty successful season overall as Savin suggests.  But of course, he would be slightly less valuable (and more irritating) than the numbers suggest since he'll be exposed late in close games.
 
For the moment, I'd probably split the difference on a platoon and give Holt half the starts against lefties until Pablo figures it out a little bit.  He could use a game or two off a week anyway.
 
 
Also, I'm not sure who in the long above quote above "they" refers to regarding Pablo's 3-7 World Series as a RHH last year being important, but I hope that's a joke. 

 

[nighthob]

 
Sam Horn doesn't make the cut? 

 
He wasn't all that beefy when he played with Boston. Though he was probably turning 275-280 when he played for the Orioles. (He wasn't in any sense thin, either, but at his size the 240-245 that he weighed wasn't that much.)

 

[bellowthecat]

Holt's career 99 wRC+ against LHP probably belies his true ability.  His triple slash is .276/.327/.392, built on the back of a .358 BABIP despite a 22.3 K%, and a 6.8 BB% in 220 PAs.  I think going forward they will probably hit similarly against LHP, so I don't see much of a benefit in playing Holt there against LHP half the time.

 

[czar]

I love how everyone cites 2013 (27% HardHit% and 99 wRC+ even with an above-average BABIP) as his ceiling as a RHB versus lefties.
 
He's only had a wRC+ > 100 from the right side once in the last 6 years. Let's not pretend he was some masher from that side until a few years ago.
 
I guess I'd be willing to give him a little more time, since he would likely struggle lefty-on-lefty for a while, too, but (like TigerBlood said), spare me the "he's too proud" crap. If I were him, I'd be the opposite of proud of what I have looked like at the dish (from the right side) this year.

 

[joe dokes]

spare me the "he's too proud" crap. If I were him, I'd be the opposite of proud of what I have looked like at the dish (from the right side) this year.

 
When I hear it from *his* mouth, I'll spare it.  I dont think Chili did him any favors describing it that way.

 

[radsoxfan]

Holt's career 99 wRC+ against LHP probably belies his true ability.  His triple slash is .276/.327/.392, built on the back of a .358 BABIP despite a 22.3 K%, and a 6.8 BB% in 220 PAs.  I think going forward they will probably hit similarly against LHP, so I don't see much of a benefit in playing Holt there against LHP half the time.

 
Well in 2014 and 2015, Sandoval has a .180/.224/.284/.507 line against LHP in 237 plate appearances. That's obviously atrocious, and I'm sure we can agree Holt should be able to beat that.  The question is, how much can Pablo improve and get closer to his career line of .263/.310/.379/.689.
 
I doubt his current true talent is his 2014/2015 line, since its almost impossible to be that bad.  At the same time, he looks totally lost out there.
 
They need him to hit from the right side at least a little as the season goes on, so I wouldn't make it a strict platoon.  But I think a breather sometimes, with at minimum some spot starts for Holt and some extra work in the cage for Pablo, would be a good thing in the short term. 

 

[In my lifetime]

Finally!!!
Batting lefty vs lefty and gets a hit.

 

[czar]

Finally!!!
Batting lefty vs lefty and gets a hit.

 
Don't get too excited...
 

Brian MacPherson‏@brianmacp

Pablo Sandoval said his sore knee was the reason he hit lefty against a lefty: "If I'm OK, I'm going to hit righthanded."

 

[In my lifetime]

 
Don't get too excited...
 

Brian MacPherson‏@brianmacp

Pablo Sandoval said his sore knee was the reason he hit lefty against a lefty: "If I'm OK, I'm going to hit righthanded."

 
Yea. Why bother abandoning something that is working so successfully to the tune of an OPS of .142 so far this year on top of a 2014 OPS of .563 in 191 ABs?  That is 232 ABs resulting in 40 hits over a year plus. The RS might as well DH for him against lefties and let the pitcher hit.  

 

[TigerBlood]

I never wish for player injuries, but in this case I would be quite happy if his knee never healed.

Someone needs to ask him what WOULD it take for him to abandon RH hitting. The first step in making him think reasonably about it is showing him that there must exist SOME point at which he would admit to have lost the ability. Only then could you potentially convince him that now (or maybe about a year ago) is that point.

 

[Pearl Wilson]

Sounds like there is a little bit of a dynamic here and a little bit of digging in of heels. It'll be interesting to see how things shake out.