The Celtics and Building a Contender - Roster Crunch.

[Cellar-Door]

I hate Okafor more than most here. I'd still trade Mickey for him.
In general though I wouldn't trade any Brooklyn pick for him.
I understand the concern that impact players aren't getting traded, but that makes me want to keep the BRK picks more. It's early but I think I'd prefer anyone available top 5 this year to Okafor.

 

[bowiac]

Is there some other Jordan Mickey out there or something?

 

[wutang112878]

I must note that I raised the issue of 3 picks for Okafor as a question, not a strident demand. Perhaps he is not worth it. Even better, perhaps he could be gotten for less (i.e;' one NJ pick and 3 Boston picks)

Putting aside the assessment of Okafor and if he's worth it, giving away the 3 Nets picks is a huge, giant, ridiculous bounty right now. If you trade those picks for 1 guy, they need to be a Lebron, Durant, Kobe in his prime type who instantly puts you in contention.

The real disagreement is whether or not the Celts are in GFIN mode; where "now" could be realized this or next year.

* GFIN mode: Score a valuable asset (perhaps overpaying) this year, and with the resulting "50+" win team attract a free agent next year .
And maybe get lucky with one of the slew of protected first round picks; and assume that that olynk/bradley/smart/sullinger continue to improve.

* Not yet GFIN mode: Build via the draft: hold on to the picks and hope you get lucky.
That means you are almost certainly going to be building a new team around these picks (since they are likely to be impact players in 3 to 5 years).

Which is the better approach? It's not an easy call, but I favor the former.

Go to the RealGM Draft pick credit / debits. The Celtics are in a position where they have so many picks coming they absolutely have to move some of them because they literally would run out of roster spots. So to some degree you are going to get a bit of GFIN type of move. Danny already did this with Thomas, he wanted him but he would have preferred to tank last year and get Thomas in the offseason, but instead he made a move that hurt the Celts draft position because he wanted Thomas. But we just need to be careful about emptying the cupboard thats all. If we get a real building block, then trading away significant assets is ok.

As for the risk associated with Cousins, do you remember the Chief and Dennis Johnson? Those were guys whose attitude and desire were questioned before they got here and Red rolled the dice on them. Once they came to a stable organization that won, suddenly all those problems were gone. Now, Cousins is probably more of a head case than them, but I do think the stable, winning organization that we now have would make him look significantly better than what his perception is right now. I mean Stevens made Rondo look like a good teammate and since he has left he has been one of the worst teammates in the league. So from our perspective this does reduce the Cousins risk.

 

[Fishy1]

Huh? There is no universe in which you take Jordan Mickey's marginal upside over Okafor's considerably higher one. None whatsoever.

Just dumb, thoughtless hyperbole from me.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

What people are objecting to is your assesment of Okafor -- as of now, he looks at best like a poor man's version of Al Jefferson. And even that is being generous. He's an offense first center with the shooting percentage of a guard, who gets his shot blocked more than anyone by a large margin. He brings worse than nothing on defense. He's young and talented, but he's also dead-last in RPM among centers by a huge margin. He's making Primo Pasta Bargnani look like Marc Gasol.

You don't trade a pick for him under any circumstances right now. You don't even trade Jordan Mickey for him right now. I just don't know how you can suggest trading for him in the same breath as you suggest that Demarcus Cousins' "downside can't be ignored." One of these guys is a dominant two-way player who, until his rough start this year, has made his team win whenever he's on the court; the other is 20 years old and is as likely to drive off a bridge going too fast as he is to be a future All-Star.

Let's be clear about this: if you get the opportunity to trade for Cousins, you do it every single time. I'd hate to lose Smart, but if that's the cost of doing business, you do it. The stuff about Cousins being petulant is overblown: he's certainly no Buddha, but I'd be petulant playing for that abysmal franchise, too. Marcus was one of those 'questionable characters' coming out of college, and besides an encounter with the Red Mamba's red mamba, we've heard almost nothing about that since he started playing under Brad.

I mostly agree with you on Cousins however your evaluation of Okafor is extremely flawed. Using analytics to evaluate an NBA player when his teammates either don't have a clue or the ability to compete at the NBA level is going to affect his numbers. When you are a low post offensive player who has teammates that do not provide any spacing it is going to affect his results including BS%. When you lose every single night, sometimes by 30, 40 and even 50 points it would affect any veterans motivation and intensity much less a 19-year old rookie who doesn't have an idea himself of what he is doing.

Maybe he will bust however he is far ahead of a large number of HOF centers when they turned 20-years old including Ewing, Olajuwon, and David Robinson. I still feel as I have since last spring that the only bust in the Top-7 would be D'Angelo Russell. No comment on the Jordan Mickey line I'll assume it was in jest.

 

[swingin val]

Why would you excuse Okafor's difficult start because of his shitty teammates, but still feel that Russell will be a bust when 1) he is playing much better than Okafor and 2) his teammates are equally terrible

 

[ALiveH]

It's way too early to draw any conclusions about what Okafor is or how good he can be. He's a rookie who just turned 20. Even future stars are often terrible NBA players at that age. Pretty much any guy with a high usage rate on a historically bad team will have his efficiency numbers extremely negatively skewed making the advanced stats say he's a really bad player. Okafor on a better team, reducing his USG% should improve his efficiency & advanced stats.

I wouldn't draw too many conclusions on Russell either. His numbers look about as bad Okafor's to me on a team that's almost as bad as Philadelphia. Feel free to have opinions though - i assume your is based on gut or eye test or something similarly unquantifiable.

 

[zenter]

Why would you excuse Okafor's difficult start because of his shitty teammates, but still feel that Russell will be a bust when 1) he is playing much better than Okafor and 2) his teammates are equally terrible

Before I propose an answer, a question. Is there a known development lag between bigs versus other positions both in growing/developing and in terms of learning the NBA? Like, all other things being equal, should we expect Russell to develop faster than Okafor? Or vice versa?

Now the obvious answer: There's only one guy over 25 on the Sixers roster - Carl Landry. He's the only one with any meaningful real-NBA-team experience whatsoever, and the team has exactly 4 others who are 24 or older. They might have equally-bad talent, but players develop better alongside experienced guys.

Learning the way things work on a bad team (Russell) is wildly different from a bad team learning the way things work (Okafor).

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Why would you excuse Okafor's difficult start because of his shitty teammates, but still feel that Russell will be a bust when 1) he is playing much better than Okafor and 2) his teammates are equally terrible

For one, I don't see the difficult start that others have with Okafor as he's shown pretty much what I expected of a 19-year old bit if not more. You can't teach his natural ability to score and create his own shot......unless he's a complete dog Okafor will improve the other areas of his game as well.

Secondly, I didn't like a lot of things about Russell at Ohio State to make me feel his game would translate as well as others do. His shooting mechanics are awful which I feel will limit his upside here and I don't like his handle or playmaking skills to be an elite PG. In short, I'm not a fan of his game if the expectations are of a top 2 player on a team. He's going to have to find his niche in the league like Evan Turner or a Kenny Anderson if you ask me right now.

While on the topic......Pelton had Russell and Devin Booker as two of his highest upside guys in last years draft. I ignore college analytics as I don't believe they translate at all since it is a different game played under different rules. These two were my two lottery picks who I had underperforming their draft slot based on their games translating to the pro game.

 

[dhellers]

Putting aside the assessment of Okafor and if he's worth it, giving away the 3 Nets picks is a huge, giant, ridiculous bounty right now. If you trade those picks for 1 guy, they need to be a Lebron, Durant, Kobe in his prime type who instantly puts you in contention.

There seems to be a faction on this board that would not trade even 1 one of the BKLYN picks (say, plus one of the zillion top-7 protected or non-lottery picks) for Okafor. Interesting -- I find it hard to believe that the expected value of Okafor is less than the expected value of whomever this pick might yield.

OTOH: given a philosophy of waiting for a huge impact player, and waiting some more if you don't get him, such a position kind of makes sense.

Thus my question to this faction: who, in the last 10 years, would qualify for a 1 BKLYN pick + 1 protected? Base it on what you would of known 3 months into their first season.

For example, if I pretend to be in this faction, and I cheat a bit and allow some foresight of what they have become ...

First rounder: Bogut, Bargnani, Oden, Bennett don't make it. Towns & Wiggins -- too soon to tell. Maybe Wall, stronger maybe on and Irving, even more so Rose (I am tainted by what seems to be his short window)? Griffin a yes (assuming you skipped his injured first year), and Davis a no doubter.
Second rounder: M Williams, M Beasley, H Thabeet, Evan Turner!, D Williams don't make it. Oladipo and Kidd Gilchrist probably not. Too soon to tell about Russell. Aldridge a yes and Durant a no doubter.
Third round (where Okafor was picked): Favors, Mayo, Adam Morrison don't make it. Porter, Beal and Kanter probably not. Deron WIlliams probably (kind of like Rose, I am tainted by his short window), Horford a strong probably, and Harden a yes (though at the time was he really seen as being this good?)


BTW: since I see no reason Philly would give up Okafor for 1 BKLYN plus stuff, the above exercise probably should assume 2 BKLYN picks plus stuff. Hmm... if Philly is of the same mind -- super impact or bust -- maybe they would give up Okafor for one BKLYN pick!

BTW2: Looking at past draft picks (http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/9th-overall/90509/) over the last 20 years: #9 seems to be a sweet spot (Drummond, DeRosan, Noah, Iguodala, Stoudemire, Nowitzki, S Marion, and McGrady)!

 

[Devizier]

There seems to be a faction on this board that would not trade even 1 one of the BKLYN picks (say, plus one of the zillion top-7 protected or non-lottery picks) for Okafor. Interesting -- I find it hard to believe that the expected value of Okafor is less than the expected value of whomever this pick might yield.

It depends on whether you think Okafor has "best player on a bad team" upside like Shareef Abdur-Rahim or if you think he can develop into a Lamarcus Aldridge type.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

I think Danny is going to have to make a move this season if he wants more than a chance to win one round. The David Lee deal looks like Danny's biggest misstep in a while - Lee just doesn't fit with the Celtics do and giving minutes to Lee just makes the team as a whole worse. At this point, his biggest value to the team is as a big salary that could be used for salary-matching purposes in a big trade should one be available.

Other than that, the C's would be better served by either buying him out or by Bogansing him. Zeller's a limited player, but filling Lee's minutes with a combination of Zeller's roll man/run the floor game and "going small" would immediately make them a better team.

On his latest podcast, Simmons proposed: Brooklyn pick, Lee & Jerebko (for salary-matching), and Young to the Knicks for Melo. That's intriguing, though I'd rather get it done with pick quantity over quality (say, the Dallas, Boston, and Minnesota picks, plus a 2017 pick swap where they get the best of Boston, Brooklyn, or their own first). I feel like the C's have a good supporting cast already. I'd also like to see them go for Boogie (I'd deal the Brooklyn pick without hesitation there, along with more firsts), but I'm not sure how well the C's match up.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

BTW2: Looking at past draft picks (http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/9th-overall/90509/) over the last 20 years: #9 seems to be a sweet spot (Drummond, DeRosan, Noah, Iguodala, Stoudemire, Nowitzki, S Marion, and McGrady)!

You forgot the immortal Eric Montross, who should be going into the HoF any day now.

 

[Tuff Ghost]

I was wondering about where the Celtics could best stand to upgrade to get to that next level. To get a rough estimate of top players and how the Celtics stack up, I took a quick look at RPM of the top 5 players at each position and compared it to the Celtics starters. The biggest difference between the top players and the Celtics starters comes in at the PG position, but this is mostly because of the dominance of Curry, Westbrook, and Lowry who are in a league of their own.

Crowder and Sullinger seem to be the two best Celtics players in comparison to top players at their position. This got me thinking- is Cousins really a good piece to spend assets on? I think Sullinger would have to go to the bench if Cousins was brought in; I am not really seeing them on the court together. I guess downstream this would hopefully limit minutes for Lee and the already sparsely used Zeller, which would be good, but in an ideal world, would upgrading our backcourt be a better idea than our bigs? Obviously, it all comes down to availability of players (it would be nice if Bledsoe was actually on the trade block like the rumors were earlier this year).

Here is what I found:

Top 5 - 1's (PG) - Curry, Westbrook, Lowry, Bledsoe, Wall:
Average: RPM: 7.79, ORPM: 7.00, DRPM: 0.79
Celtics:
Thomas: RPM: 2.63, ORPM: 5.34, DRPM: -2.71
Smart: RPM: -1.97, ORPM: -1.98, DRPM: 0.01 (obviously an extra small sample alert here with only 9 g played)

Top 5 - 2's (SG) - Harden, Butler, Ginobili, Batum, Middleton
Average: RPM: 3.29, ORPM: 3.49, DRPM: -0.20
Celtics:
Bradley: RPM: 0.78, ORPM: 1.52, DRPM: -0.78

Top 5 - 3's (SF) - Leonard, James, Durant, George, Crowder
Average: RPM: 6.57, ORPM: 4.58, DRPM: 1.99
Celtics:
Crowder: RPM: 3.86, ORPM: 1.28, DRPM: 2.58

Top 5 - 4's (PF) - Green, Millsap, Love, Griffin, Bosh:
Average: RPM: 5.39, ORPM: 3.20, DRPM: 2.19
Celtics:
Johnson: RPM: 2.23, ORPM: -0.09, DRPM: 2.32

Top 5 - 5's (C) - Jordan, Duncan, Drummond, Ezeli, Plumlee:
Average: RPM: 4.59, ORPM: 0.05, DRPM: 4.54
Celtics:
Sullinger: RPM: 3.14, ORPM: 0.10, DRPM: 3.04

 

[dhellers]

I think Danny is going to have to make a move this season if he wants more than a chance to win one round. The David Lee deal looks like Danny's biggest misstep in a while - Lee just doesn't fit with the Celtics do and giving minutes to Lee just makes the team as a whole worse. At this point, his biggest value to the team is as a big salary that could be used for salary-matching purposes in a big trade should one be available.

Other than that, the C's would be better served by either buying him out or by Bogansing him. Zeller's a limited player, but filling Lee's minutes with a combination of Zeller's roll man/run the floor game and "going small" would immediately make them a better team.

On his latest podcast, Simmons proposed: Brooklyn pick, Lee & Jerebko (for salary-matching), and Young to the Knicks for Melo. That's intriguing, though I'd rather get it done with pick quantity over quality (say, the Dallas, Boston, and Minnesota picks, plus a 2017 pick swap where they get the best of Boston, Brooklyn, or their own first). I feel like the C's have a good supporting cast already. I'd also like to see them go for Boogie (I'd deal the Brooklyn pick without hesitation there, along with more firsts), but I'm not sure how well the C's match up.

I heard that. Makes me nervous putting a star that isn't as good as he thinks he is into this mix, but since you aren't giving up much of immediate worth; it would be interesting to give it a try.
But I doubt the NYK would bite, they aren't that much worse than the Celts (that is: they don't seem to be interested in tanking)

 

[BigSoxFan]

With Thomas, Smart, and Bradley all in the fold at cheap money, I don't really see the backcourt as an issue. On the other hand, there is far more uncertainty in the frontcourt. Crowder is signed longterm but would probably be better used anchoring the 2nd unit with IT. Sully and Johnson are not signed longterm and aren't real difference makers. Olynyk would probably be better off used off the bench as well.

The problem with trading the Brooklyn pick during the season is that you're giving up on your chances of potentially landing a franchise guy in Simmons. It'd only be a 8-14% chance but I don't give that up for a guy post-30 like Melo. For Cousins, I would do it without blinking. The downside to keeping the pick is that if you don't get Simmons, you're getting a raw guy like Ingram, LaBissiere, Bender, etc. Add one of those guys to our team the next couple of years and we're still in bball purgatory.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

The problem with trading the Brooklyn pick during the season is that you're giving up on your chances of potentially landing a franchise guy in Simmons. It'd only be a 8-14% chance but I don't give that up for a guy post-30 like Melo. For Cousins, I would do it without blinking.

That's pretty much where I am at. I think the supporting cast is more or less there already, so I'd rather give up multiple lesser #1s for Melo instead of the Brooklyn pick.

 

[dhellers]

That's pretty much where I am at. I think the supporting cast is more or less there already, so I'd rather give up multiple lesser #1s for Melo instead of the Brooklyn pick.

Why would NYK accept a bunch of lesser #1s?
Would next year's #1 be more palatable to give up?

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Why would NYK accept a bunch of lesser #1s?
Would next year's #1 be more palatable to give up?

Maybe they wouldn't. In which case I lean against getting involved.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Why would NYK accept a bunch of lesser #1s?
Would next year's #1 be more palatable to give up?

Depends. They may be bearish on the Nets' chances over the next few years and could view the 2017/2018 Nets picks as more valuable than the 2016 one. Or, they could be higher on those drafts. If the Celtics offered their own 2016 pick and the 2017/2018 Nets picks, I could see the Knicks potentially biting. I wouldn't do it because a 32 year-old Melo doesn't intrigue me. But if Danny wanted to make an immediate move while keeping the 2016 Nets pick intact, that's the type of deal I could see happening.

 

[jon abbey]

Not sure if it was mentioned, but Melo also has a full no-trade clause. I think there's probably a deal between BOS/NY that makes sense for both teams, but I doubt Melo would sign off on it.

 

[dhellers]

Not sure if it was mentioned, but Melo also has a full no-trade clause. I think there's probably a deal between BOS/NY that makes sense for both teams, but I doubt Melo would sign off on it.

After yesterday's game, why would the Celts want Melo?

 

[nighthob]

The Celtics need a player that can score in end-of-game situations if they want to make playoff noise. Lil' Zeke ain't it. But it's a moot point as Anthony won't get traded until this summer at the earliest.

 

[ALiveH]

Going for Carmelo only really makes sense to me if he's serious about wanting to win & if there's other big moves being made because I don't think just that move takes us to the promised land. Also, since he's 31 & would cost a lot to acquire it immediately starts the clock on an aggressive GFIN mode. Is Carmelo a guy that other stars want to play with? Are his efficiency numbers being negatively skewed the last couple years by being on a terrible team or is he already in decline?

 

[mcpickl]

If the Celtics make a big move this season, for me the target is still Gordon Hayward. Besides the obvious familiarity with the coach, I think he fills a need being a wing scorer who's still in his prime. It might be a bit early for Utah to move him, this summer might be more realistic, but it's getting close. Their most likely scenario for the season is battling right down to the end of the season to hold on to the #8 seed and earning the right to be swept by Golden State. In my opinion, the best case scenario for Utah is moving up a spot or two from their current #8 seed and getting walloped by San Antonio or OKC in the first round. After that, they'll only have Hayward under control for one more season, with Hayward having the opt-out after 2016-17 which he'll surely use if healthy. Unless Hayward gives them an assurance he'll re-sign with Utah that summer, when they'll also have to pay Gobert, they have to at least start thinking about moving him.

 

[Grin&MartyBarret]

After yesterday's game, why would the Celts want Melo?

Maybe they make decisions based on a larger sample size?

 

[Tuff Ghost]

I don't understand the belief that Anthony is the answer to end of game scoring and Thomas is so quickly dismissed. I'd be happy to have both, but to say that Anthony is the answer when Thomas is not seems wrong.

Maybe you think Anthony shoots better, but I'd take Thomas:
TS%: Anthony (.528) and Thomas (.553)
2p FG%: Anthony (.452) and Thomas (.459)
3p FG%: Anthony (.343) and Thomas (.341)

Maybe you think Anthony creates shots better, but I am not sure about that:
Shots per 100 possessions: Anthony (27.0) and Thomas (24.4)
Assist %: Anthony (19.7) and Thomas (35.9)
Turnover %: Anthony (11.7) and Thomas (12.6)

Obviously, Anthony can do some things that Thomas cannot do (such as get a rebound), but I think there is a fair argument that Thomas is just as good as generating offense on any given play. Thomas is a very good offensive player.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

If anything, Anthony has value as a complement to Thomas (and vice versa). He's a legit go to option and having just one is not enough.

I think it would depend on the asking price, but I would not be averse to an Anthony deal if the cost was reasonable. If Lee and a package of firsts (but not the Brooklyn pick) would get it done I'd be all over it. But I don't think that is realistic so I'm not sure I'd want to do it.

 

[nighthob]

I don't understand the belief that Anthony is the answer to end of game scoring and Thomas is so quickly dismissed. I'd be happy to have both, but to say that Anthony is the answer when Thomas is not seems wrong.

Maybe you think Anthony shoots better, but I'd take Thomas:
TS%: Anthony (.528) and Thomas (.553)
2p FG%: Anthony (.452) and Thomas (.459)
3p FG%: Anthony (.343) and Thomas (.341)

Maybe you think Anthony creates shots better, but I am not sure about that:
Shots per 100 possessions: Anthony (27.0) and Thomas (24.4)
Assist %: Anthony (19.7) and Thomas (35.9)
Turnover %: Anthony (11.7) and Thomas (12.6)

Obviously, Anthony can do some things that Thomas cannot do (such as get a rebound), but I think there is a fair argument that Thomas is just as good as generating offense on any given play. Thomas is a very good offensive player.

No, what I think is that Anthony isn't a sub 5'9" player that struggles to score when teams focus their entire defensive attention on him in end-of-game isolation situations. His performance with Boston last year in those situations was abysmal (eFG% .386 during the season), which was followed by him getting swallowed whole in the playoffs (eFG% .361) when the ten man rotation shtick is considerably less effective. If they want a playoff series to last more than four games they need someone to reduce Lil' Zeke to a sidekick.

 

[benhogan]

If the Bucks continue struggling this year any chance to land Kris Middleton (opens up room for Giannis Antetokoumpo at SF)?

He just signed for 5yrs for $70MM, maybe the Bucks will want to hit the reset button, is he eligible to be dealt after just signing?

Middleton, a young SG/SF that can fill it up from the outside, maybe Marcus Smart + David Lee + Celts 2016 and Mavs 2016 #1 get us involved?

I'd like to see Evan Turner become our #2 PG and get a SG/SF that can shoot the 3.

 

[bowiac]

I wouldn't trade Smart alone for Middleton, let alone include picks, and I certainly don't want to move Smart with the idea of getting Evan Turner more ball handling responsibility...

 

[swingin val]

I wouldn't trade Smart alone for Middleton

Is Middleton especially terrible at defense, or a complete basket-case or something? From my untrained eye, he seems to be a very god basketball player

 

[nighthob]

He's a nice player, but increasing the necessity for Evan Turner's playing time is sort of counterproductive.

 

[sox311]

Can we just look at the Bucks roster as off limits? At least, if they have the correct people in the correct jobs they should be doing just that. They need to sign a sharp shooter and a starting point guard, Conley, this year to get MCW on the bench where he belongs and watch that team flourish.

Does Mayo come off the books this year?

That team has a great future. You only hope they all mature together and don't take more too long until they are all ready for their next ridiculous contract.

Now, if that has J.Kidd on the bench or in the front office, as Woj hinted, we will see...

 

[benhogan]

He's a nice player, but increasing the necessity for Evan Turner's playing time is sort of counterproductive.

Obviously IT gets the lions share of the minutes at PG. Turner is going to get floor time, what position should he play?

Is Smart a better fit because of future cap space then Middleton? I think adding Lee to any deal is a negative, so there's that element. The draft picks will probably be somewhere around 18-25 and sweeteners to a team in 'blow up' mode. A guy of Middleton's size could back up Jae when playing LeBron in the playoffs.

Are the Bucks players off limits even if they continue this spiral down? They could be eliminated from Eastern League playoff contention by All-Star break

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Obviously IT gets the lions share of the minutes at PG. Turner is going to get floor time, what position should he play?

Is Smart a better fit because of future cap space then Middleton? I think adding Lee to any deal is a negative, so there's that element. The draft picks will probably be somewhere around 18-25 and sweeteners to a team in 'blow up' mode. A guy of Middleton's size could back up Jae when playing LeBron in the playoffs.

Are the Bucks players off limits even if they continue this spiral down? They could be eliminated from Eastern League playoff contention by All-Star break

Smart is 21 and already an impact defender in the NBA - that is a rare find. And while his offensive game is limited right now, there are some promising signs: he shot decently from 3 at times last year and his ability to handle the ball and get into the paint is much improved from his rookie season. His ultimate upside is still something of a mystery, but trading him for Middleton would amount to giving up defense, versatility, and upside in exchange for a better 3 point shot today. That's a bad deal. Removing Lee is addition by subtraction - but they can achieve that gain by buying him out or just benching him.

 

[bowiac]

Can we just look at the Bucks roster as off limits?

I'm probably less optimistic about the Bucks than you, but I agree that they're not moving Middleton unless someone blows them away.

Obviously IT gets the lions share of the minutes at PG. Turner is going to get floor time, what position should he play?
Is Smart a better fit because of future cap space then Middleton?

I have no particular insights into Middleton. He's a good player, worth the max. My concern is more that I think Smart can be almost as good in the short term because of how good defensively he is, and better in the long term. I think he's also a better fit with the current roster, precisely because trading him will make Evan Turner the backup PG, which is a fate too terrible for me to contemplate. I've only just barely made my peace with Evan Turner being on this team at all (though I still pray for season-ending injury).

The cap issues barely matter. It's more age/upside/fit.

 

[Tuff Ghost]

No, what I think is that Anthony isn't a sub 5'9" player that struggles to score when teams focus their entire defensive attention on him in end-of-game isolation situations. His performance with Boston last year in those situations was abysmal (eFG% .386 during the season), which was followed by him getting swallowed whole in the playoffs (eFG% .361) when the ten man rotation shtick is considerably less effective. If they want a playoff series to last more than four games they need someone to reduce Lil' Zeke to a sidekick.

I still think you are underestimating Thomas and overestimating Anthony here. Sure, I'd love another scorer to go with Thomas, but I don't think the difference between the two in this stage of their careers is what you think it is.

Clutch Time this season (Less Than 5 minutes left and neither team leads by more than 5 pts):
Thomas: .419 eFG%
Anthony: .293 eFG%

Last Minute this season (when score margin is not greater than 5):
Thomas: .444 fg % (4 of 9)
Anthony: .222 fg % (2 of 9)

I think you may also be overrating the isolation play. You do not need always need to run an isolation play at the end of the game. Thomas is good at creating scoring opportunities for the players around him and Stevens is good at drawing up plays off of timeouts. If a defense wants to entirely focus on Thomas, that opens up other scoring opportunities.

Last year in the playoffs, he went 3-18 on 3 pt FG, which I think is more of a small sample aberration (.167 3pt FG% vs. career .360 3 pt FG%) in his first playoff series. There is little reason to expect a repeat of that.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Can we just look at the Bucks roster as off limits? At least, if they have the correct people in the correct jobs they should be doing just that. They need to sign a sharp shooter and a starting point guard, Conley, this year to get MCW on the bench where he belongs and watch that team flourish.

Does Mayo come off the books this year?

That team has a great future. You only hope they all mature together and don't take more too long until they are all ready for their next ridiculous contract.

Off limits? The Bucks should be looking to blow up this trainwreck at the deadline.

Unless Giannis turns into Paul George-elite this team is treading water as a lottery team now that they have been passed by a number of EC teams. I expected them to mimic last seasons success as well even after the Knight trade and there have been injuries but this team isn't coming together at all which was necessary due to the lack of elite talent.......they are like the Celtics as far as going 10-11 deep when healthy yet all seem like they have different agendas with zero identity. What are they? They aren't scrappers like the Celtics, their offense is slow and not creative at all, their defense is awful.......what do they do well?

Jabari has always been overrated as an NBA prospect he doesn't have a high upside never did with his lack of athleticism and being a 3/4 tweener. Monroe is solid, decent and all that just as Mayo and Bayless are off the bench. As you say the PG is young and inconsistent while Middleton got paid and seems content. Where is this great future? All of their money is tied up in Middleton and Monroe. Giannis can change all this but otherwise you're talking about a lottery team without much upside.....hardly great and probably likely for a blowout sooner rather than later.

 

[nighthob]

I still think you are underestimating Thomas and overestimating Anthony here. Sure, I'd love another scorer to go with Thomas, but I don't think the difference between the two in this stage of their careers is what you think it is.

No, what I am saying and what has been born out over and over and over again in games that matter is that Lil' Zeke is 5'9" in platform sneakers and just isn't that hard to defend when teams are really focused on doing it. Period. Nice sidekick. But that's what he is, a sidekick. A great transition player that has trouble in halfcourt offenses where his size is a real disadvantage. Boston needs an actual go-to guy that can score in isolation, Thomas has shown zero propensity for that role for his career, and is incredibly unlikely to have a growth spurt at this age.

 

[ALiveH]

I mistakenly deleted my post from a couple days ago on Carmelo - here's my take and a couple questions:

Quick take: Carmelo doesn't immediately put this team over the top. Paying anything more than 1 of the Brooklyn picks (plus salary filler and non-essential players) is a lot to give up for him. He's over 30 years old so it immediately starts the clock on an aggressive GFIN mode for this franchise.

Questions: is his decline in efficiency over the past couple years skills / age related or more a function of playing on a terrible team? How committed is he to winning and do other NBA superstars want to play with him?

 

[nighthob]

Like I said, it would take the 2016 pick as a starting point to get him today as the Knicks don't want to move him yet, so I wouldn't have any interest in him now. This summer when the acquisition cost is lower, presuming that Boston whiffs in free agency otherwise, then the question depends on the price. Part of the problem is just that he's spent several years on a dysfunctional team, so there's always a risk factor. That being said the Celtics are an entire team full of warty players, so they presumably would know what they were getting themselves in to if they decided to go in that direction.

But he would definitely be at the end of my shopping list, an if all else fails type of move.

 

[bowiac]

Off limits? The Bucks should be looking to blow up this trainwreck at the deadline.

Unless Giannis turns into Paul George-elite this team is treading water as a lottery team now that they have been passed by a number of EC teams. I expected them to mimic last seasons success as well even after the Knight trade and there have been injuries but this team isn't coming together at all which was necessary due to the lack of elite talent.......they are like the Celtics as far as going 10-11 deep when healthy yet all seem like they have different agendas with zero identity. What are they? They aren't scrappers like the Celtics, their offense is slow and not creative at all, their defense is awful.......what do they do well?.

What success after trading Knight? They went 11-18 after that swap. They're 12-20 now. They have mimiced last season almost perfectly after the Knight trade.

The case for the Bucks is that Giannis is still only 21 (George was 20 when he entered the league), has great length, and is already a good player (although it seems like he's not quite a George-level athlete). They have Middleton, who while older, is good enough to start for a contender. Monroe is in the same boat. And there's Jabari, who I agree is an Okafor-like overrated prospect, but the guy did go #2 in a pretty strong draft, so we should be careful about writing him off as a tweener just yet (though it's really a problem he doesn't have 3 point range given his size).

The fact that their offense is slow and isn't creative is a good thing meanwhile. It's just easier to fix the offensive scheme than to add talent. Swap Stevens and Kidd, and I'm not sure there's the same kind of chasm.

 

[Tuff Ghost]

No, what I am saying and what has been born out over and over and over again in games that matter is that Lil' Zeke is 5'9" in platform sneakers and just isn't that hard to defend when teams are really focused on doing it. Period. Nice sidekick. But that's what he is, a sidekick. A great transition player that has trouble in halfcourt offenses where his size is a real disadvantage. Boston needs an actual go-to guy that can score in isolation, Thomas has shown zero propensity for that role for his career, and is incredibly unlikely to have a growth spurt at this age.

To be able to put the offensive numbers that he puts up while being 5'9" is a testament to the skills that Thomas has. It's a non-traditional basketball body type, sure, but he finds a way to score. If he put up exactly the same numbers and was 6'3", I think we'd all talk about him differently.

I think end-of-game scoring statistics are fluky due to the very small sample involved, so I think his failures stick in people's memories and re-affirm a belief that he is not capable of scoring in the clutch due to a size limitation.

Here are the effective field goal percentages of a few top scorers this season when there is 1 minute or less in the game and the score differential is 5 pts or less (I also included the previous two seasons in parentheses to show the variability):
Thomas: .500 (.250, .432)
Westbrook: .500 (.347, .406)
Curry: .500 (.344, .431)
Durant: .406 (.214, .420)
James: .400 (.500, .464)
Anthony: .222 (.479, .241)
Harden: .214 (.587, .538)

Obviously, I'd prefer to have any of those other guys (except Anthony) taking the final shot for the Celtics instead of Thomas, but it just shows that there is a flukiness to the end-of-game stats. One or two 3-pointers that rim out can make your numbers look wildly different when you are talking about such a small volume of shots.

 

[nighthob]

OK, I don't care about "testaments to skills". What I care about is being able to root for a contender rather than a plucky team that gets steamrolled by actual contenders in the playoffs. You can dance around this as much as you like, but teams led by 5'9" in platform sneakers players haven't had a track record of playoff success on this side of the 1960s. Lil' Zeke has traditionally struggled with the half court, and it's understandable, because he's fucking short. He's so short that he isn't allowed on the roller coasters at Six Flags.

I don't even give a fuck about Anthony, I keep saying that it's a moot point because he isn't available, won't be until summer time at the earliest, and in all likelihood is going to be more expensive than his net value (he has the Lakers written all over him, probably in a D'Angelo Russell swap). So please put that strawman in the ground. The point is that Boston needs a go-to scorer if they have any aspirations to playing games that matter. Because this roster, when it reaches the postseason, isn't going to find opponents trying to conserve energy for the postseason and isn't going to get to play many, if any minutes, against floor lineups composed entirely of bench players.

Playoff basketball is death on the transition offense that's Lil' Zeke's bread & butter and is almost all halfcourt sets where he struggles. Lil' Zeke the sidekick would be awesome, because teams couldn't gear their halfcourt D to keeping him out of the paint. Lil' Zeke the midget go to guy gets swallowed whole.

 

[ALiveH]

Do you think the fact that the Celtics record is underperforming their scoring differential this year is a symptom of these crunch-time issues?

It's pretty easy to see this underperformance the way ESPN lays out the standings:
http://espn.go.com/nba/standings

 

[luckiestman]

Do you think the fact that the Celtics record is underperforming their scoring differential this year is a symptom of these crunch-time issues?

It's pretty easy to see this underperformance the way ESPN lays out the standings:
http://espn.go.com/nba/standings

I don't, I think it is schedule related. I think they played a lot closer against better teams than they probably should have. 8 of their losses are against SASx2, GSW, Cavs, INDx2, Hawksx2.

I think the Cs have only lost to two teams with a worse record than them. If they play the way they have been playing (fingers crossed), they will be moving up in the East because the schedule is getting substantially easier.

 

[ALiveH]

just going off point differential the C's aren't really worse than the Cavs, IND or Hawks.

 

[nighthob]

I don't, I think it is schedule related. I think they played a lot closer against better teams than they probably should have. 8 of their losses are against SASx2, GSW, Cavs, INDx2, Hawksx2.

I think the Cs have only lost to two teams with a worse record than them. If they play the way they have been playing (fingers crossed), they will be moving up in the East because the schedule is getting substantially easier.

Yes, they finish the worse teams off handily. The problem is strictly limited to those grind it out in the halfcourt games. This team isn't built for them yet. Hopefully a top three pick this June convinces someone like Durant to come to Boston.

 

[bowiac]

Do you think the fact that the Celtics record is underperforming their scoring differential this year is a symptom of these crunch-time issues?

I do, yes. I'm still doing research on this for a piece I'm working on, but very "flat" rosters like the Celtics (where the best player isn't much better than the fourth best player) tend to underperform their point differential, while very top-heavy rosters tend to overperform. This isn't a huge effect, but it's non-zero (the "flattest" teams are about 2 games worse than expectation, while the most top-heavy were about 4.5 games better). The 2015 Celtics were the "flattest" roster in the last ten years, and the 2016 Celtics look even more extreme.

This makes intuitive sense as well. The fact that the Celtics' 2nd unit is almost as good as their first is great, and helps them build leads or keep them close, but that quality 2nd unit doesn't get to play as much in crunch time, so you'd expect that the team's relative quality in close games is diminished.

Edit: Chart.