Mods, feel free to merge this with an existing thread if you think that's better.....
At the end of baseball on Tuesday, May 31, the Red Sox were 32-20, with a 3-game lead in the AL East. They were on a 3-game winning streak, having won 7 of their previous 10 ball games. They had just taken the first two games of a four game set with Baltimore, and there were thoughts that the Sox would bury Baltimore right there and perhaps run away with the division.
They promptly lost the next two to the Orioles, and have proceeded to go 9-15 over a 20 game stretch, losing in nearly every way imaginable. They have lost 7.5 games in the standings to Baltimore, and now sit 4.5 games back in second place.
When they were 32-20, they looked like the best team in the league (and they were). Their .615 winning percentage was second in MLB to only the Cubs. Since then, they have looked like one of the worst teams in all of baseball.
How does a really good team (or what we THINK is a really good team) go through a stretch like they have? What's the anatomy of a team slump?
Well first off, in some ways it's just statistical noise. Stretches of poor results happen to even the best teams. Consider the 2013 World Series champion Red Sox, who went 97-65. On May 2, they were 20-8, with a 2.5 game lead in the division. They promptly went 2-9 over an 11-game stretch and found themselves 3 games back. Later in the season, on August 7 they were 70-46, with a 2.5 game lead in the division, and they proceeded to go 5-9 over a 14-game stretch and saw that lead evaporate to zero.
The 2007 World Series champion Red Sox had stretches where they went 3-8 and 5-9.
The 2004 World Series champion Red Sox had stretches where they went 4-10 and 4-7.
Really good teams go through periods where they put up poor results. Baseball is prone to this kind of thing, and over a 162-game season, it will happen even to better teams.
But it may not just be statistical noise. There may be real, significant reasons why a team goes through a stretch of bad baseball.
What has happened? At the end of May, the Red Sox were the top hitting and scoring team in the American League. In the month of June, their offensive production has fallen off.
· #12 in MLB in runs scored (118)
· #8 in MLB in batting average (.274)
· #5 in MLB in on-base percentage (.347)
· #18 in MLB in slugging percentage (.427)
· #11 in MLB in OPS (.774)
So the offense has really taken a significant dip. And that was understandable, considering that as a team they had been hitting at nearly a .300 clip, something totally unsustainable over the course of an entire season.
Individually, some notable players experienced a regression. In April and May, Jackie Bradley had a slash line of .331/.409/.601/1.010. In June, he has hit .215/.333/.481/.814. The OPS is still pretty solid, but it’s nothing like what it was. Hanley Ramirez hit .295/.355/.416/.771 in the first two months, but in June has put up a line of .220/.301/.396/.697. Not that they were counting on much offense from Christian Vazquez, but in April and May he hit .229/.270/.333/.604, but in June he’s only managed a line of .191/.255/.234/.489. Completely fallen off a cliff.
The offense has not been the team’s biggest problem, but it’s clearly declined in June in a significant way. They had scored first inning runs on a regular basis; they haven’t scored a first inning run since June 11. They were starting out most games with a lead. But for two and a half weeks now, they have yet to get going early, and have scored many of their runs when already behind, often times hopelessly so.
Still, they’ve scored 118 runs in June over 24 games, which comes to just under 5 runs a game. That should be enough to win the majority of a team’s games. So ultimately, though the offense isn’t the juggernaut they were earlier in the season, it isn’t the main culprit.
Here are the pitching numbers. Warning: This may be hazardous to your health.
· April: 4.15 era (#21 in MLB)
· May: 4.07 era (#16 in MLB)
· June: 5.02 era (#26 in MLB)
Until his most recent start, Price had been pitching great in June. Wright has been great all year long. Porcello had a 3.68 era at the end of May, and has put up a 4.45 era in June. The back two spots in the rotation have been disastrous. Consider these people who have filled those spots:
· Kelly: 8.46 era
· Buchholz: 5.90 era
· Rodriguez: 8.59 era
· Owens: 5.11 era
· O’Sullivan: 7.94 era
· Elias: 15.88 era
Combined, these pitchers have put up this line: 157.1 ip, 189 h, 131 r, 126 er, 87 bb, 119 k, 7.21 era, 1.75 whip, 6.8 k/9
Those last two spots have been an unmitigated disaster. That has forced the bullpen to pitch more innings than they should, which has decreased their effectiveness.
Moreover, as it turns out, the bullpen is picking bad times to perform poorly. Kimbrel, brought into tie games, has been very shaky. Uehara has looked old (understandable, since he is) and has gotten shelled lately. Barnes has moments where he is good, but cannot be counted on. On top of it, Carson Smith, a major acquisition in the offseason, got hurt and will miss the rest of the year. There is very little help in sight.
But it’s not just poor pitching. It’s poor defense as well.
In April, the Red Sox gave up 105 runs (100 earned, 5 unearned) in 24 games. In May, the Red Sox gave up 123 runs (113 earned, 10 unearned) in 28 games. In June, the Red Sox have given up 136 runs (119 earned, 17 unearned) in 24 games.
All three phases of the game have declined for the Red Sox here in June. The hitting has gotten worse. The pitching has gotten worse. The defense has gotten worse. And it is all compounding the problem.
This is what happens when a team goes through bad stretches. They pitch well enough to win, but then the offense doesn’t show up (2-1 loss vs SF, 3-2 loss vs Bal, a pair of 3-1 losses to Chicago). The offense has a good day but the pitching is awful (13-9 loss vs Bal, 12-7 loss vs Bal, 13-7 loss vs TB). Too many bases loaded squanders. Too many errors that the pitching cannot overcome and they lead to a huge increase in unearned runs.
What can be done to fix these problems? That is not the scope of this discussion, which is to really examine what has gone wrong. From there we can think about how to address it.
At the end of baseball on Tuesday, May 31, the Red Sox were 32-20, with a 3-game lead in the AL East. They were on a 3-game winning streak, having won 7 of their previous 10 ball games. They had just taken the first two games of a four game set with Baltimore, and there were thoughts that the Sox would bury Baltimore right there and perhaps run away with the division.
They promptly lost the next two to the Orioles, and have proceeded to go 9-15 over a 20 game stretch, losing in nearly every way imaginable. They have lost 7.5 games in the standings to Baltimore, and now sit 4.5 games back in second place.
When they were 32-20, they looked like the best team in the league (and they were). Their .615 winning percentage was second in MLB to only the Cubs. Since then, they have looked like one of the worst teams in all of baseball.
How does a really good team (or what we THINK is a really good team) go through a stretch like they have? What's the anatomy of a team slump?
Well first off, in some ways it's just statistical noise. Stretches of poor results happen to even the best teams. Consider the 2013 World Series champion Red Sox, who went 97-65. On May 2, they were 20-8, with a 2.5 game lead in the division. They promptly went 2-9 over an 11-game stretch and found themselves 3 games back. Later in the season, on August 7 they were 70-46, with a 2.5 game lead in the division, and they proceeded to go 5-9 over a 14-game stretch and saw that lead evaporate to zero.
The 2007 World Series champion Red Sox had stretches where they went 3-8 and 5-9.
The 2004 World Series champion Red Sox had stretches where they went 4-10 and 4-7.
Really good teams go through periods where they put up poor results. Baseball is prone to this kind of thing, and over a 162-game season, it will happen even to better teams.
But it may not just be statistical noise. There may be real, significant reasons why a team goes through a stretch of bad baseball.
What has happened? At the end of May, the Red Sox were the top hitting and scoring team in the American League. In the month of June, their offensive production has fallen off.
· #12 in MLB in runs scored (118)
· #8 in MLB in batting average (.274)
· #5 in MLB in on-base percentage (.347)
· #18 in MLB in slugging percentage (.427)
· #11 in MLB in OPS (.774)
So the offense has really taken a significant dip. And that was understandable, considering that as a team they had been hitting at nearly a .300 clip, something totally unsustainable over the course of an entire season.
Individually, some notable players experienced a regression. In April and May, Jackie Bradley had a slash line of .331/.409/.601/1.010. In June, he has hit .215/.333/.481/.814. The OPS is still pretty solid, but it’s nothing like what it was. Hanley Ramirez hit .295/.355/.416/.771 in the first two months, but in June has put up a line of .220/.301/.396/.697. Not that they were counting on much offense from Christian Vazquez, but in April and May he hit .229/.270/.333/.604, but in June he’s only managed a line of .191/.255/.234/.489. Completely fallen off a cliff.
The offense has not been the team’s biggest problem, but it’s clearly declined in June in a significant way. They had scored first inning runs on a regular basis; they haven’t scored a first inning run since June 11. They were starting out most games with a lead. But for two and a half weeks now, they have yet to get going early, and have scored many of their runs when already behind, often times hopelessly so.
Still, they’ve scored 118 runs in June over 24 games, which comes to just under 5 runs a game. That should be enough to win the majority of a team’s games. So ultimately, though the offense isn’t the juggernaut they were earlier in the season, it isn’t the main culprit.
Here are the pitching numbers. Warning: This may be hazardous to your health.
· April: 4.15 era (#21 in MLB)
· May: 4.07 era (#16 in MLB)
· June: 5.02 era (#26 in MLB)
Until his most recent start, Price had been pitching great in June. Wright has been great all year long. Porcello had a 3.68 era at the end of May, and has put up a 4.45 era in June. The back two spots in the rotation have been disastrous. Consider these people who have filled those spots:
· Kelly: 8.46 era
· Buchholz: 5.90 era
· Rodriguez: 8.59 era
· Owens: 5.11 era
· O’Sullivan: 7.94 era
· Elias: 15.88 era
Combined, these pitchers have put up this line: 157.1 ip, 189 h, 131 r, 126 er, 87 bb, 119 k, 7.21 era, 1.75 whip, 6.8 k/9
Those last two spots have been an unmitigated disaster. That has forced the bullpen to pitch more innings than they should, which has decreased their effectiveness.
Moreover, as it turns out, the bullpen is picking bad times to perform poorly. Kimbrel, brought into tie games, has been very shaky. Uehara has looked old (understandable, since he is) and has gotten shelled lately. Barnes has moments where he is good, but cannot be counted on. On top of it, Carson Smith, a major acquisition in the offseason, got hurt and will miss the rest of the year. There is very little help in sight.
But it’s not just poor pitching. It’s poor defense as well.
In April, the Red Sox gave up 105 runs (100 earned, 5 unearned) in 24 games. In May, the Red Sox gave up 123 runs (113 earned, 10 unearned) in 28 games. In June, the Red Sox have given up 136 runs (119 earned, 17 unearned) in 24 games.
All three phases of the game have declined for the Red Sox here in June. The hitting has gotten worse. The pitching has gotten worse. The defense has gotten worse. And it is all compounding the problem.
This is what happens when a team goes through bad stretches. They pitch well enough to win, but then the offense doesn’t show up (2-1 loss vs SF, 3-2 loss vs Bal, a pair of 3-1 losses to Chicago). The offense has a good day but the pitching is awful (13-9 loss vs Bal, 12-7 loss vs Bal, 13-7 loss vs TB). Too many bases loaded squanders. Too many errors that the pitching cannot overcome and they lead to a huge increase in unearned runs.
What can be done to fix these problems? That is not the scope of this discussion, which is to really examine what has gone wrong. From there we can think about how to address it.