The All-New 2022 Pats Draft Contest!

mwonow

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 4, 2005
6,452
Quick update...this draft was as much of a head-scratcher from the perspective of this contest as from any other!

Collectively, 25 of us advanced over 480 guesses (some potential picks named multiple times, of course). A total of 20 of these guesses were correct. Five people had Strange, 4 had Marcus Jones, two had each of Jack Jones, Peirre Strong, Andrew Steuber, and D'Eriq King, and Zappe, Kevin Harris, and Labryan Ray were each named by one of the 25 folks playing. Nobody guessed that BB would take or sign Thornton, Sam Roberts, Chasen Hines, Brendan Schooler, Kody Russey, DaMarcus Mitchell, Jake Julien, or Liam Shanahan - meaning that collectively, 25 of us only ID'd about half of the new Pats. Particpant scores kind of reflect this: pending new signings in the 24 hours left in the contest, 11 folks have 0 correct, 3 got 1, four got two right, and Old Fart Tree is our provisional champ with 3/20.

If I get a minute, I'll look at a couple of past years. I'm pretty sure we're generally more clued in - which must mean that BB has changed tacks!
 

mwonow

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 4, 2005
6,452
So - was this an unusual year? Here's some info
  • In the early years of this contest, we had fewer players, and only 15 picks allowed.
    • In 2010, we had 10 people playing. One got Devin McCourty, Brandon Spikes, and Rob Gronkowski (@SoxScout in all cases), .Three got Zolan Mesko. Maybe to our credit, nobody got Jermaine Cunningham, Taylor Price or Aaron Hernandez, or Ted Larsen, or Brandon Deaderick, Thomas Welch or Zac.Robinson.
    • In 2011, out of a group of 17 with 15 picks each (so, about half the current volume of guesses), three people got Ras-I Dowling, one (@Mystic Merlin) got Ryan Mallett, one (@pappymojo) got Marcus Cannon, three got Nate Solder correct, one (me) got Shane Vereen. Most common pick was Cam Jordan (15), followed by Danny Watkins and Mo Wilkerson (11) and JJ Watt (9).
  • By 2013, we had expanded to 24 players, and 20 picks per player - so almost exactly what we had this year.
    • In 2013, 6 people got Logn Ryn right, three each got Aaron Dobson, Jamie Collins, and Josh Boyce. one got Michael Buchanan, and @Super Nomario correctly called two UDFAs, TJ Moe and Matt Stankiewich; one player also got UDFA Zach Sudfeld.
    • In 2014, with 23 players (again, totalling about the same number of picks we collectively had this year), 7 people ID'd third round choice Dominique Easley, two (@Mugsy's Jock and @Jeff Van GULLY) correctly picked Jon Halapio, three (including @SMU_Sox) got UDFA Jeremy Deering, and one got UDFA Steven Houston.
    • .In 2016, five people picked 3rd rounder Cyrus Jones "correctly," one got fourth-rounder Malcolm Mitchell, one got UDFA Bryce Williams.
    • In 2017, we only had 11 players, but the Pats draft must have been easier to call. Four people got 3rd rounder Derek Rivers, 3 got 3rd rounder Antonio Garcia, four got 4th rounder Deatrich Wise, three got 6th rounder Conor McDermott, . Two got UDFA Josh Williams, two got UDFA Max Rich, one each got UDFAs Harvey Langhi, Damarius Travis, and D.J. Killings.
    • In 2018, we had 15 players with 20 picks each, about 60% of this year's total picks. It was also a tough year to predict, with two people getting Sony Michel right, and one picking Isaiah Wynn
 

mwonow

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 4, 2005
6,452
Thanks for the corrections! btw, I went down this rabbit hole in response to a question above - is BB's draft always so hard to predict? FWIW, it looks like (and the rules for past drafts and my spreadsheets are both a bit opaque): in 2013, 12 of 24 did not correctly guess any pick or UDFA; in 2014, 12 of 23; in 2016, 9 of 16; and this year, 11/25. So, slightly better in terms of the proportion of people getting at least one name right, kind of weak in terms of the number who landed on any individual added to the roster. We have (thanks, @SMU_Sox!) way better info now, si it seems that the Pats must be more focused on digging into dim corners of the draft-eligible pool.
 

BigJimEd

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2002
3,574
In 2017, we only had 11 players, but the Pats draft must have been easier to call. Four people got 3rd rounder Derek Rivers, 3 got 3rd rounder Antonio Garcia, four got 4th rounder Deatrich Wise, three got 6th rounder Conor McDermott, . Two got UDFA Josh Williams, two got UDFA Max Rich, one each got UDFAs Harvey Langhi, Damarius Travis, and D.J. Killings.
That's pretty impressive considering the Patriots only made those 4 picks that year.
 

RetractableRoof

tolerates intolerance
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 1, 2003
3,836
Quincy, MA
So - was this an unusual year? Here's some info
  • In the early years of this contest, we had fewer players, and only 15 picks allowed.
    • In 2010, we had 10 people playing. One got Devin McCourty, Brandon Spikes, and Rob Gronkowski (@SoxScout in all cases), .Three got Zolan Mesko. Maybe to our credit, nobody got Jermaine Cunningham, Taylor Price or Aaron Hernandez, or Ted Larsen, or Brandon Deaderick, Thomas Welch or Zac.Robinson.
    • In 2011, out of a group of 17 with 15 picks each (so, about half the current volume of guesses), three people got Ras-I Dowling, one (@Mystic Merlin) got Ryan Mallett, one (@pappymojo) got Marcus Cannon, three got Nate Solder correct, one (me) got Shane Vereen. Most common pick was Cam Jordan (15), followed by Danny Watkins and Mo Wilkerson (11) and JJ Watt (9).
  • By 2013, we had expanded to 24 players, and 20 picks per player - so almost exactly what we had this year.
    • In 2013, 6 people got Logn Ryn right, three each got Aaron Dobson, Jamie Collins, and Josh Boyce. one got Michael Buchanan, and @Super Nomario correctly called two UDFAs, TJ Moe and Matt Stankiewich; one player also got UDFA Zach Sudfeld.
    • In 2014, with 23 players (again, totalling about the same number of picks we collectively had this year), 7 people ID'd third round choice Dominique Easley, two (@Mugsy's Jock and @Jeff Van GULLY) correctly picked Jon Halapio, three (including @SMU_Sox) got UDFA Jeremy Deering, and one got UDFA Steven Houston.
    • .In 2016, five people picked 3rd rounder Cyrus Jones "correctly," one got fourth-rounder Malcolm Mitchell, one got UDFA Bryce Williams.
    • In 2017, we only had 11 players, but the Pats draft must have been easier to call. Four people got 3rd rounder Derek Rivers, 3 got 3rd rounder Antonio Garcia, four got 4th rounder Deatrich Wise, three got 6th rounder Conor McDermott, . Two got UDFA Josh Williams, two got UDFA Max Rich, one each got UDFAs Harvey Langhi, Damarius Travis, and D.J. Killings.
    • In 2018, we had 15 players with 20 picks each, about 60% of this year's total picks. It was also a tough year to predict, with two people getting Sony Michel right, and one picking Isaiah Wynn
Thank you for this summary. As more folks like SMU exist, there are less likely players that are 'unheard of', and the ability for knowledgeable folks to guess which players are even under reasonable consideration for the Pats is higher. Combine that with competition for the same players, other unknown variables and this drafting thing is hard - guessing team results is even more difficult.

Kudo's to those who managed to land a dart on the board.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2009
7,982
Dallas
We probably have one more day to wait as the dust clears. By tomorrow they should be done with UDFAs. They still sometimes have transactions in May and exchange one UDFA for another but for the purposes of the contest tomorrow is a good cutoff.