Team defense

[Jerry’s Curl]

The Sox haven’t committed an error in 8 games and are the only team in baseball without an error. We know the outfield defense is top-notch but are you surprised by the infield defense so far (notably Devers and Hanley?) Nunez has made the routine play but has missed some plays that Pedroia could have made. Will this be one of the top defensive units all season or has the first 8 games been an aberration?

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Errors and lack of errors isn't really the best way to identify elite defense anymore. Range Factor and Zone Ratings and other stats do a better job of that, and it's hard to make blanket statements after just eight games.

We know the OF is historically a good one based on extended play.

We also know the infield is historically average at best. Hanley looked decent out there in 2016 and he looks decent out there so far. Devers is young and can learn to play better than he did in 2017. Xander can learn better positioning to get to more balls. Nunez seems to be what he is, and that's a bit scary.


My guess is that over the course of the season these guys will be what they are and that Pedroia's return will help the infield become better defensively.

 

[5dice]

Some Fangraphs rankings as of today in this year’s small sample: 25th in RZR, 18th in UZR, 27th in DRS at -7. So, not good with zones, and bad at defensive runs saved.

As LR just said, over time, numbers will bear out that the OF is a good to great unit. Infield will be average at best, to be improved by a player with great numbers in Pedroia replacing a negative fielder like Nunez.

Jerry Curl, you should check out Fangraphs for a better understanding of what drives defense aside from errors.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=8,d

 

[Byrdbrain]

As has already been stated the lack of errors is absolutely not an indication of an "elite defensive unit", that sort of statement is expected on broadcasts but we should be better than that here.

 

[Max Power]

Some Fangraphs rankings as of today in this year’s small sample: 25th in RZR, 18th in UZR, 27th in DRS at -7. So, not good with zones, and bad at defensive runs saved.

It seems strange that a team that has only given up 19 runs on the season can be 7 runs below average on defense.

 

[DJnVa]

At the very least, their range is what it is, and at least they aren't making errors with what they *do* get to. That's still good.

 

[BaseballJones]

As has already been stated the lack of errors is absolutely not an indication of an "elite defensive unit", that sort of statement is expected on broadcasts but we should be better than that here.

That's all totally true. But there's something to be said for not screwing up routine plays. There's definite value in that.

At the very least, their range it was it is, and at least they aren't making errors with what they *do* get to. That's still good.

Yep. Totally agree.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

It seems strange that a team that has only given up 19 runs on the season can be 7 runs below average on defense.

From Fangraphs DRS explanation page:

The other thing to remember is that DRS isn’t going to work well in small sample sizes, especially a couple of months or less. Once you get to one and three-year samples, it’s a relatively solid metric but defensive itself is quite variable so you need a good amount of data for the metrics to become particularly useful. There’s plenty more to say about this issue, but that’s for another entry. In general, DRS isn’t perfect because it doesn’t factor in shifts, positioning, and can’t perfectly measure everything it needs to, but it’s still among the best options out there.

The 2018 season is so young that no metrics-based analysis will be valid. It’s fair to observe, but not draw conclusions — personally, I think it’s great that Devers appears to be reaping rewards in arm accuracy from having sown in spring training the seeds of improving his footwork.

However, this is an observation, not an analysis. He might average out throughout the season to have the same issues he did last season... the relevant factor may be something other than improved footwork by a young player. But we can’t confirm the analysis through metrics, yet.

 

[Jerry’s Curl]

As has already been stated the lack of errors is absolutely not an indication of an "elite defensive unit", that sort of statement is expected on broadcasts but we should be better than that here.

“Elite” may a bit strong, since the infield hasn’t gotten to some balls that other infielders may have but the throwing has been on point and they aren’t botching the routine play so there has to be some value there. Cora really worked on his infield defense in spring training. 8 games is a small, perhaps irrelevant sample size but the early defensive play has been a positive even with Nunez at second.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

It seems strange that a team that has only given up 19 runs on the season can be 7 runs below average on defense.

This is probably mostly SSS on the defensive metrics, but it might also be explainable by the fact that the Sox' LOB% of 82.5% is 2nd best in the AL, behind only the Astros. Sox pitchers lead MLB in the major win probability metrics: WPA, RE24, WPA/LI. They've been pitching best when it counts most. And they easily lead the AL in lowest XBH%, both as a percentage of PA and of base hits. As a logical result of that, they are tied with Seattle for fewest man on third, <2 out situations in MLB.

All of that makes up for some so-so infield play.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

“Elite” may a bit strong, since the infield hasn’t gotten to some balls that other infielders may have but the throwing has been on point and they aren’t botching the routine play so there has to be some value there. Cora really worked on his infield defense in spring training. 8 games is a small, perhaps irrelevant sample size but the early defensive play has been a positive even with Nunez at second.

Bogaerts’ throwing has not been on point, especially following double-play feeds from Nunez. It just doesn’t show up on the scoreboard because (a) you can’t assume the double play, and (b) Hanley’s actually done some spiffy glove-work with tags when Bogaerts’ throws have pulled him off the bag.

Considering Bogaerts’ arm and Nunez’s all-around game, and how hard 3B is to field in general, this team could easily have 4-5 errors. Probably more.

But, it’s baseball and things have just broken right for the team over the first week. Which luck is great, and should be appreciated. But not extrapolated into a narrative it can’t sustain over the whole season.

This team — aside from the BBB outfield — is not elite defensively. And it won’t be when Pedroia returns, either.

 

[rotundlio]

This team — aside from the BBB outfield — is not elite defensively.

This team led the league in defensive runs saved and composite defense last season.

They were only league-average in terms of "error runs," though.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Today's fourth inning is a great example of why errors are a terrible way of judging defense.

 

[Jerry’s Curl]

JDM’s poor OF play is resulting in injuries to other players. He needs to DH in all A.L. games.

 

[uncannymanny]

He threw the ball into the dugout?

 

[Bigpupp]

JDM’s poor OF play is resulting in injuries to other players. He needs to DH in all A.L. games.

I'm going to need an explanation on this. What did JDM do that caused an injury?

 

[Byrdbrain]

Your original take has been deservedly mocked, this take is worse.
JDM is a poor outfielder, this was known. That said JDMs poor throw wasn't why X got hurt, the injury was self inflicted.

 

[Jerry’s Curl]

Your original take has been deservedly mocked, this take is worse.
JDM is a poor outfielder, this was known. That said JDMs poor throw wasn't why X got hurt, the injury was self inflicted.

Should I be afraid of being mocked? With all do respect you are being a little condescending to a newer member.

 

[Reverend]

Should I be afraid of being mocked? With all do respect you are being a little condescending to a newer member.

You should be afraid of saying things that are mock worthy; whether they are mocked or not is another issue.

I'm not huge on the mock people even if they deserve it thing, but there is an embedded discussion in this thread that should suggest to you that while your interest and enthusiasm is appreciated, there is also a learning curve to the game and if you would like to climb it, this is a place full of people happy and eager to help.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Should I be afraid of being mocked? With all do respect you are being a little condescending to a newer member.

Is respect really do?

 

[Byrdbrain]

Should I be afraid of being mocked? With all do respect you are being a little condescending to a newer member.

A)You aren't a member, you are a lurker. It is very different.
B)Rule #1 around here is don't suck, if you suck mocking ensues.

I've actually held back on commenting on some of your posts because I don't want to pile on too much. I usually leave that to E5.

 

[Byrdbrain]

You should be afraid of saying things that are mock worthy; whether they are mocked or not is another issue.

I'm not huge on the mock people even if they deserve it thing, but there is an embedded discussion in this thread that should suggest to you that while your interest and enthusiasm is appreciated, there is also a learning curve to the game and if you would like to climb it, this is a place full of people happy and eager to help.

This is a better answer than mine, I like the enthusiasm as well.

 

[Jerry’s Curl]

N/M

 

[Reverend]

Mod, please lock this thread.

Hmm...

 

[richgedman'sghost]

Who gave Jerry's Curl the right to request anything? On topic.. although the Sox have made no errors, there has been lack of range at second base and by JDM. Luckily it has not cost the team any games yet...

 

[nvalvo]

Tzu-Wei? Holt? Nunez?

 

[The Gray Eagle]

If X goes to the DL, then Two-Way will be called up. He's clearly better defensively at SS than either Nunez or Holt.

If X doesn't go to the DL then they will probably have Nunez play SS and Holt play 2B. I'd be pretty surprised if X didn't go on the DL, but we'll see.

 

[Rasputin]

If X goes to the DL, then Two-Way will be called up. He's clearly better defensively at SS than either Nunez or Holt.

If X doesn't go to the DL then they will probably have Nunez play SS and Holt play 2B. I'd be pretty surprised if X didn't go on the DL, but we'll see.

I would like to think that he's either going to play on Tuesday or be on the DL. I've had more than enough of this thing where they sit around and wait a few days and it keeps lingering and next thing you know they've been playing with a short bench for a week.

I'd really like him to wake up tomorrow and feel like playing two.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

If X doesn't go to the DL then they will probably have Nunez play SS and Holt play 2B. I'd be pretty surprised if X didn't go on the DL, but we'll see.

If that were the plan (Nunez to SS, Holt to 2B), wouldn't they have done that today?

 

[PaulinMyrBch]

I can’t figure Holt’s role on this team. He’s clearly up in weight from last year, hit .200 then, coming off concussion issues, and he’s our utility. If X is out, that puts him in middle infield, maybe he’ll prove to be the guy who doesn’t lose range when he gains weight, but I’ll wait to see that. If his bat isn’t the driver behind his place on the roster, I’d have to figure his versatility is the reason. But if he’s truly up in weight, then half of his versatility is shot. I’d much rather have Marrero at our disposal if X is down for any length of time.

 

[HowBoutDemSox]

The manner in which baseball people evaluate players' fielding performance—adding up their errors, and applauding the guy with the fewest—struck him as an outrage. "What is an error?" he asked. "It is, without exception, the only major statistic in sports which is a record of what an observer thinks should have been accomplished. It's a moral judgment, really, in the peculiar quasi-morality of the locker room.... Basketball scorers count mechanical errors, but those are a record of objective facts: team A has the ball, then team B has the ball.... But the fact of a baseball error is that no play has been made but that the scorer thinks it should have. It is, uniquely, a record of opinions."

James went on to explain that the concept of an error, like many baseball concepts, was tailored to an earlier, very different game. Errors had been invented in the late 1850s, when fielders didn't wear gloves, the outfield went unmowed and the infield ungroomed, and the ball was bashed around until it was lopsided. In 1860, a simple pop fly was an adventure. Any ball hit more than a few feet from a fielder on leave from the Civil War was unplayable. Under those circumstances, James conceded, it might have made some kind of sense to judge a fielder by his ability to cope with balls hit right at him. But a century later the statistic was still being used, unaided by any other, when anyone with eyes could see that balls hit at big league players were a trivial detail in a bigger picture. A talent for avoiding obvious failure was no great trait in a big league baseball player; the easiest way not to make an error was to be too slow to reach the ball in the first place. After all, wrote James, "you have to do something right to get an error; even if the ball is hit right at you, then you were standing in the right place to begin with."

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I can’t figure Holt’s role on this team. He’s clearly up in weight from last year, hit .200 then, coming off concussion issues, and he’s our utility. If X is out, that puts him in middle infield, maybe he’ll prove to be the guy who doesn’t lose range when he gains weight, but I’ll wait to see that. If his bat isn’t the driver behind his place on the roster, I’d have to figure his versatility is the reason. But if he’s truly up in weight, then half of his versatility is shot. I’d much rather have Marrero at our disposal if X is down for any length of time.

Well, if nothing else, Holt is at least Tuesday’s starting SS.

Aside from injuries, the 2018 squad is proving to be not otherwise easily improved by utility players like him or Swihart.

 

[JimD]

I can’t figure Holt’s role on this team. He’s clearly up in weight from last year, hit .200 then, coming off concussion issues, and he’s our utility. If X is out, that puts him in middle infield, maybe he’ll prove to be the guy who doesn’t lose range when he gains weight, but I’ll wait to see that. If his bat isn’t the driver behind his place on the roster, I’d have to figure his versatility is the reason. But if he’s truly up in weight, then half of his versatility is shot. I’d much rather have Marrero at our disposal if X is down for any length of time.

His role is 'Guy that Dave Dombrowski can't trade because of his $2.2 million salary'.

 

[PaulinMyrBch]

His role is 'Guy that Dave Dombrowski can't trade because of his $2.2 million salary'.

Well if his salary made him impossible to trade then the DFA/waivers route should have been available, which would have Marrero at short and Brock in AAA proving he can hit post concussions. I didn't have that much of an objection in ST when they made the trade, but I didn't watch many games and didn't realize Brock showed up with some weight on his frame. Hoping for good news on X.

 

[tonyarmasjr]

Could somebody recap the Devers two-error play from last night? The rain delay cut my viewership short. Thanks.

 

[deejsoxfan]

Could somebody recap the Devers two-error play from last night? The rain delay cut my viewership short. Thanks.

Stanton hit an absolute rocket towards third, off the bag a bit, and Devers got eaten up by it. He did keep the hall in front of him and knock it down where he could get to it but then really rushed the throw. I’m not sure the first part was an error...at least judging by what others have gotten away with (Nunez the night before) but the bad throw was definitely one.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Lin looks really really slick at SS.

With Nunez’s knee barking, I think it’s worth tryinh Holt or Swihart at 2B for two games over the weekend series. Now, I know Bogaerts and Hanley now both being out makes the lineup pretty sparse with that move... but 2017 Nunez is not the guy we’re seeing on the field right now, either.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Lin looks really really slick at SS.

With Nunez’s knee barking, I think it’s worth tryinh Holt or Swihart at 2B for two games over the weekend series. Now, I know Bogaerts and Hanley now both being out makes the lineup pretty sparse with that move... but 2017 Nunez is not the guy we’re seeing on the field right now, either.

Based on one grounder he fielded (very well)? Based on what I saw last year, he should be far better than Nunez, better than Holt too, but one play?

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Based on one grounder he fielded (very well)? Based on what I saw last year, he should be far better than Nunez, better than Holt too, but one play?

Also spring training games.

Of course, there’s viewer bias. It may be more that Holt is just a step slower this year after bulking up.

 

[Byrdbrain]

Stanton hit an absolute rocket towards third, off the bag a bit, and Devers got eaten up by it. He did keep the hall in front of him and knock it down where he could get to it but then really rushed the throw. I’m not sure the first part was an error...at least judging by what others have gotten away with (Nunez the night before) but the bad throw was definitely one.

I was surprised that was 2 errors as well, that ball was a bullet.

I also agree it is time to play Lin though at this point they may have no choice as Nunez may not be able to go.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Also spring training games.

Of course, there’s viewer bias. It may be more that Holt is just a step slower this year after bulking up.

OK, I didn't watch any spring training. Last year when he was called up, Lin looked pretty good defensively.

 

[sean1562]

Lin being good defensively was always his scouting report, no? At the very least, better than Holt and Nunez, and the value of a competent defensive SS is just as high as a good CF, right? Glad to see him get the start tonight

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Didn’t know where else to put this:

That tarp play by Betts last night. Crazy ground rule. Ball is dead if it’s “lodged” (GRD).

So, what happens if the fielder doesn’t grab the ball? Does the runner keep running for an inside-the-park? Does the umpire then walk over and try to determine what “lodged” means? (Gee, I can retrieve it with 2 fingers - it’s not lodged, score the home run. Gosh, I need to use my entire grip - lodged, ground rule double).

Sounds like a disaster waiting to happen.

In any case, what a head’s up play by Betts.

 

[Marbleheader]

 

[Max Power]

The StatCast graphic on the scoreboard at the game said there was a 0% probability of that catch.

 

[Byrdbrain]

Didn’t know where else to put this:

That tarp play by Betts last night. Crazy ground rule. Ball is dead if it’s “lodged” (GRD).

So, what happens if the fielder doesn’t grab the ball? Does the runner keep running for an inside-the-park? Does the umpire then walk over and try to determine what “lodged” means? (Gee, I can retrieve it with 2 fingers - it’s not lodged, score the home run. Gosh, I need to use my entire grip - lodged, ground rule double).

Sounds like a disaster waiting to happen.

In any case, what a head’s up play by Betts.

They generally would take the fielders word for it, as I said yesterday it would be similar to a ball in the Ivy at Wrigley. Mookie puts his hand up there the ball is dead and Jones gets 2nd base.

 

[ledsox]

The StatCast graphic on the scoreboard at the game said there was a 0% probability of that catch.

Nice! I was wondering about that. So on the 5 star scale I guess it would be a 6 star catch.

 

[Reverend]

Nice! I was wondering about that. So on the 5 star scale I guess it would be a 6 star catch.

I wonder how the advanced statistics count that. Is it like dark matter? He's exerting an opposition force on the possibilities of baseball and that's the only way to explain the observance of an out?

 

[simplicio]

Negative reaction times perhaps?

 

[Reverend]

Negative reaction times perhaps?

Midichlorian count?