Strat-O-Matic season simulation- We win the opener!

Coachster

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Jul 3, 2009
5,677
New Hampshire
We lose again on a walk-off by Stephen Piscotti off of Barnes. Today was a bullpen game (Chris Mazza got the start). We were never going to solve that 5th starter thing anyway.


Here's the point of doing this. According to the simulation, we're 10-10, 3.5 games behind the Rays. When I played simulation baseball in my rancid youth, Strat-O-Matic and APBA were advertised as giving realistic results. I think 10-10 is about what we expected from the Home Town Team at this point. The hitting has been OK, the pitching is spotty. So yeah.
 

DJnVa

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Dec 16, 2010
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For those interested, Strat is going to do the NBA playoffs starting this weekend.
 

nayrbrey

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Jul 20, 2005
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Driving somewhere most likely
The Tribe starting catcher was none other than our old pal Sandy Leon. He even got a hit. The Cleveland faithful shouldn't get used to that.
Ha, I missed that. That brings up the old discussion of a C hitting against a pitcher that he caught for years, and whether that helps or hurts.
 
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santadevil

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Aug 1, 2006
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ERod goes 7 strong innings and Chablis goes yard as the Sox get back on the winning track 2-0 over old friend Terry Francona and the Tribe.

edit - im leaving the Chablis autocorrect.

Compliments to Major League, which turned 21 this month

JOHN W. HENRY
We're 1/8th into the season, we're
11 and 10, 3.5 games out of first.
Our attendance is just below 0.
That's bad, but not bad enough.

CHAIM BLOOM
Projected over the whole season, we
stand to wind up 3 games over .500
and 28 out of first. That should be
bad enough for anybody.

JWH
We finished 19 out last year and
still drew 2,924,627. With school
out for the the pandemic, attendance is
unlikely to rise. Plus, this team is
showing signs of improvement. I didn't
think we'd win 15 games all year after
the Betts trade. Any ideas?

CB
On how we can get worse?
(sarcastic)
How about a series of fines for good
play? Maybe a $30,000 bonus to the
guy chosen Least Valuable Player.

JWH
This is no laughing matter, Chaim.
(pause)
I think maybe the problem is we're
coddling these guys too much.

As Chaim wonders what he means by that, we...

CUT TO:

BOSTON LOGAN INTERNATION AIRPORT - DAY


We PICK UP Vazques, JBJ, E-Rod and the other Red Sox coming
down a corridor to their plane.

JBJ
What's with this? We never leave
from this terminal.

VAZQUES
Maybe the other one's jammed up.

They come through the gate where they see two American
Airlines jets on the tarmac.


E-Rod
(pointing to the jets)
Which one is ours?

GATEMAN
That one.

The gateman points off-screen. Suddenly, an old DC-3, with
the Red Sox logo on it, pulls into frame.
 
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Coachster

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Jul 3, 2009
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New Hampshire
Back over .500 with an extra-inning win at Fenway. Martin Perez is crappy, but nearly everyone in the pen makes an appearance and holds the Tribe. New friend Kevin Pillar drives in the winner after a lead-off double by Michael Chavis to open the bottom of the 12th.

 

RIrooter09

Alvin
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Jul 31, 2008
5,033
This season feels eerily realistic. An up and down struggle where they never really get on a streak, similar to 2019.
 

geoflin

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Feb 26, 2004
426
Melrose MA
This season feels eerily realistic. An up and down struggle where they never really get on a streak, similar to 2019.
Maybe because StratOMatic is using 2019 stats but 2020 rosters. Pretty much what was expected this year.
 

Ford Frick's Asterisk

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May 5, 2017
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Baseball Reference (using Out of the Park Baseball) is also doing a simulated season and has the Red Sox at 8-16 after allowing 57 runs in a 4 game sweep by Cleveland. The big problem I have with their model is B-Ref is making up their own transactions to fill out rosters, so there are a lot of back-end starters and relievers eating innings on rosters of teams they aren't even under contract with (for example, Clay Buccholz just pitched for Cleveland even though everything the Indians have done over the past couple of years shows they aren't going to sign scrap heap veterans to fill short-term holes).

I haven't seen an explanation of how Strat is doing their simulation. Are they simply doing what they've always done and replicating last years numbers or have they created 2020 cards based off some projection system? They're the best there is at realistically replaying what's already happened, but they seem pretty useless at predicting something that hasn't happened yet.
 

Coachster

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Jul 3, 2009
5,677
New Hampshire
We lose to the Jays again. Eovaldi is OK, but Brasier looks like last year's Brasier and takes the loss. FWIW, JDM is currently at .204 and 10D is at .218. Not going to win much with those guys not hitting, although Jose Peraza is at .382, and they are using him in rightfield against lefties to sit JBJ.

We're 14-13, right about where I actually thought we'd be.

 

bluefenderstrat

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Dec 16, 2002
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