Starting Pitching 2019

BaseballJones

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If they wanted to sign someone, here are names still available:

Name: 2018 stats
Dallas Keuchel: 12-11, 3.74 era, 1.31 whip, 6.7 k/9
James Shields: 7-16, 4.53 era, 1.31 whip, 6.8 k/9
Edwin Jackson: 6-3, 3.33 era, 1.22 whip, 6.7 k/9
Yovani Gallardo: 8-8, 6.39 era, 1.63 whip, 5.5 k/9

I mean, not a crazy amount out there, but obviously Keuchel would be helpful (expensive), and Jackson could plug a hole.
 

jon abbey

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Gio Gonzalez will likely be a free agent later today, although the Brewers and Mets and others may be interested also.
 

chawson

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If they wanted to sign someone, here are names still available:

Name: 2018 stats
Dallas Keuchel: 12-11, 3.74 era, 1.31 whip, 6.7 k/9
James Shields: 7-16, 4.53 era, 1.31 whip, 6.8 k/9
Edwin Jackson: 6-3, 3.33 era, 1.22 whip, 6.7 k/9
Yovani Gallardo: 8-8, 6.39 era, 1.63 whip, 5.5 k/9

I mean, not a crazy amount out there, but obviously Keuchel would be helpful (expensive), and Jackson could plug a hole.
Wanna say Jackson re-upped with Oakland?

Gio Gonzalez opted out, so he's an option. Then there's the Tyson Rosses and Homer Baileys of the world who I'd figure bad teams may wanna trade before they turn into pumpkins by July.
 

chawson

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It's too bad we can't acquire a cheap starter like this guy:
In his last 122 IP, he's gone 10-4, 3.09, with an ERA+ of 144.
His stuff doesn't impress many people and he isn't well known-- he's no Big Game James or Yovanni Gallardo or Homer Bailey-- but he has got great results lately.
I don't hate it, especially since he's got a nice little velo uptick this year, but a lot of those great results have come in relief work. Here are the problems with Hector Velazquez entering the rotation full-time as I see them.

1. He's got a 4.95 xFIP working as a starter since 2018.
2. He's only thrown five innings or more three times in his career.
3. I think the starters will be better going forward, but 7 of 12 starts from Sale/ERod/Porcello have failed to go into the 5th inning. They need a long reliever. It wouldn't be that hard to find one, but with Johnson and Wright out, no one besides Hector in the bullpen right now can really go more than one inning (with the possible exception of Walden, but the Sox may be entertaining the idea that he can get meaningful outs).
 

geoduck no quahog

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It seemed to me that Red Sox starters had been throwing an enormous amount of pitches in the first inning (with ramifications), so I went through the game logs and found the following:

First Inning Pitches

Sale: 24 | 26 | 12 | 9 | 23 AVG 18.8
Eovaldi: 22 | 23 | 16 | 11 AVG 18.0
Edro: 31 | 14 | 11 | 26 AVG 20.5
Porcello: 13 | 14 | 24 | 17 AVG 17.0
Price: 10 | 8 | 14 | 22 AVG 13.5
Velazquez: 11 | 16 | 18 AVG 15

I recall consensus being that 15 pitches/inning is the desired maximum, so I've highlighted those in red. Anything 10 or below I've highlighted in blue.

24 starts. 13 of them > 15 pitches. The team is averaging 17.3 pitches/inning to start the game. I actually thought it seemed worse.

Price is clearly the best to date in limiting the amount of pitches in the first inning. Others...not so much.

I think my concern was amplified by the first 3 games (24, 22, 31) and the last 5 games (26, 17, 22, 18, 23) - fidgeting in my seat and thinking, "not again..."

How often can the bullpen be stretched if the starters are going to throw so many first inning pitches? Alternatively, once these numbers go down - the team will probably be going in the right direction.
 

chawson

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Aug 1, 2006
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It seemed to me that Red Sox starters had been throwing an enormous amount of pitches in the first inning (with ramifications), so I went through the game logs and found the following:

First Inning Pitches

Sale: 24 | 26 | 12 | 9 | 23 AVG 18.8
Eovaldi: 22 | 23 | 16 | 11 AVG 18.0
Edro: 31 | 14 | 11 | 26 AVG 20.5
Porcello: 13 | 14 | 24 | 17 AVG 17.0
Price: 10 | 8 | 14 | 22 AVG 13.5
Velazquez: 11 | 16 | 18 AVG 15

I recall consensus being that 15 pitches/inning is the desired maximum, so I've highlighted those in red. Anything 10 or below I've highlighted in blue.

24 starts. 13 of them > 15 pitches. The team is averaging 17.3 pitches/inning to start the game. I actually thought it seemed worse.

Price is clearly the best to date in limiting the amount of pitches in the first inning. Others...not so much.

I think my concern was amplified by the first 3 games (24, 22, 31) and the last 5 games (26, 17, 22, 18, 23) - fidgeting in my seat and thinking, "not again..."

How often can the bullpen be stretched if the starters are going to throw so many first inning pitches? Alternatively, once these numbers go down - the team will probably be going in the right direction.
15 pitches per inning is the desired maximum, but since you're almost always facing a team's best hitters in the first inning, wouldn't it make sense that number would be a bit higher?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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15 is not really the desired maximum. 15 is considered to be an efficient pitch/inning average. 6 innings is the threshold for a quality start, 100/6 = 16.67. AL starters as a whole are averaging about 16.86 pitches per inning so far this season (5.1 innings per start...that's 5 and a tenth, not 5 1/3...average of 86 pitches per start).
 

DirtyWater90

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Nov 26, 2018
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15 is not really the desired maximum. 15 is considered to be an efficient pitch/inning average. 6 innings is the threshold for a quality start, 100/6 = 16.67. AL starters as a whole are averaging about 16.86 pitches per inning so far this season (5.1 innings per start...that's 5 and a tenth, not 5 1/3...average of 86 pitches per start).
15 an inning would equate to 7 innings, 105 pitches, which is what someone should reasonably expect from an ace level pitcher like Sale or Price.
 

rhswanzey

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edit: should be referring to Friday (26th). They picked Josh Smith, who I left out entirely. Then the game got rained out anyway.

Shawaryn and Chandler Shepherd are both lined up to be able to start the 23rd, and since the latter’s already on the 40-man, it may be time for his debut.

If Johnson and/or Wright were healthy, I’d have more faith they’d be able to try Velazquez in the rotation for more than a spot start or two, but they need an actual long man.
They need someone for Saturday (27th). Due to the doubleheader, they'd need to start either Sale or Velazquez on three days rest, and that ain't happening. Well, it might.

Eovaldi was placed on the 10-day. His surgery last season took two full months, but TJ recovery complicated it. I'd guess they would want to avoid bumping him to the 60-day since he could be ready to pitch before he'd be eligible to be activated on the back end.

* Shawaryn last pitched 4/21. Pawtucket doesn't appear to have probables ready. As noted, he'd need a 40-man add.
* Shepherd pitched on 4/23 and is out (3 days). He should be behind Shawaryn anyway, outside of 40-man concerns. He's 26y 8m and really does not look like he can get through a MLB order twice. He'd probably be my first choice for a DFA actually, along with Marco Hernandez.
* Darwinzon is the obvious guy and is lined up on three days after long relief. However, we can't get him back on the roster this quickly without a DL trip from someone else.

How many pitches could you ask out of Lakins in a bullpen game? Other than that, you might be looking at Velazquez on 3 days or Shepherd on 3 days. And in all three scenarios, you lost the long guy from the pen.
 
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Red(s)HawksFan

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15 an inning would equate to 7 innings, 105 pitches, which is what someone should reasonably expect from an ace level pitcher like Sale or Price.
Sale averages 15.5 per inning for his career as a starter. Price 15.75 per inning. So sure, 15 is a reasonable expectation for pitches per inning...for them. But that's not what was being argued. 15 was presented as the desired maximum in general, which isn't that reasonable. If the "ace level" pitchers average between 15 and 16 pitches per inning, that means that even they are going to exceed that threshold as much as they don't. Maximum implies a threshold you don't want or expect them to exceed. If the league average is nearly 17 pitches an inning, I think it's unreasonable to expect all your pitchers to throw a maximum of 15 an inning. The Sox have "aces" but they certainly don't have five of them.
 

BaseballJones

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This is just an incredible stat...summarizes the entire season.

The Red Sox are now 0-6 in games started by Chris Sale.

The games:
L, 12-4 at Sea
L, 1-0 at Oak
L, 7-5 vs Tor
L, 8-0 at NYY
L, 7-4 vs Det
L, 5-2 vs TB

15 runs scored in 6 games (2.5 runs per game).
40 runs allowed in 6 games (6.7 runs per game).

Just absolutely mind-boggling.
 

Sampo Gida

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This is just an incredible stat...summarizes the entire season.

The Red Sox are now 0-6 in games started by Chris Sale.

The games:
L, 12-4 at Sea
L, 1-0 at Oak
L, 7-5 vs Tor
L, 8-0 at NYY
L, 7-4 vs Det
L, 5-2 vs TB

15 runs scored in 6 games (2.5 runs per game).
40 runs allowed in 6 games (6.7 runs per game).

Just absolutely mind-boggling.
Well,looking at the bright side the team is 11-11 in non Sale starts

One QS in 6 starts,a meaningless stat that rewards mediocrity. It can only get better. Maybe the last 5 shut out innings are a good sign as we leave the miserable monthof April
 

BaseballJones

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Well,looking at the bright side the team is 11-11 in non Sale starts

One QS in 6 starts,a meaningless stat that rewards mediocrity. It can only get better. Maybe the last 5 shut out innings are a good sign as we leave the miserable monthof April
Yeah, 11-11 in non-Sale starts is actually not horrible. If the Sox were even 4-2 in Sale's 6 starts, they'd be 15-15 right now, and in not terrible shape.
 

BaseballJones

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Going into this year, Sale had 40 QS in 59 starts (67.8%). This year, he has 2 QS in 6 starts (33.3%).

(I think a QS is 6.0 ip or more, with 3 er allowed or fewer)
 

charlieoscar

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Since 1974, there have been only two seasons in which the starting pitchers for all teams had a winning percentage of at least .500, 2005 and 2008. In fact, last season, starters had the lowest winning percentage, .484, of that time period, and this season is starting out even worse. Taken from Retrosheet Game Logs
 

DirtyWater90

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Sale (as all the starters) is trending in the right direction. To me, the offense is far more worrying. They are a straight up bad offense.
 

BaseballJones

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A bit OT here, but this article on ESPN.com on Jon Lester's impact on the Cubs:

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26651835/why-jon-lester-chicago-best-free-agent-signing-ever

Kind of depressing that the Sox let him go. He's put up a 3.28 era (126 era+), 1.18 whip, 8.6 k/9 with a 63-32 record (.663), in his time with the Cubs. And in 12 playoff games with Chicago, he's put up a 2.44 era, with a 0.96 whip and 7.7 k/9 line. Just been phenomenal for them.

Of course, the guy seen as the "replacement" for him, David Price, has been nearly as good for Boston, putting up this line: 3.74 era (119 era+), 1.17 whip, 9.1 k/9, with a 40-21 record (.656). And in 9 playoff games with Boston, he's put up a 3.75 era, with a 1.25 whip and an 8.0 k/9 line. So worse playoff numbers than Lester, but last year he was unbelievable, especially his last four appearances (1.37 era, 0.81 whip, 8.7 k/9).
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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A bit OT here, but this article on ESPN.com on Jon Lester's impact on the Cubs:

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26651835/why-jon-lester-chicago-best-free-agent-signing-ever

Kind of depressing that the Sox let him go. He's put up a 3.28 era (126 era+), 1.18 whip, 8.6 k/9 with a 63-32 record (.663), in his time with the Cubs. And in 12 playoff games with Chicago, he's put up a 2.44 era, with a 0.96 whip and 7.7 k/9 line. Just been phenomenal for them.

Of course, the guy seen as the "replacement" for him, David Price, has been nearly as good for Boston, putting up this line: 3.74 era (119 era+), 1.17 whip, 9.1 k/9, with a 40-21 record (.656). And in 9 playoff games with Boston, he's put up a 3.75 era, with a 1.25 whip and an 8.0 k/9 line. So worse playoff numbers than Lester, but last year he was unbelievable, especially his last four appearances (1.37 era, 0.81 whip, 8.7 k/9).
I'm sure Lester is getting a little bump with the move to the NL also....
It's true they blew it with Lester, IMO they could have had him for a long time for $20M per season when they made their original low offer. My only issue with Lester was that he was never a true "ace". He would have some seasons that he would be... others where he was more like a "no. 3". He wasn't in quite the category as Price (up to that season) or other elite pitchers and I was REALLY hoping to land Scherzer! At the time Scherzer seemed like the more likely to be a consistent badass no. 1 ace going forward... to me at least.
 

DirtyWater90

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Nov 26, 2018
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Regular-season Jon Lester had a 110-63 record with the Red Sox. That equates to a .6358 winning percentage or 103 wins for 162 games.
We’ve pretty much moved beyond win/loss record as a way to evaluate pitchers by now. Sale had a worse win% with the White Sox than Lester did here but he was certainly a level or two above Lester as a pitcher.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Sox starting pitchers' collective wOBA allowed has declined in every week since the season started:

.513 3/25-31
.372 4/1-7
.330 4/8-14
.305 4/15-21
.289 4/22-28
.268 4/29-5/5

Since April 15, they have a 3.30 ERA and 3.09 FIP, with a K/9 of 10.9 and a BB/9 of 3.2.
 

brandonchristensen

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Sox starting pitchers' collective wOBA allowed has declined in every week since the season started:

.513 3/25-31
.372 4/1-7
.330 4/8-14
.305 4/15-21
.289 4/22-28
.268 4/29-5/5

Since April 15, they have a 3.30 ERA and 3.09 FIP, with a K/9 of 10.9 and a BB/9 of 3.2.
Considering their spring training, this does make sense.
 

tims4wins

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Anyone else hear these rumors? Sox might be looking to deal for Bumgarner?

http://nesn.com/?p=942388&fbclid=IwAR2QT4n4xBUJ3Mdb9y5m3U1rjUFK3UsAeq61BhV_wa6otLgs0x0vx81PJzs

I can't see it at all. I mean, I can see the link but I can't see the rationale for a deal. And what in the world would Boston have to give up to get him?
I don't think it says anywhere that the Red Sox might be looking to deal for Bumgarner. Olney is just putting together a list of teams that could make sense. And the Sox rank 8th on that list, which is pretty damn low.
 

BaseballJones

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I don't think it says anywhere that the Red Sox might be looking to deal for Bumgarner. Olney is just putting together a list of teams that could make sense. And the Sox rank 8th on that list, which is pretty damn low.
Fair enough. But why would it make sense? If Price returns healthy, why would the Sox need Bumgarner? Especially given what they'd have to trade away (which would likely be prohibitive). Anyway, I didn't know if anyone else had seen this.
 

tims4wins

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Fair enough. But why would it make sense? If Price returns healthy, why would the Sox need Bumgarner? Especially given what they'd have to trade away (which would likely be prohibitive). Anyway, I didn't know if anyone else had seen this.
Because it wasn't a top 5 list so Buster needed a few more teams
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Fair enough. But why would it make sense? If Price returns healthy, why would the Sox need Bumgarner? Especially given what they'd have to trade away (which would likely be prohibitive). Anyway, I didn't know if anyone else had seen this.
National sports writer needs to fill some lines. Oh, I know, let's pick a good starting pitcher on a bad team and make a list of contenders who could trade for them. Looks at standings, pick a bad team's best pitcher, look at standings, pick a list of teams, copy/paste, done. Details? Who needs those?
 

The Racoon

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Is there information about who will start / open the 2 games after Rick?
I had imagined that they use the two off days this week to split up the bullpen games, but can't find news about that.
Related: When is Price expected to be back?
 

mfried

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Is there information about who will start / open the 2 games after Rick?
I had imagined that they use the two off days this week to split up the bullpen games, but can't find news about that.
Related: When is Price expected to be back?
Velazquez tomorrow (Saturday); Sale Sunday. I hope we can win the Sunday game at least.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Probably not going to be a popular take given where the team finished in 2018 but with Houston having some SP issues I'm curious if they would have interest in Porcello. Maybe get Whitley for him straight up? Not sure they would do it but would certainly be a nice piece to build around even though he's struggled in the PCL this year. Porcello isn't coming back and the Sox need to plan for the future while juggling the present.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Probably not going to be a popular take given where the team finished in 2018 but with Houston having some SP issues I'm curious if they would have interest in Porcello. Maybe get Whitley for him straight up? Not sure they would do it but would certainly be a nice piece to build around even though he's struggled in the PCL this year. Porcello isn't coming back and the Sox need to plan for the future while juggling the present.
Probably a bit delusional to think that the Astros are going to trade a consensus top 10 prospect for 2-3 months of Rick Porcello, even if Whitley is struggling a bit right now. But I think it's even more delusional to think that the Red Sox should be trading from their hyper-thin starting pitching when they are trying to get to the post-season themselves.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Probably a bit delusional to think that the Astros are going to trade a consensus top 10 prospect for 2-3 months of Rick Porcello, even if Whitley is struggling a bit right now. But I think it's even more delusional to think that the Red Sox should be trading from their hyper-thin starting pitching when they are trying to get to the post-season themselves.
I see your point and thats obviously true. However end of June comes and the Sox stay on the current path then maybe they become more willing to trade Porcello and take back money on him to get a guy like Whitley. Stranger things have happened.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I see your point and thats obviously true. However end of June comes and the Sox stay on the current path then maybe they become more willing to trade Porcello and take back money on him to get a guy like Whitley. Stranger things have happened.
Current path as in continuing to play .667 ball like they have for the last 30 games and continuing to occupy a playoff spot in the standings? Why would they be selling one of their top four starters in such a case?
 

chrisfont9

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I see your point and thats obviously true. However end of June comes and the Sox stay on the current path then maybe they become more willing to trade Porcello and take back money on him to get a guy like Whitley. Stranger things have happened.
You're basically saying the Sox could make a decision to benefit them in the long run even if it hurts them in the short run. It's not illogical by any means, and some teams might. But most of the Sox' decisions of late have been GFIN-oriented. Also I think they like their chances of keeping Porcello if they feel like they have room. He's not likely to leave unless someone pays him a good deal more.
 

BoSox Rule

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Also Whitley is the BA #5 before this year and isn’t getting traded for 2 or 3 months of Rick Porcello.
 

jon abbey

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And definitely not to one of the other AL powerhouses where if he figures it out he could haunt HOU for the next 5-10 years.
 

FinanceAdvice

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Fair enough. But why would it make sense? If Price returns healthy, why would the Sox need Bumgarner? Especially given what they'd have to trade away (which would likely be prohibitive). Anyway, I didn't know if anyone else had seen this.
Heard from reliable source (related to Dan Haren, Special Pitching Coach for Diamondbacks) that Yes Bumgarner is on the Sox wish list. With an ERA+ 121, FIP of 3.27, Whip of 1.112 and K's to BB 4.17 its worth having but Sox would have to give up too much. My opinion. Not happening and also the SP "SHOULD" turn around.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Heard from reliable source (related to Dan Haren, Special Pitching Coach for Diamondbacks) that Yes Bumgarner is on the Sox wish list. With an ERA+ 121, FIP of 3.27, Whip of 1.112 and K's to BB 4.17 its worth having but Sox would have to give up too much. My opinion. Not happening and also the SP "SHOULD" turn around.
Big fat "duh" to Bumgarner being on the wish list. I imagine he's on everyone's wish list. Whether he's acquirable is the question, and I agree, the price will probably be too high for the Sox to pay.

The starting pitching "should" turn around or "has" turned around? 3.48 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 4.48 K/BB in the month of May for the starting pitchers. If Eovaldi can come back healthy and productive, they should be in great shape in the starting pitching department.
 

FinanceAdvice

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Big fat "duh" to Bumgarner being on the wish list. I imagine he's on everyone's wish list. Whether he's acquirable is the question, and I agree, the price will probably be too high for the Sox to pay.

The starting pitching "should" turn around or "has" turned around? 3.48 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 4.48 K/BB in the month of May for the starting pitchers. If Eovaldi can come back healthy and productive, they should be in great shape in the starting pitching department.
This season reminds me of 2005 with the Sox coming off their first WS title in 86 years. They never seemed to co-ordinate offense, defense and pitching. When offense is hot (last night) pitching sucks and vice versa. Let's hope they turn it around. They are 8 games in lost column out of first. Or it could be reminiscent of the infamous 1978 season. I believe that the Sox had a 10 game lead over the MFY's around early August and ended up in the infamous you know one game play-off. Maybe we can be the 2019 version of the MFY's?
 

Danny_Darwin

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Shawaryn's up. I'm posting this here because I assume he'll slot into the rotation, but the team hasn't said at this point (that I can find, at least)
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Shawaryn's up. I'm posting this here because I assume he'll slot into the rotation, but the team hasn't said at this point (that I can find, at least)
Why would he slot into the rotation? Isn't Eovaldi due back to start any day? Valezquez has been in the bullpen for a little while, hasn't he? I'd prefer to put him in either as a combo-"opener/3 inning BP arm" to see if he can compliment Barnes long term over the season
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Why would he slot into the rotation? Isn't Eovaldi due back to start any day? Valezquez has been in the bullpen for a little while, hasn't he? I'd prefer to put him in either as a combo-"opener/3 inning BP arm" to see if he can compliment Barnes long term over the season
Eovaldi is at least two weeks away. He's supposed to throw a simulated game today and then he'll need to make a rehab start or two before he can be activated and put back in the rotation. If Shawaryn starts (which I agree with DD is a possibility), he likely will take the spot Weber has filled the last couple weeks.