Starting Pitching 2019

Lose Remerswaal

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Why would he slot into the rotation? Isn't Eovaldi due back to start any day? Valezquez has been in the bullpen for a little while, hasn't he? I'd prefer to put him in either as a combo-"opener/3 inning BP arm" to see if he can compliment Barnes long term over the season
Eo hasn't had a rehab session yet
Velazquez is on the IL.
 

Byrdbrain

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If the plan were for him just to start they wouldn't have brought him up to sit until the Weber slot comes up again. They would have called up a stopgap bullpen guy and then called up Shawaryn just before the start.
He'll be in the bullpen short term. If he isn't used before then it is possible they will put him in for Weber, they may also give Weber one more shot at starting and see what happens.
 

bosox79

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Chris Sale's last 11 starts: 2.24 era, 72.1 ip, 44 hits, 16bb/116k, .171/.232/.307 against. WHIP of 0.90.
 

BaseballJones

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Oct 1, 2015
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Anomaly or is there something going on here....

Red Sox' primary starters' ERA and FIP numbers:
Sale: 3.82 era, 2.94 fip (+0.88)
Porcello: 4.52 era, 4.22 fip (+0.30)
Rodriguez: 4.87 era, 4.20 fip (+0.57)
Price: 3.36 era, 2.88 fip (+0.48)

Just for reference, same categories, NYY:
Tanaka: 3.21 era, 3.88 fip (-0.67)
Happ: 5.23 era, 5.48 fip (-0.25)
German: 3.86 era, 4.07 fip (-0.21)
Sabathia: 4.04 era, 5.27 fip (-1.23)
Paxton: 4.34 era, 3.84 fip (+0.50)

So for Boston, every single one of their primary starters has an era that's at least 0.30 worse than their fip (fielding-independent pitching). But for the Yankees, every single one of their starters except Paxton has an era that's at least 0.21 better than their fip. So why are the Yankees' starters outperforming their fip, but Sox' starters are underperforming their fip?
 

Savin Hillbilly

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Jul 10, 2007
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The wrong side of the bridge....
Anomaly or is there something going on here....

Red Sox' primary starters' ERA and FIP numbers:
Sale: 3.82 era, 2.94 fip (+0.88)
Porcello: 4.52 era, 4.22 fip (+0.30)
Rodriguez: 4.87 era, 4.20 fip (+0.57)
Price: 3.36 era, 2.88 fip (+0.48)

Just for reference, same categories, NYY:
Tanaka: 3.21 era, 3.88 fip (-0.67)
Happ: 5.23 era, 5.48 fip (-0.25)
German: 3.86 era, 4.07 fip (-0.21)
Sabathia: 4.04 era, 5.27 fip (-1.23)
Paxton: 4.34 era, 3.84 fip (+0.50)

So for Boston, every single one of their primary starters has an era that's at least 0.30 worse than their fip (fielding-independent pitching). But for the Yankees, every single one of their starters except Paxton has an era that's at least 0.21 better than their fip. So why are the Yankees' starters outperforming their fip, but Sox' starters are underperforming their fip?
It might be partly a park effect (Fenway gooses BABIP, which impacts ERA but not FIP), but perhaps more an artifact of LOB%. This year the Yanks are outperforming the Sox by four percentage points in this category (the top and bottom teams are separated by 10 points, so this is not trivial). Last year both the LOB% and the ERA-FIP differential were reversed (Sox a little better on both counts).
 

BaseballJones

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Oct 1, 2015
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Sale may get it together, but he's been bad lately. Last three starts: 16.2 ip, 7.02 era, 1.62 whip, .964 ops against

Just....terrible (for Sale, I mean....there are plenty of starters who would LOVE that line). And that's against two of the worst teams in baseball: 2 vs Tor and 1 vs ChW.

On the season, 4.04 era, 1.08 whip, and the team is just 6-12 in his starts (he's got a 3-8 record himself).

That's just unfathomable. Think about that. We are just a few days away from the all-star break, more than half the season is done, and Chris F*#$#! Sale has *THREE* wins.

We can talk all we want about the bullpen, but the four main guys in the rotation have these pitching lines so far this season:

Sale: 3-8, 4.04 era, 1.08 whip, 5.9 innings per start (using regular decimals, not thirds of an inning)
Price: 6-2, 3.33 era, 1.14 whip, 5.2 innings per start
Rodriguez: 8-4, 4.79 era, 1.36 whip, 5.7 innings per start
Porcello: 5-7, 5.07 era, 1.40 whip, 5.5 innings per start

I'm sorry. That's just not going to get it done. They don't have a single starter averaging even six innings per start (Sale, obviously, is close). That puts a ton of stress on the bullpen, and the bullpen just doesn't have enough quality arms to sustain that night after night. They essentially get no break. Even when a Sox' starter has a really good game, it's about 6 innings, MAYBE 7. So they have to get 3-4 innings *every* night. It's actually amazing to me that they are 7th in the AL in starters' ERA at 4.67 (9th in bullpen ERA at 4.43).
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Mar 11, 2007
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Sale may get it together, but he's been bad lately. Last three starts: 16.2 ip, 7.02 era, 1.62 whip, .964 ops against

Just....terrible (for Sale, I mean....there are plenty of starters who would LOVE that line). And that's against two of the worst teams in baseball: 2 vs Tor and 1 vs ChW.

On the season, 4.04 era, 1.08 whip, and the team is just 6-12 in his starts (he's got a 3-8 record himself).

That's just unfathomable. Think about that. We are just a few days away from the all-star break, more than half the season is done, and Chris F*#$#! Sale has *THREE* wins.

We can talk all we want about the bullpen, but the four main guys in the rotation have these pitching lines so far this season:

Sale: 3-8, 4.04 era, 1.08 whip, 5.9 innings per start (using regular decimals, not thirds of an inning)
Price: 6-2, 3.33 era, 1.14 whip, 5.2 innings per start
Rodriguez: 8-4, 4.79 era, 1.36 whip, 5.7 innings per start
Porcello: 5-7, 5.07 era, 1.40 whip, 5.5 innings per start

I'm sorry. That's just not going to get it done. They don't have a single starter averaging even six innings per start (Sale, obviously, is close). That puts a ton of stress on the bullpen, and the bullpen just doesn't have enough quality arms to sustain that night after night. They essentially get no break. Even when a Sox' starter has a really good game, it's about 6 innings, MAYBE 7. So they have to get 3-4 innings *every* night. It's actually amazing to me that they are 7th in the AL in starters' ERA at 4.67 (9th in bullpen ERA at 4.43).
Say wha? I can't imagine there's one starter out there, nevermind supposedly one of the best 5 pitchers in the league that would "love that line". Again, there's been almost zero people here calling Sale out this season like they have Price in the past. I realize by advanced metrics and his WHIP he's still doing well and his ERA and W/L should be much better... but he's not as good as the contract, and THAT is what Price got his ass chewed out for here. Additionally, Price got chewed out for not being a "big game" pitcher. Well at this point, in his Sox career, when has Sale been a big game pitcher? His Red Sox playoff record is garbage and he's been tired or injured late in the season and had his numbers start to suffer. Perpetually posters are bending themselves to defend him though. Again, I'm happy he's on the team, but so far this season he hasn't been what we signed him long term for and that should be a concern for anyone over future
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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Dec 19, 2009
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Bottom line: they need to get him right to have a chance this season. If they can't, I'm very concerned about the next few seasons. If he's hurt, even a little, put him on the IL. Not like it would be a new thing for him. If he's not and it really is the Vázquez effect, then bite the bullet and staple Léon to him and hope you get some offensive production from the catcher spot in the game. It's silly that a Cy Young-level pitcher needs a binky to be effective but whatever it takes at this point.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Jan 23, 2009
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Bottom line: they need to get him right to have a chance this season. If they can't, I'm very concerned about the next few seasons. If he's hurt, even a little, put him on the IL. Not like it would be a new thing for him. If he's not and it really is the Vázquez effect, then bite the bullet and staple Léon to him and hope you get some offensive production from the catcher spot in the game. It's silly that a Cy Young-level pitcher needs a binky to be effective but whatever it takes at this point.
The so-called "Vazquez effect" seems to be the hot topic today but last night was the first time Vaz has caught Sale in over a month (5/19) and only the third such pairing since Leon was recalled. Sale's been less than stellar no matter who's catching him of late. Blaming Vazquez seems short-sighted and unreasonable to me. Something is off with Sale. Period.
 

BaseballJones

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Oct 1, 2015
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Say wha? I can't imagine there's one starter out there, nevermind supposedly one of the best 5 pitchers in the league that would "love that line".
LOL that's so my bad. I meant to put that phrase (it was a post-post edit) at Sale's SEASON line, not the line the past three games.

Again, there's been almost zero people here calling Sale out this season like they have Price in the past. I realize by advanced metrics and his WHIP he's still doing well and his ERA and W/L should be much better... but he's not as good as the contract, and THAT is what Price got his ass chewed out for here. Additionally, Price got chewed out for not being a "big game" pitcher. Well at this point, in his Sox career, when has Sale been a big game pitcher? His Red Sox playoff record is garbage and he's been tired or injured late in the season and had his numbers start to suffer. Perpetually posters are bending themselves to defend him though. Again, I'm happy he's on the team, but so far this season he hasn't been what we signed him long term for and that should be a concern for anyone over future
 

Green Monster

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The so-called "Vazquez effect" seems to be the hot topic today but last night was the first time Vaz has caught Sale in over a month (5/19) and only the third such pairing since Leon was recalled. Sale's been less than stellar no matter who's catching him of late. Blaming Vazquez seems short-sighted and unreasonable to me. Something is off with Sale. Period.
Agree 100%....Vazquez is one of the bright spots for the 2019 Red Sox......Less Vazquez in not the answer
 

Savin Hillbilly

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Jul 10, 2007
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The wrong side of the bridge....
Sale may get it together, but he's been bad lately. Last three starts: 16.2 ip, 7.02 era, 1.62 whip, .964 ops against

Just....terrible (for Sale, I mean....there are plenty of starters who would LOVE that line).
Um, no, there aren't. (Were you thinking of his season line, which you didn't include?)

One source of concern with Sale is that he's getting tagged for the long ball so much more often. Of course this is a league-wide thing, but it's hitting Sale worse than most: his HR/FB is more than 30% above his career average, while MLB as a whole is only up a little over 20% from the leaguewide average over the same time period. And I think this may be because.....

His command of the strike zone is abysmal.
"Abysmal" is a little harsh, but I think you're right. I did a little poking around on Brooks this morning. Sale's fastball command to RHH is noticeably off. In 2017 (which I'm using as a proxy for "good Sale" because the data from 2018 are going to be mucked up by weird post-injury pseudo-Sale), he threw his fastball to RHH overwhelmingly up and in:



In 2019, that's still true, but notice the difference:



More of his up-and-in fastballs to RHH are ending up either down into the belt-high region (where the hitter can go to town on them) or in off the plate (where the hitter is not tempted to chase, thus extending his pitch count).

And it's showing in the results. His slugging percentage allowed to RHH on fastballs in the up/in half of the strike zone (i.e. top row + left column + middle-middle) was .393 in 2017; so far this year, it's .537. While part of this may be reduced velocity, I suspect the location issues are playing a role as well.
 

Plympton91

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Oct 19, 2008
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The Red Sox used an entirely different strategy to get their starters prepared for the season, and it appears to be having season long effects. You could say that by now, they should have “caught up” but maybe it’s not that easy? How many of the pitchers who’ve held out all winter over the past couple seasons and signed late in spring training have ended up having bad years? A lot. That’s essentially the schedule the Sox imposed on their starters.

Another factor could be the reverse synergy with the minor league quality bullpen. Maybe Sox starters are trying to compensate for the lack of quality relief pitching by doing thing they think will help them pitch later in games. But, those adjustments aren’t working.

It is curious that the effect is almost team wide, however. That raises the likelihood that the malady is systemic rather than individual idiosyncrasies.