Sports Cards Mania

BernieRicoBoomer

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Sep 20, 2007
800
Bound Brook, NJ
Is it true that 2022 Topps cards come out today? Would I find any at say...Target? Or am I just wasting my time looking around? I have been out of collecting for a very long time and I get the idea that it's not as easy to just buy packs.
 

Bongorific

Thinks he’s clever
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
7,668
Balboa Towers
Is it true that 2022 Topps cards come out today? Would I find any at say...Target? Or am I just wasting my time looking around? I have been out of collecting for a very long time and I get the idea that it's not as easy to just buy packs.
You can buy hobby boxes on Topps website right now. It’ll probably sell out rather quickly.
 

BernieRicoBoomer

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2007
800
Bound Brook, NJ
Local hobby shops should have it, but there’s a markup. Keep checking target and Walmart online as they should have blaster boxes and packs eventually
Thanks...there is a hobby shop on my way home so I'll check that out tonight. Then at some point I have to figure out all the different versions of cards and other inserts. Seems to be way more complicated these days, but fun.
 

Tim Salmon

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Oct 24, 2005
2,922
I still have a hard time wrapping my head around the economics and trends. There's currently a 2022 Topps Series 1 20-case player break on eBay. Those cases would retail for around $29,000 without a volume discount, right? The bidding for the Wander Franco spot alone is at $8,600 with 6 hours to go.

I understand that the 2022 Topps Franco will be marked as a "Rookie Card," even though he was featured in Bowman Chrome three years ago. And I'm vaguely aware that collectors draw a distinction between a true "Rookie Card" and a "Prospect" card. What I don't understand is why collectors care enough to shell out big money for an "RC," when the same player has already appeared on a sister "1st Bowman" product while wearing the same uniform for the same organization.
 

Traut

lost his degree
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Jul 20, 2005
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I still have a hard time wrapping my head around the economics and trends. There's currently a 2022 Topps Series 1 20-case player break on eBay. Those cases would retail for around $29,000 without a volume discount, right? The bidding for the Wander Franco spot alone is at $8,600 with 6 hours to go.

I understand that the 2022 Topps Franco will be marked as a "Rookie Card," even though he was featured in Bowman Chrome three years ago. And I'm vaguely aware that collectors draw a distinction between a true "Rookie Card" and a "Prospect" card. What I don't understand is why collectors care enough to shell out big money for an "RC," when the same player has already appeared on a sister "1st Bowman" product while wearing the same uniform for the same organization.
For the life of me, none of it makes any sense. You can buy the rarest of David Ortiz rookies PSA 10 for 25% of what a bidding spot for Wander Franco is going for.
 

deanx0

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Dec 7, 2004
2,284
Orlando, FL
Spent $240 on a Jumbo Box with the 1 auto and the 2 relics. I will say their thing of making fake relics (like the City pride flags) is annoying. My auto was blah--Trey Mancini--although it was numbered to 50. I did get one regular Franco and one of his 87 variants, so there's that.

I also have been putting my cards in an access database, so I do appreciate how clean the design on the back is for readability of the name and card number. Last year's design was horrid.
 

Tim Salmon

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 24, 2005
2,922
For the life of me, none of it makes any sense. You can buy the rarest of David Ortiz rookies PSA 10 for 25% of what a bidding spot for Wander Franco is going for.
The Wander spot alone ended up going for over $12K, or around 40% of what all 20 cases would cost. I might watch the YouTube breaks out of morbid curiosity, just to see how the math works out with base rookies versus short prints/autos.
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
37,370
I still have a hard time wrapping my head around the economics and trends. There's currently a 2022 Topps Series 1 20-case player break on eBay. Those cases would retail for around $29,000 without a volume discount, right? The bidding for the Wander Franco spot alone is at $8,600 with 6 hours to go.

I understand that the 2022 Topps Franco will be marked as a "Rookie Card," even though he was featured in Bowman Chrome three years ago. And I'm vaguely aware that collectors draw a distinction between a true "Rookie Card" and a "Prospect" card. What I don't understand is why collectors care enough to shell out big money for an "RC," when the same player has already appeared on a sister "1st Bowman" product while wearing the same uniform for the same organization.
I personally think that's overpriced for Franco, but in a 20 case break, you're expecting north of 100 Wander Franco cards. And if you hit say, one of the acetates numbered to /10, you're probably tripling your money on one card alone. Not sure if this link will work, but here are some recent sales of Franco cards on Ebay from the product.

https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_from=R40&_nkw=2022+Topps+Series+1+Wander+Franco&_sacat=0&rt=nc&LH_Sold=1&LH_Complete=1

Image variations for $500+, the acetate for tens of thousands, each base rookie around $20 (though I suspect this will fall in short order as cards flood the market). Here is a link to ones currently for sale, with the mother and father's day variations looking for around 5k.

https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_from=R40&_nkw=2022+Topps+Series+1+Wander+Franco&_sacat=0&rt=nc

There are very few folks collecting cards nowadays like we did as kids. It is straight up gambling, and as someone who umm, likes to gamble, I understand it, but this hobby is not for the feint of heart anymore.

Layton sports cards did their annual 300 box, football, Super Bowl break on Saturday. Each entry got a random team. Boxes went back 10 years, but included a ton from Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, etc. rookie years. Each spot sold for $14,499.00. So total outlay was around $450,000 for the break. Someone hit a Josh Allen RPA from National Treasures, that depending on grading can go from anywhere from 30k raw to 100k as a gem mint. The Bengals killed it, hitting a Joe Burrow 1/1 Laundry Tag RPA from XR. A Randy Moss rookie, gem mint 10 went and on and on.

Here is the break (yes, it's 12 hours long): View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iiZzopW6anw


Here is a recap of just the hits from the break: View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FhNXVu6agEM
 

LogansDad

Member
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Nov 15, 2006
22,009
Alamogordo
Picked up a Series 1 hobby today. Found a new shop that opened a couple months ago, seems like a nice guy, so I figured I'd support him. The box was kind of awful, though (obviously not his fault, LOL).

Did get a base Wander. The auto was an 87 Topps Zack Short. Only serials were a chrome green 87 Sammy Long #/99 and a Nicky Lopez #/2022. And the only real "hit" was a Kyle Muller short print, which is actually a pretty sweet card.

Kind of a disappointing box, overall, but the cards are much better than the 2021's.
 

Traut

lost his degree
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Jul 20, 2005
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For @Deathofthebambino and others -

Is the whole gambling thing basically you pay 9k for a chance at some rare Wander Franco or other prospect rookie -you hope to hit - and then you hope Franco is amazing and you have the next Mike Trout 1/1 rookie?

Some of the rarest and most highly graded David Ortiz cards go for $2500 or so.

Is the difference because we know that no Ortiz card can become the Trout card?
 

ElcaballitoMVP

Member
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Nov 19, 2008
3,672
For @Deathofthebambino and others -

Is the whole gambling thing basically you pay 9k for a chance at some rare Wander Franco or other prospect rookie -you hope to hit - and then you hope Franco is amazing and you have the next Mike Trout 1/1 rookie?

Some of the rarest and most highly graded David Ortiz cards go for $2500 or so.

Is the difference because we know that no Ortiz card can become the Trout card?
You're hoping for a whole bunch of Wander cards, including some rare ones. You can flip them right now and make a profit. DotB basically outlines the idea in his post a couple posts up. And if you happen to land a 1/1 Wander, you can basically name your price.

Personally, I'd never take the risk. Just too much money and too much risk. But people with money to blow will do it and hope they hit big.

And Ortiz isn't the best example. He was never really considered the best player in the game, which is what Trout is and what Wander's ceiling is. A SS who hits in the middle of your lineup for average, power, steals some bases and gets on base. If he gets hurt or doesn't reach that ceiling, you're in trouble, but if he stays healthy and reaches it, you're sitting on a gold mine.
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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Jan 2, 2006
8,848
NJ
You can pretty much sell any of the rare top prospects cards for more than most of any of the actual HOF players cards. It’s craziness.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Jan 13, 2021
5,250
It’s all going to crash, it has to. A year ago, the hype was all about guys like Alec Bohm, Jo Adell, Joey Bart, etc…all of these cards for a guy like Franco seem to have the best case scenarios baked in without recognizing the downside risk. Like, what’s the most realistic scenario for a career for a guy like Marcelo Mayer and how does that impact the price of his cards that are now going for thousands? What if he’s just Brandon Crawford?

I also find the # of cards and the varieties (short prints, etc) impossible to follow. That being said, I’ve been buying some stuff and find it addicting even if my ROI is awful.
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
37,370
For @Deathofthebambino and others -

Is the whole gambling thing basically you pay 9k for a chance at some rare Wander Franco or other prospect rookie -you hope to hit - and then you hope Franco is amazing and you have the next Mike Trout 1/1 rookie?

Some of the rarest and most highly graded David Ortiz cards go for $2500 or so.

Is the difference because we know that no Ortiz card can become the Trout card?
I'll get into this more in depth when I'm not hammered (PC Friars won the Big East baby). Bottom line, nobody spending real money right now is "investing" for the long haul. This is all short term gambling right now.
 

Traut

lost his degree
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Jul 20, 2005
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It’s all going to crash, it has to. A year ago, the hype was all about guys like Alec Bohm, Jo Adell, Joey Bart, etc…all of these cards for a guy like Franco seem to have the best case scenarios baked in without recognizing the downside risk. Like, what’s the most realistic scenario for a career for a guy like Marcelo Mayer and how does that impact the price of his cards that are now going for thousands? What if he’s just Brandon Crawford?

I also find the # of cards and the varieties (short prints, etc) impossible to follow. That being said, I’ve been buying some stuff and find it addicting even if my ROI is awful.
The safe bet is against any prospect becoming a Hall of Famer.

Franco by any measure should be very good. But is he as good as Tatis Jr, Vlad Jr, or Alex Gordon?

And how many 1/1 Francos will there be this year? Let alone 1/5s, 25s, or 100s.

This all even ignores the fact that there’s a significant chance there’s no season.
 

Traut

lost his degree
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I'll get into this more in depth when I'm not hammered (PC Friars won the Big East baby). Bottom line, nobody spending real money right now is "investing" for the long haul. This is all short term gambling right now.
This is all you need to say. Makes total sense. These are like scratch tickets with a pump and dump element.

So there are tranches of people here:

1. Guy who buys a hobby box $250;
2. Guy who buys a slot in the opening of a case 15k;
3. Guy who buys from guy 1 and 2 for lots of money 100k+ on an individual card betting that Franco becomes Trout.

Or some variations on this.
 
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Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
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Apr 12, 2005
37,370
This is all you need to say. Makes total sense. These are like scratch tickets with a pump and dump element.

So there are tranches of people here:

1. Guy who buys a hobby box $250;
2. Guy who buys a slot in the opening of a case 15k;
3. Guy who buys from guy 1 and 2 for lots of money 100k+ on an individual card betting that Franco becomes Trout.

Or some variations on this.
Yeah, I guess sort of. Most "collectors" are folks buying things like Series 1 or the like. A lot of whom are like we were when we were kids, hoping to get players you like, or maybe completing a set (without buying the set). Most folks involved in breaks are spending a TON of money. For example, if you watch the breaks on Youtube of say, Firehandcards, you'll see the same names in almost every break. Folks are spending 20k a day on breaks, looking for massive hits, and then immediately flipping them for a profit. It is truly gambling. Folks buying a case of 2020 National Treasures for $28,000 are not "collectors." https://www.ebay.com/itm/115233747624?epid=3045814158&hash=item1ad47772a8:g:YlEAAOSwCaJh-u4U

They are hoping to hit a Burrow or Herbert RPA that they can flip for, oh, north of $125,000.00 (numbered to /20):

https://www.ebay.com/itm/363732473844?hash=item54b02517f4:g:ZAwAAOSwT9RiDqoq

The guy who buys that card, IMO, is the collector. Unless they have another buyer waiting, or they think it'll grade out as a gem mint 9 or 10, and then they can flip it for more. Years ago, there were rabid collectors of certain players. There was one guy known all over the industry that would buy every Andres Galarraga he could get his hands on, which drove the price of those cards way, way higher than they should have otherwise gone. There was another guy who bought any Carlton Fisk he could get if the number was 27 or 72 (so, say 27/99 or 72/99). Knowing those guys existed, I would buy teams in breaks that I knew had their cards, because I knew the team was underpriced due to the one-man market those buyers created. There was another guy that would immediately reach out anytime you listed a 1/1 on Ebay to buy them, and he bought dozens from me. He probably made millions because he was buying 1/1's before the market exploded, and thus, likely made a mint, but the guy buying the Big Cat cards or Fisk cards were keeping them.

Anyone buying boxes of Flawless, or Eminence or Transcendant or National Treasures is gambling, and hoping to hit a big one. They are buying the boxes, and then immediately selling online each card, and hoping to break even or profit, and then re-investing. Some folks buying Prizm or Bowman Chrome are collectors, and some are investors and some are speculators. I've got millions of cards, some I sell, some I sit on (what's the point of selling a rookie auto from Bowman Chrome for a 5th rounder for like $25, when if the guy hits, I can get exponentially more someday, and my downside is $20). I have every card I've ever wanted in my collection, but my son has lost all interest, so at this point, I'll probably keep selling and not buying (unless it's something fun like a SoSH break), but there are people online every day spending hundreds of thousands a week, and then flipping them on Ebay the day after they receive them. Some are smart, but most are getting burned. There are guys buying the Hornets in every break they can find online looking for Lamelo Ball cards. If they get lucky, they'll kill it, if they catch a run of 10-20 breaks in a row with no Ball cards, they'll probably go bankrupt. Gambling.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Jan 13, 2021
5,250
It’s pretty wild, it definitely has shades of day trading mixed in with the sub-prime mortgage crisis (with surely some of the people involved in all). I look forward to the 30 for 30 or movie about this in a few years.
 

bradcote

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SoSH Member
Jul 27, 2005
2,849
Keepin' it real in Maine
I was talking about this with my friend the other day. With a lot of the products that many people can afford (such as Topps Base), they are jacking up print runs. Not only does this bring down the odds you get a specialty card, but it is setting up another era of "junk wax" where people are grading cards that aren't really worth that much. Look at Luis Robert...there are 33,740 Grade 9 or 10 2020 Topps PSA slabs out there...how valuable can that card be? (That isn't including SGC, Beckett, and all of the other grading companies that have popped up.)

Also, prices for everything is INSANE. In their greed, card companies are pricing out the normal collector. I used to love to purchase an occasional blaster or hanger, but I can't afford what they go for anymore. I don't think that I am really their target market anymore...I think they are shooting for people who are gamblers/speculators (as mentioned above) or think that modern cards are investments.

I really feel that the market is going to crash at some point and will crash hard. My father-in-law sells cards on eBay and I have told him that if he was smart, he would sell what he has as quickly as possible before interest in the hobby wanes.
 

Traut

lost his degree
Lifetime Member
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Jul 20, 2005
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Yeah, I guess sort of. Most "collectors" are folks buying things like Series 1 or the like. A lot of whom are like we were when we were kids, hoping to get players you like, or maybe completing a set (without buying the set). Most folks involved in breaks are spending a TON of money. For example, if you watch the breaks on Youtube of say, Firehandcards, you'll see the same names in almost every break. Folks are spending 20k a day on breaks, looking for massive hits, and then immediately flipping them for a profit. It is truly gambling. Folks buying a case of 2020 National Treasures for $28,000 are not "collectors." https://www.ebay.com/itm/115233747624?epid=3045814158&hash=item1ad47772a8:g:YlEAAOSwCaJh-u4U

They are hoping to hit a Burrow or Herbert RPA that they can flip for, oh, north of $125,000.00 (numbered to /20):

https://www.ebay.com/itm/363732473844?hash=item54b02517f4:g:ZAwAAOSwT9RiDqoq

The guy who buys that card, IMO, is the collector. Unless they have another buyer waiting, or they think it'll grade out as a gem mint 9 or 10, and then they can flip it for more. Years ago, there were rabid collectors of certain players. There was one guy known all over the industry that would buy every Andres Galarraga he could get his hands on, which drove the price of those cards way, way higher than they should have otherwise gone. There was another guy who bought any Carlton Fisk he could get if the number was 27 or 72 (so, say 27/99 or 72/99). Knowing those guys existed, I would buy teams in breaks that I knew had their cards, because I knew the team was underpriced due to the one-man market those buyers created. There was another guy that would immediately reach out anytime you listed a 1/1 on Ebay to buy them, and he bought dozens from me. He probably made millions because he was buying 1/1's before the market exploded, and thus, likely made a mint, but the guy buying the Big Cat cards or Fisk cards were keeping them.

Anyone buying boxes of Flawless, or Eminence or Transcendant or National Treasures is gambling, and hoping to hit a big one. They are buying the boxes, and then immediately selling online each card, and hoping to break even or profit, and then re-investing. Some folks buying Prizm or Bowman Chrome are collectors, and some are investors and some are speculators. I've got millions of cards, some I sell, some I sit on (what's the point of selling a rookie auto from Bowman Chrome for a 5th rounder for like $25, when if the guy hits, I can get exponentially more someday, and my downside is $20). I have every card I've ever wanted in my collection, but my son has lost all interest, so at this point, I'll probably keep selling and not buying (unless it's something fun like a SoSH break), but there are people online every day spending hundreds of thousands a week, and then flipping them on Ebay the day after they receive them. Some are smart, but most are getting burned. There are guys buying the Hornets in every break they can find online looking for Lamelo Ball cards. If they get lucky, they'll kill it, if they catch a run of 10-20 breaks in a row with no Ball cards, they'll probably go bankrupt. Gambling.
Thank you. This is fascinating and somewhat insane.

I guess I can relate to the Galarraga guy. All I buy is Pedro and Ortiz PSA10s and random 1/5s kind of thing. Mainly because I love those guys. My son loves trolling eBay for those cards. And it is something I can leave to him. I think the most expensive Ortiz rookie that I've come across is $2500. Great Pedro ones are all sub $200.
 
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Fishercat

Svelte and sexy!
SoSH Member
May 18, 2007
7,176
Manchester, N.H.
I was talking about this with my friend the other day. With a lot of the products that many people can afford (such as Topps Base), they are jacking up print runs. Not only does this bring down the odds you get a specialty card, but it is setting up another era of "junk wax" where people are grading cards that aren't really worth that much. Look at Luis Robert...there are 33,740 Grade 9 or 10 2020 Topps PSA slabs out there...how valuable can that card be? (That isn't including SGC, Beckett, and all of the other grading companies that have popped up.)

Also, prices for everything is INSANE. In their greed, card companies are pricing out the normal collector. I used to love to purchase an occasional blaster or hanger, but I can't afford what they go for anymore. I don't think that I am really their target market anymore...I think they are shooting for people who are gamblers/speculators (as mentioned above) or think that modern cards are investments.

I really feel that the market is going to crash at some point and will crash hard. My father-in-law sells cards on eBay and I have told him that if he was smart, he would sell what he has as quickly as possible before interest in the hobby wanes.
I think there are some differences from the prior junk wax era but that the overall conclusions are pretty sound

Grading base anything, to me, seems like an absolutely foolish game for the reasons you describe. Like Wander Franco is this year's belle of the ball. From what I'm seeing most hobby boxes are getting a base Franco, and when complete sets hit Target or Walmart those will have them. To your point on Robert, the difference between ungraded and PSA10 is about $20 or so right now, or 40% of what the slab cost to get on the cheapest rate. And print runs are WAY up this year. There will be Wanders for everyone.

The value I think most collectors see longer term are those cards with harder number limits: variations, numbered cards, autos, etc. That is a difference from the prior junk wax era, but they've found a great way to dilute that by having so many different parallels. In Topps 2022, there are SEVENTEEN parallels and that's excluding players who have Short Print / Super Short Print / Ultra Short Print variations. To some people they think that means those parallels will hold value. To me? I feel like it just gives the buyers looking for a limited parallel more options to choose from, lowering prices on most of them. I would probably expect the insanely low numbered to hold, but I wonder how higher numbered cards will fare over time.

I do think the pricing overall is nuts. Panini in particular is insane, but Topps is getting there. Like, keeping to flagship which should be the most affordable product out there. $130-$140 a box of 24 hobby packs. So if you buy the whole box, that's still between 5-6 dollars a pack for flagship. I saw single hobby packs at Newbury Comics for $9 per (they always run WAY high). And what are you likely to get from that? Well, a lot of the set, one auto or relic card, and then you hope? Maybe a short print if you really beat the odds (given they're 1:112 packs probably not). Even as of 2019, you could probably get 4-5 numbered parallels per box. Now? Finding one is kind of a win (the odds of a Gold /2022 for any player is 1:38 and you get 24 packs). It's not just pricing going up but rather value going down in combination with it.

At this point, the last refuge is probably grabbing hangers/blasters at retail prices if you can find them or buying the singles you want, let other people have the gamble. And at some point, not enough people are going to want this stuff overall.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Jan 13, 2021
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What is the point of grading a brand new card, that isn’t worth all that much? It’s not as if having a gem mint 2022 card is incredibly unique
 

Oil Can Dan

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One of the things I don’t understand is what’s the market going to be for all these one-of-ones down the line? Like, aren’t there 40+ different one-of-one cards of Mahomes last year? Who’s paying more than current value for those in 11 years or whatever?
 

santadevil

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Aug 1, 2006
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This is why I got out of cards a few years back. I could easily spend (and did one year) thousands a year buying, hoping for that one awesome card, but the rest are taking up space

I like going through and getting the base set done (not guaranteed), hoping for a couple good cards, autos or otherwise

After I pulled an Auto Trout (sticker unfortunately), a couple years it was both amazing and I also had the realization hit that I wasn't ever going to get that high of a HOLY SHIT moment again

I may return in the future and do a Hobby Jumbo box each year at some point down the road, but with Fanatics being the exclusive by the time I get there, I likely won't, unless they can prove their quality
 

Deathofthebambino

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Apr 12, 2005
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Thank you. This is fascinating and somewhat insane.

I guess I can relate to the Galarraga guy. All I buy is Pedro and Ortiz PSA10s and random 1/5s kind of thing. Mainly because I love those guys. My son loves trolling eBay for those cards. And it is something I can leave to him. I think the most expensive Ortiz rookie that I've come across is $2500. Great Pedro ones are all sub $200.
This Pedro 1/1 from 2021 Dynasty with the MLB Logo from his jersey sold for $1,450.00 last month. It would have gone much higher if he wasn't in a Phillies uni. It's a different world in the higher end products. A box of Dynasty contains ONE Card, and the going rate right now is $700-$750.

49810

People buying those boxes, or getting into breaks for a 5 box case and buying say, the Red Sox for $250 or whatever are just gambling. Or they get into a random team break. But when you hit, you hit big. The same card for Ronald Acuna Jr. just sold for over 10k, the Joe Mauer got 10k, a Trout #'d to /5 got 7k, Griffey Jr.. to /5 went for 5k, someone stole the Ichiro logoman for 3k, IMO.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Apr 12, 2005
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Not sure if it was posted here yet, but ebay is making all cards over $500 be sent to and inspected by a third party for quality control.
Not all cards. It doesn't apply to the list below, which includes graded cards, autographed cards, patch cards, etc. It's literally ungraded, base cards, which eliminates a huge portion of the cards over $500.00:

The following items are not eligible for Authenticity Guarantee:

  • Items whose listings do not bear the Authenticity Guarantee blue checkmark badge
  • Items listed in categories not named above
  • Graded cards
  • Sets, lots, kits, decks, boxes, and packs of two or more cards
  • Miscategorized items, e.g., other types of cards listed in eligible categories
  • Cards that contain additional items, embellishments, or memorabilia, such as patches, jersey, swatch, equipment, props, relics, costumes, or wardrobe cards.
  • Autographed cards
  • Items purchased using an offline payment method
  • Listings that offer local pickup
  • 1980’s Star Company Basketball Cards
  • Items shipped to P.O. Boxes
  • Items shipped to or from unincorporated territories (incl. Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands)
Ineligible items will not be authenticated.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Apr 12, 2005
37,370
One of the things I don’t understand is what’s the market going to be for all these one-of-ones down the line? Like, aren’t there 40+ different one-of-one cards of Mahomes last year? Who’s paying more than current value for those in 11 years or whatever?
Nobody, the market will go down as years go by, maybe not that quickly if Mahomes keeps being MAHOMES. For example, Brady's been playing 22 years, and his cards are worth more now than ever before. But, for most athletes not named Mahomes or Rodgers or Brady, etc., they will inevitably go down in value once they retire and people want to bet on the youngsters. That's why guys like Pedro or Ortiz aren't selling for as much as Acuna or Juan Soto, etc. right now.
 

Traut

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Jul 20, 2005
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This Pedro 1/1 from 2021 Dynasty with the MLB Logo from his jersey sold for $1,450.00 last month. It would have gone much higher if he wasn't in a Phillies uni. It's a different world in the higher end products. A box of Dynasty contains ONE Card, and the going rate right now is $700-$750.

View attachment 49810

People buying those boxes, or getting into breaks for a 5 box case and buying say, the Red Sox for $250 or whatever are just gambling. Or they get into a random team break. But when you hit, you hit big. The same card for Ronald Acuna Jr. just sold for over 10k, the Joe Mauer got 10k, a Trout #'d to /5 got 7k, Griffey Jr.. to /5 went for 5k, someone stole the Ichiro logoman for 3k, IMO.
For sure there are expensive Pedro cards it is just all of his rookie and pre-rookie 10s are sub $200. Which makes it possible for my son to save his allowance for a few weeks to buy one.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Apr 12, 2005
37,370
I think there are some differences from the prior junk wax era but that the overall conclusions are pretty sound

Grading base anything, to me, seems like an absolutely foolish game for the reasons you describe. Like Wander Franco is this year's belle of the ball. From what I'm seeing most hobby boxes are getting a base Franco, and when complete sets hit Target or Walmart those will have them. To your point on Robert, the difference between ungraded and PSA10 is about $20 or so right now, or 40% of what the slab cost to get on the cheapest rate. And print runs are WAY up this year. There will be Wanders for everyone.

The value I think most collectors see longer term are those cards with harder number limits: variations, numbered cards, autos, etc. That is a difference from the prior junk wax era, but they've found a great way to dilute that by having so many different parallels. In Topps 2022, there are SEVENTEEN parallels and that's excluding players who have Short Print / Super Short Print / Ultra Short Print variations. To some people they think that means those parallels will hold value. To me? I feel like it just gives the buyers looking for a limited parallel more options to choose from, lowering prices on most of them. I would probably expect the insanely low numbered to hold, but I wonder how higher numbered cards will fare over time.

I do think the pricing overall is nuts. Panini in particular is insane, but Topps is getting there. Like, keeping to flagship which should be the most affordable product out there. $130-$140 a box of 24 hobby packs. So if you buy the whole box, that's still between 5-6 dollars a pack for flagship. I saw single hobby packs at Newbury Comics for $9 per (they always run WAY high). And what are you likely to get from that? Well, a lot of the set, one auto or relic card, and then you hope? Maybe a short print if you really beat the odds (given they're 1:112 packs probably not). Even as of 2019, you could probably get 4-5 numbered parallels per box. Now? Finding one is kind of a win (the odds of a Gold /2022 for any player is 1:38 and you get 24 packs). It's not just pricing going up but rather value going down in combination with it.

At this point, the last refuge is probably grabbing hangers/blasters at retail prices if you can find them or buying the singles you want, let other people have the gamble. And at some point, not enough people are going to want this stuff overall.
People also need to understand if you are buying hangars or blasters at retail stores, you have almost zero chance of hitting some of the big cards. The big ones are coming out in the FOTL ("First off the line" limited edition runs) and the hobby boxes (which you'll only find via breaks, hobby shops and on Ebay from secondary sellers). If Newbury Comics is selling a 9$ pack that guarantees an auto, I would run there right now and buy every single thing they have in stock. They don't even usually have boxes with guaranteed autos, whereas hobby boxes always do.

Grading base cards is the only way to really sell vintage cards, and by vintage, I mean anything pre like 1994. The print runs before that were so massive, that there are so many cards in the world, the only way to differentiate is via grading.

Most base cards you see graded now are being done by resellers. They are also some of the biggest buyers of cards. For example, "Super Break" is a "sports card company," but what they do is go on Ebay, buy a bunch of cards, some graded some not, they'll get some graded, etc., and then they repackage them and sell them in boxes of 2-3 cards. They guarantee a Jordan rookie or whatever is in one of the boxes they release, but other than that one box, they are making a profit on almost every other box they sell. This is their website: https://www.superbreaksports.com/

For example, they recently released their 2021 Dimes basketball product, in which every card is a graded 10. Now, you could get a gem mint 10 Luka rookie, but you could also get a card worth $50. The box costs $200. Here is that product: https://www.superbreaksports.com/pages/2021-dimes-basketball
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
37,370
That's all you should be doing. That card is fantastic, and I think it's a great price. I leaned about cards and got into it with my father. My son got into it for a while, and then found the XBox, so that was the end of that. I'm a gambler by nature though, so I got into breaks and everything else for years, did pretty well, and am still sitting on a ton of stuff that if I get motivated, I'll sell here and there. But for the 2-3 years my son did it together, it was a blast.

I've also got a very large memorabilia collection too, which frankly, I'll probably hang onto forever, but I definitely need to move some cards. If Ebay would allow me to show stuff I sold years ago, I'd post some photos for you guys. I've had 1/1 Trouts, RPA's for Lebron in his high school uni, Dak Prescott's 1/1 from Flawless, Gold Tatum auto from Prizm /10, Gretzky and Crosby short print autos from Upper Deck the Cup, Mahomes rookie 1/1's and on and on and on....A lot of stuff I wish I had held onto 4-5 years ago though.
 

Traut

lost his degree
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
12,315
My Desk
It’s a business lesson for him.

He scours cards on ebay for Pedro and Ortiz. Looks up sold prices. Checks them against PSA population and makes offers.

I tell him in life that if I’m investing in anything it is something that I understand. I buy commercial real estate and not crypto. I bet large sums of money on plaintiff’s cases and nothing on baseball cards.

We talk about differences in value. For example a PSA 9 Pedro Bowman rookie at my local store retails for $25. On eBay the PSA 10 is between $150-$180.

We talk about how on card autos are more than stickers and why that is so.

We bought the cracked case Pedro and talked about how much value we could add simply by sending it to PSA to be re-cased. And how a lot of things in the world are like this.

And how maybe right now pre-rookies are undervalued and some day the market could shift and our minor league Pedros could be very desirable.

We have no intention of selling these cards but acquiring them provides some lessons to him.
 
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Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
37,370
It’s a business lesson for him.

He scours cards on ebay for Pedro and Ortiz. Looks up sold prices. Checks them against PSA population and makes offers.

I tell him in life that if I’m investing in anything it is something that I understand. I buy commercial real estate and not crypto. I bet large sums of money on plaintiff’s cases and nothing on baseball cards.

We talk about differences in value. For example a PSA 9 Pedro Bowman rookie at my local store retails for $25. On eBay the PSA 10 is between $150-$180.

We talk about how on card autos are more than stickers and why that is so.

We bought the cracked case Pedro and talked about how much value we could add simply by sending it to PSA to be re-cased. And how a lot of things in the world are like this.

And how maybe right now pre-rookies are undervalued and some day the market could shift and our minor league Pedros could be very desirable.

We have no intention of selling these cards but acquiring them provides some lessons to him.
That is completely awesome, bud. You're son is lucky to have you, and you're lucky he wants to learn from you. I wish my son was still interested, but can't force that kind of stuff on them. He loves playing sports and gaming/coding (neither of which I know shit about), but he is starting to learn about the stock market. He has a Greenlight card (basically a debit card for kids) that we deposit his allowance, etc. into, and he can use half of it for spending and the other half, he has to invest. We have to approve any investments (the app is set up that way), so we tell him to do the research on products he understands, and then tell us why he thinks it's a good investment. He's actually done really well investing in stuff, mostly blue chip stuff, but last week, he bought Exxon, because he thought gas was going up, etc. He's starting to get really into that, but more importantly, he's learning the value of a dollar, because it's his money he's investing...
 

Tim Salmon

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 24, 2005
2,922
Someone pulled the Wander Franco 1/1 card
What effect, if any, will taking this golden ticket out of play have on all the 2022 Topps eBay breaks that are being sold to the same group of prospectors? Was the hope of pulling a 1/1 Wander unicorn driving some of the obscene bids? Or were these mostly card shop owners who saw a profit in pulling 20 Wander base cards, maybe a short print or two, and hoping that half came back with a PSA 10 grade?
 

Fishercat

Svelte and sexy!
SoSH Member
May 18, 2007
7,176
Manchester, N.H.
What effect, if any, will taking this golden ticket out of play have on all the 2022 Topps eBay breaks that are being sold to the same group of prospectors? Was the hope of pulling a 1/1 Wander unicorn driving some of the obscene bids? Or were these mostly card shop owners who saw a profit in pulling 20 Wander base cards, maybe a short print or two, and hoping that half came back with a PSA 10 grade?
I think it moves the needle to some extent. Not an expert on this, but my impression is that people Wander hunting are doing it for short-term gains and likely aiming for parallels - the base are moving but the sheer number of them and ungradeds going for like 10-15 on Ebay isn't making up for these slots valuable in the long run. Most I imagine would know the 1/1 is a complete absurd long-shot but it's also likely the most expensive card in the set, so losing that top prize lottery ticket is going to take it down. We've also seen some of the other biggest hits pulled and gone to market (2 of the #10 acetates, several 1/1s (sketch, autos, etc.), a decent number of the /25 and /71) - basically the cards that make the whole thing back and then some.

I still think the prices will be kind of dumb on these but not having those biggest chase cards feels like it has to hurt the overall value of the slot...if the buyer knows it.